European Championship 2012 Tracker

Championship: Principal Indicators

Macrosoccer Indicators: European Champions Year 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012e
Source: IVG Research

June 2012

Soccer Sentiment Index (current betting odds: Next European champion?) 3rd Czechoslovakia Hungary England Belgium Netherlands Czechoslovakia -

Location Champion F Soviet Union ES Spain I Italy BE Germany YU Czechoslovakia I Germany F France D Netherlands SWE Denmark ENG Germany NL/ BE France PT Greece AT/ CH Spain PL/UA Germany

2nd Yugoslavia Soviet Union Yugoslavia Soviet Union Germany Belgium Spain Soviet Union Germany Czech Republic Italy Portugal Germany Croatia

80 70 60 50 40 30 7,5 10 11 14 16 22 40

80

3,5 ES

3,7 D

NL

ENG

PT

RU PL odds

HR UA SWE CZ

DK GR IRL

Source: bet-at-home.com

* Result of an analysis of macrosoccer indicators for the last European championships: There were six different champions in the last six tournaments and six different countries in the last three finals, only one of them not from Southern Europe. Time series for the past therefore suggests that Croatia should enter this year's final as another Southern European team. * Since 1976, Germany has always entered the finals in two suceeding tournaments and afterwards paused for another two succeeding championships. Based on this rule, Germany will be the opponent of Croatia in this year's final and win the European Championship. * The Soccer Sentiment Index based on betting odds indicates something different: Spain is the favourite to win with odds at 3.5. As a consequence of the current sovereign debt crisis, Greece and Ireland are subject to high risk premiums: For an opportunistic investor, an investment of 1 in these countries will currently produce a return of 80 in case of success.

Analysis of National Soccer "Property" Portfolios

World Total capital value Capital value per ranking in mn asset in mn A Poland (PL) 65 99,5 3,3 Czech Rep. (CZ) 26 116,4 3,9 Russia (RU) 11 196,4 6,5 Greece (GR) 14 100,9 3,4 B Netherlands (NL) 4 315,5 10,5 Portugal (PT) 5 373,0 12,4 Germany (D) 2 512,0 17,1 Denmark (DK) 9 94,5 3,1 C Spain (ES) 1 785,0 26,2 Croatia (HR) 8 184,0 6,1 Ireland (IRL) 19 95,5 3,2 Italy (I) 12 426,2 14,2 D England (ENG) 7 507,8 16,9 Sweden (SWE) 17 139,8 4,7 Ukraine (UA) 50 127,1 4,2 France (F) 16 445,0 14,8 Source: IVG Research based on data of Transfermarkt GmbH & Co. KG Most valuable asset in mn 15,0 25,0 17,0 9,0 45,0 90,0 42,0 13,0 65,0 39,0 9,0 32,0 65,0 37,0 9,0 42,0 Name of asset Robert Lewandowski Petr Cech Igor Akinfeev Kyriakos Papadopoulos Robin van Persie Cristiano Ronaldo Mario Gomez Christian Eriksen Andres Iniesta Luka Modric Aiden McGeady Daniele De Rossi Wayne Rooney Zlatan Ibrahimovic Andriy Yarmolenko Frank Ribery Average age of assets in portfolio 26,0 27,3 27,3 26,7 26,1 27,5 24,5 26,9 26,4 26,1 28,0 27,2 26,6 26,8 27,1 26,4 Returns in European Championship Participations* Titles* Goals Points 1 0 1:4 1 4 0 30:27 28 3 0 13:20 13 3 1 9:13 14 8 1 69:49 58 5 0 40:27 42 10 3 63:48 68 7 1 35:47 25 8 2 49:41 51 3 0 15:16 17 1 0 2:2 4 7 1 40:32 45 7 0 44:41 28 4 0 23:21 16 0 0 0:0 0 7 2 56:44 50 * under today's country name

* The soccer "property" portfolio of Spain is by far the most valuable with a total capital value of 785 mn in front of Germany (512 mn ) and England (508 mn ). The teams of Denmark (95 mn ) and Ireland (96 mn ) have a relatively low value and maybe therefore subject of attempts of take-over by Russian or Arabian billionaires. * The most expensive single asset is "Ronaldo" within the Portuguese portfolio with a a value of 94 mn , subject to the biggest transaction in history of world's soccer property market. * Due to the elevated price, this asset makes 24% of Portugal's total capital value. Other countries with a major cluster risk are Sweden (26% related to asset "Ibrahimovic"), the Czech Republic (21% related to "Cech") and Croatia (21% to "Modric"). Ukraine has the best diversified portfolio of all countries (asset "Yarmolenko" only 7% of total capital value). * In the past the German portfolio reached the best performance with 10 championship participations, 3 championships and 68 points. * Bookmakers do not see big chances for Ireland to win the title due to the lack of modern assets: Ireland has the oldest stock with an average age of 28 years per asset in the national portfolio. On the other side, Germany now has the youngest team due to radical refurbishment activities taken after the bad performance of the tournament 2004. * Very high presence in the championship of assets with origin from FC Bayern Munich (13), Real Madrid (12), FC Barcelona, Manchester City and Dynamo Kiev (11). * There is no significant difference in nominal rents between Poland and Ukraine. Depending on the phase of the tournament, rents for Grade A space range from 120 to 600 /seat per match (specific measurement unit for tenant contracts in stadiums). But effective rents are partly under severe downward pressure on the black market. * Investors are ready to pay higher property prices in countries which have won the European Soccer Championship. The correlation between national prime office yields and the number of European championships won is approx. -0.4: Countries which have never won the European Championship offer more attractive income returns to investors. The very low yield for London offices ("outlier") can be explained by the desperate optimism of investors that England is going to be the next soccer champion.

