Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

Market Outlook
June 4, 2012
Dealers Diary
The domestic markets are expected to open in the red, tracing negative opening in
most of the Asian bourses and the SGX Nifty, after a U.S. payrolls report showing
addition of fewer jobs to the worlds largest economy than the most pessimistic
forecast, added to the concerns regarding slowing global economy.
Domestic Indices
Globally, US markets ended sharply in the red on Friday. Wall Street sell-off came
on account of the release of the above mentioned report from the Labor
department showing much weaker than expected job growth in the month of May.
The European markets also finished to the downside on Friday, dragged lower by
weak economic results across the globe. A weaker than expected manufacturing
report from China proved to be a precursor to several weaker than expected
manufacturing reports from countries across Europe. However, the disappointing
U.S. employment report appears to have had the largest impact on investors.
Indian shares fell sharply on Friday, weighed down by tepid global cues and rupee
weakness amid worries about slowing domestic growth. A number of investment
banks cut India's FY2013 GDP growth estimates after data yesterday showed that
India's economic growth had slowed to 5.3% in the 4QFY2012, the lowest in nine
years.
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 16,042 / 4,866 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 16,150 16,334 / 4,900 4,959 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
16,042 / 4,866 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
15,857 15,749 / 4,807 4,773 levels
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
(1.6) (253.4) 15,965
Nifty
(1.7)
(82.7)
4,842
MID CAP
(1.5)
(86.3)
5,822
SMALL CAP
(1.2)
(76.6)
6,194
BSE HC
(1.3)
(88.4)
6,557
BSE PSU
(1.4)
(95.7)
6,664
BANKEX
(1.8) (199.9) 10,685
AUTO
(2.2) (192.7)
8,680
METAL
(1.7) (171.6)
9,935
OIL & GAS
(2.1) (160.2)
7,428
BSE IT
(2.0) (113.8)
5,552
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Dow Jones
(2.2) (274.9) 12,119
NASDAQ
(2.8)
(79.9)
2,747
FTSE
(1.1)
(60.7)
5,260
Nikkei
(1.2) (102.5)
8,440
Hang Seng
(0.4)
(71.2) 18,558
Straits Times
(1.0)
(26.8)
2,746
0.1
1.2
2,373
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
0.2
0.1
$42.2
Shanghai Com
Indian ADRs
INFY
WIT
(2.6)
(0.2)
$8.4
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
IBN
(0.6)
(0.2)
$28.0
SENSEX
15,749
15,857
16,042
16,150
16,334
HDB
(1.4)
(0.4)
$27.6
NIFTY
4,773
4,807
4,866
4,900
4,959
News Analysis
Cement Dispatches May 2012

CRISIL to acquire U.K.-based Coalition Development Co. for `250cr
MphasiS 2QFY2012 Result Review
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
826
356
1,869
1,078
115
70
Declines
Unchanged
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Volumes (` cr)
Net Inflows (May 31, 2012)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
BSE
1,874
FII
8,325
6,960
1,365
477
43,938
NSE
8,947
400
857
(457)
(366)
(6,467)
MFs
FII Derivatives (June 01, 2012)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
1,128
1,624
(496)
7,144
Stock Futures
1,338
1,215
123
19,755
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
Indraprastha Gas
Neyveli Lignite
Gujarat State Pet
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
Price (`)
chg (%)
249
28.7
Company
Adani Enter
240
(8.2)
85
14.8
Pantaloon Retl
139
(7.8)
71
11.2
JSW ENERGY
42
(6.6)
Petronet LNG
139
9.0
IVRCL LTD
38
(6.4)
Amtek Auto
107
6.6
Asian Paints
3,777
(6.4)
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
June 4, 2012
Cement Dispatches May 2012

For May 2012, ACC reported moderate 3% yoy growth in its dispatches to 2.02mn
tonnes (mt). However, Ambuja Cements (Ambuja) dispatches grew strongly by
12.1% yoy to 1.94mt in May 2012, aided by strong demand scenario in the
companys primary markets in the northern region. UltraTech Cements also posted
healthy 10.6% yoy growth in its dispatches to 3.6mt. We continue to remain
Neutral on ACC, Ambuja and UltraTech Cement as we believe they are fairly
priced at current levels.
CRISIL to acquire U.K.-based Coalition Development Co. for `250cr

CRISIL has entered into an agreement to acquire a 100% stake in U.K.-based
research and analytic firm, Coalition Development Co. (Coalition) and its
subsidiaries.
Coalition provides high-end analytics services mainly to leading global investment
banks. The company deploys unique proprietary analytics on market size
dynamics, revenue opportunities and human capital. Coalition reported revenue of
GBP9mn (`77cr) in FY2011. CRISILs revenue stood at `827cr at the end of
CY2011. CRISIL will be reporting Coalitions revenue from the first year itself,
directly fueling nearly 10%+ growth in its top line.
CRISIL will take over Coalition for a sum of GBP29mn (`250cr), close to 3.2x its
FY2011 revenue. CRISIL has been growing its global research and analytics
segment rapidly. Coalitions cutting-edge capabilities and in-depth understanding
of the workings of financial markets and strong relation with clients will further
help CRISILs global research and analytics segment to widen its service offerings
and add new clients.
Coalition has offices in New York, London, Singapore and Mumbai. CRISILs
global research and analytics segment today is one of the leading high-end
research providers globally and is one of the worlds largest equity and fixed
income research providers. This acquisition will help CRISIL to fuel growth of its
global research and analytics segment going ahead. We continue to maintain our
Neutral recommendation on the stock.
Result Review
MphasiS 2QFY2012 (CMP: `371, TP: Under Review)
MphasiS announced its 2QFY2012 numbers. The company underperformed our
expectations on the revenue front; however, its numbers came in-line with our
expectations on the operating and net profit fronts. USD revenue came in at
US$261mn, down 1.7% qoq, due to softness in developed markets, which led to
lower discretionary spending and delays in decision making. In INR terms, revenue
came in at ```1,329cr, down 2.8% qoq. The companys major concern of billing
rate again cropped up in this quarter as onsite billing rate of ITO business
declined to US$63/hr vs. US$67/hr, which management indicated was due to
Euro depreciation against USD and change in pyramid mix. The company again
Market Outlook
June 4, 2012
witnessed headcount reduction in its application as well as ITO business, which led
to a considerable increase in the respective utilization levels.
EBITDA margin of the company improved by 123bp qoq to 19.7%, aided by
savings on the employee expenses front. The companys PAT for the quarter came
in at `189cr. The stock is currently under review.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
5,904
18.3
811
38.7
14.9
9.6
1.4
4.6
0.9
FY2014E
6,320
17.9
864
41.2
113.7
8.9
1.2
3.9
0.7
Economic and Political News
Manufacturing sector activity keeps pace in May: survey

PM sets up mechanism to fast track project implementation
Planning Commission may lower growth target to 8% for 12th-Plan period
Corporate News
NMDC to start coal production by 2014

Maruti to spend `4,000cr on new Gujarat car plant
Hyundai goes back to drawing board for India diesel plant
Jindal Stainless seeks to reschedule `9,000cr debt
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Market Outlook
June 04, 2012
Global economic events release calendar

Date
Country
Event Description
Jun 5 2012 12:00AM
Germany
PMI Services
Jun 6 2012 12:00AM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
Euro Zone
ECB announces interest rates
US
Initial Jobless claims
UK
BOE Announces rates
China
China
Jun 7 2012 12:00AM
Jun 9 2012 12:00AM
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
Value
May-12
52.20
52.20
% Change
Mar-12
--
--
May-12
1.00
1.00
Thousands
26-May-12
383.00
380.00
% Ratio
May-12
0.50
0.50
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Apr-12
9.30
9.80
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Apr-12
3.40
3.20
Jun 10 2012 12:00AM China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Apr-12
4.90
7.00
Jun 12 2012 12:00AM India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Mar-12
(3.50)
--
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Mar-12
(2.60)
--
Jun 13 2012 12:00AM US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Apr-12
(0.20)
(0.60)
Jun 14 2012 12:00AM US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Apr-12
--
(0.20)
Apr-12
2.60
--
% Change
Apr-12
7.23
--
Apr-12
1.09
--
UK
Euro Zone
Jun 15 2012 12:00AM US
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

Monthly Wholesale Prices
YoY%
Industrial Production
Jun 18 2012 12:00AM India
RBI Repo rate
8.00
--
India
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
4.75
--
India
RBI Reverse Repo rate
7.00
--
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Apr-12
3.00
--
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Apr-12
717.00
--
US
Building permits
Thousands
Apr-12
723.00
--
Jobless claims change
% Change
Apr-12
(13.70)
--
Apr-12
0.25
--
India
Jun 19 2012 12:00AM UK
Jun 20 2012 12:00AM UK

US
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
FOMC rate decision
Market Strategy
June 04, 2012
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
(%)
4.0
4.1
3.4
2.7
2.5
(6.0)
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
Mfg. PMI
60.0
9.6
9.5
9.4
9.8
10.0
9.9
7.7
8.0
Mar-12
Services PMI
58.0
9.5
6.9
7.4
6.9
7.2
56.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
Repo rate
(%)
9.00
90
75
Reverse Repo rate
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
48.0
Sep-11
0.0
Aug-11
50.0
Jul-11
2.0
Jun-11
52.0
May-11
4.0
Jun-11
54.0
6.0
May-11
10.0
(3.5)
(5.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
12.0
Feb-12
(4.0)
Jan-12
1.1
Dec-11
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
(2.0)
4QFY10
3.0
3QFY10
2QFY10
2.0
4.0
1QFY10
5.0
4QFY09
6.0
3.7
Nov-11
5.3
6.2
5.3
6.0
6.1
5.9
Oct-11
6.0
8.0
6.7
Sep-11
7.0
7.6
7.4
9.5
10.0
8.0
Aug-11
7.5
8.0
8.2
Jul-11
8.5
9.0
12.0
9.2
Jun-11
9.4
May-11
9.8
Apr-11
(%)
10.0
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
CRR
8.00
8.00
60
7.00
45
30
6.00
4.75
5.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
4.00
May-11
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
Apr-11
May-12
15
(15)
7.00
Market Outlook
June 04, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
123
2,390
1,432
1,647
14.7
14.7
7.0
8.0
17.6
15.4
3.7
3.2
22.8
22.3
1.7
1.4
United Phosphorus
Buy
108
183
4,976
8,191
8,764
16.5
16.5
17.1
18.3
6.3
5.9
1.0
0.9
17.5
16.2
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
296
345
2,528
2,691
3,032
15.6
15.5
29.4
32.8
10.1
9.0
2.4
1.9
26.5
23.6
0.9
0.8
Apollo Tyres
Buy
81
100
4,093
13,699
15,184
10.5
10.2
12.1
13.3
6.7
6.1
1.2
1.0
19.7
18.4
0.5
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Buy
25
33
6,625
14,798
16,687
9.6
9.6
2.4
3.0
10.3
8.4
2.1
1.8
14.8
16.5
0.5
0.4
Automotive Axle
Accumulate
450
514
680
1,211
1,387
12.1
11.7
50.3
57.1
9.0
7.9
2.3
1.8
27.8
25.7
0.6
0.5
Bajaj Auto
Buy
1,500
1,835
43,391
22,118
24,889
19.0
18.6
115.7
126.5
13.0
11.9
5.2
4.1
45.0
38.9
1.6
1.3
Bharat Forge
Buy
302
372
7,029
7,173
7,998
16.3
16.5
22.3
26.6
13.5
11.4
2.6
2.2
21.0
21.0
1.1
0.9
Bosch India
Accumulate
8,708
9,429
27,341
9,390
10,716
19.5
19.1
420.2
471.4
20.7
18.5
4.8
4.0
23.3
21.8
2.6
2.2
CEAT
Buy
90
164
307
5,067
5,631
8.0
7.6
39.4
41.0
2.3
2.2
0.4
0.3
18.8
16.5
0.3
0.3
Exide Industries
Buy
117
146
9,907
5,787
6,595
15.5
17.0
7.1
9.0
16.4
13.0
2.9
2.5
18.6
20.3
1.4
1.1
FAG Bearings
Accumulate
1,500
1,594
2,493
1,531
1,748
18.8
18.5
118.0
132.8
12.7
11.3
2.8
2.3
24.0
21.9
1.4
1.1
Hero Motocorp
Buy
1,822
2,280
36,381
26,106
29,296
15.0
15.2
140.3
148.1
13.0
12.3
6.1
4.7
54.8
43.3
1.1
0.8
JK Tyre
Buy
76
113
311
8,058
9,025
5.4
5.5
24.8
32.2
3.1
2.4
0.3
0.3
11.4
13.2
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
645
793
39,592
34,740
39,263
10.7
11.0
44.9
51.7
14.4
12.5
2.6
2.2
18.9
19.1
0.8
0.7
Maruti
Buy
1,074
1,510
31,026
42,683
48,736
7.1
7.5
86.6
100.6
12.4
10.7
1.8
1.5
15.3
15.5
0.5
0.4
Motherson Sumi
Buy
160
216
6,200
11,167
12,516
9.5
10.0
11.3
14.4
14.1
11.1
3.1
2.5
23.3
24.7
0.6
0.6
Subros
Neutral
32
193
1,225
1,393
8.5
8.2
4.2
5.0
7.7
6.5
0.8
0.8
10.3
11.8
0.4
0.3
Tata Motors
Buy
225
312
59,832 191,183 210,301
12.8
12.8
39.4
43.6
5.7
5.1
2.0
1.6
40.4
34.3
0.4
0.4
TVS Motor
Buy
33
55
1,577
7,982
8,816
6.4
6.3
5.0
5.6
6.6
6.0
1.2
1.0
18.9
18.2
0.2
0.2
ABB*
Sell
713
498
15,105
8,760
10,023
6.4
6.4
18.2
20.7
39.1
34.4
5.3
4.7
14.4
14.6
1.7
1.5
BGR Energy
Neutral
276
1,994
4,170
5,396
11.5
10.4
27.2
30.4
10.2
9.1
1.7
1.5
17.3
17.4
1.1
1.0
BHEL
Neutral
207
50,592
46,344
46,916
18.3
18.6
23.5
24.1
8.8
8.6
1.7
1.5
21.3
18.9
1.0
0.9
Blue Star
Buy
164
221
1,470
3,250
3,551
5.9
5.9
12.4
15.8
13.2
10.4
2.7
2.3
21.2
23.8
0.5
0.4
Crompton Greaves
Buy
108
164
6,928
12,936
14,101
9.6
10.0
10.9
11.7
10.0
9.2
1.7
1.5
18.4
17.3
0.6
0.5
Jyoti Structures
Buy
38
67
315
2,622
2,801
10.6
11.0
10.9
13.4
3.5
2.9
0.4
0.4
12.7
13.9
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
50
73
1,273
6,686
7,200
7.7
7.9
10.6
12.2
4.7
4.1
0.9
0.7
25.9
24.0
0.3
0.3
LMW
Buy
1,550
2,609
1,746
2,663
3,130
12.8
12.8
185.0
217.4
8.4
7.1
1.7
1.5
21.2
21.7
0.2
0.1
Thermax
Neutral
438
5,218
5,514
5,559
8.3
8.0
29.7
28.4
14.8
15.4
2.8
2.5
20.2
16.9
0.8
0.8
Capital Goods
Market Outlook
June 04, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,127
21,158
11,018
12,663
19.9
21.2
70.7
81.2
16.0
13.9
2.8
2.5
18.0
19.0
1.6
1.4
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
148
22,781
10,035
11,504
23.5
23.8
10.1
10.6
14.6
14.0
2.9
2.6
18.5
19.4
1.9
1.5
India Cements
Neutral
75
2,293
4,423
4,906
18.2
18.8
9.9
12.7
7.6
5.9
0.6
0.6
8.6
10.5
0.8
0.7
J K Lakshmi Cements
Buy
62
79
753
1,938
2,246
19.1
20.1
14.6
16.1
4.2
3.8
0.6
0.5
13.4
13.6
0.5
0.9
Madras Cements
Neutral
138
3,276
3,444
3,786
25.5
24.9
14.6
17.1
9.5
8.1
1.4
1.2
15.6
16.0
1.6
1.3
Shree Cements
Neutral
2,365
8,240
5,465
6,249
24.3
23.7
151.5
222.1
15.6
10.7
3.8
3.2
21.6
25.8
1.2
0.9
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,457
39,940
20,116
22,655
21.3
22.5
82.1
97.5
17.8
15.0
2.8
2.4
16.8
17.4
1.9
1.8
208
273
1,094
2,014
2,293
22.4
22.4
22.6
26.7
9.2
7.8
1.0
0.9
11.4
11.9
2.4
2.7
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
14
254
2,526
2,792
5.7
6.6
1.8
2.8
7.5
4.8
0.4
0.4
5.5
8.1
0.3
0.3
Hind. Const.
Neutral
17
1,043
4,239
4,522
11.1
11.8
(1.8)
(0.8)
(9.6)
(22.0)
1.0
1.1
(9.5)
(4.7)
1.3
1.2
IRB Infra
Buy
112
166
3,722
3,821
4,582
42.3
40.2
15.0
16.9
7.5
6.6
1.1
1.0
16.1
15.8
2.6
2.4
ITNL
Buy
175
265
3,407
6,619
7,925
23.8
23.3
22.0
26.7
8.0
6.6
1.1
1.0
14.9
15.9
2.2
2.1
IVRCL Infra
Buy
38
61
1,017
5,510
6,722
8.8
9.0
2.5
4.6
15.1
8.3
0.5
0.5
3.4
5.8
0.6
0.6
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
62
98
13,088
16,017
18,359
24.4
23.5
4.2
5.0
14.7
12.3
1.2
1.2
8.8
9.7
2.1
1.9
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,135
1,553
69,520
59,559
69,089
12.1
11.5
70.8
76.5
16.0
14.8
2.4
2.1
16.1
15.3
1.3
1.1
Madhucon Proj
Buy
39
70
287
2,206
2,502
10.7
10.7
4.6
4.7
8.4
8.3
0.4
0.4
5.2
5.0
0.7
0.7
Nagarjuna Const.
Buy
30
41
757
5,453
6,169
8.1
8.5
1.6
1.9
18.0
15.3
0.3
0.3
1.8
2.1
0.6
0.7
Patel Engg.
Neutral
84
588
3,609
3,836
13.1
13.1
14.0
14.6
6.0
5.8
0.4
0.4
6.3
6.1
1.0
1.1
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
44
1,458
10,592
12,193
8.4
8.4
2.9
4.6
15.1
9.7
0.5
0.4
3.9
3.1
0.6
0.6
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
123
199
1,854
2,989
3,315
10.6
10.6
10.2
11.3
12.2
10.9
1.9
1.7
17.6
16.3
0.8
0.8
Simplex Infra
Buy
213
316
1,051
6,732
7,902
9.3
9.6
27.2
35.1
7.8
6.1
0.8
0.7
11.0
12.6
0.5
0.4
Allahabad Bank
Accumulate
128
147
6,420
7,392
8,542
3.1
3.1
38.3
42.1
3.4
3.1
0.6
0.5
18.4
17.6
Andhra Bank
Neutral
106
5,923
5,151
5,843
3.2
3.1
22.4
25.7
4.7
4.1
0.7
0.6
15.8
16.0
Axis Bank
Buy
964
1,476
39,896
16,157
