Sea

Level Rise Impacts in Australia

CSIRO climate adapta0on Flagship
www.csiro.au

Water Working Group Med City Conference 2012

First Pass Assessment Modelling and Mapping Communica0ng Impacts

Na0onal First Pass Coastal Risk Assessment

22,000 miles of coastline 4 major coastal regions 85 % of popula9on Assumed 1.1 m SLR (3 feet) Help priori9ze adapta9on op9ons

Coastal urbanisa0on and popula0on growth

Urban population: 1) Spread along coastline 2) Concentrated in 5 cities 3) Urban density low 4) <1% of land area

Population Distribution 2006

Source: 2008 Australian Yearbook

Coastal Regions

Region 2 Limestone South and West Small 9des Carbonate rocks High wave energy High wind energy

Social & Economic Value

Transporta9on Mineral, oil and gas produc9on Fishing Tourism Sea Change phenomenon

Climate Change Projec0ons

SLR > 1m by end 2100 Frequency of extreme events increasing Increased shoreline erosion Tropical cyclones tracking further south Sea level wont stablize

Western Australia - Impacts

Erosion Inunda9on Salina9on
Existing Residential Buildings at risk from 1.1m SLR [WA only]

First Pass Assessment Modelling and Mapping Communica0ng Impacts

Components of Coastal Inunda0on

Data Integra0on

State-based assessments of extreme sea level return periods due to storm surges and 0des
1 in 100 year storm tide heights for Victoria

metres

Storm 9de values used as a basis for es9ma9ng poten9al future inunda9on from sea level rise

Modelling and mapping inunda0on in Victoria: Example for Aspendale

in Port Phillip Bay

Mordialloc
Mord ialloc

Crk

Aspendale

Braeside

Edithvale Chelsea Bonbeach

r Rive rson e Patt Patterson Lakes

Exposed land parcels under scenario 1 ~65% increase to 2030 under A1FI SLR only ~640% increase to 2070 ~3750% increase to 2100

Seaford

First Pass Assessment Modelling and Mapping Communica0ng Impacts

Lake council backdown on sea level

Sec9on 149 property cer9cates Federal Agency GeoScience Australia creates maps Class ac9on proposed against council for devaluing property Ini9ally 10,000 proper9es notated for SLR now 4450 Disclaimer should not be relied upon for making nancial or any other commitments

Thank you
CSIRO Climate Adapta0on Flagship Dr Ma_hew Inman Ma_hew.Inman@csiro.au
CSIRO CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP