Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1AC – Inherency
Observation One is Inherency:
No solar plants on federal land now – The Bureau of Land Management is half-stepping on
contracts for solar plants – this destroys investor confidence in the solar industry
Werner, Associated Press Writer. July 2008. (Erica, the Huffington Post,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/02/solar-moratorium-scrapped_n_110552.html, accessed July 6, 2008)
BLM has yet to approve a solar project on federal land; the solar projects already built or under way
in this country are on private property. Still, industry officials already impatient about the BLM's pace
worried that putting a stop to new applications would allow other industries to lay claim to federal
land that could go to solar. They feared it would also send the wrong signal to potential investors just
as the solar industry is getting started. "Hitting the brakes before we'd really gotten off the ground was
definitely a scary prospect for the industry," said Katherine Gensler, manager of regulatory and legislative
affairs for the Solar Energy Industries Association. BLM Director James Caswell said the agency's action
Wednesday was intended to address such concerns. "By continuing to accept and process new applications
for solar energy projects, we will aggressively help meet growing interest in renewable energy sources, while
ensuring environmental protections," he said in a statement.
Concentrated Solar Power, or CSP, works but needs land area – federal intervention is key
– CSP is the only form of solar that can be cost competitive with fossil fuels
NREL 07 Report to Congress on Assessent of Potential Impact of Concentrating Solar Power for Electricity
Generation February 2007 National Renewable Energy Laboratory http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy07osti/41233.pdf
The 2000 NRC review found that a major hurdle facing CSP technologies was that they must be
relatively large to be competitive, and that large installations are expensive. Parabolic troughs have
demonstrated performance and reliability over 20 years of operation in California,24 and the technical
feasibility of power tower systems was proven during the mid-1990’s with the 10 MW Solar Two
project.25 Both technologies, however, require scales approaching those of fossil-fueled power plants to
achieve cost competitiveness with conventional means of electricity generation. Just as for new generation
fossil and nuclear plants, such large first-of-a-kind CSP plants are expensive. This led the NRC to
conclude “unless there is a significant market intervention by the Federal and/or State governments, an
economically feasible project in the United States will not be possible.”26 In addition, it would take
several projects to bring the cost down to competitive levels. During a period of restructuring in the utility
sector in the 1990s and into the new millennium, there was little incentive for taking a risk on expensive new
technologies. A 100 MW CSP plant, for example, could cost $300 million. Further, deregulated utilities had
few resources to invest in new technologies. The CSP industry was faced with the conundrum that its
technology was too expensive to be deployed even though deployment could have led to lower cost for
future CSP installations. This is the same challenge faced by many other innovative power plant
technologies as they enter the competitive, commodity-based energy market.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 6
Maurer/Moore/Rekhi Solar Power Aff
1AC Inherency
Renewable energy shift inevitable – RPS’s at the state level are pushing utilities into wind
power
NREL 07 Report to Congress on Assessent of Potential Impact of Concentrating Solar Power for Electricity
Generation February 2007 National Renewable Energy Laboratory http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy07osti/41233.pdf
Chief among the state policies to promote renewables are renewable portfolio standards (RPS’s) which
require that a specific portion of a state’s electricity consumption be met by renewable energy by a certain
year. California’s RPS goal, for example, is 20 percent of total generation from renewable resources by
2010.47 Table 3 lists the requirements of the RPS’s in the six Southwestern States.48 Nevada’s RPS requires
each electricity provider to generate 9 percent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2007 and 20
percent by 2015. Furthermore, it requires that 5 percent of the electricity obtained from renewable sources in
each year must be acquired from solar energy systems.49 In addition to its RPS, New Mexico has established
a Task Force to assess the feasibility of a CSP project. Recommendations from the Task Force to the
Governor are currently pending.50 It is important to note that unless a state RPS has a carve-out
requirement for solar, utilities will most often pursue the cheapest renewable energy projects, which to
date has been wind energy in most states. However, these policies have led to the establishment of several
CSP projects since 2004. A list of those projects is provided in Appendix A.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 7
Maurer/Moore/Rekhi Solar Power Aff
1AC Inherency
Empirically- shift to wind will not be adequate protection against grid instability
Dixon 06 Wind Generation's Performance during the July 2006 California Heat Storm 9.8.06 David Dixon,
Nuclear Engineer, US DOE, Oakland Operations
http://www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_display.cfm?a_id=1332
While wind generation has the benefits outlined above and is enjoying wide success, there has been a
remaining controversy about its availability 24/7. It is virtually a cliché that the wind is fickle; it blows in
different directions and different strengths seemingly at random. As such there has been some concern about
how often will the wind blow and produce electricity, and when electricity is needed will the wind be there?
Everyone has experienced a really hot day when the air is absolutely still, or a really cold, still night. This
concern with the 24/7 availability of wind generation translates to questions about backup capacity to satisfy
peak demand, i.e. the first energy policy imperative - Assurance of Supply. This question may be academic
most of the year when there is adequate back up capacity and even if the wind is still for a while other
electric plants will pick up the slack. But during periods of peak demand, typically in mid-summer or
mid-winter the question is very important. That was certainly the case this July during the record heat
waves in California, then the East Coast and finally the Southern States. Each region in turn experienced
record demand and issued pleas for conservation; commentators expressed concern about blackouts. Under
these conditions, the 24/7 availability of wind generation is not an academic question. Over the last few
years, two schools of thought have developed about wind’s 24/7 availability. The first – ‘this is really not a
problem’. Proponents argue, ‘yes the wind is fickle, but wind turbines are being installed in many, many
windy locations and when one location is still, you may expect others to be gusty. Thus wind will have
excellent 24/7 availability’. Others are concerned, ‘blackouts are very dangerous and simply not
acceptable. Maybe we need to build back-up generation for wind assets and maybe include such
backup in cost calculations, or otherwise significantly discount wind generation when analyzing total
grid capacity vs. peak demand?’ Both schools have their advocates, and to date the controversy is
unresolved. With this understanding of the 24/7 availability controversy in mind, the recent experience of
California is interesting. California has been a pioneer in alternative electricity generation with many decades
of service from significant geothermal and wind facilities. The Alamont Pass area, about 50 miles south east
of San Francisco was the nation’s first significant wind facility. With that start, California today has 2,500
MW of installed wind capacity. That is, these facilities are not being planned or under construction, they are
built and on line. 2,500 MW is a big number; a large nuclear plant is 1,000 MW, a large coal plant is 500 to
800 MW, individual wind turbines are 2 to 20 MW. Most significantly, wind is now approaching 5% of
California’s total electric generating capacity. California’s electric grid planners want 7% to 15% of reserve
capacity between predicted total demand and total generating capacity; as such the 24/7 reliability of their
wind capacity, again 5% of California’s total capacity, is important. So what happened in California during
the mid-July heat storm when that electric grid was put to the test, and California avoided rolling
blackouts amid a Level 1 Emergency in which Californian’s were asked to raise their thermostats to 77
and many manufactures and business voluntarily shutdown? By most people’s analysis, wind’s
performance was disappointing. Specifically during this period of peak demand, statewide wind often
operated at only 5% of capacity, or less. The specific data is plotted in the attached graph. The upper line
shows the peak daily electric demand as recorded by the California Independent System Operator, CASIO,
during the heat storm. Daily peak power usage increased fairly steadily in mid July, reaching its peak on July
24 at 50,270 MW. Wind’s availability during this same period is presented in the lower line. Specifically this
is the percent of the CASIO available wind capacity, 2,500MW, which was actually putting electricity into
the CASIO grid at the time of peak demand on each day plotted. By most measures these numbers are
disappointing. On the day of peak demand, August 24, 2006, wind power produced at 254.6 MW at the
time of peak demand. 254.6 MW represents only 10.2% of wind’s rated capacity of 2,500MW. Another
perspective on the data, over the preceding seven days, August 17 to 23, wind produced at 89.4 to 113.0 MW,
averaging only 99.1 MW at the time of peak demand or just 4% of rated capacity. This data presents wind’s
performance during roughly two week’s of only one heat storm, California’s July ’06 storm. This author
recommends caution in reaching larger conclusions about its significance. However as a minimum the data
suggests that analysis of wind’s performance during periods of peak demand in other grid systems with
different wind sited facilities would be useful. And until other such data is available, this experience implies
caution in assuming a significant fraction of wind capacity will be available for periods of peak
demand such as California’s July level 1 emergency.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 8
Maurer/Moore/Rekhi Solar Power Aff
1AC – Plan
Plan: The United States federal government should amend Title V of the Federal Land
Policy Management Act and Bureau of Land Management right of way regulations to
replace the “fair market value” standard for rental rates of public lands for concentrated
solar power plants. The rental rate for concentrated solar power plants should be set at the
same rate as livestock grazing. We’ll clarify.
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ONE:
Investor Confidence,
Plan spurs an economic boom by invigorating alt-energy stocks – venture capitalists see
solar as the new internet stock – they perceive peak oil, rising energy prices, and impending
carbon taxes and want alternatives – they’ll look to solar and wind now – spurring
investment leads to an economic boom
Economist 2008 (“The power and the glory,” June 21, accessed on July 14, 2008
http://www.economist.com/specialreports/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11565685)
The next technology boom may well be based on alternative energy, says Geoffrey Carr. But which sort to
back ?EVERYONE loves a booming market, and most booms happen on the back of technological change. The
world?s venture capitalists, having fed on the computing boom of the 1980s, the internet boom of the 1990s and the biotech and
nanotech boomlets of the early 2000s, are now looking around for the next one. They think they have found it: energy.
Many past booms have been energy-fed: coal-fired steam power, oil-fired internal-combustion engines, the rise of
electricity, even the mass tourism of the jet era. But the past few decades have been quiet on that front. Coal has been cheap.