Nominal rents for a seat per match, differentiated by space quality

Prices in euros Grade B 140 70 80 150 330

Negative correlation: Number of championships won vs. prime office yields

UA

Prime office yield in %

Grade A Opening match Group matches Quarter - finals Semi - finals Final Source: UEFA 250 120 150 270 600

Grade C 45 30 40 45 50

12 10 8 6 4 0

HR PT IRL PL SWE ENG

GR RU NL CZ DK & I
1

ES D F
2 3

No. of European soccer championships w on

Source: IVG Research. In case of RU former USSR, and in case of CZ former CSSR

European Championship 2012 Tracker

June 2012

Current home base and place of employment of national teams: Portugal and Denmark with the longest way to travel

Arena Gdansk GDANSK cap: 40.000 pers. Olympic Stadium KIEW Gdansk National Stadium WARSZAWA cap: 50.000 pers. Poznan City Stadium POZNAN cap:40.000 pers. Wroclaw Krakow City Stadium WROCLAW cap:40.000 pers. Lwiw Donezk Donbass Arena DONEZK cap: 50.000 pers. Arena Lwiw LWIW cap: 30.000 pers. Warszawa Kiew cap: 60.000 pers. Mentalist-Stadium CHARKIW cap: 35.000 pers.

Charkiw

Source: IVG Research

Experts' views on soccer

* Francesco Totti (58 matches for Italy) answering a journalist's question about the motto "Carpe diem": "Sorry, I don't speak English." * Berti Vogts (96 matches as player, 102 as coach for Germany): "The Croatians have the reputation of kicking at anything that moves - so our midfield does not have to be afraid." * George Best (37 matches for Northern Ireland): "I spent a lot of money on booze, birds and fast cars the rest I just squandered." * Ruud Gullit (66 matches for the Netherlands): "We must have had 99% of the game. It was the other 3% that cost us the match." * Heribert Fabender (legendary German soccer reporter): "You should not underestimate Poland. These players from the Balcan are a loose cannon!" * Davor Suker (69 matches for Croatia): "The period before a match is very hard. We get up at 9 o'clock in the morning." * Oscar Wilde (no soccer match for Ireland): "Football is all very well a good game for rough girls, but not for delicate boys." * Lothar Matthus (150 matches for Germany): "Everybody, who has heard me talking, knows precisely that I will be able to speak English in six or even four weeks and to give interviews understandable for any German." Famous examples: "I hope we have a little bit lucky." "I look not back, I look in front."

and how fans think about it

* 75% of Irish supporters and 67% of Swedish fans favour seeing their teams winning to visiting their beloved families, while 55% of the Spanish and French would rather prefer to see their family (German fans are undecided). * 30% of Ukrainian and Russian fans and 27% of Portuguese would give up watching TV, if they saw their team winning the Euro 2012. * 29% of German fans would give up drinking alcohol for one month in that case. * 52% of Spanish fans and 47% of Portuguese fans, but only 6% of Irish and 11% of German fans consider the players of their national team as "Ballerinas". * 23% of the French supporters surveyed have named their child according to their favourite player. * 52% of Russian and 46% of English fans consider it typical for their team to make a howler, while Germans (5%), Irish (12%) and Italians (14%) are more confident about their teams. * Poland (17%) and Croatia (12%) are considered the most underestimated teams, while Spain (53%) and Germany (25%) are seen the most dangerous teams. Source: www.sharpfanlabs.com/www.kicker.de

Recent "Rumours" about Soccer and the Property Market

* Investment Property Databank wants to extend its benchmarking analysis to the property category of "(soccer) stadiums, playing fields and racetracks". * IVG Immobilien AG brings its New Work City concept into perfection by converting one atrium in THE SQUAIRE at Frankfurt airport into a small soccer stadium. * Qatar plans a real estate fund geared at German institutional investors to finance the construction of future stadiums for the World Championship 2012. * While prices for overnight stays in Kiew have increased by up to 500%, hotel prices may fall in Germany, as many soccer fans prefer to spend their holiday at home. * Shopping centres are expecting higher sales, as many husbands send their wives for shopping to be able to enjoy the soccer transmissions on TV without disturbances. * European Commission considers introducing the "11 meter" as means to find a compromise between the units of length used in the United Kingdom and on the continent. * German property companies discuss the introduction of new rules for indexation of office rents, based on the success of the local soccer clubs in the Bundesliga. * Extension of existing property complex "The round goes into the square": The Grand Arche/La Dfense will be complemented by a new shopping centre - formed by a red-coloured globe for the European Championship 2016 in France.

Recent Soccer Investment Transactions

* Shinji Kagawa leaves his former club Borussia Dortmund for a new commitment at Manchester United. The transfer fee is defined with 15 mn . * Dirk Kuyt is allowed to leave his former club FC Liverpool one year before end of contract for 1 mn and will play for Fenerbahce Istanbul in next season (3-year contract). * Lukas Podolski switches from the relegated 1. FC Kln to Arsenal London for about 13 mn . * After leaving with CF Flamengo due to a dispute, 32-year old Brasilian star Ronaldinho has decided to play for Atletico Mineiro. * Brasilian player Hulk (Givanildo Vieira de Souze) is expected to change from FC Porto to FC Chelasea for 47 mn . Eden Hazard comes from OSC Lille for around 40 mn . * Up to now, English Premier League investors have been the most active (net) purchasers in 2012 with an investment volume of 90 mn and revenues of only 1 mn . * German 1. Bundesliga has been the most important vendor in 2012 with a selling amount of 100 mn and investments of 90 mn . * The players in other major European soccer leagues have been widely characterised by an attitude of wait & see in their activities on the European soccer investment market up to now. For further information: Thomas Beyerle +49-228-844 454 Oliver Vo +49-228-844 298 Martin Kliem +49-228-844 106