Vietnam Institute of Architecture, Urban and Rural Planning Ministry of Construction

URBAN PLANNING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISE ADAPTATION
Ph.D., Arch Luu Duc Cuong Vice Director, Center for Research and Planning on Urban on Urban and Rural Environment

Hanoi, 18/10/2011

CURRENT SITUATIONS AND ORIENTATION FOR URBAN DEVELOPOMENT IN VIETNAM

Current situations of urban development

In 1998, Prime Minster approved the Vietnam Urban system development orientation up to 2020 - Central urban areas of different levels are reasonably distributed in 10 typical urbanized areas: Northern and Red River Delta Key Economic Zone (KEZ); Southern and South Eastern KEZ; Central and Middle Central KEZ; Mekong Delta KEZ; South Central; Central Highlands; North Central; Capo Bang Lang Son Ha Bac Bac Thai; Lao Cai, Yen Bai Ha Giang Tuyen Quang Vinh Phu; and North West areas

Tendency of urban development into 10 urbanized areas

(nh h-situations of urban development pht t Current ng Quy hoch tng th ph ph duyt ti Quyt nh s 10/199
- Vietnams urban area network is formed and develops around the central urban areas
- Major central urban areas are organized into clusters of urban Areas
Population of major cities in 2020

Current situations of urban development

Up to now, the national system of urban areas has been growing both in terms of quantity and quality

Up to now (2010), there are in total 755 urban areas in Vietnam :

- 2 special grade - 10 grade-1 - 12 grade-2 - 47 grade-3 - 50 grade-4 - 644 grade-5

Population density in 2007

Urban system in 2007

Urban system development orientation up to 2025, with vision toward 2050 (Decision 445/TTg, 7/4/2009)

- Overcome weakness of the current urbanization process (such as weak human resource for urban development; inconsistent urban infrastructure; rural migration; threatened food security; pollution and ecological imbalance; low planning quality; lack of vision, limited management capacity) - Also facing new challenges and obstacles in the context of global climate change.

DYNAMIC FOR THE FORMATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF URBAN AREAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OCEAN STRATEGIES

MODEL FOR NATIONAL URBAN SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT UP TO 2025

Two major driving North-South urban economic corridors: + Coastal corridor closely linked to ocean strategies + Ho Chi Minh Highway corridor; - One border belt corridor (Vietnam China, Vietnam Laos, Vietnam Cambodia) closely linked to border gate economy and national security and defense - Six axes of driving urban economic corridors, closely linked together in the East-West direction and to national growth poles

ECONOMIC ZONING AND COASTAL ECONOMIC ZONES IN VIETNAM

Prioritize in developing key economic zones, large urban areas and general economic zones as key national economic growth pole - Currently in Vietnam, 15 coastal economic zones in total - Addition of 3 coastal economic zones projected

KHU KINH T NH V - CT HI - HI PHNG KHU KINH T THI BNH - THI BNH KHU KINH T NINH C - NAM NH KHU KINH T NG NAM NGH AN - NGH AN

KHU KINH T HN LA - QUNG BNH KHU KINH T NG NAM - QUNG TR

KHU KINH T NH AN - TR VINH

KHU KINH T NM CN - C MAU

TRAFFIC SYSTEM PLAN

TRAFFIC SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT ORIENTATION

Vertical axis North-South: - Highway 1A from Friendship Border Gate to Nam Can - Ho Chi Minh Highway from Cao Bang to Headland (Ca Mau) - North-South Highway from Lang Son to Ca Mau - Vietnam Coastal road (close along the coastline)

97

Plan for the development of seaport system in Vietnam up to 2020 and orientation towards 2030: - National general seaports: + International Transshipment port: Van Phong Khanh Hoa; + International gateway ports: Hai Phong, Ba Ria Vung Tau; + Regional hub ports: Hon Gai, Nghi Son, Nghe An, Son Duong, Vung Ang, Dung Quat, Quy Nhon, Nha Trang, Ba Ngoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Dong Nai, Can Tho; - Local ports; - Functional ports.
Decision 2190/QD-TTg