Natural gas has been cheap. The 1970s aside, oil has been cheap. The one real novelty, nuclear power, went
spectacularly off the rails. The pressure to innovate has been minimal. In the space of a couple of years, all that has
changed. Oil is no longer cheap; indeed, it has never been more expensive. Moreover, there is growing
concern that the supply of oil may soon peak as consumption continues to grow, known supplies run
out and new reserves become harder to find. The idea of growing what you put in the tank of your car, rather than sucking
it out of a hole in the ground, no longer looks like economic madness. Nor does the idea of throwing away the tank and plugging your
car into an electric socket instead. Much of the world?s oil is in the hands of governments who have little
sympathy with the rich West. When a former head of America?s Central Intelligence Agency allies himself
with tree-hugging greens that his outfit would once have suspected of subversion, you know something is up. Yet that is one tack
James Woolsey is trying in order to reduce his country?s dependence on imported oil. The price of natural
gas, too, has risen in sympathy with oil. That is putting up the cost of electricity. Wind- and solar-powered
alternatives no longer look so costly by comparison. It is true that coal remains cheap, and is the favoured fuel for
power stations in industrialising Asia. But the rich world sees things differently. In theory, there is a long queue of coal-fired
power stations waiting to be built in America. But few have been completed in the past 15 years and
many in that queue have been put on hold or withdrawn, for two reasons. First, Americans have become
intolerant of large, polluting industrial plants on their doorsteps. Second, American power companies are
fearful that they will soon have to pay for one particular pollutant, carbon dioxide, as is starting to happen
in other parts of the rich world. Having invested heavily in gas-fired stations, only to find themselves
locked into an increasingly expensive fuel, they do not want to make another mistake. That has opened
up a capacity gap and an opportunity for wind and sunlight. The future price of these resources—zero
—is known. That certainty has economic value as a hedge, even if the capital cost of wind and solar
power stations is, at the moment, higher than that of coal-fired ones. The reasons for the boom, then, are tangled,
and the way they are perceived may change. Global warming, a long-range phenomenon, may not be uppermost in people?s minds
during an economic downturn. High fuel prices may fall as new sources of supply are exploited to fill rising
demand from Asia. Security of supply may improve if hostile governments are replaced by friendly ones and sources become
more diversified. But none of the reasons is likely to go away entirely.
TWO:
Energy Grid,
Rising energy demand makes blackouts inevitable- need new supplies
Ascribe Newswire 08 July 10, 2008 Thursday 8:54 AM PDT Projected California Warming Promises Cycle of
More Heat Waves, Energy Use for Next Century, l/n
"Electricity demand for industrial and home cooling increases near linearly with temperature," said
lead author Miller, a climate scientist and a principal investigator with the Energy Biosciences Institute in
Berkeley. "In the future, widespread climate warming across the western U.S. could further strain the
electricity grid, making brownouts or even rolling blackouts more frequent." When projected future
changes in extreme heat and observed relationships between high temperature and electricity demand for
California are mapped onto current availability, the researchers discovered a potential for electricity deficits
as high as 17 percent during peak electricity demand periods. Climate projections from three atmosphere-
ocean general circulation models were used to assess projected increases in temperature extremes and day-to-
day variability, said Hayhoe. Increases range from approximately twice the present-day number of extreme
heat days for inland California cities such as Sacramento and Fresno, to up to four times the number of
extreme heat days for previously temperate coastal cities such as Los Angeles and San Diego before the end
of the century. This year, California experienced an unusually early heat wave in May and is currently in the
midst of its second major heat wave of the summer, one that has already broken high temperature records for
several more California cities and increased fire and health risks. One hundred and nineteen new daily high
temperature records were set during the May heat wave, including the earliest day in the year in which Death
Valley temperatures reached 120 degrees F (on May 19, beating the old record of May 25 set in 1913). In the
future, the authors say, the state should brace for summers dominated by heat wave conditions such as those
experienced this year. Extreme heat and heat wave events have already triggered major electricity
shortages, most notably in the summer of 2006. Given past events, the results of this study suggest that
future increases in peak electricity demand may challenge current and future electricity supply and
transmission capacities.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 11
Maurer/Moore/Rekhi Solar Power Aff
Independently, Blackouts risk reactor meltdowns which will kill hundreds of thousands
Vann 03 The US blackout and “homeland security” By Bill Vann 20 August 2003
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2003/aug2003/sec-a20.shtml
Nine nuclear power reactors were forced to shut down during the blackout. Had the diesel generators
used to maintain essential operations at any one of these plants failed, a catastrophic nuclear meltdown
would have occurred. Reports submitted to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission after the blackout
noted that the emergency sirens used to warn of such a meltdown were knocked out at both the Indian
Point and Ginna nuclear plants in New York. Had a meltdown taken place at one of these plants,
hundreds of thousands of people in surrounding communities would have received deadly doses of
radiation without even being aware of what has happening.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 12
Maurer/Moore/Rekhi Solar Power Aff
FOUR:
High tech Jobs,
A Healthy Solar industry creates massive amounts of high-tech labor
Fried 07 (Sustainable Business, 05/16/2007 Rona Fried, Ph.D., Solar Provides Clean Energy, and Also Creates
Jobs, http://www.sustainablebusiness.com/index.cfm/go/news.feature/id/1449)
As exciting as the rise of solar energy is in its ability to provide the world with clean electricity, equally as
compelling is the industry's ability to create well paying, life enhancing jobs. Several studies come to
same conclusion: solar - and renewable energy jobs in general - are much more impressive job creators
than the fossil fuel industry, creating 10 times the jobs. A widely quoted University of California (UC)
report concludes we can expect 86,370 new energy jobs in the U.S. by 2020 if we continue with our
current energy mix. But if 20 percent of our energy were to come from renewable sources, then 188,000
to 240,850 jobs could be created, depending on the proportion of wind, solar and biomass energy. The
American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy estimates that 1.1 million jobs could be created in the
next 10 years through investments in energy efficiency technology.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 13
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FIVE:
Competitiveness,
Solar key to tech competitiveness which is key to the economy
DOE 08 (http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/to_economy.html - accessed July 9, 2008. DOE = Department of
Energy)
Technological leadership is necessary for economic competitiveness and to make solar electricity a
significant contributor to the nation's economy. Mounting foreign investments have eroded U.S.
market share and have overtaken our R&D lead on the technology front. To secure our future, we must
strengthen and expand our investments. We must take our core R&D and other intellectual resources
and integrate them with U.S. industry's best interests — resulting in sound and well-conceived
programs and sustained investments that clearly support and guide U.S. PV industry leadership
worldwide. Sustained partnerships between the U.S. solar electric industry and national laboratories and
universities are a critical element of this effort.
Finally,
Economic downturn leads to nuclear war
Mead 1992 (Sir Walter Russell, New Perspectives Quarterly, p. 30 Summer)
If so, this new failure – the failure to develop an international system to hedge against the possibility of
worldwide depression – will open their eyes to their folly. Hundreds of millions – billions – of people around
the world have pinned their hopes on the international market economy. They and their leaders have
embraced market principles – and drawn closer to the West – because they believe our system can work for
them. But what if it can't? What if the global economy stagnates – or even shrinks? In that case, we will
face a new period of international conflict: South against North, rich against poor. Russia, China, India
– these countries with their billions of people and their nuclear weapons will pose a much greater
danger to world order than Germany and Japan did in the '30s.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 14
Maurer/Moore/Rekhi Solar Power Aff
CSP solves – it is the most cost-competitive renewable energy and will generate massive
amounts of energy without environmental impact
The Economist 07 Trapping sunlight; solar power, September 15, 2007, ln
Thanks to a confluence of factors—a federal tax credit, an uptick in federal funding for renewable
energy R&D, the enactment of renewable electricity standards in many states and public antipathy
toward greenhouse gas-belching coal-fired power plants—the sun is making a comeback. Concentrating
solar power (CSP) is suddenly looking interesting again. CSP systems capture and focus the sun's rays,
using mirrors, to heat a working fluid to high temperatures and use it to drive a turbine. By contrast,
photovoltaic solar power systems, mostly used on home rooftops, let light interact directly with
semiconductor materials to generate power. As a source of large-scale power CSP is less expensive and
more practical, not least because the technology can deliver power for hours after the sun sets using
thermal storage. America's south-western deserts are an abundant source of sunshine that could meet
the country's power needs several times over without releasing a molecule of carbon dioxide. The first
large CSP plant to be built since the 1980s went online in June in Nevada: it will generate 64 megawatts.
Power companies have already signed long-term agreements with developers such as Stirling Energy
Systems of Phoenix to buy up to 2,300 megawatts of CSP electricity from them. That is paltry compared with
the nation's total electricity capacity of over 1m megawatts: but the Energy Department says at least 7,000
megawatts from CSP plants will be available by 2020. Meanwhile, large international CSP companies, such
as Acciona Energy and Abengoa of Spain, and Solel of Israel, are busily setting up shop in America.
Electricity from the new plant in Nevada costs an estimated 17 cents per kilowatt hour (kWh), but
projections suggest that CSP power could fall to below ten cents per kWh as the technology improves.
Coal power costs just 2-3 cents per kWh. But that will rise if (as seems likely) regulation eventually
factors in the environmental costs of the carbon coal produces. And CSP purveyors have a powerful
friend: Harry Reid of Nevada, the Democratic leader in the Senate. Mr Reid recently declared that he will
fight to prevent any new coal-fired plants in his state—or even nationwide.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 15
Maurer/Moore/Rekhi Solar Power Aff
1AC – Solvency
Public lands key to solar power development- investment now key to bringing down costs
making solar competitive and capable of meeting all of US energy needs – environmental
impact is small
Bar-Lev 07 Statement of Joshua Bar-Lev, Vice President of Regulatory Affairs, BrightSource Energy VERSIGHT
HEARING before the SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES Thursday, April 19, 2007
http://bulk.resource.org/gpo.gov/hearings/110h/34825.txt
I will come back to SEIA's policy recommendations to the Subcommittee in a moment, but let me start with
an important basic foundation for the U.S. CSP industry--our unique national resource-- plentiful,
flat, non-environmentally sensitive desert land in the West that has high solar insolation, low cloud
cover and is in proximity to gas and electric transmission lines, highways and urban load centers.
