Proble Solving

T A T A MOTORS LIMITED
Root cause Analysis And Problem Solving Manual

Wave 1 For Variable ( Continuous Data )
Property of Tata Motors Ltd. All right reserved . No part of this manual may be reproduced ,stored in a retrieval system,or transmitted ,in any form or means without the prior written permission from Six Sigma Cell , Tata Motors ,Jamshedpur 1
For Internal Circulation Only Six Sigma Central Coordination Group
Contents 1. 2. Concept & guidelines Distribution of data What is distribution What is sample Type of variable Type of distribution Property of normal distribution 3. 4. 5. 6. Stability of process Causes of variation Tool of detecting assignable cause Statistical process control Purpose of control Chart Control chart for variable Control chart interpretation Other control condition
Index
Page No
2
Page No
7.
8. 9.
10.
For Internal Circulation Only
Hypothesis Testing Steps in hypothesis testing Power of hypothesis testing Testing main Effect due to testing Levels 2t Test Paired T Test One Way ANOVA Nested Anova With Fixed Factor Comparison of variance ANOVA With random factor F Test Levenes test Variation analysis by Shanin range Method Regression analysis Simple Regression Multiple Regression Regression By Subset Method Design Of Experiment Factorial Design Analyze factorial design Analyze factorial Plot Screening Factorial Design Prediction model for standard deviation Variable search
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Six Sigma Central Coordination Group
Any problem solving in a manufacturing process involves the identification of Assignable causes.Though the initial identification of factors is done through Tools like cause and effect and FMEA this volume stresses on the validation tools. This volume aims at familiarizing users with some of the more Powerful six sigma tools and shanin tools used for root cause Identification .The six sigma tools operate through Detection of mean effects (through tools like 2t,one way ANOVA),variance analysis of a group of factors with multiple levels and interactions( through tools like nested ANOVA and ANOVA General linear model) and through establishing relationship between input and output variable when both are of continuous nature(throgh regression analysis).The Shanin tools for assignable causes are useful for detecting assignable input parameters on material and process parameter through use of tools like paired comparison and process parameter search both of which have been dealt in this volume. Often once the assignable causes are improved, one comes up with the uphill task of improving the common causes affecting part to part variation when one has to interfere with the process to derive the optimum combination of process parameters and input material parameters for improving mean effect and variation.The six sigma tool of DOE and the shanin tool of variable search help in the above analysis.
4
CONCEPTS AND GUIDELINES
5
What is a distribution?
6
A distribution is a population of individual observations each with the probability of occurrence defined by a probability density function.
7
WHAT IS A SAMPLE?
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A sample is a part of a population drawn in a random manner so as to enable one to make inference about population.
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TYPES OF VARIABLE
10
Variables are classified as continuous and discrete. A continuous Variable is one for which all values in some range are possible i.e. values are observed in a continuous scale. A discrete variable is one where values are with gaps and not on Continuous scale.
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TYPES OF DISTRIBUTION
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Distributions for continuous variable. i)Normal ii)exponential iii)Weibull Distribution for discrete variable i)Poison ii)Binomial.
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Normal Distribution
A dimension on a part is critical. This critical dimension is measured daily on a random sample of parts from a large production process. The measurements on any given day are noted to follow a normal distribution. A customer orders a product. The time it takes to fill the order was noted to follow a normal distribution.
Z = ( X - P) / V P= 0 f( x) V= 1
Area
D = 0.05
-2
1.645
2
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Areas under normal curve - Normal distribution table Area
z
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.19
Area
0.500000 0.496011 0.492022 0.488033 0.484047 0.480061 0.476078 0.472097 0.468119 0.464144 0.460172 0.456205 0.452242 0.448283 0.444330 0.440382 0.436441 0.432505 0.428576 0.424655
z
0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39
Area
0.420740 0.416834 0.412936 0.409046 0.405165 0.401294 0.397432 0.393580 0.389739 0.385908 0.382089 0.378281 0.374484 0.370700 0.366928 0.363169 0.359424 0.355691 0.351973 0.348268
z
0.40 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.59
Area
0.344578 0.340903 0.337243 0.333598 0.329969 0.326355 0.322758 0.319178 0.315614 0.312067 0.308538 0.305026 0.301532 0.298056 0.294599 0.291160 0.287740 0.284339 0.280957 0.277595
z
0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.79
Area
0.274253 0.270931 0.267629 0.264347 0.261086 0.257846 0.254627 0.251429 0.248252 0.245097 0.241964 0.238852 0.235762 0.232695 0.229650 0.226627 0.223627 0.220650 0.217695 0.214764
15
Area
z
1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.19
Area
0.158655 0.156248 0.153864 0.151451 0.149170 0.146859 0.144572 0.142310 0.140071 0.137875 0.135666 0.133500 0.131357 0.129238 0.127143 0.125072 0.123024 0.121001 0.119000 0.117023
z
1.20 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.28 1.29 1.30 1.31 1.32 1.33 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.37 1.38 1.39
Area
0.115070 0.113140 0.111233 0.109349 0.107488 0.105650 0.103835 0.102042 0.100273 0.098525 0.096801 0.095098 0.093418 0.091759 0.090123 0.088508 0.086915 0.085343 0.083793 0.082264
Area
0.80 0.211855 0.81 0.208970 0.82 0.206108 0.83 0.203269 0.84 0.200454 0.85 0.197662 0.86 0.194894 0.87 0.192150 0.88 0.189430 0.89 0.186733 0.90 0.184060 0.91 0.181411 0.92 0.178786 0.93 0.176185 0.94 0.173609 0.95 0.171056 0.96 0.168528 0.97 0.166023 0.98 0.163543 0.99 0.161087 For Internal Circulation Only
1.40 0.080757 1.41 0.079270 1.42 0.077804 1.43 0.076459 1.44 0.074934 1.45 0.073529 1.46 0.072145 1.47 0.070781 1.48 0.069437 1.49 0.068112 1.50 0.0668072 1.51 0.0655217 1.52 0.0642555 1.53 0.0630084 1.54 0.0617802 1.55 0.0605708 1.56 0.0593799 1.57 0.0582076 16 1.58 0.0570534 Six Sigma Central Coordination Group 1.59 0.0559174
z
1.60 1.61 1.62 1.63 1.64 1.65 1.66 1.67 1.68 1.69 1.70 1.71 1.72 1.73 1.74 1.75 1.76 1.77 1.78 1.79
Area
0.0547993 0.0536989 0.0526161 0.0515507 0.0505026 0.0494714 0.0484572 0.0474597 0.0464786 0.0455139 0.0445654 0.0436329 0.0427162 0.0418151 0.0409295 0.0400591 0.0392039 0.0383635 0.0375379 0.0367269
z
1.80 1.81 1.82 1.83 1.84 1.85 1.86 1.87 1.88 1.89 1.90 1.91 1.92 1.93 1.94 1.95 1.96 1.97 1.98 1.99
Area
0.0359303 0.0351478 0.0343794 0.0336249 0.0328841 0.0321567 0.0314427 0.0307419 0.0300540 0.0293789 0.0287165 0.0280665 0.0274289 0.0268034 0.0261898 0.0255880 0.0249978 0.0244191 0.0238517 0.0232954
z
2.00 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.06 2.07 2.08 2.09 2.10 2.11 2.12 2.13 2.14 2.15 2.16 2.17 2.18 2.19
Area
0.0227501 0.0222155 0.0216916 0.0211782 0.0206751 0.0201821 0.0196992 0.0192261 0.0187627 0.0183088 0.0178643 0.0174291 0.0170029 0.0165858 0.0161773 0.0157775 0.0153863 0.0150034 0.0146286 0.0142621
z
2.20 2.21 2.22 2.23 2.24 2.25 2.26 2.27 2.28 2.29 2.30 2.31 2.32 2.33 2.34 2.35 2.36 2.37 2.38 2.39
Area
0.0139034 0.0135525 0.0132093 0.0128736 0.0125454 0.0122244 0.0119106 0.0116038 0.0113038 0.0110106 0.0107241 0.0104440 0.0101704 0.0099031 0.0096418 0.0093867 0.0091375 0.0088940 0.0086563 17 0.0084242
z
2.40 2.41 2.42 2.43 2.44 2.45 2.46 2.47 2.48 2.49 2.50 2.51 2.52 2.53 2.54 2.55 2.56 2.57 2.58 2.59
Area
0.00819755 0.00797623 0.00776023 0.00754941 0.00734365 0.00714284 0.00694686 0.00675565 0.00656915 0.00638717 0.00620967 0.00603658 0.00586778 0.00570315 0.00554264 0.00538617 0.00523365 0.00508493 0.00494003 0.00479883
z
2.60 2.61 2.62 2.63 2.64 2.65 2.66 2.67 2.68 2.69 2.70 2.71 2.72 2.73 2.74 2.75 2.76 2.77 2.78 2.79
Area
0.00466120 0.00452715 0.00439650 0.00426930 0.00414532 0.00402462 0.00390708 0.00379258 0.00368118 0.00357264 0.00346702 0.00336421 0.00326413 0.00316679 0.00307202 0.00297282 0.00289011 0.00280285 0.00271803 0.00263548
z
2.80 2.81 2.82 2.83 2.84 2.85 2.86 2.87 2.88 2.89 2.90 2.91 2.92 2.93 2.94 2.95 2.96 2.97 2.98 2.99
Area
0.00255519 0.00247711 0.00240123 0.00232744 0.00225574 0.00218600 0.00211829 0.00205243 0.00198847 0.00192630 0.00186586 0.00180721 0.00175023 0.00169486 0.00164115 0.00158894 0.00153828 0.00148904 0.00144130 0.00139493
Area
3.00 0.00134999 3.10 0.00096660 3.20 0.00068714 3.30 0.00048342 3.40 0.00033693 3.50 0.00023263 3.60 0.00015911 3.70 0.00010780 3.80 0.00007235 3.90 0.00004810 4.00 0.00003167 4.10 0.00002066 4.20 0.00001355 4.30 0.00000854 4.40 0.00000541 4.50 0.00000340 4.60 0.00000211 4.70 0.00000130 4.80 0.00000079 4.90 0.00000048 18 0.00000029 5.00 Six Sigma Central Coordination Group
5.10 5.20 5.30 5.40 5.50 5.60 5.70 5.80 5.90 6.00
0.00000180 0.00000107 0.00000063 0.00000037 0.00000021 0.00000012 0.000000070 0.000000040 0.000000022 0.000000012
Area
Note: Only absolute values of z should be taken while referring to this table.
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Example : Normal Distribution
The diameter of bushings is = 50 mm with a standard deviation of = 10 mm. Estimate the proportion of the population of bushings that have a diameter equal to or greater than 57 mm.
Ans. 0.2420
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Binomial Distribution
Binomial distribution. A random variable X is defined to have a binomial distribution if the discrete density function of X is given by fX(x) = fX(x;n,p) nC px(1-p)1-x for x= 0,1,2,,n x = 0 otherwise where the two parameters n and p satisfy 0 p 1, n ranges over the positive integers and q=1-p. A distribution defined by the above density function is called a Binomial distribution. E(X)=np, Var(X)=npq
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Useful w hen there are only tw o results in a random experiment e.g., pass/ fail, compliance/ noncompliance, yes/ no A dimension on a part is critical. This critical dimension is measured daily on a random sample of parts from a large production process. To expedite the inspection process, a tool is designed to either fail or pass a part that is tested. The output now is no longer continuous. The output is now binary; hence the binomial distribution applies in this case.
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Product either passes or fails test; determine the number of
defective units Light bulbs w ork or do not w ork; determine the number of defective light bulbs People respond yes or no to a survey question; determine the proportion of people w ho answ er yes to the question Purchase order forms are either filled out incorrectly or correctly; determine the number of transactional errors.
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Remember : binomial has tw o parameters n and p

binomial distribution n = 8 p =0.1 0.6
p(x)

p(x)
0.4 0.2 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 x 6
0.2 0.1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 x 6

p(x)
0.2 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 x 6
p(x)
0.4 0.2 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 x 6
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Example : Binomial Distribution
A part is said to be defective if a hole that is drilled into it is less or greater than specifications. A supplier claims a failure rate of 1 in 100. If this failure rate were true, find the probability of observing one defective part in 10 samples. Ans. 0.091
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Poisson Distribution
Poisson Distribution A random variable X is defined to have a Poisson distribution if the density of X is given by fX(x) = fX(x; ) = e- x/x! for x=0,1,.
0 otherwise where the parameter satisfies >0. E(X)= and Var(X)= The Poisson distribution provides a realistic model for many random phenomena. Since the values of a Poisson random variable are the non-negative integers, any random phenomenon for which a count of some sort is of interest is a candidate for modeling by assuming a Poisson distribution. Such a count might be the number of fatal traffic accidents per week in a given state, the radioactive particle emissions per unit of time, the number of telephone calls per hour coming into the switchboard of a large business, the number of organisms per unit volume of some fluid, the number of defects per unit of some material, the number of flaws per unit of some material etc.
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Poisson Distribution
There are a large number of dimensions on a part that are critical. Dimensions are measured on a random sample of parts from a large production process. The number of out- of-specification conditions are noted on each sample. This collective number-of-failure information from the samples can be modeled using a Poisson distribution. Estimating the number of cosmetic non-conformance w hen painting an automobile Projecting the number of industrial accidents for next year Estimating the number of un-popped kernels in a 27 batch of popcorn
Though there are many distributions for Continuous variable, normal distribution is the most common distribution in any manufacturing process.Therefore in our coverage of tools emphasis is given on tools applicable for normal distribution.In case of non-normality the data should be transformed and tools applied.
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PROPERTIES OF NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
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A process which produces a response which is Normally Distributed is characterized by its mean and standard deviation. As per Normal Distribution theory : A observation for response sample static will fall within the limits of +/- 3 from the process center 99.73% of the time if the process is under statistical control. Therefore if a point falls outside this limit, process is out of control and there is an assignable cause of variation.
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99.73 % area covered

([

K value of 3 implies that there is a probability of only 0.0027 of a sample statistic falling outside the control limits in spite of the process being in control. We can choose value of k based on the desired probability of sample statistic falling outside when process is in control Such a limit is known as probability limit Ex.: if k=3.09, probability reduces to 0.002.
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In general all processes are not normal. But for large or small sample sizes with a population distribution that is unimodal and close to symmetric, the Central Limit theorem states that : If the plotted statistic is a sample average, it will tend to have a normal distribution Thus even if the parent population is not normally distributed , control charts for averages and related statistics are based on normal distribution. However for highly skewed distribution it is safe to have sample size of 30. The standard deviation for the averages of mean for random samples of size n taken from a normal population are /Sqrt(n) (where n is the sample size and is the standard 32 deviation of parent population).
Central Limit Theorem
Variances of random samples of size n taken from a normally distributed Universe have a skewed distribution withy heaping of variances to the Left of their mean and an attenuation to the right. However the average of such sample variances approaches the population Variance for large number of such samples. The sample mean and variance of sample therefore is used to estimate the variance and mean of population. .
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STABILITY OF A PROCESS
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Process Stability Stability : Measure of consistency of a process in terms of its mean & variation. It involves a time factor.
Process Mean(stable)
Mean & Variation Stable over time
Stable Process
Process Spread= 6 (stable) For Internal Circulation Only
T im e
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Unstable Process(Mean inconsistent with time)
Mean unstable Variation Stable over time
T im e
Process Mean unstable
Process Spread(stable)
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Unstable Process(Spread inconsistent with time)
Mean Stable over time Variation Unstable

Ti m e
Process Mean(stable)
Process Spread (unstable)

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CAUSES OF INCONSISTENCY IN MEAN AND VARIATION
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Variation & the need for Control VARIATION
Assignable / Special Causes

(Specific external change / event)
Inherent / Common Causes

(Inherent in the process)
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Assignable Causes of variation Occurrence of a qualitative external event Two types stream to stream,time to time
Variation controllable / immediate action possible In a X bar and R chart it is reflected as out of control points in the X bar chart if the event falls between subgroups and will be reflected as out of control points in R chart if it falls within subgroup. Example : Tool change Setup change / depth adjustment Shift change
Tool wear
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STREAM TO STREAM VARIATION (SSV). 2 TYPES 1. Process Stream 2. Product Stream PROCESS STREAM Example : A multi spindle m/c producing the same product parameter 3 different spindles 3 different tool sets 3 different fixtures PRODUCT STREAM Example : Variation in dia of holes drilled on a circular plate : Taper on a shaft variation in dia across cross-section Sigma Central Coordination Group Six For Internal Circulation Only
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Contributes to SSV.
Time to Time variation Variation in parts produced over a period of time.
Hour to hour variation Shift to shift variation Event to event variation. Controllable
Assignable / special causes Causes : Tool wear Qualitative events tool change, setup change etc.
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Inherent process variation Process characteristic
Common Causes of variation(Reflected in the R chart of X bar and R chart if found stable over time)
Uncontrollable ( immediate action/ correction not possible)
Occurring due to variation in 6 Ms: 1. Man 2. Machine 3. Material 4. Measurement 5. Method 6. Mother Nature
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Common Causes
Assignable Causes
PROCESS RESPONSE
TIME
For the above chart, the haggard pattern shows the inherent variation due to common causes The trend of this inherent variation over time shows the assignable causes of variation
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TOOLS FOR DETECTING ASSIGNABLE CAUSES.

