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MTE3105 Statistics

Topic 1

Probability

1.1

Synopsis

This course allows students to revisit the concepts of probability and explore inferential statistics such as t-test, Chi-Square test, analysis of Variance (ANOVA) in hypothesis testing and linear regression in analyzing linear relationship in bivariate variables.

1.2

Learning Outcomes Explain the theoretical and empirical aspects underpinning probability.

1.3

Conceptual Framework

1.4

Introduction to probability

1.4.1 Probability of An Event. An experiment can result in different possible outcomes. For example, tossing a fair coin can result in two possible outcomes {head, tail}. Rolling a die can result in six

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possible outcomes {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Tossing a coin and a die together results in twelve outcomes {H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1,T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}. A set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is the sample space of the experiment and is denoted by S. Members of the sample space are called the elements of S. Number of elements in the sample is n(S).

EXAMPLE 1 Two fairs coins are tossed. Write down the sample space of the experiment.

SOLUTION Let H be the head and T be the tail. Then the sample space S is given by S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} The number of elements in the sample space is 4 and is written as n(S) = 4

1.4.2 An Event An Event is a subset of the sample space. An event is a set of outcomes that satisfy certain specific conditions.

EXAMPLE 2 A fair die is tossed. The sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and n{S} = 6. If E1 is the event the number is even then E1 = {2, 4, 6} and n(E1) = 3. If E2 is an event the number is greater than 4, then E2 = {5, 6} and n(E2) = 2.

1.4.3 Probability If S is a sample space consisting of n equally likely outcomes, then the probability of the event E, written as P(E), is defined as

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( )

( ) ( )

EXAMPLE 3 Find the probabilities for event E1 and event E2 in example 2.

SOLUTION The sample space for the outcomes S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and n{S} = 6. The events E1 = {2, 4, 6} and n(E1) = 3. E2 = {5, 6} and n(E2) = 2. ( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

EXAMPLE 4 A card is drawn randomly from a pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that (a) it is an eight (b) it is a red card.

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SOLUTION Let A be the event the card is an eight and B be the event the card is red. A pack of cards contains 4 cards of number 8 and 26 red cards. Thus, ( ) ( ) ( )

( )

( ) ( )

1.4.4 Basic results of probability 1. If E is an event in the sample space S, then E is a subset of S, i.e. E C S, and 0 P (E) 1 This means that the probability of event E lies between 0 and 1 (both inclusive). If P(E) = 0, then the event E cannot possibly occur. If P(E) = 1 then the event E is certain to occur. 2. Let be the event does not occur, and S the sample space. Then P ( ) = 1 P (E) or P ( ) + P (E) = 1

is called the complement of event E and can also be denoted by E or


E does not occur.

P (E) is known as the probability of the complement of event E. E is the event that

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EXAMPLE 5 A bag contains 10 red marbles. A marble is drawn randomly from the bag. Find the probability that the marble drawn is (a) red, (b) yellow.

SOLUTION (a) All the 10 marbles in the bag are red. The event a red marble is drawn is a sure event. Therefore, P(red marble) = 1 (b) There is no yellow marble in the bag. There is no possibility of drawing a yellow marble. Thus, P(yellow marble) = 0.

EXAMPLE 6 Ali has a set of eight cards numbered 1 to 8. A card is drawn randomly from the set of cards. Find the probability that the number drawn is (a) 8 (b) not 8

SOLUTION (a) If E is the event that a number 8 is drawn and S is the sample space, then S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8} E = {8} = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7} ( ) ( ) ( )

( )

( )

( ) ( )

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( ) ( )

1.5 Compound Events 1.5.1 Independent Events Two events are said to be independent if the outcome of one event does not depend on the outcomes of the other. For example, the outcomes of the second toss of a coin is independent of the outcomes of the first toss. Suppose a fair coin shows heads in the first 5 tosses; the probability that it will show a head in the sixth toss is still half, independent of the outcome of the first five tosses (even if the first 5 tosses give head). Now, lets consider another example. A box has three blue balls and two red balls. A ball is drawn and replaced. A second ball is drawn. The outcome of the second draw is independent of the first because the condition is unchanged by the replacement of the first ball. If the ball is not replaced, then the probability of an outcome in the draw is dependent on the outcome in the first draw. When two event are not independent, the occurrence of these events depend on the conditions involved. It should be noted that random observation from a very large population also implies independence. If A and B are independent events then P (A B) = P(A) X P(B)

EXAMPLE 7 Let H1 and H2 be the events that a head occurs on the first and second tosses of a fair coin respectively. What is the probability of a head on both the first and second tosses? SOLUTION The outcome of the second toss is independent of the first toss.

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P (H1 H2) = P (H1) X P (H2)

EXAMPLE 8 Two red balls and three balls are placed in a bag. a ball is drawn from the bag and replaced. If the process is repeated four times, what is the probability that all four draws are red balls?

SOLUTION Let R be the event that a red is drawn. ( ) The draws are independent because the ball is replaced after each draw. The probability that all four draws are red balls

1.5.2 Mutually Exclusive Events If an event A can occur or an event B can occur but not both events A and B can occur, then the two events are A and B are said to be mutually exclusive. This means that if A and B are mutually exclusive events, then if A occurs, B cannot occur and if B occurs, A cannot occur. For two mutually exclusive events A and B, AB= , P(AB) = 0 and P (AUB) = P (A) + P (B) This is known as addition law of mutually exclusive events.

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EXAMPLE 9 A bag contains 3 black balls, 4 white balls and 9 yellow balls. A ball is drawn randomly from the bag. Find the probability that the ball selected is (a) black (b) black or yellow. SOLUTION The sample space, S = {3 black balls, 4 white balls, 9 yellow balls} n(S) = 16 Let A : event black ball is chosen, B : event yellow ball is chosen. ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

( ) (

( )
( ) ( )

( )

(because A and B are mutually exclusive)


( )

( )

1.5.2 Non-Mutually Exclusive Events In general if A and B are not mutually exclusive events then P (AUB) = P (A) + P (B) P (AB)

EXAMPLE 10 A number is selected from the first 250 positive integers. What is the probability that it is exactly divisible by 3 or 4?

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SOLUTION Sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, , 250} Set of numbers divisible by 3, T = {3, 6, 9, , 249} Set of numbers divisible by 4, F = {4, 8, 12,, 248} Set of numbers divisible by both 3 and 4(divisible by 12) T F = {12, 24, 36, , 240} T U F is the set of numbers divisible by either by 3 or 4. Thus, 250 3 = 83 with remainder 1, therefore n(T) = 83 250 4 = 62 with remainder 2, therefore n(F) = 62 250 12 = 20 with remainder 10, therefore n(T F) = 20 P(T U F) = P(T) + P(F) P(T F)

1.6 The addition Rule If a class has 18 girls and 12 boys, then the total number of students 30. This is an example of the addition rule/principle. If the sets of female number students, set of male students and set of the total number of students in the class are represented by G, B and C respectively, then we denote the union of the set of girls and the boys forming the set of students in the class as C= G U B and write as n(C) = n(G U B) = n(G) + n(B) For any two sets A and B, n(A U B) = n(A) + n(B) n(A B). If A and B are disjoint sets, A B = and n(A B) = 0.

For disjoint sets A and B, n(A U B) = n(A) + n(B).

EXAMPLE 11 In a certain class, there are 30 students who represent the school in at least one sport. Among them, 20 students are in the school hockey team and 24 students are in the

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school football team. How many students in the class represent in the school in both hockey and football?