This CSP quality land is largely public land managed for multiple uses including energy production by the
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management (BLM). BLM reported that as of April 1, 2007
there are 43 solar applications pending in California, Arizona and Nevada with 34 in California alone. As
recently as the end of 2004, there was no expressed interest in CSP development on BLM public lands.
Enactment of California's renewable portfolio standard and favorable tax policies led to the filing of these
BLM applications--most over the last eight months. In 2003, BLM and the Department of Energy (DOE),
National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) issued a GIS-based report, ``Assessing the Potential for
Renewable Energy on Public Lands.'' See http://www.nrel.gov/docs/ fy03osti/33530.pdf. More recently, in
support of the WGA CDEAC initiative, NREL has mapped the best locations for solar energy on public
lands in Arizona, California, Nevada, and New Mexico. The NREL report and GIS maps identify
areas with 1 percent or less of slope with high levels of solar insolation for utility-grade CSP plants. I
have attached the multi-state and California CSP maps prepared by NREL. Ex. 3
(http://www.nrel.gov/csp/maps.html). The NREL study ``filtered out'' unsuitable land that had too
much slope (mountains), was too cloudy, too environmentally sensitive, in or near Wilderness, Parks
or other unsuitable areas. The result will not surprise any of you from the West. The western United
States has some of the best solar radiation areas in the entire world. Conservatively, there is enough
land using today's utility scale technology to generate at least 7000GW of solar energy. This 7000GW
of potential solar energy is about seven times the total United States demand capacity. To give you a
sense of scale, California's peak demand capacity is 60GW. California alone has at least 6000 square miles
of ideal desert terrain for CSP. However, if we limit the development of CSP to high- potential solar areas
that also have proximity to gas and electric transmission lines, we can conservatively estimate that we have
ideal desert land for at least 200GW. How do we bridge the cost gap to get utility scale solar energy to
be competitive with conventional and other renewable fuels? Energy experts believe that a concerted
effort to develop somewhere around 4GW (which represents about 10% of the expected growth in peak
load for the western states) of CSP in the next decade will bring the cost down to competitive levels,
through R&D, economies of scale and learning curve benefits. The WGA study found that development
of as little as 4GW will bring the cost of solar down to fewer than 10 cents a kWh, which is equivalent
to $7 per MMBTU gas. Production of 4GW of CSP energy will have major economic benefits-- one
study by Black and Veatch estimates that 4GW will produce a $22 billion increase in gross state
product, including 13,000 construction jobs, 1,100 permanent jobs and $2 billion in state tax revenues.
And this 4GW will conservatively displace almost 8 million tons of CO2, which is 7% of California's
electric utility output of carbon.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 16
Maurer/Moore/Rekhi Solar Power Aff
1AC – Solvency
Lowering rents key incentive to attract CSP development on federal lands
Bar-Lev 07 Statement of Joshua Bar-Lev, Vice President of Regulatory Affairs, BrightSource Energy VERSIGHT
HEARING before the SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES Thursday, April 19, 2007
http://bulk.resource.org/gpo.gov/hearings/110h/34825.txt
Right of way fees charged by BLM for the rental of public lands for CSP projects or for the proposed
CSP solar parks should be at the lowest cost for the use of public lands as an incentive to develop
solar energy, rather than the highest rental cost. Today, Title V of the Federal Land Policy
Management Act (43 U.S.C. Sec. 1761) and BLM right of way regulations (43 C.F.R. Sec. 2804) require
``fair market value'' for the rental of public land. See also Ex. 1, BLM IM 2007-096 at 2, 4-5. BLM
solar policy currently directs that annual rent for CSP be established by BLM using appraised values
for ``commercial land or industrial land, as of the date of the appraisal.'' Id. at 4. Thus the rental for
CSP is at the highest rental rate for the use of public land--a rate charged for coal-fired power plants
or other industrial facilities. For example, in an existing Boulder City, NV example, the fair market
value for a CSP facility amounts to $25,000 per acre and several millions of dollars per year in rent.
We would ask Congress to direct a specific per acre rental fee for CSP that would be at a dollar
amount to create an incentive for solar energy production from public lands. We would suggest that
the CSP rental for public lands be closer to the assessed value of the land for livestock grazing rather
than the value of the land for industrial facilities.
CSP in the southwest is key – Concentrated solar power solves energy demand at peak and
non-peak times – people run their air conditioners when its hot, which is when CSP
produces the most energy – heat storage solves non-peak demand making CSP the most
cost-efficient form of solar power – plan solves intermittency issues across the grid
Lockwood 08 Testimony of Barbara D. Lockwood, P.E., Manager, Renewable Energy Arizona Public Service
Company Before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science and Technology, Subcommittee on
Energy and Environment “Utility Scale Solar Power: Opportunities and Obstacles” March 17, 2008
http://democrats.science.house.gov/Media/File/Commdocs/hearings/2008/Energy/17mar/Lockwood_Testimony.pdf
One of the most important aspects of Solana is its ability to capture and store solar energy for later use. By
incorporating large insulated tanks filled with molten salt, heat captured during the day can be stored
and used to produce electricity when the sun is no longer shining. The molten salt and heavily insulated
tanks are able to retain heat with very high efficiency, and the stored heat can then be extracted in the
evening or even the following day to create electricity. The stored heat not only increases the total
amount of electricity generated, it also adds specific operating benefits for APS. The ability to use
stored heat on demand, also referred to as "dispatching," allows APS to respond to customer usage
patterns and emergency energy needs more effectively. Most southwest utilities experience their
highest customer demand during the summer months. While the power need is substantial in the
middle of the day, peak energy demand occurs in the late afternoon and into the early evening hours.
Because it can provide energy even after the sun has set, the solar trough with thermal energy storage
provides the maximum value for APS and its customers. Diversification of generation resources is
critical to maintaining a reliable electric system and concentrating solar power provides a significant
opportunity to diversify energy resources. In addition, the costs to construct and maintain
concentrating solar power plants have declined while at the same time equipment and labor costs,
rising fuel prices and emissions concerns are increasing the risks of conventional resources.
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Maurer/Moore/Rekhi Solar Power Aff
1AC – Solvency
Plan creates an essential incubation period that will allow solar power to develop –voting
aff is a shot in the arm to the entire solar industry – empirical solvency for investor
confidence
Dr. Arnold Leitner 02, Senior Consultant at RDI Consulting and PhD in Superconductor Physics, July 2002,
Fuel From the Sky: Solar Power’s Potential for Western Energy Supply, http://www.nrel.gov/csp/pdfs/32160.pdf
Even though some solar generating technologies could benefit from research and development, it was
made clear that solar resources are abundant; are located where they are needed; that efficiencies from
concentrating solar power (CSP) are good enough to justify deployment; and cost projections are very
promising. All that solar power required, in the opinion of the experts, is an incubation period, where
incentives are put in place that allow the transition of this emerging generating technology into the
mainstream. It is our view that providing such an incubation period is not a leap of faith, but a proven
recipe of success, as the emergence of wind generating technology in Europe has shown.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 18
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Possible solvency
Bar-Lev 07 INTERCONNECTION ISSUES FACING UTILITY-SCALE SOLAR PROJECTS TECHNICAL
CONFERENCE DECEMBER 11, 2007 PRESENTED BY: JOSHUA BAR-LEV Vice President, Regulatory Affairs,
Brightsource Energy http://www.ferc.gov/eventcalendar/Files/20071211083752-Bar-
Lev,%20Brightsource%20Energy.pdf
BLM: Solar power developers need to have access to potential solar power plant sites on federal lands,
reasonable rent for the sites and timely access to transmission. This requires the integration of the BLM/DOE
Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) process, land use planning under the Federal Land
Policy Management Act, and federal and state laws protecting wildlife, cultural resources and water. All of
these activities impact transmission siting and planning and must be coordinated under EPAct Section 368).