SPC Test of hypothesis for detecting mean and variance shifts Variance analysis Paired comparision and process parameter Search of SHANIN Regression analysis to establish relationship between input and Output both being continuous
45
SPC(STATISTICAL PROCESS CONTROL) Detects shifts in mean and spread through use Of eight rules.
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The purpose of a Control Chart

The function of a control chart is to minimize the net economic loss from over-adjustment and under-adjustment.
Dr. Deming
Rs.
47
Control Charts...
Provide a common language for communications about the performance of a process. Give a good indication of whether any problems are likely to be correctable locally or will require action on the system.
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Control Charts will not :

7 Make processes capable 7 Solve process problems
. . . but they can give clues to possible causes

49
Control Charts for Variables
Preparation and Use of X and R Charts 1. Make sure the gauge is capable and accurate. Verify that it is calibrated. 2. Decide on the proper sample size. 3. Determine the sampling strategy. 4. Measure and record each piece of the subgroup on the control chart. 5. Calculate the X and range for each subgroup. 6. After 20 subgroups are collected, the central lines (X and R) can be calculated and control limits are established. 7. After control limits are established, analyze range and X chart, locating special causes. 8. If no special causes exist, continue to run and chart the process.
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Choice of measuring instrument :
An MSA should be conducted to check the accuracy and precision of the instrument Instrument should be calibrated. Sample Size :
The least count of the instrument should be 1/10th of the tolerance of the parameter.
It is normally between 4 to 10
Larger the sample size, better the chances of detecting small shifts
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A size of 5 is followed as a standard
Selection of Samples Thumb rule : Maximize differences between subgroups Minimize differences within subgroups Selecting samples within a subgroup : should include only common causes. Selection to be one in order of production To be done within short span of time
No qualitative events should occur within a subgroup

52
Spacing subgroups : Sampling frequency Subgroups should be spaced evenly across a shift /day. Should be at sufficiently large time intervals to include variation in process over time.
If a known event occurs, the subgroup readings should be taken before or after the event.
If an event occurs after every job, then consider the variation due to it as a common cause. The sampling frequency depends on cost of obtaining information compared to cost of not detecting a nonconforming item.
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Constructing an X R chart : The Trial Run Step 1. Record selected parameter as per sampling scheme
Step 2. For each sub group, calculate Subgroup mean = X Subgroup range = R Step 3 Calculate average Subgroup mean Subgroup range
Center line of Xbar chart Center line of R chart

54
Step 4. Calculate Control Limits For X bar Chart : UCLx = X + A2R LCLx = X A2R For R chart : UCLr = D4R LCLr = D3R Where A2, D4 and D3 are statistical constants depending on sample size n
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Step 5.
Plot the control limits for Range chart Plot the values of subgroup Range Check for points out of control limits If so investigate causes associated with out of control points and take remedial action R chart should be analyzed before Xbar chart It shows stability of process variation. This variation is included in the control limits of Xbar chart. Therefore if r chart shows out of control, limits of Xbar chart may not be meaningful.
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Step 6 Delete the out of control points(on both R and Xbar chart) for which remedial actions have been taken to remove special causes of variation Recalculate center line and control limits for the revised set of data This should be an ongoing process leading to continuous improvement. Step 7 Implement the control chart for future observation and monitoring.
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FORMULAE USED IN X AND R CHART

X X XUCL XLCL RUCL RLCL = (X1 + X2 + X3+.......+ Xn)/ n = (X1 + X2 + X3+.......+ Xn)/ n = R/d2 = X + A2R = X - A2R = RxD4 = RxD3
CONSTANTS D3 0 0 0 0 0 0.076 0.136 0.184 0.223 D4 3.267 2.574 2.282 2.115 2.004 1.924 1.864 1.816 1.777 d2 1.128 1.693 2.059 2.326 2.538 2.704 2.847 2.970 3.078
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n A2 2 1.88 3 1.023 4 0.729 5 0.577 6 0.483 7 0.419 8 0.373 9 0.337 10 0.308
How a x bar and R chart looks
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7 Control Chart Interpretation
60
The R chart is a plot of inherent process variation(spread) and it shows the stability of process variation over a period of time. It should be examined first. An out of control condition(due to special causes) should be eliminated after finding the cause. The X bar chart is a plot of process average and shows its stability over a period of time. A gradual trend in X bar chart indicates a shift in process average. It might be a result of change in controllable parameters such as tool sharpness, depth of cut, feed etc.
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These four test hold for both xbar and R Chart

62
Only for X bar

63
Control Chart Patterns and related causes Natural Pattern
A. Most of the points are near the grand average (centerline) - 68% B. A few of the points spread out and approach the control limits. C. Very few of the points (only 3 out of 1,000) exceed the control limits.
7 Some causes include :
7 When points fall within control limits, also referred to as common cause variation.
Machine capability Normal variation of incoming materials Uniformity of raw parts
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UNSTABLE CONDITION AND THEIR PROBABLE CAUSE
Single point out of control - 1 pt outside of control limits
Gradual Shift - Gradual change in process parameter. Afterwards the process stabilizes. In X bar chart due to : change in incoming quality of raw material, change in maintenance program In r chart due to : new operator, decrease in worker skill due 65 to fatigue
Trend - gradual shift in level which does not stabilize.(eg. Six points in a row on rising or declining trend or seven points on one side of center line) Causes In X bar chart : tool wear, die wear, gradual deterioration of equipment, build up of debris in jigs/fixtures. In R chart : gradual improvement in operator skill due to training, deterioration due to fatigue, deterioration in accuracy of m/c elements due to wear and tear(e.g..Spindle play)
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Cycle - Short trends in the data which occur in repeated patterns. Causes : Rotation in operator Periodic changes in temperature Seasonal variation of incoming components
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Wild Patterns Freaks - A single point or groups of points being
greatly different from the others
Causes:External disturbances influencing 1 or more samples. Cluster(eg. 9 points in a row on same side Of center line) Cluster of several observations definitely different from others Cause : Use of a new vendor for a short period Use of new tool for a short period Measurement & Sampling problem
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Stratification(eg. 15 points in a row within 1 sigma from Center line on either side) - All points very close to the center line. occurs when the output of several parallel (and assumed identical) processes into a single sample for charting the combined process. Typically a single sample is taken from each machine and included in the subgroup The output is combined and each distribution negates the other thus giving most of the points near the center line. It might also be due to charting the output of a process after gating. Remedial action is to have separate control charts.
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Mixtures - Opposite of stratification, a combination of two different patterns caused by presence of 2 or more population in the sample.(8 points in a row more than one sigma from center line on either side) Is similar to stratification, except the output of several parallel machines is mixed and the periodic sample is drawn from the mixture. Absence of points near the center line. Causes : Difference in quality of incoming material(different suppliers) Over control Representing 2 or more m/c on same chart
70
Systematic Variables - Predictable fluctuation or a saw tooth pattern.(14 points in a row oscillating up and down)
Instability - Identify by a person having large fluctuations and erratic ups and downs. Totally unpredictable!
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Other Control Conditions

8 Control chart tests are based on where points fall with regards to the 3 sigma limits.
Upper control limit
Zone A - (3 sigma) 2 out of 3 in zone or above Zone B - (2 sigma) 4 out of 5 in zone or above Zone C - (1 sigma) 7 in a row in zone or above Center Zone C - (1 sigma) 7 in a row in zone or above line Zone B - (2 sigma) 4 out of 5 in zone or above Zone A - (3 sigma) 2 out of 3 in zone or above
Lower control limit
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Once the final (modified if required) control limits are decided based on the trial run, these limits are used to monitor the process in the future. If any point is found out of limits or if any of the special cause id detected , action is taken to eliminate the special cause associated with it and then proceed. only after stability is achieved on X bar and R chart is One allowed to find out capability of a process through Cp=(USL-LSL)/(6*(R/d2)) Cpk=lower of( X-LSL)/(3*(R/d2)) &( USL-X)/(3*(R/d2))
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TEST OF HYPOTHESIS Conducts test through use of test statistic to accept or reject a alternate hypothesis
74
Key Symbols: Population Sample Mean : x Standard Deviation :s Proportion : p Size : n
Mean : P
Standard Deviation :V Proportion : P Size : N
Test statistic-Z,t,F
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A test statistic is used to find out the confidence Interval in which the parameter being Investigated will lie with a100 (1- ) % confidence level. is the probability of type 1 error(normally assumed 0.05).Alternatively if the value of the parameter is given, test statistic value with the parameter value is computed to find out if it lies in the acceptance region of Test statistic 100(1- )% confidence interval(found out from table of distribution of the test statistic).
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Comparison Testing: 9 A statistical hypothesis is a claim about the value of a population characteristic such as the population mean or variance. 9 In any hypothesis testing situation, there are always two contradictory hypotheses (claims) under consideration. The objective of hypothesis testing is to decide, based on information derived from a sample (because the population is either too large or does not exist), which of the two claims is correct.
77
The two competing statements or claims are called Null hypothesis (H0) and
Alternative hypothesis(H1) or (Ha).
78
A null hypothesis (Ho) hypothesis is a statement about the population(s) parameters. Usually, the null hypothesis represents the status quo or no difference statement Null Hypothesis(Ho) Usually describes a status Quo The one you assume unless otherwise shown Sign used are = or , .
79
Alternative hypothesis (H1) It represents all possible values for the population parameter except that in the Null Hypothesis. It is the statement that must be true if the null hypothesis is false. The Alternate hypothesis (Ha) Usually describe the difference The one you accept or reject based on the evidence Sign used are or ,< or ,>
80
Decision Matrix Decision Matrix Reality Decision Accept H0 Correct Decision H0 is true H1 is true H0 is false Type II error P(type II)= Consumer' risk s Correct Decision (1- )= power of the test.
81
Reject H0
Type I error P(type I) = Producers risk
Errors in Hypothesis Testing