Location of deep-water seaports in development and current volume of goods

Coastal urban zoning of Vietnam

Based on the similarity of climatic zone, macro landforms, hydrological and oceanic regime of the region. Coastal urban zones of Vietnam include the following coastal subareas: Northern Coastal Region: (1) Quang Ninh coastal area (2) Red River Coastal area

9 COASTAL AREAS AND MAJOR CITIES

Total population :

43,835 million
Urban population : 13,678 million Urbanization rate:

Central Coastal Region: (3) Thanh Nghe Tinh coastal area (4) Binh Tri Thien coastal area (5) Da Nang Quang Nam Quang Ngai coastal area (6) Binh Dinh Phu Yen Khanh Hoa coastal area
Southern Coastal Region: (7) Coastal area fro Ninh Thuan - HCMC (8) Mekong River Delta Coastal area (9) West Ca Mau - Kien Giang coastal area

31.2% No. or urban areas: 323 28 cities/provinces

QUANG NINH COASTAL AREA

RED RIVER DELTA COASTAL AREA

Urban population: 0,49 m Urbanization rate : 44.6% No. of urban areas: 15

Urban population: 1.35 m Urbanization rate: 20.4% No. of urban areas: 46

THANH NGHE TINH COASTAL AREA

BINH TRI THIEN COASTAL AREA

Urban population: 0.64 m Urbanization rate: 24.3% No. of urban areas: 31

Urban population: 0.847 m Urbanization rate: 10.5% No. of urban areas: 69

DA NANG QUANG NAM QUANG NGAI COASTAL AREA

Urban population: 1.14 m
Urbanization rate: 31.8% No. of urban areas: 26

BINH DINH PHU YEN KHANH HOA COASTAL AREA

Urban population: 1.06 m
Urbanization rate: 29.4% No. of urban areas: 32

COASTAL AREA FROM NINH THUAN TO HCMC

MEKONG RIVER DELTA TRIANGLE COASTAL AREA

Urban population: 6.47 m Urbanization rate: 71.6% No. of urban areas: 35 Urban populations: 0.988 m Urbanization rate: 15.9%

No. of urban areas: 46

CA MAU KIEN GIANG COASTAL AREA

Urban population: 0.693 m Urbanization rate: 23.5% No. of urban areas: 23

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPOMENT, NEW CHALLENGES IN URBAN DEVELOPMENT

Vietnam is among 4 most severely affected country by extreme weather phenomena during the last 2 decades, ranking 3rd in 2008. (Report on global climate risk index 2009, Germanwatch, COP 15, Copenhagen, Denmark)
The trend of the rainfall within 1970-2007 The trend of the average temperature within 1970-2007 The trend of the maximum temperature within 1970-2007

22
Zone 2

Zone 1

22
Zone 2 Zone 3

Zone 1

22
Zone 2 Zone 3

Zone 1

Zone 3

20
Zone 4

mm/38 years 650 550 450 350 250

Zone 5

20
Zone 4

C/38 years 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0

20
Zone 4

C/38 years 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8

18

18

18

16

150 50

16
Zone 5

16
Zone 5

0.6 0.4
14
Zone 6

14

Zone 6

-50 -150 -250 -350

14

Zone 6

0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4

12
Zone 7

12
Zone 7

12
Zone 7

Zone 8

Zone 8

Zone 8

10
Note: The values on the contours, which are the average values for an area with size 1 x 1 degree

10
Note: The values on the contours, which are the average values for an area with size 1 x 1 degree

10
Note: The values on the contours, which are the average values for an area with size 1 x 1 degree

104

106

108

104

106

108

104

106

108

Demonstrations of Climate change in Vietnam

Thuc et al. IHM, 2009

3m

2m

The sea level rise scenarios published by MONRE shows that: In the middle of the 21st century, sea level might increase by 28 - 30 33cm. By the end of the century, it will have increased by 65 - 75 100cm compared to levels of period from 1980 - 1999.

1m

4m

5m

Sea level rise extent of impact

SLR Scenario (m) Inundated Area (km2) (%) 0.25 0.5 1 6,237 14,034 30,116 1.9 4.2 9.1 Population Affected (Mill) 2.0 4.7 13

(%) 2.4 5.7 16

1.5
2 Sea level rises by 5m Flooded area: 57,447.7 km2 (17.3%) Population affected: 37,130,743 (44.7%) 3 4 5

40,242
45,479 50,908 53,909 57,447

12
14 15 16 17

20
25 30 34 37

24
30 36 41 45

Source: Tran Thuc and partners

With over 3,400km of coastline, over 50% of population living along the coastline area will be directly affected by climate change in general and sea level rise in particular.