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 24
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Solar energy technology is ready to provide 69% of U.S. electricity, significantly reducing
dependence on fossil fuels and natural gas
Zweibel et. al 07 (Ken, James, Vasilis, Zweibel is president of PrimeStar Solar, 12/16/07, “A Solar Grand Plan”
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=a-solar-grand-plan)
High prices for gasoline and home heating oil are here to stay. The U.S. is at war in the Middle East at
least in part to protect its foreign oil interests. And as China, India and other nations rapidly increase their
demand for fossil fuels, future fighting over energy looms large. In the meantime, power plants that burn
coal, oil and natural gas, as well as vehicles everywhere, continue to pour millions of tons of pollutants
and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere annually, threatening the planet. Well-meaning scientists,
engineers, economists and politicians have proposed various steps that could slightly reduce fossil-fuel use
and emissions. These steps are not enough. The U.S. needs a bold plan to free itself from fossil fuels. Our
analysis convinces us that a massive switch to solar power is the logical answer. Solar energy’s potential
is off the chart. The energy in sunlight striking the earth for 40 minutes is equivalent to global energy
consumption for a year. The U.S. is lucky to be endowed with a vast resource; at least 250,000 square miles
of land in the Southwest alone are suitable for constructing solar power plants, and that land receives more
than 4,500 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) of solar radiation a year. Converting only 2.5 percent of
that radiation into electricity would match the nation’s total energy consumption in 2006. To convert the
country to solar power, huge tracts of land would have to be covered with photovoltaic panels and solar
heating troughs. A direct-current (DC) transmission backbone would also have to be erected to send that
energy efficiently across the nation. The technology is ready. On the following pages we present a grand
plan that could provide 69 percent of the U.S.’s electricity and 35 percent of its total energy (which
includes transportation) with solar power by 2050. We project that this energy could be sold to
consumers at rates equivalent to today’s rates for conventional power sources, about five cents per
kilowatt-hour (kWh). If wind, biomass and geothermal sources were also developed, renewable energy could
provide 100 percent of the nation’s electricity and 90 percent of its energy by 2100.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 25
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Solvency – Incentives
Government incentives key to starting solar industry
Las Vegas Sun 07, Nevada steps closer to solar economy, Dec 22, 2007,
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2007/dec/22/nevada-steps-closer-to-solar-economy/
Without all-important investment tax credits Nevada's solar economy will still grow, thanks to the politics of
climate change and increasing fossil fuel prices, but at a much slower rate, according to David Hassenzahl,
chairman of UNLV's environmental studies department. He compared the solar industry to the oil and
nuclear industries, which would never have been profitable had they not long received huge
government financial support. "Government needs to intervene in (industries) with long-term payback
and large public benefits," he said. Resch said expanding the state's incentive program for residential solar
installation would also stimulate the industry. Sierra Pacific Resources' solar rebate program, which helps
residential customers, small businesses, schools and government agencies pay to install photovoltaic panels,
is in its fifth year. There are a limited number of slots available each year, slots typically fill almost
immediately and there is a waiting list for the program. "I think you can say that Nevada has done a lot to
bring investment in new (solar) manufacturing to the state. But in 2006 New Jersey installed 25 times
more photovoltaic (solar) than Nevada," he said. "The reason: New Jersey provided the incentives to
create a solar market."
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 29
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Solvency – Incentives
Incentives key to CSP development
NREL 07 Report to Congress on Assessent of Potential Impact of Concentrating Solar Power for Electricity
Generation February 2007 National Renewable Energy Laboratory http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy07osti/41233.pdf
The major issue that the NRC raised was the question of whether the deployment figures used by S&L in
projecting cost reductions could be achieved. S&L determined that a deployment of 2.6 GW would result in
the cost of electricity from a solar trough plant being reduced from 12.6 to 6.2 cents/kWh. In its critique, the
NRC concluded that “without substantial incentives, it is very unlikely that CSP trough and tower
markets will evolve, and that if CSP markets are ever to reach cost competitiveness, market incentives
for CSP would again have to be created.”40 Due to the high costs of first-of-a-kind plants, the committee
felt there was little chance that 2.6 GW would be deployed and, because of this, they disagreed with S&L’s
cost projections. However, the NRC agreed with S&L that deployment, should it occur, would affect cost
reduction.
CSP can come online faster than any alternative – design is simple
Joseph Romm 2008, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, April 14, “The technology that will save
humanity,” http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/04/14/solar_electric_thermal/index.html)
The technology has no obvious bottlenecks and uses mostly commodity materials -- steel, concrete and
glass. The central component, a standard power system routinely used by the natural gas industry
today, would create steam to turn a standard electric generator. Plants can be built rapidly -- in two to
three years -- much faster than nuclear plants. It would be straightforward to build CSP systems at
whatever rate industry and governments needed, ultimately 50 to 100 gigawatts a year growth or more.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 32
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CSP plants provide an essential hedge against fossil fuel price increases
NREL 2006, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, April 21, 2006, Economic, Energy, and Environmental
Benefits of Concentrating Solar Power in California, http://www.scribd.com/doc/1590985/Environmental-
Protection-Agency-comment683addattachcomment682
CSP plants provide environmental benefits by generating power without producing criteria and CO2
air emissions. In addition, the use of fixed cost renewable energy generation, such as CSP or wind, can
decrease fossil fuel use and provide a hedge against fossil fuel price increases. While CSP plants may
have environmental benefits due to emissions reductions, they do require significant land area. A 100 MW
CSP plant is estimated to cover approximately 800 acres (comprised mostly of the solar field) while a 500
MW combined cycle plant would occupy about 20 acres.
Solvency – Environment
Solar Energy does not pollute significantly
Roaf & Gupta 07 Susan Roaf & Rajat Gupta, visiting professor Open University & Senior Lecturer at Oxford
Brookes University, 2007, Sustainable Energy: opportunities and limitations, ed. D. Elliott, p. 86 (HARVEN2704)
Solar technologies have low pollution impacts. There will of course be emissions from producing the
energy used to manufacture the solar systems, and this is relatively high for solar PV, but even with PV the
energy debt will be paid back within between one to three and a half years and the pollution resulting
from the sealed units is non-existent, although concerns about some of the substances used in the
production of the panels have tended to drive the markets away from certain panel types including those
made with the carcinogenic cadmium telluride (Fthenakis, 2003).
Replacing fossil fuels in our portfolio of energy sources is a long-term goal of solar power
programs
Palumbo, 04, is a researcher at the Laboratory for Solar Technology of the Paul Scherrer Institute in Villigen,
Switzerland. Palumbo is also a professor at Valparaiso University in Indiana (Robert, packaging sunlight
Methods under study aim to capture solar energy where it is abundant and deliver it where it is needed, 7/7/08,
http://www.memagazine.org/pemar04/pckgsun/pckgsun.html)
Metals are attractive candidates for storage and transport of solar energy. Furthermore, the replacement of fossil fuels by
solar fuels, such as solar hydrogen and solar metals produced from sunlight alone, is a long-term goal.
It requires the development of new technologies, and it will take time before these methods are
technically and economically ready for commercial applications. That makes it strategically desirable
to consider mid-term goals aiming at the development of hybrid solar/fossil-fuel endothermic processes
in which fossil fuels are used exclusively as chemical reactants and solar energy as the source of process
heat.
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Solvency – Environment
Solar power hazards are small and the positives outweigh
Environmental Protection Agency 2001, "Global Warming: Calculators".
http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/tools/calculators.html
Since the environmental impact of solar technologies is relatively small, it is perhaps more beneficial to
take a look at the enormous amount of pollution that is prevented due to the use of solar technologies.
The US EPA has developed a solar environmental benefits calculator which computes, based on the
amount of electricity produced by a PV system and the geographic location of that system, the amount
of nitrogen oxide (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and carbon dioxide (CO2) that is prevented from being
emitted each year. A similar calculator is provided by BP Solar. The amount of emissions that can be
prevented through the use of a small PV system is surprising. For example, if in Iowa, a relatively small 500
watt PV system was installed, emissions of 4 lbs. of NOx, 8 lbs. of SO2, and 6,733 lbs. of CO2 would be
avoided annually. [34] At the same location, if a modest 66 gallon solar hot water system was installed, an
additional 18 lbs. NOx, 37 lbs. SO2, and 8,546 lbs. of CO2 would be avoided annually. [35]
Solvency – Environment
CSP does not produce harmful emissions
AZO Cleantech, January 6, 2008 (What is a Solar Power Tower and How do They Work?
http://www.azocleantech.com/Details.asp?ArticleID=24, Accessed July 8, 2008)
No hazardous gaseous or liquid emissions are released during operation of the solar power tower plant.
If a salt spill occurs, the salt will freeze before significant contamination of the soil occurs. Salt is
picked up with a shovel and can be recycled if necessary. If the power tower is hybridized
with a conventional fossil plant, emissions will be released from the non-solar
portion of the plant.
Solvency – Environment
BLM regs prevent environmental harms
Jim Hughes 07, DIRECTOR AT THE BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT, OVERSIGHT HEARING before
the SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES Thursday, April 19, 2007
http://bulk.resource.org/gpo.gov/hearings/110h/34825.txt
The Energy Policy Act directs the Department of Interior to take actions to promote the development of
domestic renewable energy supplies. The BLM has a clear mandate to provide access to energy
development on public lands in balance with other multiple use purposes. Strict mitigation measures
are employed to minimize environmental impacts on public lands.
Solvency – Generic
With large scale solar energy resources, 69% of our energy could be solar by 2050
Green Diary, 07, (12/29, Solar energy to replace 69% of US power supply by 2050,
http://www.greendiary.com/entry/solar-energy-to-replace-69-of-us-power-supply-by-2050, accessed 7/7/08)
With a steadily increasing number of organizations taking up projects to promote the use of solar
energy, the sun-generated energy could supply 69 percent of US power by 2050. Nope, that’s not
wishful thinking. Experts are positive that this is exactly what we can look forward to. In an article by
Ken Zweibel, James Mason, and Vasilis Fthenakis in Scientific American, dated January 2008, they talk
about a large-scale project to harness the solar energy resources of the USA Southwest between now
and the year 2050. They propagate that solar energy would widely replace coal, oil, natural gas, and
nuclear power to constitute 69 percent of US electricity and 35 percent of its total energy by 2050. And
how is it hoped to be brought about? The perpetrators have well-chalked out plans for that. To begin
with, a vast area of photovoltaic cells will be erected. Excess daytime energy would be stored as
compressed air in underground caverns, to be tapped during night hours by running the compressed
air through turbines. Large solar concentrator power plants would be built as well. This would require
for a large new direct-current power transmission ‘backbone’ to be constructed in order to deliver the
solar electricity across the USA. But, doesn’t this set-up require a neat sum? You bet it does — $420 billion
dollars in subsidies from 2011 to 2020 would be required to fund the infrastructure and make it cost
competitive! After 2020, the solar technologies would compete on their own merits. The present 10-square-
miles would expand to 16,000-square-miles by the project’s end. Wow, it definitely sounds ambitious! We
can only hope that it works out fine. We know we need it, the world needs it, the environment needs it.
