FWCE 455 - Environmental Risks and Decisions Syllabus, Fall 2012

May 29, 2012

Instructor

Dr. Mark C. Andersen Professor, Department of Fish Wildlife and Conservation Ecology Associate Dean, Honors College Oce: 204 Conroy Honors Center and 126 Knox Hall Phone: 646-8034 email: via Canvas preferred Oce hours:

Class meeting

Class meets Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays, 1:30 to 2:20, in GT 190. This is a very large lecture hall; please sit near the front. Also, please be on time; attendence is expected.

Required materials

Mark Burgman, 2005. Risks and Decisions for Conservation and Environmental Management. Cambridge University Press. Other readings and resources as assigned; these will be made available through the course web site on Canvas.

Course description

This course is about risk assessment and decision analysis in the context of environmental and conservation issues. Prerequisites include MATH 142 or equivalent, A ST 311 or equivalent, and FWCE 301 or equivalent.

Course objectives
Basic probability concepts The taxonomy of uncertainty

Students will demonstrate understanding of:

 Problems with common-sense risk perception The precautionary principle and other alternatives to standard risk assessments The basic outline of the risk assessment process Regional risk assessment Quantitative methods for ecological risk assessment Tree-structured models of fault and decision processes The uses of Bayesian belief networks in ecological risk assessment The application of statistical decision theory in ecological risk assessment

Class policies

Team work: Much of the work each student does in this class will be done as a member of a team. You are expected to do your share of all assigned team work. If you will be absent on a day when there is team work to be done, you must notify the other members of your team as well as notifying your instructor. Your teammates will evaluate your contribution to the teams performance at the end of the semester. Absence: For an absence to be excused, I must be notied in advance of the absence and provided with some form of documentation. The student will be responsible for all assigned work even in the case of an excused absence. Student behavior: Students are expected to show consideration for the learning environment. This includes respecting others, using appropriate and civil language, and adherence to the NMSU Student Code of Conduct. Deadlines: Assigned written work is due in class or in Blackboard (as specied by the instructor) on the date indicated wen the work was assigned. If you know you are going to be absent on the day an assignment is due, turn the work in before you leave. Late work will receive an automatic 10% deduction for each day past the due date. Extra credit: Extra credit will not be oered. Incomplete grade: Incomplete grades will only be assigned in extreme circumstance and only if the student provides thorough documentation of an extraordinary circumstance which precludes completion of the course. If such a circumstance arises prior to the last date to withdraw, the student should withdraw from the course rather than seeking an incomplete grade. The student must have completed at least half the course and be passing at the time the circumstance occurs. Plagiarism: Cheating or plagiarism in any form will not be tolerated. Suspected instances of cheating or plagiarism will be dealt with according to applicable NMSU policies. For further information on plagiarism, see http://lib.nmsu.edu/plagiarism/. Cell phones: Please keep cell phones silent during the class; if you anticipate an emergency call during class, notify the instructor.

Grading

See Figures 1 and 2 for an explanation of the grading scheme used in this course.

Figure 1: Values for exams and assignments in determining nal grade

Figure 2: Grading scale

Students with disabilities

Feel free to call Diana Quintana, Coordinator or Student Accessibility Services at 575-646-6840 with any questions you may have on student issues related to the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) and/or Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973. All medical information will be treated condentially. Feel free to call Gerard Nevarez, Director of Institutional Equity at 575-646-3635 with any questions you may have about NMSUs Non-discrimination Policy and complaint of discrimination, including sexual harassment. Feel free to call Gerard Nevarez, Director of Institutional Equity at 575646-3635 with any questions you may have about NMSUs Non-discrimination Policy and complaint of discrimination, including sexual harassment.

Course Schedule (tentative)

Date 24 Aug 27 Aug 29 Aug 31 Aug 3 Sept 5 Sept 7 Sept 10 Sept 12 Sept 14 Sept 17 Sept 19 Sept 21 Sept 24 Sept 26 Sept 28 Sept 1 Oct 3 Oct 5 Oct 8 Oct 10 Oct 12 Oct 15 Oct 17 Oct 19 Oct 22 Oct Topic Administrivia Course introduction Risk and uncertainty Probability concepts Taxonomy of uncertainty 1 HOLIDAY Taxonomy of uncertainty 2 Uncertainty discussion Issues with risk perception Risk perception discussion Meet with teams Team project 1 Team project 1 The Precautionary Principle Precautionary Principle Discussion Sustainability Metrics and Alternative Scenarios Risk Assessment in various disciplines The Risk Management Paradigm Regional Risk Assessment Meet with teams Team Project 2 Team Project 2 Conceptual models Conceptual models Discussion Monte Carlo models Population viability analysis (PVA) Endangered species PVA Discussion Chapter 5 See course web site Chapter 10 Exam 1 closes Reading Syllabus Team project scenarios Chapter 1 See course web site Chapter 2 Due

Week 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10

Probability quiz

See course web site See course web site

Presentations Reports See course web site

Chapter 3 Chapter 6 Exam 1 available Presentations Reports

See course web site

10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 16

24 Oct 26 Oct 29 Oct 31 Oct 2 Nov 5 Nov 7 Nov 9 Nov 12 Nov 14 Nov 16 Nov 19 Nov 21 Nov 23 Nov 26 Nov 28 Nov 30 Nov 3 Dec 5 Dec 7 Dec 10 Dec

Invasive species PVA Discussion Risk assessment examples Risk assessment examples Risk assessment examples Risk assessment examples Meet with teams Team Journal Club Team Journal Club Logic Trees Event and Decision Trees Bayesian Belief Networks 1 HOLIDAY HOLIDAY HOLIDAY Bayesian Belief Networks 2 Statistical Decision Analysis 1 Statistical Decision Analysis 2 Meet with teams Team project 3 Team project 3 Final Exam 1:00-3:00

See course web site

Chapter 8

Paper summaries Event tree Homework

Chapter 11 Chapter 12

BBN Homework

Exam 2 available Presentations Reports Exam 2 open through 14 Dec