Vietnam urban system Urban areas and topography

POPULATION DISTRIBTION IN COASTAL AREAS

More than 300 coastal urban areas/755 areas affected by climate change. More than 100 directly affected by climate change and sea level rise. Moreover, economic centers (future urban areas) will also be affected.

Vulnerable coastal areas

Mekong River Delta is one of the most severely affected region by climate
change and sea level rise globally.

Rising water caused landslides at Seagate in Nha Mat ward, Bac Lieu city

Flooding is the first consequence to come, leading to other corollaries that affect sustainable urban development
- Changes in rainfall patterns and extreme weather phenomena will lead to rises in frequency and severity of floods in areas with increased rainfall. - Urban development turns more water absorbing surfaces into concrete; decreased water surface area due to filling, encroaching or waste dumping also increases urban flood risk

Flooding Conditions of Hanoi Nov 7, 2008

FLOOD IN HANOI

FLOOD IN HCMC

Affect structure of urban ecology:

- Changes in topographic and geomorphologic features - Decline in natural resources such as land areas, fresh water resources - Changes in urban coastal ecosystem
Changes in natural resources and coastal ecosystem Erosion, landslides decrease area of land

Flood in Mekong river delta

West Sea Dyke (Khanh Tien commune, U Minh district, Ca Mau Province) was seriously eroded due to the impacts of climate change.

Sea level rise will inundate many low-lying areas.

Affecting urban spatial structure (industrial zones, system of centers)

Affecting the network of urban technical and social infrastructure:

- Causing inundation and floods, slowing drainage in urban areas, overloading the sewage drainage and treatment system - Changing area of water surface, green parks, squares. - Ruining infrastructure (houses, traffic systems, factories, ports) - Affecting underground urban space

Flood in Quang Nam

Flood in Can Tho

Flood in Da Nang city

Flood in Mekong river delta

Climate change New challenges in urban development

- Climate change and sea level rise, as well as natural disasters, floods are becoming more and more complicated and unpredictable - Increasing risks caused by climate change significantly affect Vietnams urban development strategies - In the context of growing global economy, most urban areas, especially coastal and mountainous areas, have high vulnerability and low adaptation capability

- Most of them are not integrated and there have not been measures to integrated climate change issues into urban development plans and programs
- Many urban areas were built and developed in the period before climate change and will face difficulties in upgrading, improvement and planning to respond to climate change.

Climate change New challenges in urban development

- Many urban areas, especially coastal ones, are affected by adverse natural conditions (salinization in dry season, inundation in rainy season due to floods and high tides), which become more and more severe due to climate change, sea level rise and human impacts (upstream hydro-power project, roads that block flow of water and reduce natural water bodies) - In the context of climate change and sea level rise, rapid urbanization, especially that in coastal urban areas of Vietnam, will once again increase risks to development, contradicting to the principal of reducing the impacts cause by climate change and sea level rise impacts. - Rapid development in coastal areas lead to specific contradictions (between urban function and natural function of the alluvial grounds, flood drainage, usage of water and ecological functions)

URBAN PLANNING TO RESPOND TO CLIMATE CHANGE, PROBLEMS EMERGING

Core tasks of Construction sector in response to Climate change period 2011 - 2015
- Assess the impacts of climate change and sea level rise on urban technical infrastructure, energy consumption - Identify measures to respond to climate change and sea level rise;

- Integrate climate change issues into strategies, programs, plans, projects;

- Adjust plans for technical infrastructure, urban residential areas based on climate change scenarios; - Propose supplements to construction standards, procedures, technical guidance in response to climate change

Note: Decision 158/2008/QD - TTg

Construction plans are particularly important in climate change responses

- The issue of integrating climate responses into strategies, projects and plans has newly been brought into discussion in Vietnam. - Construction planning, being a tool for organizing urban space, is a critical starting point for the integration of climate change responses, with a view to sustainable urban development - Climate change adaptation, especially that in coastal areas, is a new issue that will require the application of basic principles in spatial planning.