Solar energy has the power to reduce greenhouse gases and provide increased energy
efficiency
Science Daily, March 12, 2007, Solar Energy Conversion Offers a Solution to Help Mitigate Global Warming,
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/03/070307075611.htm
Solar energy has the power to reduce greenhouse gases and provide increased energy efficiency, says a
scientist at the U.S. Department of Energy's Argonne National Laboratory, in a report published in the March
issue of Physics Today. Currently, between 80 percent and 85 percent of our energy comes from fossil
fuels. However, fossil fuel resources are of finite extent and are distributed unevenly beneath Earth's
surface. When fossil fuel is turned into useful energy through combustion, it often produces
environmental pollutants that are harmful to human health and greenhouse gases that threaten the
global climate. In contrast, solar resources are widely available and have a benign effect on the
environment and climate, making it an appealing alternative energy source.
Solvency – Generic
The CSP process carries a substantial potential to reduce greenhouse gas and air pollution
emissions by at least 30%
NREL 2006, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, April 21, 2006, Economic, Energy, and Environmental
Benefits of Concentrating Solar Power in California, http://www.scribd.com/doc/1590985/Environmental-
Protection-Agency-comment683addattachcomment682
A key benefit of the use of CSP plants in California is the potential to reduce the amount of criteria and
greenhouse gas emissions. The installation of CSP may reduce air emissions if generating power from
CSP plants offsets generation from fossil fueled plants. For this calculation of emissions reductions, it has
been assumed that the CSP plants will displace generation by combined cycle plants with an average heat
rate of 7,000 Btu/kWh. Typical permitted emissions requirements for a new plant in southern California were
obtained from the California Air Resources Board, and are shown in Table 7-1. Based on these emission
rates, the table also shows the amount of emissions displaced by annual generation from a single 100 MW
trough plant with six hours of storage, as well as for the low deployment and high deployment scenarios of
2,100 MW and 4,000 MW of CSP generation capacities, respectively. The estimates in Table 7-1 are
conservative because of the assumption that CSP would displace emissions from new plants. CSP plants
could offset generation from older thermal natural gas or oil fueled generation with average heat rates equal
to or exceeding 10,000 Btu per kWh, which would increase the emissions offset by about 30 percent.
Furthermore, the older plants are unlikely to have modern air emissions control technology that would be
required on new plants. Thus, the increase in emissions offset by assuming displacement of older
generation would likely exceed 30 percent.
* NREL=National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Solvency – Generic
Solar energy is far cleaner, uses fewer natural resources, and is renewable, and will thus replace
fossil fuels
Alaska Renewable Energy, 05 (7/7/08, http://www.arkansasrenewableenergy.org/solar/solar.html)
Solar energy is an excellent alternative to fossil fuels for many reasons: It is clean energy. Even when
the emissions related to solar cell manufacturing are counted, photovoltaic generation produces less than 15
percent of the carbon dioxide from a conventional coal-fired power plant. Using solar energy to replace the
use of traditional fossil fuel energy sources can prevent the release of pollutants into the atmosphere. Using
solar energy to supply a million homes with energy would reduce CO2 emissions by 4.3 million tons per
year, the equivalent of removing 850,000 cars from the road. Solar energy uses fewer natural resources
than conventional energy sources. Using energy from sunlight can replace the use of stored energy in
natural resources such as petroleum, natural gas, and coal. Energy industry researchers estimate that
the amount of land required for photovoltaic (PV) cells to produce enough electricity to meet all U.S.
power needs is less than 60,000 square kilometers, or roughly 20 percent of the area of Arizona. Solar
energy is a renewable resource. Some scientists and industry experts estimate that renewable energy
sources, such as solar, can supply up to half of the world's energy demand in the next 50 years, even as
energy needs continue to grow.
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CSP is the most cost-efficient renewable—stores energy better, low cost, cheaper
Joseph Romm 2008, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, April 14, “The technology that will save
humanity,” http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/04/14/solar_electric_thermal/index.html)
The key attribute of CSP is that it generates primary energy in the form of heat, which can be stored
20 to 100 times more cheaply than electricity -- and with far greater efficiency. Commercial projects
have already demonstrated that CSP systems can store energy by heating oil or molten salt, which can
retain the heat for hours. Ausra and other companies are working on storing the heat directly with
water in the tubes, which would significantly lower cost and avoid the need for heat exchangers.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 62
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CSP is the most cost-efficient renewable—stores energy better, low cost, cheaper
Joseph Romm 2008, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, April 14, “The technology that will save
humanity,” http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/04/14/solar_electric_thermal/index.html)
The key attribute of CSP is that it generates primary energy in the form of heat, which can be stored
20 to 100 times more cheaply than electricity -- and with far greater efficiency. Commercial projects
have already demonstrated that CSP systems can store energy by heating oil or molten salt, which can
retain the heat for hours. Ausra and other companies are working on storing the heat directly with
water in the tubes, which would significantly lower cost and avoid the need for heat exchangers.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 65
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PVs solve energy inconsistencies – power close to energy demand means less transmission
problems
DOE 08, “Why PV is Important to the Economy,” 7/11/08, http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/to_economy.html
As Americans, we're clear about our preferred energy future — we want plentiful and reliable sources of
clean energy at reasonable prices. More and more, our nation's economic health and security depends on
reliable, clean, abundant, and affordable energy. And by 2020, our already voracious appetite for
energy is projected to increase by about 32%. Although solar electricity (also known as photovoltaics or
PV) is not the sole answer to our myriad energy challenges, this renewable energy option can make an
important contribution to the economy of the United States and the world. Electricity from the sun is a
versatile technology that can be used for applications from the very small to the very large, from grid-
connected systems to grid-independent systems, to hot water, space and industrial process heating, and power
plants. Increasingly, in a competitive market, the U.S. electrical grid will come to rely on distributed
energy resources. The modular nature of the technology enables us to construct distributed electricity-
generating systems in increments as demands grow, to improve supply reliability, and to moderate
distribution and transmission costs. In addition, many regions of the United States are becoming limited
by transmission capacities and local emission controls, but solar electric power systems can be easily
sited at the point of use with no environmental impact. And because sunlight is widely available, we can
build geographically diverse solar electric systems that are less vulnerable to international energy
politics, volatile fossil-fuel-based markets, and transmission failures. Distributed energy technologies
are expected to supply an increasing share of the electricity market to improve power quality and
reliability problems that have caused power outages and cost the United States economy $119 billion a
year We have only to remember August 14, 2003, when more than 50 million people in eight U.S. states and
parts of Canada were left in the dark in the biggest blackout in the history of North America, to realize the
potential power of adding solar electricity to our energy mix (see below and, The Washington Post for
examples).
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PV Good – Generic
Photovoltaic technology has the greatest potential to replace natural gas, fossil fuels and
other sources of energy as the most common and cost effective energy source
Miguel Mendonca 07, Researcher-World Future Council, “Feed-in-Tariffs: accelerating the deployment of
renewable energy”, p. xi, books.google.com
In my of country wind power has been making particularly rapid progress on the back of this legislation, but
I would argue that Phototoltaics (PV) is ultimately the most promising of all energy technologies, giving
us the best option to overcome global energy crises. Currently, It only generates a small proportion of total
renewable energy supply, much less than wind, hydropower or biomass. Photovoltaic energy could soon
become the 'prima donna’ of renewable energy technologies. Solar energy radiation is the only primary
source directly exploitable at every place on Earth. It therefore offers everyone free access to energy
and, moreover, to electricity, that most modern and multifaceted form of energy services. Thus PV has
the potential to facilitate energy freedom for everybody - free from discrimination, artificial national
borders and administrative hurdles, and free from dependency on energy monopolies. It bears by far
the biggest potential - larger than that of all other renewable energy sources, larger than anything to
which fossil fuels and nuclear power could ever aspire.
Solar energy can replace natural gas and other fossil fuels and solve warming for numerous
reasons
Green Power No Date, “Solar Power,” http://www.montanagreenpower.com/solar, Accessed July 8th 2008
Solar energy is an excellent alternative to fossil fuels for many reasons:
It is clean energy. Even when the emissions related to solar cell manufacturing are counted,
photovoltaic generation produces less than 15 percent of the carbon dioxide from a conventional coal-
fired power plant. Using solar energy to replace the use of traditional fossil fuel energy sources can
prevent the release of pollutants into the atmosphere.
Using solar energy to supply a million homes with energy would reduce CO2 emissions by 4.3 million tons
per year, the equivalent of removing 850,000 cars from the road.
Solar energy uses fewer natural resources than conventional energy sources. Using energy from
sunlight can replace the use of stored energy in natural resources such as petroleum, natural gas, and
coal. Energy industry researchers estimate that the amount of land required for photovoltaic (PV) cells to
produce enough electricity to meet all U.S. power needs is less than 60,000 square kilometers, or roughly 20
percent of the area of Arizona.
Solar energy is a renewable resource. Some scientists and industry experts estimate that renewable
energy sources, such as solar, can supply up to half of the world's energy demand in the next 50 years,
even as energy needs continue to grow.
PV Good – Generic
PVs pay for themselves
DOE 08, “Why PV is Important to You,” 7/11/08, http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/to_you.html, accessed 7/8/08
State-of-the-art PV modules are now available in a variety of colors and styles, allowing designers to use
them as aesthetic elements built right into roofs, skylights, awnings, entryways, and facades. Today's
modules can even be specified to transmit a percentage — usually 80% to 90% — of natural light.
Mixed with nontransmissive modules, these systems create a pleasant environment inside the building,
helping to ventilate and heat the building at the same time. When PV systems are properly integrated
into a building "envelope," they don't just provide power and light, they contribute to the structure itself. This
relatively new concept, called "building-integrated PV," is taking hold. Think of it this way — since a
building has to have windows, these windows can also prodce power. It makes financial sense, too,
because the savings on conventional structural materials often offset the cost of the PV materials.