SOLUTION Let H be the set of hockey players and F be the set of football players. Given n(H U F) = 30, n(H) = 20 and n(F) = 24. n(HU F) = n(H) + n(F) n(H F). 30 = 20 + 24 n(H F) n(H F) = 44 30 = 14

1.6 The Multiplication Rule The multiplication of m with n involves the principle of counting a set consisting of m objects n times. Suppose we wish to form a code using one letter from the first seven letters followed by one digit from first three positive integers. For each of the 7 letters, there are 3 codes, for example for the letter A, the codes are A1, A2 and A3, and for letter B the codes are B1, B2 and B3, etc. Thus, the number of different codes is given by 7 X 3 = 2. If there 7 ways for an even to occur and 3 ways for second event to occur, then there 21 ways for the events to occurs. This use the multiplication principle. In general, if there are m ways of performing an operation and for each of there, there are n ways of performing another, then there are m x n ways of performing the two operations in succession.

EXAMPLE 12 A coin and a die are tossed together. How many different outcomes are possible? List the possible outcomes as ordered pairs.

SOLUTION The coin has 2 possible outcomes (head, H and tail, T) and the die has 6 possible outcomes. The number of different outcomes possible = 2 X 6 = 12.

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The possible outcomes are (H, 1) (H, 2) (H, 3) (H, 4) (H, 5) (H, 6) (T, 1) (T, 2) (T, 3) (T, 4) (T, 5) (T, 6)

1.7

Probability Trees

A tree diagram is a schematic diagram of the sequence of events and their probabilities. It gives a clear picture of a probability situation. It can be used to solve probability problems.

1.7.1

Tree Diagram The following steps can be used to create a tree diagram. 1. Determine the first circumstance in the sequence and create one branch for each event from the same point. Write the associated probability on the branch. 2. Determine the next random circumstance and draw branches to each of the branches in the step 1 and write the associated conditional probabilities on the branches. 3. Continue the process for as many steps as necessary.

It should be noted that all the branches which begin from a point must be; a) mutually exclusive events, and b) exhaustive events, that is the sum of the probabilities of all the events is 1.

EXAMPLE 13 A coin is loaded and the probability a head occurs and the probability a tail occurs are: ( ) ( )

The coin is tossed three times.

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a) List all the possible outcomes with a tree diagram, b) Find the probability that i. ii. 3 heads are obtained 2 head and 1 tail are obtained,

iii. no heads are obtained.

SOLUTION

Let

H T

: event of a head occurs, : event of a tail occurs, .

HHH : event of obtaining 3 heads on three tosses, that is ( ) ( )

a)

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b)

c)

A boy has in his pockets, a fair coin and a coin with heads on both the sides. A coin is drawn randomly from his pockets and tossed. What is the probability that a head is obtained?

1.8

Conditional Probabilities

Consider the following experiment. A fair die is thrown. If it is known that the number obtained is an odd number, what is the probability that the number is an 5? The sample space for the experiment is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. With the condition that number obtained is an odd number, the new conditional sample S = {1, 3, 5}. If A is the event a 5 is obtained and B is the event an odd number is obtained, then A = {5}, and B = {1, 3, 5}, ( ( ) ) , ( ) and ( ) .

In general, if A and B are two events with ( )

, and ( )

, then the probability

of A given B has already occurred is written ( | ) and

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( | )

( ( )

The result can be obtained with the help of a Venn diagram.

( | ) ( ( ) Therefore ( | ) ) ( ( ) ( ) )

( ( )

The result can also be written in the form: ( ) ( | ) ( )

In the same way, it can be shown that: ( | ) ( ( ( ) ( ) ( ) ) ) , ( ) ( )-

( | ) ( )

Hence, the result can be written: ( ) ( | ) ( ) ( | ) ( )

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If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then as ( ) it follows that ( ) ( | ) ( ) EXAMPLE 14

( )

and (

A fair die is tossed and an even number occurs. What is the probability that the number is greater than or equal to 4? SOLUTION Let A be the event an even number occurs and B the event the event the number is greater than or equal to 4. ( | ) ( ( ) )

+)

Probability that the number is greater than or equal to 4 given that it is an even number is .

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