Professional Documents
Culture Documents
No. 3
Assignment Title:
Edited by:
SAJJAD NAGHAVI
(KGH070032)
Lecturer:
T.M.I. Mahlia
Academic Year-(Semester):
Session 2007/2008-(Sem. 2)
Content
List of Tables 2
List of Figures 3
Abstract 4
Nomenclature 5
1. Introduction 6
1.1. Background 6
1.2. Significance to the study 6
1.3.Scope of the study 6
2. Survey Data 7
2.1. Introduction 7
2.2. Essentialdata 7
2.3. Summery 8
3. Methodology 9
3.1. Introduction 9
3.2. Study Procedure 9
3.3. Summery 12
4. Results and Discussions 13
4.1. Introduction 13
4.2. Results 13
5. Conclusions 18
Reference 19
1
List of Tables
2
List of Figures
3
Abstract
4
Nomenclature
5
SSFic Shipment survival factor
TEIsc Total efficiency improvement
T Lifetime of standard (year)
UFSsc Unit fuel saving in year of standard enacted
UFSic Unit fuel saving in year i
Yse Year standard enacted
Ydr Year of discount rate base
1. Introduction
1.1. Background
6
producing without efficient engines with efficient engines.The impact of
fuel economy standards will be analized in the matter of energy savings,
economical savings (bill savings, fuel savings), and the last is the
environmental impact. The environmental impact will be analized
regarding to the reduction of fuel usage, that will decrease the amount of
fuel emissions (CO2, SO2, NOx, and CO). The pollutant are produced by the
engines, are: CO2, SO2, NOx, and CO. By reducing the amount of energy
needed by the industry to produce the goods, will off course reduce the
amount of emission of those dangerous gases.
The scope of this study is the data cars number and characteristics
that is shown in Tables 1, 2 and 3. So we evaluate the reduction of fuel
consumption by annual efficiency improvement and the effect of that in
cost and emission decline.
2. Survey Data
2.1. Introduction
The data required for this study are Number of cars, characteristices
of potential fuel saving of cars and petrol fuel emission in each litre. Table
1,2 and 3 that are shown in below are consist of these data.
2.3. Summery
3. Methodology
3.1. Introduction
9
This section discusses the methodology of the study. The main
purpose of the study is to demonstrate the visual diagrams of the
obtained values. Although the end results might not be an accurate
picture of the process, but can give a better vision about the car annual
efficiency improvment.
The method used to estimate the rest of the data for calculation is
polynomial curve fitting. The method is attempted to describe the
relationship between variable x as the function of available data and a
response y. It seeks to 77 find a smooth curve that best fits the data, but
does not necessarily pass through any data points. Mathematically, a
polynomial of order k in x is an expression of the form:
BFCsc=BFCYscc×1+AEIicYpd-Ysc (2)
The initial unit energy savings is the difference between the annual
unit energy consumption of a unit meeting the standards and the unit
energy consumption of the average unit that would have been shipped in
the absence of standards. The actual use for a particular appliance will
10
depend on the capacity and usage pattern of the refrigerator-freezers.
Initial unit energy savings can be calculated by the following equations:
UFSsc=BFCsc-SFCsc (3)
3.2.2.3. Shipment
TEIsc=UFSscBFCsc×100%
(5)
The scaling factor would linearly scale down the unit fuel savings of
cars and the incremental cost to zero over the effective lifetime of the
standards. The scaling factor can be expressed as the following equation:
SFic=1-(Yshic-Ysesc)×AEIscTEIsc
(6)
The unit fuel savings were adjusted downward in the years after the
standards is implemented using the efficiency trend scaling factors. This
factor accounts for the natural progress in efficiency expected in the
baseline case. The unit energy savings for cars can be calculated by the
following equation:
11
UFSic=SFic×UESsc (7)
SSFic=1-[YtcTc-Yshic-23Lc(4/3-2/3)×Lc]
(8)
ASic=Shic×SSFic+ASi-1c (9)
FSic=i=sTASic×UESic×SFic (10)
12
Initial incremental cost per unit of refrigerator-freezer is a function of
unit energy savings and incremental cost and can be calculated using the
following equation:
IICIc=UESsc×ICc (11)
d
CRF =
(1 − (1 + d ) −T )
(12)
3.2.3.3.Bill savings
BSiL=ESiL×PFi
(13)
3.2.3.4.Net savings
ANSiL=ESiL×PFi-i=lTNRiL×CRF×IClL
(14)
The second method is the cash flow over the lifetime of the more
efficient car, where the working of car is paid for full when it is bought.
The purchasers incur the incremental cost when the efficient car is
13
purchased, but the benefit of higher energy efficiency is spreads over the
lifetime of the car. The net savings in term of actual cash flows is
calculated by the following equation:
NSiL=ESiL×PFi-NRiL×IClL
(15)
PVANSiL=i=lTANSiL(1+d)(1-Ydr)
(16)
ERiL=FSiL×(PEi1×EMp1+PEi2×EMp2+…+PEin×EMpn
(17)
3.3. Summery
4.1. Introduction
4.2. Results
The result of calculation using the listed formulas for fuel savings, bill savings, and
emission reduction, are presented as follows:
15
Fig. 1 shows that, the annual fuel savings from cars standards increase sharply in the
beginning of the analysis period. Over time, the projected technological improvement in the
baseline begins to catch up to standards. Since the savings on each unit are calculated relative
to the baseline unit in the year the unit was purchased, the savings on new units is lower in
later years, since the baseline energy consumption has declined. Referring to Fig. 1, the
standard is only effective for about 8 years from 2010 to 2018.
The annual efficiency improvement program starting in 2010 will save about
33068.2 Mil.liter fuel from 2010 to 2018. The calculation result is the minimum amount
which can be saved due to implementing of annual efficiency improvement for cars that
produce in duration of this year. But in actual case there are many inefficient cars that
exceeding the standards sold in the Malaysian market. The calculation result of cost benefit
analysis is tabulated in Table 6 and presented in Fig. 2. The programs will result of bill
savings RM 74403 Mil., annualized net dollar savings is RM 43563 Mil., net savings RM
43058 Mil., and cumulative present value of annualized net savings is about RM 39160 Mil.,
after 8 years of implementation.
16
2014 8560250144 4431355901 4672723165 3380660200
2015 5983128891 2288145831 2671676487 1631416354
2016 3501038768 496525922 1067895485 330856187
2017 1466119598 -595171899 -135064003 -370643147
2018 214569096 -619469447 -408424023 -360536858
(Figure 2, Calculation result of cost benefit analysis of efficiency improvement for cars)
This study has proved that introducing standard of annual efficiency improvement for
cars offer great benefits for the consumers, governments as well as the environment, which is
not considered in this paper. If we want to have an opinion about how changing policy from
Business as usual to new standard policy give us fuel saving we can compare the fuel
consumption prediction of cars in duration of 8 years from 2010 to 2018 due to implementing
annual efficiency improvement in cars. Fuel consumption by BAU in 2010 to 2018 is
predicted to be about 405089 Mil.liter and By STD is about 372021 Mil.liter that show 33068
Mil.liter reductions in fuel consumption-that is a great value.
4.3.Summery
18
5. Conclution
The standards indirectly also reduce the environmental pollution. The study has
shown that implementation of annual efficiency improvement for car is economically
reliable. The consumers will pay higher purchase prices for appliances, but luckily will pay
less for fuel and have less affect on environment by producing emission. Once the standards
is implemented, inefficient product will be push out from the market. If most of the products
exceed the standards, it will become irrelevant. Therefore, the standards must be periodically
revised to continued progress in improving appliance efficiency.
19
Reference
20