PV Good – Environment
No Air Pollution
DOE 08, “Why PV is Important to the Environment,” 7/11/08,
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/to_environment.html, accessed 7/8/08
Solar electric systems—also known as photovoltaic (PV)systems—have very little impact on the
environment, making them one of the cleanest power-generating technologies available. While they're
operating, PV systems produce no air pollution, hazardous waste, or noise, and they require no
transportable fuels. Because of these benefits, PV can play an important role in mitigating environmental
problems. Ground-level air pollution has severe health and environmental effects and contributes to visibility
problems in scenic areas. Traditional power sources are the largest contributor to this pollution; in
contrast, solar power produces no air pollution.
PV Good – Cost
In spite of high costs, PVs pay for themselves
Adam Aston 08, Energy and Environment Editor, 2/23/2008, “Are Solar Voltaics Just Too Costly,” Business
Week, http://www.businessweek.com/investing/green_business/archives/2008/02/is_solar_photov.html, Accessed
7/8/08/
Such criticism are nothing new. In any rank ordering of the cost effectiveness of renewable technologies now
being built, solar PV tops out as most expensive. Yet its proponents maintain that government subsidies
are justified. The public money will speed the solar PV’s evolution and lower its price. This has happened.
Improving economies of scale in manufacturing, lower installation costs, and chips which do a better
job of converting more of the sun’s photons in electricity have dramatically solar PV costs. The
industry has also grenerated millions of jobs and stabilizes the costs of electricity for those who use it.
And to make the point, at the PiperJaffray solar investment conference in New York in February, influential
companies have announced that it will cut installed solar system costs to meet equal retail prices by
2012.
PV Bad – Environment
Has been no recycling process created
G.J.M Phylipsen 07, Professor in the Department of Science, Technology and Society at Utrecht University,
8/6/07, “Summery ‘Environmental life-cycle assessment of multi-crystalline silicone solar cell modules”, Report #
95057, http://www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/publica/95057.htm, accessed 7/8/08
An important problem in the field of photovoltaic (PV) technology is that there has been no
process specifically designed to remove and recycle the metals in an environmentally benign fashion.
The range of metals which can be present in thin film PV devices may include cadmium, copper, lead,
gallium, indium, selenium and tellurium. The substrates they must be separated from are glass, plastic or
similar low cost substrates.
PV Bad – Environment
PV create hazardous chemicals
G.J.M Phylipsen 07, Professor in the Department of Science, Technology and Society at Utrecht University,
8/6/07, “Summery ‘Environmental life-cycle assessment of multi-crystalline silicone solar cell modules”, Report #
95057, http://www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/publica/95057.htm, accessed 7/8/08
A number of substances are considered to pose acute and/or chronic hazards on the work force in PV
industry, e.g. etchants, acids, solvents etc. Incidental releases could result in the presence of more or less
hazardous substances (e.g. silane, carbon monoxide, ammonia and silica particles) on the work floor.
Safety management will have to be sufficient to take care of these risks Emissions in the PV module's life
cycle are at this moment largely limited to the production phase. Environmentally relevant substances which
may be released in multicrystalline silicon PV module production are fluorine, chlorine, nitrate, isopropanol,
SO2, CO2, respirable silica particles and solvents. Fluorine and chlorine may be emitted to the air as a
component of dust particles by the best case silicon purification technology. The estimated air emission
is maximally 0.16 kg F and 430 kg Cl per TWhe of electricity supplied by PV modules, which is orders of
magnitude smaller than the corresponding emissions of a coal plant. Fluorine and chlorine are also emitted
to the water in all three cases (1,800 kg F and 89,000 kg Cl per TWhe in the base case), resulting from
neutralization of etching and texturing solutions and flue gases. Fluorine and chlorine contribute to the
human toxicity, as does nitrate, which stems from neutralizing acids used in etching and texturing. Water-
borne F- and Cl-emissions of base case PV technology are significant but still 3-5 times smaller than for a
coal plant. The non-energy-related 1 The emissions of SO2, NOx and CO2 can be distinguished into energy-
related, i.e. resulting from energy use, and non-energy-related emissions, i.e. resulting from the production
process itself. emissions of SO2 (in worst and base case) are caused by using sulphur-containing carbon
sources in the reduction of silica. These carbon sources are also responsible for the non-energy-related
emissions of CO2. However, the non-energy-related SO2 and CO2 emissions are small compared to the
energy-related emissions of these gases. Silica particles can be released in the mining and refining
stage. If they are small enough to be inhaled they may cause the lung disease silicosis. Emissions of
solvents and alcohols contribute to photochemical ozone formation and both direct (the solvents itself)
and indirect (ozone) respiratory problems. Comparing the three cases to each other with regard to process
emissions the influence of decreasing wafer thickness, increasing wafer size and use of a different process for
producing high purity silicon is clear (especially for CO2, SO2 and Si powder emissions, SiC, mineral oil).
PV manufacturing process
DOE 08, “PV Panel Disposal and Recycling,” 7/14/08, http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/panel_disposal.html,
accessed 7/8/08
Of course, no form of energy production is completely free of effects on the environment. As with any
consumer product, the raw materials for PV systems must be shipped to factories, and completed products
must be shipped from factories to consumers. In many cases, components may also be shipped from one
factory to another for assembly. Transporting PV materials, components, and final products uses some
energy and produces some air pollution and greenhouse gases, in addition to contributing slightly to
traffic and noise problems. Some energy is also used in manufacturing PV systems.
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The economy is collapsing now – rising energy prices, high oil prices, and lack of investor
confidence are devastating the US stock market – global economic collapse is coming
because of the interconnectedness of markets
Faiola and Irwin 7-16-08
(Anthony and Neil, “An Economy Thrown Into Turmoil: U.S. Financial Crisis Increasingly Infecting The Rest of the
World”, Washington Post Staff Writers Wednesday, July 16, 2008; Page A01 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
dyn/content/article/2008/07/15/AR2008071500999.html?hpid=topnews)
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, testifying before Congress, painted a picture of a U.S.
economy being squeezed from all directions. He cited the "numerous difficulties" that the central bank --
and all Americans -- are grappling with: "ongoing strains in financial markets; declining house prices; a
softening labor market; and rising prices of oil, food and some other commodities."
Less than a month ago, the Fed had indicated that rising inflation was starting to become a bigger concern
than the slumping economy. Since then, the stock market has fallen sharply and broader problems have
emerged in financial markets, and there have been new signs of slowing global growth. That led
Bernanke, in his semi-annual report to Congress on the economy, to emphasize the risks of high inflation and
a weak economy in equal measure.
"The possibility of higher energy prices, tighter credit conditions and a still-deeper contraction in
housing markets all represent significant downside risks to the outlook for growth," Bernanke told the
Senate Banking Committee. "At the same time, upside risks to the inflation outlook have intensified lately as
the rising prices of energy and some other commodities have led to a sharp pickup in inflation and some
measures of inflation expectations have moved higher."
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Silicon shortages make solar unviable now – sensitivity to silicon for PVs makes the
industry volatile
Martin LaMonica 08, Senior Writer at CNET News Covering Green Technologies, March 20, 2008, Solar
Industry Bubble Will Pop, But Continue To Grow, http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-9899707-54.html?hhTest=1
The most vexing problem facing the solar electric industry the past few years has been a shortage of
silicon, the most common material used to make solar cells. But once that silicon shortage eases, prices for
products could start drop significantly--and dig into solar companies' profits. Lux Research on
Thursday published a summary of a report that predicts that the solar bubble will burst next year. An
oversupply of silicon won't be the only reason that prices will fall, according to Lux's report. Several other
solar technologies are emerging that will give incumbent solar photovoltaic providers more competition,
including thin-film solar cells made from materials other than silicon. "The market is now approaching a
tipping point: We project that the supply of solar modules will exceed demand in 2009, leading to
falling prices and a shakeout among companies that aren't prepared to thrive in this new
environment--particularly crystalline silicon players that haven't invested in new thin-film technologies,"
said the report's lead author, Ted Sullivan, in a statement. Traditional panels will also get a run for their
money from concentrating PV systems, solar thermal, and organic solar cells, which are all maturing, said
Lux Research. The findings from the company, which specializes in nanotechnology, are consistent with
what many people in the solar industry have been saying for some time. The constraints on silicon supply
are easing, which should put more price pressure on manufacturers in the coming years.
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Blackouts destroy business profits – consistent blackouts harm the manufacturing sector
Nemeth, 2008, President and CEO of Mirifex(U.S. Department of Energy, “The Economic Impact of ONE
Blackout,” July 11, 2008, http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/to_economy.html, accessed July 11, 2008)
A study measuring the economic impact of the August 2003 blackout found that the event will have far-
reaching, long-term implications for businesses and organizations in the affected region. The study is a
joint undertaking of Mirifex, a business and technology consulting firm headquartered in the region; The
Center for Regional Economic Issues at Case Western Reserve University's Weatherhead School of
Management; and CrainTech, an on-line publication based in Cleveland that serves the technology
community of Northeast Ohio. Preliminary study findings include: Eleven percent of firms surveyed say the
blackout will affect their decision making about growth or relocation. Because of the blackout, more than
one-third (38%) of businesses surveyed said they'd be somewhat or very likely to invest in alternative
energy systems. More than one-third (34%) of firms surveyed have no risk management or disaster recovery
plans in place, and nearly half (46%) of the businesses surveyed will invest more in risk management,
business continuance, and/or disaster recovery in the future. More than one-third (35%) of the businesses
surveyed felt it was somewhat or very likely that the region's image would suffer as a result of the
blackout. More than half the businesses surveyed say the top threat of future interruption is either cyber
crime (26%) or a utility outage (26%), outdistancing other concerns more than 2:1. Two-thirds (66%) of the
businesses surveyed lost at least a full business day because of the blackout. A quarter (24%) of the
businesses surveyed lost more than $50,000 per hour of downtime, translating to at least $400,000 for
an 8-hour day. And 4% of businesses lost more than $1 million for each hour of downtime. Nearly half
(46%) of the businesses surveyed said lost employee productivity was the largest contributor to losses
caused by the blackout. Production/manufacturing and customer sales/service were the areas of
business hardest hit by the blackout.