19,557
3.2
3.2
116.4
139.1
8.3
6.9
1.5
1.3
20.0
20.3
Bank of Baroda
Buy
660
925
25,856
15,993
18,918
2.6
2.6
127.3
149.9
5.2
4.4
0.9
0.8
17.8
18.2
Bank of India
Buy
332
389
19,044
13,558
15,551
2.5
2.4
61.6
70.8
5.4
4.7
0.9
0.8
16.8
16.9
Bank of Maharashtra
Accumulate
Canara Bank
Buy
Central Bank
Neutral
Financials
50
53
2,945
3,580
4,050
3.2
3.2
11.5
13.1
4.3
3.8
0.7
0.6
17.4
17.2
395
493
17,516
12,061
13,906
2.3
2.3
83.1
92.7
4.8
4.3
0.8
0.7
16.7
16.4
75
5,495
6,838
7,912
2.3
2.4
13.8
20.3
5.4
3.7
0.8
0.7
10.9
14.4
Market Outlook
June 04, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
411
468
6,086
5,203
5,880
2.2
2.1
107.5
112.7
3.8
3.7
0.7
0.6
17.9
16.5
88
107
3,084
3,149
3,522
2.8
2.8
23.3
26.1
3.8
3.4
0.6
0.5
17.7
17.0
Financials
Corporation Bank
Accumulate
Dena Bank
Buy
Federal Bank
Neutral
412
7,039
2,743
3,131
3.4
3.3
49.7
57.4
8.3
7.2
1.1
1.0
14.1
14.6
HDFC
Neutral
644
95,147
7,393
8,844
3.5
3.4
31.7
37.9
20.3
17.0
4.1
3.6
34.7
31.9
HDFC Bank
Buy
491
567
115,401
21,831
27,477
4.3
4.3
28.3
35.5
17.4
13.9
3.3
2.8
20.8
22.1
ICICI Bank
Buy
782
1,174
89,845
22,209
26,512
2.8
2.8
67.9
81.1
11.5
9.6
1.4
1.3
14.7
16.0
IDBI Bank
Buy
84
113
10,713
8,004
9,589
1.9
2.0
19.9
23.9
4.2
3.5
0.6
0.5
13.8
14.9
Indian Bank
Buy
162
190
6,967
6,312
7,119
3.4
3.3
41.1
43.7
3.9
3.7
0.7
0.6
18.2
16.9
IOB
Accumulate
80
92
6,400
7,354
8,283
2.5
2.4
16.3
21.7
4.9
3.7
0.6
0.5
11.5
13.9
J & K Bank
Neutral
911
4,416
2,535
2,861
3.5
3.4
176.3
184.4
5.2
4.9
0.9
0.8
19.3
17.6
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
234
286
11,786
2,108
2,607
2.6
2.6
24.5
30.6
9.6
7.6
1.8
1.5
20.1
21.4
Oriental Bank
Accumulate
228
262
6,657
6,431
7,315
2.7
2.6
54.4
63.8
4.2
3.6
0.6
0.5
13.6
14.3
Punjab Natl.Bank
Buy
727
1,041
24,667
19,893
23,653
3.1
3.2
153.4
175.2
4.7
4.2
0.9
0.7
18.3
18.1
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
24
2,667
1,440
1,635
2.7
2.5
3.8
4.1
6.3
5.8
1.2
1.1
19.9
18.6
St Bk of India
Buy
2,026
2,469
135,967
68,311
79,649
3.6
3.6
230.4
273.4
8.8
7.4
1.4
1.2
18.2
18.8
Syndicate Bank
Buy
89
126
5,360
7,133
8,255
3.0
3.0
25.9
30.0
3.4
3.0
0.5
0.5
16.9
17.1
UCO Bank
Neutral
68
4,527
5,623
6,380
2.4
2.4
16.9
17.9
4.0
3.8
0.8
0.7
16.5
15.4
Union Bank
Buy
193
261
10,628
10,215
11,854
2.9
2.8
42.7
50.3
4.5
3.8
0.8
0.6
17.0
17.5
United Bank
Buy
59
78
2,114
3,551
4,128
2.7
2.8
18.8
22.6
3.1
2.6
0.5
0.4
15.5
16.5
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
55
2,701
2,668
3,001
2.2
2.2
10.6
12.2
5.1
4.5
0.7
0.6
13.3
13.8
Yes Bank
Buy
323
450
11,419
3,209
4,144
2.7
2.8
33.9
41.5
9.5
7.8
2.0
1.7
23.1
23.3
3,777
36,230
11,423
13,309
16.3
16.3
125.3
148.4
30.2
25.5
10.3
8.0
38.0
35.4
3.1
2.6
526
650
6,288
5,906
6,856
6.9
7.0
22.3
28.3
23.6
18.6
9.6
7.2
45.2
44.1
1.0
0.9
1,183
16,081
3,007
3,417
21.1
22.1
37.7
42.6
31.4
27.8
37.4
30.2
129.4
120.1
5.2
4.6
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
Britannia
Buy
Colgate
Neutral
Dabur India
Neutral
103
17,970
5,878
6,799
16.8
17.0
4.2
4.9
24.9
21.0
9.0
7.4
39.3
42.0
3.1
2.6
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
2,749
11,560
3,124
3,663
17.1
11.6
103.0
123.3
26.7
22.3
8.2
6.6
34.0
32.9
3.4
2.8
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
559
19,009
5,973
7,000
18.4
18.6
22.8
27.2
24.5
20.6
6.7
5.4
31.3
38.4
3.3
2.8
HUL
Neutral
419
90,567
25,350
29,309
14.3
14.4
14.1
16.4
29.7
25.6
22.2
17.3
82.7
76.2
3.4
2.9
ITC
Accumulate
234