Type , Error : The null hypothesis is rejected when it is actually true. The probability of type error is indicated by D, the level of significance of the test. Type ,, Error : The null hypothesis is not rejected even though it is false. The probability of a type error is denoted by E.
82
The power of a hypothesis test

The power of a hypothesis test is equal to (1- ). It is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is false. In general, the more powerful the test, the better it is.
The right way to perform a comparison test is to determine, before the test is conducted, how large of a difference is meaningful and then ensure that the sample size is chosen such that the test has sufficient power (say 80 or 90 percent) to detect that difference.
83
Six steps in hypothesis testing

Hypothesis testing usually involves the following six action steps: Step 1: State the hypothesis. This could be a specific statement about a population parameter.
Step 2: Choose (D). The alpha factor designates the risk of rejecting the hypothesis if it is actually true. Common values are 0.05 or 0.01
84
Step 3: Choose the test statistic for testing the hypothesis. This could be a Z-statistic, t-statistic, an F-statistic, or a Chi-square statistic. The statistic used depends on the type of test being conducted.
Step 4: Determine the acceptance region for the test i.e. the range of values of the test statistic which results in a decision to accept the hypothesis. Define pass/fail criteria of the test.
85
Step 5: Draw a representative sample from the product population, calculate sample statistics such as the sample mean, sample variance or, in case of discrete values, proportion defectives and apply a hypothesis test using these statistics. Compute the test statistic and compare the obtained value with the acceptance region to make a decision to accept or reject the hypothesis. Step 6: Draw an engineering conclusion.
86
Confidence Interval of test statistic

Interval estimation consists of finding an interval defined by two end points--- say, L and U --- such that the probability of the parameter being contained in the interval is some value (1-). P( Ld TdU ) = (1-D) This represents a two sided confidence interval, with L representing the lower confidence level and U representing the upper confidence level.
87
Confidence intervals can also be one sided . An interval of the type Ld T, such that P(L d T) = 1-D is a one sided lower 100(1- ) % confidence interval for . An interval of the type T dU, such that P( TdU ) = 1-D is an upper 100(1- ) % confidence interval for . OR
Example for Z statistic is shown on next slide

88
Z Curve ( Probability distribution of test statistic z with one tailed And two tailed rejection region based on )
Shaded Area = = P (type 1 error )
Shaded Area = /2
Shaded Area =
/2
0 z -z/2 /2 (b) (a) Rejection region:either Rejection region:zz Rejection region:z-z z z/2 or z -z/2 Rejection region for z tests:(a) upper- tailed test; (b) lower-tailed test; two-tailed test
89
-z
TESTING MEAN EFFECTS DUE TO FACTOR LEVELS

2t test- Mean effect of 2 levels of assignable factor Paired t test-Mean effect of 2 levels of assignable factor One way ANOVA-Mean effect of multi levels of assignable factor
90
2t test
Fixture1 Sample size n1 Mean= 1 Std.deviation= Fixture2 Sample size n2 Mean= 2 Std.deviation=
Is difference between 1 and 2 of the dependent Variable a result of Sampling error or do they come from Different population signifying effect Due to fixture?
91
Variances of the two populations assumed equal: We assume that each population is normally distributed. If we assume that the population variances, though unknown are equal, i.e. 21= 22 An F test needs to be done to verify equality of variance Hypothesis H0: 1- 2= 0 H1: 1- 2 0 H0: 1- 2 0 H1: 1- 2 > 0 H0: 1- 2 0 H1: 1- 2 < 0 t0 < - t,n1+n2-2
Rejection Region |t0|>t/2,n1+n2-2, t0 >t,n1+n2-2
92
Test Statistic
t0 =
(X1- X2) - 0 sp (1/ n1+ 1/ n2 )
If the distribution is non normal then take n1 & n2 > 30
Sp2=(n1-1)s21+(n2-1)s22 / n1+ n2-2 ( degrees of freedom = n1+ n2 1 )
Depending on whether calculated t0 lies in the acceptance or Rejection Region from students t table alternate hypothesis is rejected or accepted respectively.
93
If the variance of populations cannot be assumed to be equal: Hypothesis H0: 1- 2= 0 H1: 1- 2 0 Rejection Region |t0|>t/2,, H0: 1- 2 0 H1: 1- 2 > 0 t0 >t, H0: 1- 2 0 H1: 1- 2 < 0 t0 < - t,
Test Statistic
t0 =
(X1- X2) - 0 s21/n1+s22/n2
Q = (s21/n1+s22/n2 )2 (s21/n1)2+ (s22/n2 )2 (degree of freedom) n2-1 n1-1

94
Example of two sample t test :
A large corporation is interested in determining whether the average days of sick leave taken annually is more for night shift employees than for day shift employees.It is assumed that the distribution of the days of sick leave is normal for both shifts and that the variances of sick leave taken are equal for both shifts. A random sample of 12 employees from the night shift yields an average sick leave X1 of 16.4 days with a standard deviation of 2.2 days. A random sample of 15 employees from the day shift yields an average sick leave X2 of 12.3 days with a std. dev. Of 3.5 days. At a level of significance of .05, can we conclude that the average sick leave for the night shift exceeds that for the day shift? Solution: The hypotheses are The pooled estimate of the variance, Sp2 =
11(2.2)2 + 14(3.5)2 25
H0 :1 2 0 ;
H1 : :1 2 >0
So Sp = 2.998 15/20 t.05,25=1.708. Since the test statistic is less than 1.708 and does not fall in the rejection region, we cannot reject the null hypothesis .Therefore we cannot conclude that there is evidence of average sick leave for the night shift exceeding that for the day 95 shift. Circulation Only Six Sigma Central Coordination Group For Internal
= 8.990 Test Statistic t0=
(16.4-12.3) 0
=1.491
A study was performed in order to evaluate the effectiveness of two devices for improving the efficiency of gas home-heating systems. Energy consumption in houses was measured after each of the devices was installed. The two devices were an electric vent damper (Damper=1) and a thermally activated vent damper (Damper=2). The energy consumption data (BTU.In) are stacked in one column with a grouping column (Damper) containing identifiers or subscripts to denote the population. After a variance test no evidence was found for variances being unequal. Now we want to compare the effectiveness of these two devices by determining whether or not there is any evidence that there is significant difference between the means of the two devices ie testing alternate hypothesis 1- 2 is not equal to zero.
BTU.In 7.87 9.43 7.16 8.67 12.31 9.84 16.9 10.04 12.62 7.62 11.12 13.43 9.07 6.94 10.28 9.37 7.93 13.96 6.8
Example
Damper 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
BTU.In 4 8.58 8 5.98 15.24 8.54 11.09 11.7 12.71 6.78 9.82 12.91 10.35 9.6 9.58 9.83 9.52 18.26 10.64
Damper 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
BTU.In 6.62 5.2 12.28 7.23 2.97 8.81 9.27 11.29 8.29 9.96 10.3 16.06 14.24 11.43 10.28 13.6 5.94 10.36 6.85
Damper 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
BTU.In 6.72 10.21 8.61 11.62 11.21 10.95 7.62 10.4 12.92 15.12 13.47 8.47 11.7 7.73 8.37 7.29 10.49 8.69 8.26
Damper 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
BTU.In 7.69 12.19 5.56 9.76 7.15 12.69 13.38 13.11 10.5 14.35 13.42 6.35 9.83 12.16
Damper 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
96
Using Minitab on 2 sample T Test

Use menus: Stat / Basic statistics /2 Sample T test ...
If data is stacked in one column
Response data Data population code
If data is two column