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Energy demand is growing, companies shifting away from coal and towards alternative energy
Clayton 2008. (Mark, The Christian Science Monitor, staff writer, March 4, “U.S. coal power boom suddenly
wanes,” http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0304/p01s07-usec.htm)
Concerns about global warming and rising building costs are blocking construction of new coal-fired
power plants in the United States and pushing utilities to turn to natural gas and renewable power
instead. Utilities canceled or put on hold at least 45 coal plants in development last year, according to a
new analysis by the US Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory in Pittsburgh.
These moves are a sharp reversal from a year ago, when the industry had more than 150 such plants in
development and signal the waning of a major US expansion into coal. Natural-gas and renewable
power projects have leapt ahead of coal in the development pipeline, according to Global Energy
Decisions, a Boulder, Colo., energy information supplier. Gas and renewables each show more than 70,000
megawatts under development compared with about 66,000 megawatts in the coal-power pipeline. This year
could diminish coal’s future prospects even more. Wall Street investment banks last month said they
will now evaluate the cost of carbon emissions before approving power plants, raising the bar much
higher for new coal projects, analysts say. “What you’re seeing is a de facto moratorium on coal power
right now,” says Robert Linden, a senior oil and gas analyst at Pace Global in New York. “You turn off the
money spigot, you’ve turned off those plants.” With US energy demand growing about 1.2 percent a
year, big utilities must get energy from somewhere. So far, utilities seem to be shifting to natural gas
and renewable energy. In Florida, two coal-fired power plants were recently nixed, but natural-gas turbines
are to take their place. PacifiCorp, a regional electric utility owned by Warren Buffett’s investment company,
turned its back on coal-fired power late last year and now emphasizes gas and wind. “There’s not going to
be a big need for more coal,” he says. “There are plenty of alternatives coming.”
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RPS creates production tax credit which leads to and is key to the expansion of wind energy
Lacey 07, Stephen Lacey is editor and host of the Inside Renewable Energy podcast. He also helps write, manage
and edit stories for publication (Stephen, U.S. Energy Bill -- Early Christmas Present or Lump of Coal, 7/8/08,
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/story?id=50527)
The renewable portfolio standard, which would set a target of getting 20-25% of the nation's electricity
from renewable resources by 2025, will no longer, is in the bill. While that is indeed a blow to the cause
of renewable energy supporters, perhaps the bigger issue is the lack of tax incentives such as the
production tax credit (PTC) and the investment tax credit (ITC). The PTC is vital for the developers
and manufacturers that AWEA represents. Without a long-term extension of the PTC, which expires in
December of 2008, developers will be unsure about the financial viability of their projects. If the
market starts to slow down in the U.S., manufacturers will be unwilling to scale up production or enter
the country all together. Earlier this week, AWEA issued its fourth quarter market report, which
showed that the industry is on track to install 4,000 megawatts (MW) of wind capacity, shattering the
2006 record of 2,454 MW. With long-term support, AWEA believes the industry can continue to
surpass those numbers. But if the PTC is not extended, next year's installed capacity may fall short.
Solar energy produces carbon-free electricity and meets power demands unlike wind energy
Kahn and Fialka, June 2008 (Debra and John, “A solar-motivated land rush hits the southwestern deserts”,
http://www.earthportal.org/news/?p=1314, accessed on 7/7/08)
Meeting peak power demands with renewable energy. “What’s beautiful about these plants is not only do
they produce carbon-free electricity, but they generate firm, dispatchable peak power,” Resch said,
explaining that they are capable of meeting power demands at peak times of use, such as early afternoons
on hot summer days when air conditioners are fully on. Wind-generated electricity, on the other hand,
usually peaks at night, when demands for power are relatively low, and there is often no way to store it
for the next day. What is causing the land rush is that each large CSP plant may require as much as a
2-square-mile area for its solar arrays. “It would occupy the same area as a nuclear power plant, when you
take into consideration its buffer zones,” explained Resch. Desert land in the Southwest, he added, is
prized by project developers because it amounts to some of the “best solar resources in the entire
world.”
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Renewable power prevents blackouts – fixing the grid is a pointless endeavor until
sustainable energy is available
Smith 08, MBA, Bachelors and Masters in power engineering, (Powersmiths International Inc, “Training for
Blackouts,” www.opsxpert.com,accessed July 8, 2008).
While some claim that preventing another widespread blackout simply requires greater investment in
the existing and antiquated energy system developed early in the last century, the real solution to our
energy problems will require the United States to move on to the next stage of energy development - a
cleaner, more efficient and more decentralized system. Shifting to greater reliance on energy efficient
and renewable energy technologies, and facilitating development of distributed generation (DG) capacity
could dramatically increase the reliability of our electrical delivery systems, making Americans less
vulnerable to blackouts like the one that recently struck the Northeast.
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Pollution – FF = SO2
Burning fossil fuels reduces global warming in the long run.
New York Times, 91 (William Stevens,
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D0CE7DA1430F934A35751C0A967958260)
Efforts to head off a predicted global warming by reducing the burning of fossil fuels, as is widely being
urged, could actually worsen the warming in the short run, scientists say. Fossil fuels like coal and oil emit
carbon dioxide when they are burned, and the carbon dioxide traps heat in the Earth's atmosphere
much like a greenhouse does. Climatologists predict that if the emission of carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases like methane and chlorofluorocarbons continues at current rates, the average surface
temperature of the Earth will rise 2 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit in the next century, causing widespread
ecological, agricultural and social damage. But in a less-noticed phenomenon, the burning of fossil fuels
also emits sulfur dioxide particles, which scientists refer to as aerosols. These reflect sunlight, cooling
the Earth and partly offsetting whatever warming may be taking place. A reduction in the burning of
fossil fuels would reduce this cooling effect. The resulting rise in temperature could more than compensate
for the cooling that would be achieved by the accompanying reduction in carbon dioxide in the next 10 to 30
years, according to a study reported in today's issue of the British journal Nature by Dr. T. M. L. Wigley, a
climatologist at the University of East Anglia in England. Warming Could Be More Intense This means that
global warming could be more intense than expected for up to three decades, Dr. Wigley found, after which
the reduction in burning fossil fuels would begin to bring about a global cooling. The reason for the lag is
that the effect of carbon dioxide reductions would be felt only over decades, since that is how long it takes
them to work their way through the ocean-atmosphere climate system. By contrast, the effect of atmospheric
sulfur dioxide particles is felt almost immediately and dies away rapidly once emissions stop. "If you
instantly stopped burning fossil fuels, then the aerosols would fall out in a couple of days," said Dr. James E.
Hansen, a climatologist at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York. "The greenhouse gases stay
there for 100 years, so you'd actually increase the heating" in the short term. "But in the long run, you'd
decrease the temperature and the heating."
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Pollution – Ag Impacts
Sulfur dioxide reduces crop productivity and affects ecosystems
DEWHA 8/21/06, Sulfur Dioxide Fact Sheet, Department of the Environment, Water, Herritage and the Arts of
Australia, http://www.npi.gov.au/database/substance-info/profiles/77.html
What effect might sulfur dioxide have on the environment? Even low concentrations of sulfur dioxide can
harm plants and trees and reduce crop productivity. Higher levels, and especially the acidic deposits
from acid rain, will adversely affect both land and water ecosystems. How might sulfur dioxide enter the
environment? Industrial emissions of sulfur dioxide can produce elevated, but still low level concentrations
in the atmosphere around the source. Volcanic eruptions, while sporadic, are significant contributors to sulfur
dioxide in their local area, and contribute to global background levels of sulfur dioxide. Where in the
environment does sulfur dioxide end up? Sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere is absorbed by soils and
plants. It is also captured within and below clouds and in certain circumstances may raise the acidity of
the resultant rain. This is known as acid rain, which occurs in Europe and North America, but acid rain,
from sulfur dioxide, has not been documented in Australia
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Pollution – Impacts
Power plants key source of air pollution
Dr. Arnold Leitner 02, Senior Consultant at RDI Consulting and PhD in Superconductor Physics, July 2002,
Fuel From the Sky: Solar Power’s Potential for Western Energy Supply, http://www.nrel.gov/csp/pdfs/32160.pdf
Power generation from fossil fuels is one of the biggest sources of air pollution in the western states. In 2001,
western power plants emitted an estimated 1,045,000 tons of NOx and 1,283,000 tons of SO2. These
emissions can be associated with significant health problems, including respiratory and cardiopulmonary
disease, cancer, and birth defects. In addition, they can be harmful to forests, water bodies, and fish, and can
decrease visibility in scenic areas.16
Pollution – Impacts
Best empirical studies show – air pollution leads to disease and death
Merritt, assistant director of development at Cornell College. 2006 (The Cause and Effect of Air Pollution,
Accessed 7/8/08, http://www.yale.edu/ynhti/curriculum/units/1988/6/88.06.06.x.html#)
One study by Ishikawa et al. provided evidence that air pollution may cause or contribute to
emphysema. A comparison was made of autopsy lung material from residents of two cities, Winnipeg
Manitoba and St. Louis, Missouri. The Canadian city has a relatively low level of air pollution,
whereas the American city characteristicly has high levels of industrial contaminants. Emphysema was
found to be seven times more common in St. Louis for ages 20-49 and twice as common for ages over 60.1
Lets look at a comparison. Smoking was significant but not an isolated factor. A 1960-66 post mortem
examination of lungs of 300 residents of St. Louis, Missouri, and an equal number from Winnipeg, Canada.