252
182,795
29,638
34,159
35.4
35.8
9.3
10.9
25.0
21.5
8.1
6.6
35.3
33.8
5.9
5.1
Market Outlook
June 04, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
EPS ( )
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FMCG
Marico
Neutral
169
10,914
4,667
5,427
12.8
12.9
6.6
8.1
25.5
20.8
6.8
5.4
30.0
28.8
2.4
2.0
Nestle*
Neutral
4,569
44,055
8,731
10,539
21.0
21.4
119.3
147.9
38.3
30.9
23.5
16.0
73.0
61.6
5.1
4.1
Tata Global
Buy
106
136
6,533
7,011
7,712
9.7
10.0
6.0
7.1
17.8
14.8
1.6
1.6
8.9
10.2
0.8
0.7
HCL Tech
Accumulate
490
560
33,942
22,792
25,743
17.4
17.4
37.8
43.0
13.0
11.4
2.9
2.4
22.3
21.3
1.5
1.2
Hexaware
Accumulate
115
128
3,404
1,821
2,105
19.0
18.6
9.8
10.7
11.7
10.7
2.7
2.4
23.7
22.5
1.6
1.3
Infosys
Buy
2,388
2,792
137,115
37,615
42,491
31.1
30.6
158.5
174.5
15.1
13.7
3.4
2.9
22.5
20.8
3.0
2.5
Infotech Enterprises
Accumulate
168
177
1,872
1,758
1,972
17.0
16.6
16.8
18.6
10.0
9.0
1.4
1.2
13.6
13.2
0.7
0.5
KPIT Cummins
Reduce
123
114
2,189
2,028
2,239
15.0
14.8
9.0
11.4
13.7
10.8
2.5
2.0
19.3
18.7
1.1
0.9
Mahindra Satyam
Buy
74
86
8,673
7,097
7,812
16.2
16.0
7.5
8.0
9.8
9.3
1.3
1.1
13.2
12.3
0.8
0.7
Mindtree
Neutral
629
2,553
2,172
2,450
16.1
15.5
53.9
58.5
11.7
10.8
2.2
1.8
18.9
17.0
1.0
0.8
Mphasis
Buy
368
433
7,729
5,904
6,320
18.3
17.9
38.7
41.2
9.5
8.9
1.4
1.2
14.9
13.7
0.9
0.7
NIIT
Buy
41
52
682
1,162
1,304
14.8
15.1
7.1
8.8
5.8
4.7
1.0
0.9
16.7
18.4
0.4
0.3
Persistent
Neutral
344
1,377
1,109
1,224
23.3
22.4
37.2
40.1
9.3
8.6
1.4
1.2
15.4
14.5
0.9
0.8
TCS
Neutral
1,225
239,711
57,189
66,329
29.3
28.7
63.2
70.9
19.4
17.3
5.9
4.8
30.5
27.7
4.0
3.3
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
655
725
8,346
5,880
6,314
15.6
15.2
75.9
82.2
8.6
8.0
1.7
1.4
20.1
18.1
1.4
1.2
Wipro
Accumulate
401
430
98,636
41,918
46,879
19.4
19.9
25.1
28.7
16.0
14.0
3.0
2.6
18.6
18.3
2.0
1.7
D B Corp
Buy
195
269
3,570
1,652
1,863
25.7
26.3
13.5
16.1
14.4
12.1
3.2
2.7
24.1
24.4
2.1
1.8
HT Media
Buy
114
148
2,669
2,255
2,555
16.3
16.7
9.0
10.6
12.6
10.7
1.6
1.4
13.4
13.8
0.8
0.6
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
89
137
2,820
1,499
1,642
27.4
28.8
7.6
9.1
11.7
9.8
3.9
3.5
34.6
37.7
1.8
1.7
PVR
Neutral
155
402
625
732
17.4
16.9
12.4
15.8
12.5
9.8
2.0
2.1
8.5
9.9
0.8
0.7
Sun TV Network
Neutral
227
8,934
2,135
2,458
75.2
74.4
20.9
24.0
10.9
9.4
2.5
2.1
26.0
25.1
3.1
2.5
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
435
9,237
9,232
13,557
30.8
31.1
48.0
58.6
9.1
7.4
1.2
1.0
14.5
7.5
3.1
2.2
Coal India
Accumulate
321
353
202,945
68,841
74,509
25.3
25.3
24.1
26.1
13.4
12.3
3.7
3.0
30.4
26.8
2.0
1.8
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
17
27
604
1,984
2,074
10.6
12.0
2.7
3.3
6.5
5.3
0.3
0.1
5.2
6.2
0.4
0.4
Hind. Zinc
Buy
117
139
49,288
13,043
14,223
51.8
52.8
14.8
16.6
7.9
7.0
1.5
1.3
21.2
19.9
2.1
1.5
Hindalco
Neutral
116
22,285
84,652
88,766
9.6
10.5
17.0
18.9
6.9
6.2
0.6
0.6
9.7
9.8
0.5
0.5
JSW Steel
Accumulate
601
663
13,402
39,592
44,910
18.0
17.7
74.7
88.9
8.0
6.8
0.8
0.7
10.7
11.6
0.7
0.6
MOIL
Accumulate
271
296
4,545
1,007
1,091
56.6
56.9
29.4
31.9
9.2
8.5
1.6
1.5
19.0
18.2
2.3
1.9
Monnet Ispat
Buy
398
593
2,560
3,115
3,748
22.1
25.1
59.1
66.8
6.7
6.0
0.9
0.8
15.6
15.3
1.6
1.2
IT
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
June 04, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
EPS ( )
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Metals & Mining