Response data of first population Response data of Second population Test the equality of variance & then select the required setting
97
Minitab Output
Sd/Sqrt(N)
confidence interval is a range of likely values for the difference, 1 - 2 If reference value (0 in this case ) lies outside the confidence interval then reject Null Hypothesis T= (1- 2)/(pooled SE Mean)
Sd. Of sample
Note -If P<0.05 reject null hypothesis and accept alternate hypothesis This means that in this example difference of mean not equal to zero
98
PAIRED t test DIFF.
MATL.HARDNESS A PAIR1 PAIR2 . . . PAIR n X1A X2A
MATL.HARDNESS B B X1B X2B
X1d X2d
XnA
XnB
Xnd
Is the average of differences between observations of the dependent variable on the two Material types large enough to indicate that observations are from two different population signifying the effect of hardness?
99
Paired t- test : Often a test can be designed so that the observations on same sample are taken in pairs to increase the ability to detect small difference. Data are taken in (n) pairs and the difference (d) within each pair is calculated for dependent samples i.e. effect of factor has to be found on same sample. Hypothesis for Paired T test H0: P d = 0 H0: P d 0 H0: P d 0 H1: P d 0 Rejection Region |t0|>t/2,n-1, H1: P d > 0 t0 >t,n-1 H1: P d
<
where P d is the population mean of the differences and P 0 is the hypothesized mean of the differences
100
t0 < - t, n-1
To calculate the test statistic t0, the mean of the differences Xd and the sample standard deviation Sd are calculated. d Sd
t0 =
The null hypothesis is rejected if calculated to lies in the rejection region of t from table
101
Example
A shoe company wants to compare two materials, A and B, for use on the soles of boys shoes. In this example, each of ten boys in a study wore a special pair of shoes with the sole of one shoe made from Material A and the sole on the other shoe made from Material B. The sole types were randomly assigned to account for systematic differences in wear between the left and right foot. After three months, the shoes are measured for wear.
Mat-A 13.2 8.2 10.9 14.3 10.7 6.6 9.5 10.8 8.8 13.3 Mat-B 14 8.8 11.2 14.2 11.8 6.4 9.8 11.3 9.3 13.6
102
Using Minitab on Paired sample T Test

Use menus: Stat / Basic statistics /Paired T test ...
Sample 1 data
Sample 2 data
Click Option
Confidence interval of test Null hypothesis Put the test condition not equal or less than or greater than as required
103
Minitab Output
Sd/Sqrt(N)
Sd. Of sample
confidence interval is a range of likely values of d
d =
population mean of the differences
T= d/ (pooled SE Mean)
Note -If P<0.05 Or if reference value in this case(0) does not lie in the interval reject null hypothesis and accept alternate hypothesis
104
ONE WAY ANOVA

One-way analysis of variance tests the equality of population means when classification is by one variable. The classification variable, or factor, usually has three or more levels (one-way ANOVA with two levels is equivalent to a t-test).
105
One way ANOVA
Tool1 Sample size n Mean= 1 Std.deviation=
Tool2 Sample size n Mean= 2 Std.deviation=
Tool3 Sample size n Mean= 3 2Std.deviation=
Tool4 Sample size n Mean= 2 Std.deviation= 3
Do the means of the observation on the dependent variable For the four tools come from the same population Or are they from different populations signifying the presence Of a effect?
106
Hypothesis for 1 way ANOVA The null hypothesis Ho for the test is that all population means ( All level) are the same. The alternative hypothesis Ha is that one or more population means differ from the others.
107
APPLICATION STEPS
Steps to consider when applying a single factor analysis of variance: 1. Describe the problem using a response variable that corresponds to the key process output variable or measured quality characteristic. Example of applications include the following: a. Customer delivery time is sometimes too long. b. The dimension on a part is not meeting specification. Describe the analysis. Example applications include the following: a. Determine if there is a difference in the mean delivery time of five departments. b. Determine if there is a difference in the dimension of a part when a particu1ar setting on a machine is changed to five different levels. Test the null and alternate hypotheses. delivery time of department X.
H o : 1 = 2 = 3 = 4
2.
3.
H A : 1 2 3 4
108
Analysis of variance is a misleading name for a statistical method and model that deals with differences in the means of a variable across groups Since the methodsl employ ratios of variances in order to determine whether the means differ we call it analysis of variance.
Control
Control
1 , 1
2 , 2
x 1 , s1 n= 10
x 2 , s2 n= 10
109
The follow ing assumptions are made in ANOVA: 1. Independence of observations. 2. Means and variances of population should be independent. It turns out that this can be only be safely assumed only if population is normally distributed.(or choose n > 30) 3. For an analysis of variance hypothesis test. model errors are assumed lo be normally and independently distributed random variables with mean zero and variance 2. This variance is assumed constant for all factor levels.
110
The overall variation of the data is given by:
SStotal = ( yij y )
i =1 j =1
Total variability in data as measured by
a n
.(2)
SS represents Sum of squares which when divided by degree of freedom gives mean square which is a indicator of variance
Betw een-group variability focuses on how the sample mean of each

group(level) differs from the overall or grand mean. Sometimes called "explained variation because it is due to group structure. Within-group variability measures the variation about the mean of each group(level) and is used to estimate the variation within each group or category in the research problem. Sometimes called "unexplained" or "residual" variation.Its is assumed equal for all levels as it reflects part to part variation.
111
SStotal = SS factorlevels + SS error

The first element includes a measure of the variance due to differences between the means due to effect of levels as well as any random difference, whereas the second element is due to random error.
SS factorlevels = n ( yi y ) 2
i =1
SS error = ( yij yi )
i =1 j =1
a n
yi= mean of individual subgroup Y = mean of all observations Yij = individual observations i=sub group levels j=observation no within subgroup
112
The main goal in ANOVA is to see whether or not the variation betw een sample means representing various levels of a factor is significantly greater than that w ithin the samples themselves. A greater variation betw een the samples than w ithin the samples would suggest that the two groups came from different populations (i.e., a significant difference exists). When divided by the appropriate number of DOF(degree of freedom), these sum of squares gives good estimate of the total variability.
MS factorlevels =
SS factorlevels a 1
.(6)
MS errors
SS errors = na
.(7)
113
The null hypothesis that there is no difference in factor levels is tested by calculating the F -test statistic:
F0 =
MS factorlevels MSerror
Using an F table, we should reject the null hypothesis and conclude there are differences in treatment means if
F0 > F , a 1,n a
Minitab also does comparision of mean difference to find significant difference between levels
114
Data shows durability of four types of carpet. To examine whether means of all four carpets are same or mean of at-least one carpet is significantly different 115
Using Minitab on 1way ANOVA test

Use menus: Stat / ANOVA /One way ...
Response Variable
Factor Level of data
Click Ok
116
Minitab Output
If the intervals for two means do not overlap, it suggests that the population means are different No of observation of each level Common Sd of all level Mean of Each level
Mean of Each level
Note -If P<0.05 reject null hypothesis and accept alternate hypothesis There is no difference in mean in given example as P>0.05.
117
COMPARISON OF MEAN THROUGH MINITAB
Stat-ANOVA-General Linear Model-comparisons
118
Interval for Diff. Of mean of carpet1-mean ofcarpet2
Since all intervals contain zero none of the differences are significant.If an interval does not contain zero the difference is significant and must 119 be investigated. Six Sigma Central Coordination Group
Comparison of mean effect of Nested factors (fixed)

A factor B is said to be nested within A if all levels of B can only exist as a sublevel of A
120
machine
All the factors are fixed and one has to find whether significant difference between the two spindles or tools exist
Spindle 1
Spindle 2
tool1
tool2
tool1
tool2
Is the mean effect of spindle and tool significant?
121
The above structure shows the readings of a dependent variable for 6 spindles of a machine with two tools per spindle for 4 time periods.To investigate whether differences between spindle and tool are significant
122
Stat-ANOVA-General Linear Model
Shows tool Nested within Spindle and part Nested within tool Time is assumed Random factor
123
The p value of <0.05 for spindle denote that the one of the spindle means is Different from the others and requires investigation.
124
COMPARISON OF VARIANCE ANOVA with random factors(nested

For hierarchical structure,SHANIN range method)
F test Levenes test( Minitab)
125
Is used in the initial stages of a exercise to find Out variance due to identified assignable factors with multiple levels mostly nested in a family tree.The selection of levels is a random selection from population.
Nested ANOVA with Random factors
126
For the random factor model as discussed in the previous slide the among levels mean square for a factor estimates the Variability of the levels of a factor and any variability in this estimate comes as a result of variability in the estimate of 2 and sample to sample differences in levels selected at random from a population. If the factors are nested we use nested ANOVA with all treatments(levels) for a factor as random and the P value <0.05for each factor indicates variability of treatment means>0.
127
Example An engineer trying to understand the sources of variability in the manufacture casting. The process of making the casting requires mixing materials in small furnaces for which the temperature setting is to be 475 F. Company has a number of plants where the Casting are made, Engineer select four as a random sample. He conduct an experiment and measure furnace temperature three times during a work shift for each of four operators from each plant over four different shifts
(factors chosen at random from a population) Df = (N-1) =(4-1)=3 Plant 1 Plant 2 Plant 3 Plant 4
Nested structure
Operator -1
Operator -2
Operator -3
Operator -4
Df = (N-1)*Nplnat =(4-1)*4=12
Shift 11
Shift 12
Shift 13
Shift 14
Df = (N-1)*N(ope)r*N(plant) =(4-1)*4*4=48
Batch 1
Batch 2
Batch3
Df = (N-1)*N(shift)*N(oper)*N(plant) =(3-1)*4*4*4=128
128
Using Minitab to obtain nested ANOVA Use menus: Stat / ANOVA / Fully Nested ANOVA ...
Response Variable
Factors in hierarchical order ( Higher To lower order based on Nested Diagram )
Hypothesis for Nested ANOVA