The subjects were matched by sex, occupation, socio-economic status, length of residence, smoking habits,
and age at death. The high cost of air pollution is strikingly illustrated in its damaging effects on the human
body. Besides the unpleasantness of irritated eyes and scratchy throats, it presents a threat to the respiratory
tract, contributing to a number of serious diseases. In both the United States and Europe, episodes of high
levels of air pollution were implicated in a large number of deaths.
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Facilities that burn coal have particularly high levels of mercury emissions
NHDES 2003, Mercury: Sources, Transport, Deposition, and Impacts, New Hampshire Department of
Environmental Services, http://www.des.state.nh.us/factsheets/ard/ard-28.htm, Accessed 7/8/08
Mercury released into the air in state comes from the incineration of waste (municipal solid waste and
medical waste), the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal and oil, and sewage and sludge incineration. In
waste incineration, many discarded items (e.g., fluorescent lamps, electronic switches, some thermometers,
and older batteries) contain mercury. When these items are burned, mercury is released from the incinerator
stack. The burning of fossil fuels for the production of electricity and steam releases mercury during
the combustion process. Facilities that burn coal have particularly high emissions of mercury. Other
sources such as cars, trucks, and the breakage of fluorescent lamps contribute mercury emissions, but the
extent is not well known.
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Mercury is ingested by humans through the consumption of fish and poses a huge threat to
public health and the environment
NHDES 2003, Mercury: Sources, Transport, Deposition, and Impacts, New Hampshire Department of
Environmental Services, http://www.des.state.nh.us/factsheets/ard/ard-28.htm, Accessed 7/8/08
Mercury is a persistent, bioaccumulative, toxic pollutant. When released into the environment, mercury
accumulates in water laid sediments, is ingested by fish, and is passed up the food chain to humans. Mercury
contamination is a significant public health and environmental problem. Despite efforts by federal and state
governments, as well as the private sector, to reduce releases of mercury to the environment, mercury levels
in fish continue to be at levels of concern.
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Solar technology will replace natural gas and reduces foreign oil dependence.
Freeman 07 ---S. David Freeman, former head of the Tennessee Valley Authority, 2007, Winning our Energy
Independence: an energy insider shows how, p. 51 (HARVEN2725)
Solar-heated water could replace a sizeable-volume of natural gas used for heating water. Why the need
to replace natural gas? The natural gas saved by solar hot water heaters could then be used as a
substitute for petroleum in transportation in the coming decade, especially in trucks, to reduce
pollution as well as our dependence on imported oil. Shifting natural gas from making hot water and
being used as boiler fuel in power plants could be a larger step on our path toward the full transition to
100 percent renewable transportation fuels.
Add-on – Space
Solar promotes space exploration
National Security Space Office; 10/10/07; Space-Based Solar Power As an Opportunity for Strategic
Security; http://www.nss.org/settlement/ssp/library/final-sbsp-interim-assessment-release-01.pdf
The SBSP Study Group found that SBSP directly supports the articulated goals of the U.S.
National Space Policy and Vision for Space Exploration which seeks to promote international
and commercial participation in exploration that furthers U.S. scientific, security, and economic
interests, and extends human presence across the solar system. No other opportunity so clearly
offers a path to realize the Vision as articulated by Dr. Marburger, Science Advisor to the
President: “As I see it, questions about the vision boil down to whether we want to incorporate
the Solar System in our economic sphere, or not. Our national policy, declared by President Bush
and endorsed by Congress last December in the NASA authorization act, affirms that, ‘The
fundamental goal of this vision is to advance U.S. scientific, security, and economic interests
through a robust space exploration program.’ So at least for now the question has been decided in
the affirmative.” No other opportunity is likely to tap a multi‐trillion dollar market that could
provide an engine to emplace infrastructure that could truly extend human presence across the solar
system and enable the use of lunar and other space resources as called for in the Vision.
Ten to the thirty-second power human lives perish each second we delay space colonization.
Bostrum, Professor of Philosophy at Yale, 2003 (Is Cosmology Relevant to Transhumanism?)
Suns are illuminating and heating empty rooms; unused energy is being flushed down black holes; our great common endowment of
negentropy is being irreversibly degraded into entropy on a cosmic scale, as I write these words. These are resources that an advanced
civilization could have used to create value-structures, such as sentient beings living worthwhile lives. The rate of this loss boggles the
mind. One recent paper speculates, using loose theoretical considerations based on the rate of increase of entropy, that the loss of
potential human lives in our own galactic supercluster is at least ~10^46 per century of delayed colonization
(Cirkovic 2002) . This estimate assumes that all the lost entropy could have been used for productive purposes, although no currently
known technological mechanisms are even remotely capable of doing that. Since the estimate is meant to be a lower bound, this
radically unconservative assumption is undesirable. We can, however, get a lower bound more straightforwardly by simply counting the
number or stars in our galactic supercluster and multiplying this number with the amount of computing power that the resources of each
star could be used to generate using technologies for whose feasibility a strong case has already been made. We can then divide this total
with the estimated amount of computing power needed to simulate one human life. As a rough approximation, letÕs say the Virgo
Supercluster contains 10^13 stars. One estimate of the computing power extractable from a star and with an associated planet-sized
computational structure, using advanced molecular nanotechnology (Drexler 1992) , is 10^42 operations per second (Bradbury 2000) . A
typical estimate of the human brainÕs processing power is roughly 10^17 operations per second (Bostrom 1998; Kurzweil 1999) or less
(Moravec 1999). Not much more seems to be needed to simulate the relevant parts of the environment in sufficient detail to enable the
simulated minds to have experiences indistinguishable from typical current human experiences (Bostrom 2001) . Given these estimates,
it follows that the potential for approximately 10^38 human lives is lost every century that colonization of our
local supercluster is delayed; or equivalently, about 10^31 potential human lives per second.
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Add-on – Space
Space colonization is key to economic growth
Wasser; ’08; The Space Settlement Initiative; journalist for ABS and CBS;
http://spacesettlement.org/
Space development has almost stopped, primarily because no one has a sufficient reason to spend the
billions of dollars needed to develop safe, reliable, affordable transport between the Earth and the Moon.
Neither Congress nor the taxpayers wants the government stuck with that expense. Private venture capital
will support such expensive and risky research and development ONLY if success could mean a multi-
billion dollar profit. Today, there is no profit potential in developing space transport, but we have the power
to change that. Lunar and Martian real estate is currently worthless. But that real estate will acquire
enormous value after there is a settlement, regular commercial access, and a system of space property
rights. Lunar or Martian property ownership could then be bought and sold back on earth, raising
billions of dollars. This is a plan to be sure that money is used as an incentive and reward for those who
invest in a way to get there and stay there.
Add-on – Warming
Solar Power Solves for Global Warming
Zweibel et. al 07 (Ken, James, Vasilis, Zweibel is president of PrimeStar Solar, 12/16/07, “A Solar Grand Plan”
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=a-solar-grand-plan)
Solar plants consume little or no fuel, saving billions of dollars year after year. The infrastructure
would displace 300 large coal-fired power plants and 300 more large natural gas plants and all the
fuels they consume. The plan would effectively eliminate all imported oil, fundamentally cutting U.S.
trade deficits and easing political tension in the Middle East and elsewhere. Because solar technologies
are almost pollution-free, the plan would also reduce greenhouse gas emissions from power plants by
1.7 billion tons a year, and another 1.9 billion tons from gasoline vehicles would be displaced by plug-in
hybrids refueled by the solar power grid. In 2050 U.S. carbon dioxide emissions would be 62 percent
below 2005 levels, putting a major brake on global warming.
The federal government becomes more powerful after the terrorist attacks of September 11
Palmer, Vice President for International Programs, 02 (“ Limited Government after 9-11”
http://64.233.167.104/custom?q=cache:zEOnY1IYvWsJ:www.cato.org/pubs/policy_report/v24n2/after911.pdf+%229
11%22+%22federal+government%22+%22power%22&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us&client=googlecoop, April,
accessed on July 9, 2008)
What are the likely long-term effects on American government of the terrorist attacks of September
11? What do changes in polls about “trust in government” mean? And how should advocates of limited
government respond to the changes brought about by the attacks? Not surprisingly, some observers see the
ultimate outcome of the attacks as bigger and more powerful government. For example, Sen. Charles
Schumer (D-N.Y.) declared that “the era of a shrinking federal government is over” and proposed
taking advantage of the attacks to create a “‘new’ New Deal.” Comparing the present with the mid-
1930s, Schumer said, “For the foreseeable future, the federal government will have to grow.”
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Utilities are freaking out over potential greenhouse regulations- competitive CSP power key
to assuage those fears
NREL 07 Report to Congress on Assessent of Potential Impact of Concentrating Solar Power for Electricity
Generation February 2007 National Renewable Energy Laboratory http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy07osti/41233.pdf
Utilities are also concerned that there may eventually be constraints on greenhouse gas emissions.
Because CSP plants do not emit carbon dioxide, they allow utilities to generate electricity without
emitting that greenhouse gas. Utility concerns about future greenhouse gas regulations are being fueled
by actions taken throughout the country. In September 2006, California enacted the California Global
Warming Solutions Act of 2006, which requires California to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 25
percent by 2020.53 As of October 2006, more than 300 mayors representing over 50 million Americans had
agreed to take steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.54 Constraints on greenhouse emissions may
make fossil fuel-generated power more expensive, thereby improving the economics of CSP projects.
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