Nalco
Reduce
NMDC
Accumulate
57
54
14,806
8,474
9,024
12.6
16.2
2.6
3.6
22.5
16.0
1.2
1.2
5.6
7.5
1.3
1.2
165
187
65,418
11,959
13,062
78.2
78.6
19.1
20.9
8.7
7.9
2.1
1.8
27.1
24.4
3.4
2.9
SAIL
Sesa Goa
Accumulate
91
102
37,670
52,461
62,935
18.0
18.8
13.2
14.5
6.9
6.3
0.8
0.7
12.4
12.3
1.1
1.0
Accumulate
182
206
15,774
9,067
9,316
35.7
35.5
44.5
44.3
4.1
4.1
0.9
0.7
23.5
19.5
0.3
Sterlite Inds
Buy
91
123
30,649
45,805
49,029
21.2
23.5
16.5
19.1
5.5
4.8
0.6
0.5
11.5
12.0
0.3
0.2
Tata Steel
Buy
398
499
38,654 143,088 148,011
10.9
12.1
53.9
66.0
7.4
6.0
0.9
0.8
12.2
13.4
0.6
0.6
Cairn India
Buy
316
372
60,345
15,513
16,074
74.0
69.7
51.1
48.6
6.2
6.5
1.0
0.9
18.3
14.8
2.8
2.0
GAIL
Buy
331
392
41,987
50,472
55,503
15.3
15.6
35.4
37.0
9.3
8.9
1.6
1.4
18.7
17.0
0.5
0.4
ONGC
Buy
246
319
210,722 148,157 150,563
37.6
39.5
31.0
33.6
8.0
7.3
1.4
1.3
18.8
18.1
1.1
0.9
Reliance Industries
Buy
684
872
223,881 325,734 328,669
10.9
11.7
65.8
70.1
10.4
9.8
1.1
1.0
11.9
11.5
0.7
0.6
Oil & Gas
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Buy
49
91
917
1,624
1,855
14.2
15.6
6.6
9.1
7.4
5.4
1.8
1.4
27.5
29.2
0.8
0.7
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
105
175
3,055
5,243
5,767
14.6
14.6
13.8
14.7
7.6
7.1
0.9
0.4
11.4
10.9
0.9
0.8
Aventis*
Neutral
2,070
4,768
1,482
1,682
15.5
15.5
95.0
104.0
21.8
19.9
3.9
3.0
18.6
17.0
3.0
2.6
Cadila Healthcare
Buy
726
953
14,870
6,196
7,443
18.5
19.5
43.3
50.8
16.8
14.3
4.3
3.5
25.4
24.8
2.4
1.9
Cipla
Buy
309
379
24,774
7,687
8,804
21.4
21.4
16.5
18.9
18.7
16.3
2.9
2.6
16.7
16.8
3.2
2.7
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
1,650
27,967
10,696
11,662
20.7
21.0
83.7
92.9
19.7
17.8
4.1
3.4
22.4
21.0
2.7
2.5
Dishman Pharma
Buy
50
92
401
1,280
1,536
17.8
17.8
9.2
11.3
5.4
4.4
0.4
0.4
7.7
8.5
1.0
0.8
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
1,978
16,757
2,651
2,993
31.7
31.2
76.0
82.4
26.0
24.0
7.5
6.5
30.8
29.0
5.4
4.6
Indoco Remedies
Buy
54
665
498
685
837
15.2
15.2
55.5
66.5
1.0
0.8
0.2
0.1
16.4
16.9
0.9
0.8
Ipca labs
Buy
342
443
4,301
2,907
3,541
21.5
21.5
32.4
40.6
10.6
8.4
2.6
2.1
27.8
27.7
1.6
1.3
Lupin
Buy
538
646
24,032
8,426
10,082
19.7
20.0
29.7
32.4
18.1
16.6
4.7
3.8
27.0
25.2
2.8
2.2
Orchid Chemicals
Buy
118
178
833
2,117
2,434
17.7
17.7
16.7
22.2
7.1
5.3
0.7
0.6
9.5
11.5
1.0
0.9
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
492
20,772
12,046
11,980
18.0
15.8
35.7
29.8
13.8
16.5
5.2
4.2
43.1
28.1
1.8
1.7
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
569
634
58,586
9,272
11,080
40.3
36.3
26.7
28.8
21.3
19.8
4.3
3.7
22.1
20.8
5.6
4.6
CESC
Buy
267
342
3,331
5,084
5,512
24.2
23.8
45.2
48.5
5.9
5.5
0.6
0.6
11.2
10.9
1.1
1.1
GIPCL
Buy
59
98
889
1,557
1,573
28.7
27.5
10.4
10.2
5.7
5.8
0.6
0.5
10.5
9.6
1.0
0.9
NTPC
Accumulate
145
158
119,518
74,766
86,549
23.1
23.4
12.4
14.1
11.7
10.3
1.5
1.3
13.0
13.5
2.3
2.1
46
78
1,360
657
875
52.0
56.1
8.4
12.7
5.5
3.6
0.3
0.3
6.3
8.9
3.3
2.5
182
30,979
9,878
12,033
44.7
46.1
9.6
13.4
19.0
13.6
1.2
1.2
6.4
8.7
5.6
4.6
Power
Real Estate
Anant Raj
Buy
DLF
Neutral
Market Outlook
June 04, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
64
115
2,667
2,441
3,344
53.0
46.7
21.4
25.4
3.0
2.5
0.2
0.2
8.4
9.1
2.9
2.2
Real Estate
HDIL
Buy
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
301
114,287
80,967
88,684
33.1
33.4
17.9
22.0
16.8
13.7
1.9
1.7
11.5
12.5
2.1
1.8
Idea Cellular
Neutral
76
25,217
22,558
25,326
26.4
27.5
3.2
4.7
23.6
16.1
1.8
1.6
7.5
10.0
1.6
1.4
Rcom
Neutral
63
12,931
21,899
23,740
32.7
32.7
4.2
6.7
14.8
9.4
0.3
0.3
2.1
3.2
2.0
1.6
183
245
1,825
3,670
4,384
8.5
8.5
18.3
22.3
10.0
8.2
2.2
1.8
23.9
24.3
0.5
0.4
zOthers
Bajaj Electrical
Buy
CRISIL
Neutral
1,067
7,486
982
1,136
34.3
34.3
34.3
40.0
31.1
26.7
14.1
11.3
50.9
46.9
7.2
6.1
Finolex Cables
Buy
37
61
567
2,334
2,687
8.8
9.3
7.6
10.2
4.9
3.6
0.6
0.5
13.7
16.1
0.2
0.1
Graphite India
Buy
89
124
1,736
2,158
2,406
18.1
18.9
12.4
14.0
7.2
6.3
1.0
0.9
14.0
14.3
0.9
0.8
Greenply
Buy
214
298
517
1,800
2,047
11.1
11.6
34.1
49.6
6.3
4.3
1.2
0.9
20.2
23.7
0.5
0.4
Page Industries
Neutral
3,059
3,412
935
1,168
19.6
19.6
99.7
122.2
30.7
25.0
17.8
14.2
64.2
63.1
3.7
2.9
Sintex
Buy
52
129
1,415
4,751
5,189
16.3
16.6
13.6
15.8
3.8
3.3
0.5
0.4
13.1
13.4
0.7
0.5
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
257
439
241
1,042
1,173
12.4
12.5
66.3
78.5
3.9
3.3
0.8
0.6
21.1
20.8
0.5
0.4
SpiceJet
Neutral
28
1,342
5,384
6,443
(1.0)
4.1
(3.4)
2.4
(8.1)
11.6
(11.2)
23.6
0.4
0.4
Taj GVK
Buy
60
108
376
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
7.6
6.6
1.0
0.9
13.9
14.4
1.6
1.3
Goodyear
Buy
318
372
732
1,571
1,753
7.2
8.6
29.8
42.4
10.6
7.5
2.0
1.7
20.2
24.3
0.3
0.2
HEG
Buy
196
242
783
1,746
1,946
16.5
17.7
22.5
32.9
8.7
6.0
0.9
0.8
10.4
14.2
1.1
1.0
Hitachi
Buy
113
160
260
857
968
6.9
8.4
10.2
16.0
11.2
7.1
1.4
1.2
12.9
17.8
0.4
0.3
Honeywell Automation
Neutral
2,581
2,281
1,542
1,739
9.4
10.0
116.1
140.8
22.2
18.3
3.2
2.7
15.5
15.9
Ineos ABS
Accumulate
730
777
1,284
900
1,011
10.2
11.5
35.6
45.7
20.5
16.0
3.0
2.6
15.4
17.2
ITD Cementation
Accumulate
218
236
251
1,535
1,842
11.1
11.1
27.3
38.3
8.0
5.7
0.6
0.6
7.9
10.2
0.6
0.6
MRF
Buy
10,610
13,106
4,500
12,390
14,400
10.4
11.3 1,334.6 1,638.2
8.0
6.5
1.6
1.3
16.5
17.4
0.6
0.5
Relaxo
Accumulate
451
478
541
1,019
1,208
11.0
10.8
44.9
53.1
10.0
8.5
2.4
1.9
27.2
25.0
0.7
0.6
Tata Sponge
Buy
270
420
416
757
875
19.0
19.1
63.5
72.9
4.3
3.7
0.6
0.6
16.1
16.1
0.1
TVS Srichakra
Buy
320
462
245
1,612
1,827
9.5
9.8
72.3
92.5
4.4
3.5
1.3
1.0
33.1
32.1
0.4
0.3
Vesuvius India
Accumulate
367
413
746
628
716
16.4
16.5
29.8
34.4
12.3
10.7
2.2
1.8
18.8
18.6
1.0
0.8
Abbott India
Accumulate
1,422
1,628
3,023
1,661
1,918
9.7
12.0
60.7
90.4
23.5
15.7
4.8
3.9
22.0
27.3
1.6
1.3
Cera Sanitaryware Ltd
Accumulate
252
288
319
385
444
17.2
17.4
28.9
32.0
8.7
7.9
1.8
1.5
23.4
21.1
1.0
0.9
Jyothy Laboratories
Buy
215
268
1,736
1,315
1,568
8.6
11.1
6.4
10.9
33.8
19.8
2.8
2.7
8.4
13.9
1.6
1.3
Force Motors
Buy
438
680
571
2,346
2,753
6.7
7.0
50.9
61.9
8.6
7.1
0.5
0.5
5.5
6.3
0.2
0.2
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on June 01, 2012
Market Outlook
June 04, 2012

Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook

(1.6) (253.4) 15,965

(1.8) (199.9) 10,685

OIL & GAS

(2.2) (274.9) 12,119

Cement Dispatches May 2012

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (May 31, 2012)

FII Derivatives (June 01, 2012)

Cement Dispatches May 2012

CRISIL to acquire U.K.-based Coalition Development Co. for `250cr

Economic and Political News

Manufacturing sector activity keeps pace in May: survey

NMDC to start coal production by 2014

Global economic events release calendar

Jun 5 2012 12:00AM

Jun 6 2012 12:00AM

Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)

ECB announces interest rates

Initial Jobless claims

BOE Announces rates

Jun 7 2012 12:00AM

Jun 9 2012 12:00AM

Industrial Production (YoY)

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Jun 10 2012 12:00AM China

Jun 12 2012 12:00AM India

Industrial Production YoY

Industrial Production (YoY)

Jun 13 2012 12:00AM US

Producer Price Index (mom)

Jun 14 2012 12:00AM US

Consumer price index (mom)

Jun 15 2012 12:00AM US

Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

Jun 18 2012 12:00AM India

RBI Repo rate

RBI Cash Reserve ratio

RBI Reverse Repo rate

Jobless claims change

Jun 19 2012 12:00AM UK

Jun 20 2012 12:00AM UK

FOMC rate decision

Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Exports yoy growth

Imports yoy growth

Reverse Repo rate

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Agri / Agri Chemical

Amara Raja Batteries

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Mahindra and Mahindra Buy

59,832 191,183 210,301