- At the same time, spatial planning principles will also need to adapt and adjust to follow standard construction processes and apply sustainable adaptation policies in order to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on urban development.

Facts about integrating climate change responses into construction planning

- Adapting to and reducing risks of disasters, floods is not a new issue in urban planning, but new in the context of climate change - Strategic environmental assessment, being a tool for integrating environment protection into construction planning, has been done for over 10 years. - However, the approach applied in this assessment is not robust enough to respond to climate change, it only assesses the impacts of urban development on climate, environment, but not of climate change on urban development.

- Objectives regarding risk responses (prevention and control of floods, inundation, high tides, saline intrusion) have also been set in construction planning, however the methodology is not appropriate and comprehensive in the context of globalization and climate change. - Many drainage projects are being implemented throughout the country. This is necessary, but not very effective as they are still passive to risks and lack a master plan with vision and climate change adaptation considerations.

Issues with construction planning in climate change responses

- Solutions for plan design, implementation and management were developed separately, not considering integration. - The current uni-sectoral approach to planning will not satisfy new requirements in the context of greater exposure to severe disasters and floods due to climate change - Multi-sectoral integration tools to build and operate a unified spatial framework are restrictive and underdeveloped

- Urban plan projects in Vietnam often have a 20-25 year timeframe, while many climate change impacts will not be evident until after 50-100 years
- Current approach of urban planning only revolves around development, not the conservation of natural laws associated with development

Examples regarding water in urban areas

- Natural channels and low-lying areas are being encroached and filled without control for the purpose of urbanization, blocking the currents of surface water and causing lakes and ponds to fail in their function as water storage bodies. - Natural water absorption capacity of soil decreases, while area of concrete surface keeps increasing. This speeds up currents of surface water and lowers the level of groundwater, thus overloading rainwater drainage systems in urban areas. - Most measures in response to floods caused by rains and tides are passive and reactive because lakes, rivers or channels that were supposed to be preserved have already been turned into urban areas and houses.

Climate change adaptation planning - The need for a new approach in construction planning
- All problems with construction planning above call for a more complex and comprehensive approach - There should be an overall long-term strategic plan for the next 50-100 years, with strong association with climate change. This is still an issue of little attention and needs more consideration in the Orientation Master Plan for Vietnam Urban System Development up to 2025, with vision toward 2050 approved by the Prime Minister.

Some requirements for Climate change adaptation planning

- Integrate separate designing, technical and management approaches in a unified planning framework (e.g.: drainage plans in association with treeplanting plans, river basin plans)
- Deal with the impacts of climate change on urban development in a multisectoral, multi-dimensional, multi-stage and interactive manner - Adaptation plans should facilitate an overall SWOT analysis for an area in exposure to climate change risks - Adaptation plans should fill the gaps between different sectors, disciplines, between knowledge and policies by establishing strategic programs and projects that can serve as integrating tools - Allow for and establish communication channels between sectors, disciplines, decision making levels, responsible people and relevant stakeholders; creating a framework for coordination between agencies to identify the nature and extent of climate change impacts.

Requirements for Climate change adaptation planning

- Adaptation planning objectives have to draw specific measures to respond to and reduce the impacts of climate change, with focus on floods and in 2 approaches: construction and non-construction - Simultaneous application of 2 approaches in planning theory: disciplinary approach (urban, water supply, drainage) and group approach (poor people, gender, residential area, sensitive group) - Creating new urbanization forms and urban design patterns towards adaptation, environmental friendliness, resource protection, and quality living space

Summary of policies in sea level rise adaptation

Focus strategies for sea level rise adaptation Related issues

- Objectives of adaptation

- Prevent damages - Minimize damages - Share damages - Alter affected activities - Change locations of affected activities - Collect information and build awareness - Plan and design - Apply - Examine - Evaluate - Protect residence areas - Evacuate (or) - Reinforce the location - Reclaim land from sea - Reorganize - No intervention
- Asses risks - Analyze costs and benefits - Options for sea level rise scenarios - Assess and identify policies related to sea level rise based on adaptation objectives, natural vulnerabilities of coastal areas as well as human development activities

- Minimize damages

- Share damages

- Alter affected activities

THANK YOU VERY MUCH!