H0 (the null hypothesis): That the Variances for the factors is Zero H1 (the alternative hypothesis): That the Variances for the factors is significantly different from Zero
129
Minitab Output
Degree of Freedom for the each factor
P value is based on the following hypothesis test Ha = Variance of the factor is not Zero Ho = Variance of the factor is Zero If P value is <0.05 for =0.05 reject H0
Sequential Sum of square for the factor
Variance of the Component
% of total Variance
130
B Vs. C
OBJECTIVE : VALIDATES A BETTER OR A SUPERIOR PRODUCT OR PROCESS (B) OVER CURRENT ONE (C) WITH A DESIRED STATISTICAL CONFIDENCE. (UAUALLY 95%) EVALUATES ENGINEERING CHANGES
PROCEDURE FOR B Vs C
STEP 1 : CHOOSE AN ACCEPTABLE LEVEL OF D RISK STEP 2 : DECIDE ON SAMPLE SIZES FOR B AND C TESTS STEP 3 : RANDOMIZE AND CONDUCT THE TEST STEP 4 : RANK ORDER THE RESULTS STEP 5 : DECISION RULES STEP 6 : SEPARATE THE MEANS - THE RISK
(ASSUMING IMPROVEMENT WHEN NO IMPROVEMENT EXISTS)
(ASSUMING NO IMPROVEMENT WHEN IMPROVEMENT EXISTS)
DECISION RULES
No overlap End count techniques: B B B C C C Best Worst B end count = 3 ; C end count = 3 Total end counts = Total no. of rankings ( No overlap ) The Overlap End count techniques: B B B C B C Best B end count = 3 ; C end count = 4 Total end counts = 7 Confidence Level End Counts > 90 6 95 7 99 Separate the means X - bar ( B) - X - bar ( C ) 10 >KV
B Vs. C
C Worst
SHANIN RANGE METHOD (Previous example evaluated)
134
plant1 operator shift Batch 14.46 Range batch avg.shift range of mean of shift w ithin operator average of operator range of operator w ithin plant plant2 17.29 1 2 3 1 1 2 3 17 12 21 9 16.7 1 2 18 15 14 3 12 15 8 4 22 17 14 8 17.7 1 11 14 10 4 11.7 2 2 19 22 17 3 10 17 23 4 20 13 18 7 17 1 15 12 10 5 12.3 3 2 0 9 12 3 17 23 15 4 16 20 11 9 15.7 1 5 4 11 7 6.67 4 2 17 15 11 3 21 17 15 4 10 15 14 5 13
Range Method of Shanin
4 7 15.7 11.7 6.00 15.42 17 22 21 19 17 22
5 13 19.3 16.7 7.67 16.17 12 15 10 12 17 15
3.25 22 17 23 6 20.7 6.25 17 11 9 8 12.3 6 5 11 6 7.33 25 21 17 8 21
12 8 7 18.3 11.33 13.33 22 23 25 17 16 21
6 6 14.3 17.7 11.00 12.92 16 11 12 15 15 12
24 17 21 7 20.7
17 10 19 9 15.3
12 15 15 3 14
19 16 25 9 20
17 15 16 2 16
21 10 12 11 14.3
Range batch avg.shift range of mean of shift w ithin operator average of operator range of operator w ithin plant Plant3 11.98 1 2 3
5 5 20 19.3 5.33 18.83 17 11 14 9 13 8
5 5 12.3 8.33 15.42 11 13 16 18 20 14
3 5 23.3 18 5.33 20.58 13 15 18 11 9 11
5 3 13 14 3.00 14.33 13 15 13 17 10 9
15 10 9 6 11.3
17 15 13 4 15
10 6 8 4 8
15 17 12 5 14.7
9 11 8 3 9.33
3 11 9 8 7.67
Range batch avg.shift range of mean of shift w ithin operator average of operator range of operator w ithin plant plant4 15.79 1 2 3
6 5 14 10 5.00 12.58 16 15 14 15 10 9
5 6 13.3 17.3 9.33 12.75 22 23 19 17 19 15
2.08 12 16 19 7 15.7 10 21 21 11 17.3
5 2 15.3 10.3 8.00 11.92 15 10 15 9 17 22
2 8 13.7 12 6.00 10.67 17 13 11 10 8 14
24 17 20 7 20.3
21 16 12 9 16.3
9 15 19 10 14.3
25 19 14 11 19.3
9 13 15 6 12.3
23 17 16 7 18.7
Range batch avg.shift range of mean of shift w ithin operator average of operator range of operator w ithin plant range of plant
2 6 15 11.3 9 15.75
4 4 21.3 17 7 17.08
3.25
5 13 13.3 16 6 16.50
6 6 13.7 10.7 8 13.83
max range of operator max range of shift max range of batch
5.31 6.25 11.33 13
135
F test
136
Hypothesis Testing for the ratio of two variances: (F-test) We assume that both populations are normally distributed. Hypotheses H0: 2= 20 H1: 220 H0: 2 20 H1: 2>20 H0: 2 20 H1: 2< 20
Rejection Region F0> F/2,n1-1,n2-1, F0 > F,n1-1,n2-1 F0 < F(1-),n1-1,n2-1 F0 < F(1-/2 ,n1-1,n2-1 Test Statistic F0=
(
s2 1 s2 2
( d.o.f.: n1-1,n2-1)
137
Example of F-test :
The variabilities of the service times of two bank tellers are of interest. We want to determine whether the variance of service time for the first teller is greater than that for the second. A random sample of 8 observations from the first teller yields a sample average of 3.4 min. with a standard deviation of 1.8 min. A random sample of 10 observations from the second teller yields a sample average of 2.5 min. with a standard deviation of 0.9 min. Can we conclude that the variance of the service time is greater for the first teller than for the second? Use a level of significance of 0.05. Solution: The hypotheses are The test statistic is H0: 21 22
(1.8)2
H1: 21>22
= 4.00
F=
(0.9)2
From table F0.05,7,9= 3.29. The test statistic lies in the rejection region, and so we reject the null hypothesis.
138
LEVENES TEST
139
Example
In a experimental study conditions conducive to potato rot by injecting potatoes with bacteria that cause rotting and subjecting them to different temperature and oxygen regimes. Check the equal variance assumption.
Rot 13 11 3 10 4 7 15 2 7 26 19 24 15 22 18 20 24 8
Temp 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
140
Use menus: Stat / ANOVA /Test for equal of variance test ...
Using Minitab on Variance test
Response Variable
Factor Level of data
Null hypothesis (Ho) is that the population variances under consideration (or equivalently, the population standard deviations) are equal. Alternative hypothesis (H1) is that not all variances are equal.
141
Minitab Output
Levenes test is not sensitive to assumption of normality
Note -If P<0.05 reject null hypothesis and accept alternate hypothesis This means that in this example variances are not equal to each others
142
SHANIN DOE
143
PAIRED COMPARISON
Are incoming parameters on product affecting the response?
144
Why is it required ?
1.
To identify what suspect product characteristic or quality parameter is contributing to the problem.
2. This tool can be used only if there are suspect product parameters ( hardness, yield strength, ovality,etc.) that are contributing to the problem.
145
Steps followed in paired comparison :
. Identify eight Very good parts and eight Very bad parts which are having the problem that is under analysis. . List as many Product characteristics/parameters which may explain the difference between the Good and Bad parts (This list is based on the engineering judgment of the person/team, but later will be proved using this tool). List it in the descending order or importance to the problem . . Measure all the Good parts and bad parts for the parameters identified above. There will then be totally 16 values. . Arrange the 16 values in the rank order (start from the smallest to the largest or the largest to the smallest) irrespective of whether they are good or bad.
146
. Write against each value whether that particular value corresponds to a bad or Good part. If it belongs to the good part write G within bracket after the value. If it belongs to the bad part, write B within bracket after the value. . From the top, find out when for the first time, the Good changes to Bad (or) the Bad changes to Good. . Draw a line at the change point (For e.g.., if the change occurs after the 5th data, draw a line after the fifth data). . From the bottom, find out when for the first time, the Good changes to Bad (or) the Bad changes to Good. . Draw a line at the change point (For e.g.., if the change occurs after the 15th value from the bottom, draw a line between 15 & 16).
147
. Find out the top count (Count the number of values till the line is drawn). . Find out the Bottom count (Count the number of values till the line is drawn from the bottom). . Add both these counts to find the Total count. . If the Total count <=5, then that quality parameter or product characteristic is not the reason for the problem. . If the Total count is = 6, it can be concluded that at 90% confidence level, it is this quality parameter or product characteristic that is leading to the problem.
148
Rules for Count 1. If first & last parameter are of same family ( Both Bad or both good ) then there is no significance . 2. At the point of transition ( when good converting to bad or Bad converting to good ) if same two values appeared then we subtract from the count for the two value. 3. At the point of transition ( when good converting to bad or Bad converting to good ) if same three or more values appeared then we delete the entire block from count.
149
Confidence Level for other counts:
Number of Total count 6 7 10 13
Confidence level 90% 95% 99% 99.90%
150
The DOE team suspected the hardness of the shell as one of the product characteristics that could lead to crack . Pair comparison was done to find out whether this indeed was the parameter leading to the crack The eight good(Best of Best) & eight bad (Worse of Worse) are selected & its results are shown below
Hardness Value Component 55 B 54 B 54.5 B 49 B 51 B 50 B 52 B 51.5 B 46 G 42 G 42 G 49 G 51.5 G 50 G 44 G
Example
151
The results after arranging in the rank order ( Lower To Higher)

Hardness Value Component 42 G 42 G 44 G 46 G 49 B 49 G 50 B 50 G 51 B 51.5 B 51.5 G 52 B 54 B 54.5 B 55 B
Top Count =4
Bottom Count = 5-12 =4.5
Total Count =8.5 ,explains that the hardness is creating the problem at 95% confidence level 152
Process parameter search

Does a process parameter have significant impact on the output?
153
/ PROCESS SEA RCH

OB J ECT I V E :
Process Search separates important Process parameters from unimportant ones.
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Met hodology :
1. If process parameters variations are suspected as possible causes for good and bad finished products, make a list of these process parameters, in descending order of likelihood. 2. Determine how each process parameter is to be measured, who is to measure it, and where precisely it is to be measured. 3. Make sure that the accuracy of the measuring instrument is at least 5 times the accuracy ( tolerance) of the process parameter.
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M e t h o d o l o g y : conti.
4. Make sure that the actual process parameters, not just mere settings, measured.
5. If a particular process parameter does not vary at all while being monitored, it can be eliminated from further consideration. 6. Run a 100 % sample of units or a multi-vari sample of units until :
A minimum of eight good units and eight bad units are collected at the end of the process. The spread between the best unit and the worst unit is a minimum of 80% of the historic variation observed on the product produced by the process.
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M e t h o d o l o g y :conti.
7. Measure all the designated process parameters associated with each unit. 8. As the units go through the process, a determination of whether the units are going to be good or bad cannot be made until the end of the process. This means that many potentially good units will have to be measured, along with many potentially bad units, in order to obtain a minimum of eight eventually bad units. 9. A Paired Comparison of the process parameters associated with the eight good and eight bad units is then run. And a Tukey test is performed on each parameter, with total end count calculation.
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M e t h o d o l o g y :conti..
10. If there are several process parameters identified with 90% or greater confidence, run a B verses C test to verify that the important parameters are truly captured. 11. Next, a variable search or a full factorial should be run to quantify the most important parameters and their interaction effect. 12. Further optimization, through Scatter Plots or Evolutionary Operation, followed by Positrol, Process Certification, and Pre-control should be conducted. 13. The tolerances of the unimportant parameters in step 8 can be expanded to reduce costs, although some experimentation may be necessary to determine how much to expand them.
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Example
In a foundry process following process parameters where identified as the suspects for this problem. A/ Cooling time B/ Zone temperature C/Mould temperature The data collected for 8 good & 8 bad parts as given below.
Spec Good Good Good Bad Bad Good Bad Good Good Bad Bad Bad Good Good Bad Bad Cooling Time Zone Temp. 3Sec 415-425 Deg. 3.1 423 3 415 3.1 422 2.9 422 2.8 419 3 419 2.9 417 3 418 3 420 3 420 2.8 417 2.8 414 3 414 3 420 2.8 415 2.8 416 Molding Temp 100-110 106 103 105 109 101 105 102 105 105 108 108 104 103 105 102 103
Identify the parameter that is creating the problem.

159
The results of cooling time after arranging in the rank order ( Lower To Higher)
Spec Bad Bad Bad Bad Bad Bad Good Good Good Good Bad Good Good Good Good 3Sec Cooling Time 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3.1 3.1
Reduce matrix after Block removal
Spec Bad Bad Bad Bad Good Good
Cooling Time 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.1
4 2
Based on Rule 4 of paired comparison Total block of data is removed.
Total Count =6,explains that the cooling time is suspected parameter for the problem at 90% confidence level 160
The results of Zone Temp after arranging in the rank order ( Lower To Higher)
Spec Bad Good Bad Bad Bad Good Good Good Bad Good Bad Good Good 415-425 Deg. Zone Temp. 415 415 416 417 417 418 419 420 420 420 422 422 423
The results of Molding Temp after arranging in the rank order ( Lower To Higher)
Spec 100-110 Molding Temp 102 103 103 105 105 105 105 105 106 108 108 109
1/2
2-1/2
Bad Good Bad Good Good Good Good Good Good Bad Bad Bad
Total Count =2,explains that the Zone temp is not suspected parameter
Total Count =4,explains that the Molding is not suspected parameter

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Regression Analysis
ESTABLISHES THE RELATION SHIP BETWEEN A CONTINUOUS INPUT VARIABLE AND A CONTINUOUS OUTPUT VARIABLE AND ALSO HELPS IN FINDING OUTTHE TOLERANCE OF INPUT VARIABLE REQUIRED TO ACHIEVE OUTPUT SPECIFICATION
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Simple Regression Analysis
The regression analysis is performed when there is single X(Predictor)
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What is Regression Analysis

Regression analysis is a statistical technique used to model & investigate or predict the relationship between dependent variable & the independent variable.
Where Y is the response, X is the predictor, equal to sigma
and
are the regression coefficients,
e the error terms with normal distribution with mean equal to zero & standard deviation The regression analysis perform when the X &Y are continuous . Regression Is a hypothesis test Ha :The model is significant predictor of the response Ho : The model is not a significant predictor of the response
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Using Minitab to obtain regression equation Use menus: Stat / Regression / Regression ...
Dependent variable
Independent variable (Mintab labels as Predictor)
Click Graph
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Analysis of residuals ( Difference between the observed value & corresponding fitted value )
Select following order
Residual analysis investigate adequacy of fitted model & detecting departures from the model
By residual analysis technique 1. 2. 3. Check the normality assumption through a normal probability plot and /or histogram of the residual Check the correlation between residuals by plotting residuals in time sequence Check the correctness of the model by plotting residual versus fitted values.
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Analysis of Residuals
1. Normality Assessment : The histogram plot of residuals should look like a sample from normal distribution which is the assumption for regression analysis. 2. Time Sequence :A plot of residuals against the observation order as a graphical way of detecting a correlation that may exist between random errors. 3. Fitted Value : Residuals plotted against the fits should be randomly scatter & having no pattern . Check for outliers ,non constant variance ( Difference in the residual values either increases or decreases for the increase in the fitted value ) & poor model fit ( Residual value tend to increase and then decrease with an increase in the fitted
value )
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Minitab output
Regression Analysis: Drug_conc versus Height The regression equation is Drug_conc = 79.3 - 6.30 Height Predictor Constant Height S = 9.751 Coef 79.296 -6.296 SE Coef 6.023 1.176
Regression equation
T 13.17 -5.35 P 0.000 0.000
P value of constant is based on the following hypothesis test Ha = Coefficient is not constant Ho = Coefficient is constant If P value is <0.05 for =0.05 reject Ho or coefficient is not constant
R-Sq = 68.8%
R-Sq(adj) = 66.4%
Analysis of Variance Source Regression Residual Error Total DF 1 13 14 SS 2726.0 1236.0 3962.0 MS 2726.0 95.1 F 28.67 P 0.000
P value of predictor is based on the following hypothesis test Ha = Coefficient is not zero Ho = Coefficient is zero If P value is <0.05 for =0.05 reject Ho or coefficient of predictor is not zero
S represent the std.error of the prediction = Sigma of individual data point
R2 Value represent the
proportion of variation in the response data explained by the predictors In general , the closer R2 is to 1 ,The better the fit of the model
Adj(R-Sq) is the % of variation explained by the model adjusted for the no. of terms in your model & no. of data points
P value of regression is based on the following hypothesis test Ha = The model is a significant predictor of response Ho = The model not a significant predictor of response If P value is <0.05 for =0.05 reject Ho or the model having significant predictor of response
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Use menus: Stat / Regression / Fitted Line Plot ...
Using Minitab on Regression Analysis :Confidence & prediction Band
Dependent variable
Independent variable (Minitab labels as Predictor)
Click Option
Click both the box
Click Ok
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Minitab Output
A confidence band ( or interval ) is a measure of the certainty of the shape of the fitted line at 95% confidence interval .
A prediction band ( or interval ) is a measure of the certainty of the scatter of individual points about the regression line
The regression line always passes through the average value of the cause variable X and the average value of the response variable Y. The prediction interval & confidence interval are at a minimum width at X = X bar.
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Use of Regression plot in Tolerancing The prediction interval is used in statistical tolerancing
USL
LSL
Shows the Band for controlling X to meet tolerance
Note1 -In positive co-relation The USL should cut the upper prediction line & on negative co-relation vice versa Note2 If the line do not cross in a negative relationship or line cross in positive relationship, you can not use this relationship to control the output 171
Multiple Regression Analysis
The regression analysis is perform , when there is Multiple X(Predictor)
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Multiple linear regression examines the linear relationships between one continuous response(Y) and two or more predictors (X).
yi = 0 + 1x1i + 2x2i + ... + kxki

where yi = a value of the dependent variable, y
0 = the y-intercept
x1i, x2i, ... , xki = individual values of the independent variables, x1, x2, ... , xk
1, 2 ,... , k = the partial regression coefficients for the independent variables, x1, x2, ... , xk
Regression Is a hypothesis test Ha :The model is significant predictor of the response Ho : The model is not a significant parameter.
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Using Minitab on Multiple Regression Analysis :Using Subset Method
The Regression analysis using subset method is used to select or identify a group of predictor variable (Xs) which are important. This technique is used to funnel group of predictor to important predictors. These important predictors are used further in multiple regression analysis.
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Using Minitab to obtain regression equation by best Sub Set method
Use menus:
Stat / Regression / Best subset ...
Dependent variable
Independent variables (Minitab labels as Predictors)
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Minitab Output
Note : Start with the single factor & select the variable having highest R-sq(adj) & lowest C-P ( In single factor) . Then take two factor & so on.. . Stop When C-P value become minimum & then increases Do multiple regression on these Selected Predictor variable
Using given criteria, the model (row 5) with four

Small Sd of error in the model
predictors,( Score-2, insulation ,East ,South & north appears to be the best among all the Xs
Highest Sum of square
Lowest C-p(which is used to determine minimum no. of parameter which best fits the model . It measures Sum of square of biases + squares of random error in Y at all n data points)
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Using Minitab to obtain regression equation Use menus: Stat / Regression / Regression ...
Dependent variable
Independent variables (Mintab labels as Predictors)
177
Minitab Output
Regression Equation
P value of constant is based on the following hypothesis test Ha = Coefficient is not constant Ho = Coefficient is constant If P value is <0.05 for =0.05 reject Ho or coefficient is not constant P value of predictor is based on the following hypothesis test Ha = Coefficient is not zero Ho = Coefficient is zero If P value is <0.05 for =0.05 reject Ho or coefficient of predictors are not zero
P value of regression is based on the following hypothesis test Ha = The model is a significant predictor of response Ho = The model is not a significant predictor of response If P value is <0.05 for =0.05 reject Ho or the model is a significant predictor & response
R2 Value represent the
proportion of variation in the response data explained by the predictors In general , the closer R- Sq is to 1 ,The better the fit of the model
Adj(R-Sq) is the % of variation explained by the model adjusted for the no. of terms in your model & no. of data points 178
Minitab Output
Total Sum of all Seq SS is SS Regression given in previous table sum
179
Analysis of residuals ( Difference between the observed value & corresponding fitted value )
Select following order
Residual analysis investigate adequacy of fitted model & detecting departures from the model
By residual analysis technique 1. 2. 3. Check the normality assumption through a normal probability plot and /or histogram of the residual Check the correlation between residuals by plotting residuals in time sequence Check the correctness of the model by plotting residual versus fitted values.
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Design Of Experiment
181
Y=f(X1,X2,X3,X4) Find out the optimum combination of levels of x1,x2,x3,x4 Which will optimize Y
182
The above table shows the durability values of pins found with combination of factors namely vendor size of clip and heat-treated state of clip.Each has been tried out at two levels.Are the three factors and their interaction Significant? 183
Each row in the previous slide is a experimental condition with a combination of various level of the factor coded as -1 and +1.Each experimental condition has a output that is measured during experimental run. The example in the previous slide is a 23 factorial experiment with two replication thus requiring 16 experimental runs. Once the output of all experimental condition using all possible combination of factor levels is obtained these are than analyzed to find out the mean effect of the factor and the interactions.
184
What is a Interaction
30 25 Mileage 20 15 10 5 0 EE+
2 5 10 13
If we get a graph like the one shown above, there is an interaction between the engine and the carburetor. The engine contributes to an increase in mileage of 5 when the carburetor is bad, whereas it contributes to an increase in 13 when the carburetor is good. The carburetor contributes to an increase in mileage of 2 when the engine is 185 bad, whereas it contributes to an increase of 10 when the engine Six Sigma Central Coordination Group is good.
Before any formal data collection can start planning of experiment has to be done to ensure replication and randomization
Replication
-- Multiple execution of all or part of the experimental process with the same
factor setting. -- It is done to measure the experimental variability. By doing this we can decide whether the difference in response is due to change in factor levels ( an induced special cause) or common cause variability i.e. noise factor ( which is uncontrollable) -- to obtain the responses for each set of experimental conditions i.e.. Location & spread Properties of Replication -- It estimates experimental error This estimate becomes the unit of measurement for determining whether observed difference are statistically significant. -- It Yields more precise estimate of factor effects.
186
Randomization
Randomization -- To assign the order in which the experimental trails will be run using a random mechanism *It is not the the standard order * It is not running in an order that is convenient * Computer help or random table help is taken in randomization -- this is done to average out the effect of lurking variables over all the factors of experiment & help to validate statistical conclusions made from the experiment Lurking Variable -- A variable that has an important effect & yet is not included among the factors under consideration because * Its existence is unknown *. Its Influence is thought to be negligible * data on it are unavailable Experimental trial are randomized to protect the effect of lurking variable 187
.Fortunately Minitab helps us formulating the structure.In this volume we will be limiting ourselves to creation of factorial design of Experiments with 2 levels through minitab.Any DOE experimentation has to go through the following steps of analysis. Perform analysis Identify factors Choose factor levels Select design Randomize runs Collect data Analyze data Draw conclusions Verify results Determine solutions Record results 188 Standardization
Identify factors example
The project is to increase the durability of clip. The durability of clip is measured by number of bends a paper clip will withstand before breaking .The vendors are claiming improvement in durability due to new heat treatment process.As heat treatment procedure was identified as a important parameter from cause and effect along with clip size and vendor a DOE is planned with two vendors,two clip sizes for heat treated and non heat treated clips.
189
Creating factorial design
190
Input factors
191
Random design
Select randomize runs To create run order and experimental conditions

192
Data Sheet
The order in which experiment was run after randomizing
193
Analyze dataIs data OK

Plot the raw data in time order by factors Assess process stability over time to see the presence of manufacturing trends and systematic influences.
Do box plot to identify outliers.to focus quick improvement efforts on the outliers and reduce variation Do one way ANOVA to find out if any experimental level is significant with respect to residuals Plot the residuals Plot the residuals against time order to ensure the experimental variability has only common causes and absence of lurking variable (trends,outliers,or non-random patterns) that might influence conclusions.
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Using Minitab on Time Order Plot

Use menus: Stat / Quality Tools /Run Chart ...
Response Variable
Subgroup Size of data
Check for any Non random Patterns
If P<0.05 then reject the Null hypothesis In this case P value is grater then 0.05 for 195 Mixture Trend & oscillation & clustering
Using Minitab on Box Plot
Use menus: Stat / Graph /Box plot ...

Y Variable & X category
Display Type in the graph Click Option The Box Plot is graphical tool to look at several aspect of data Such as spread , symmetry & outliers. The left most edge of the box plot represent the first quartile (25% of points ) . The right most edge represents the third quartile (75% of points) The centre line represent the 50th percentage or median . A outlier is any points at the distance grater then 1.5times the width of the box from the first or third quartile , plotted with Asterisks (*)
196
Minitab Output
There is slight difference between Sizes
There is no outliers
Bend * Size
There is difference between the heat treatment & Non heat treatment
Box Plot of Bend

There is slight difference between the vendors
Bend * Heat
Check the highest variability Exp. Condition
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For Internal Circulation Only Bend * Vendor Six Sigma Central Coordination Group
Bend * Exp_Cond
Using Minitab for 1 Way ANOVA

Use menus: Stat /ANOVA /1 Way ANOVA ...
Response Variable Use each condition of the experimental condition column as factors
Click Ok
Hypothesis for 1 way ANOVA

The null hypothesis Ho for the test is that all means for all experimental condition are the same. The alternative hypothesis Ha is that one or more experimental
condition has different mean.
198
Minitab Output
Note -If P<0.05 reject null hypothesis and accept alternate hypothesis There is difference in mean of experimental condition.
If the Sp (pooled Std. Deviation ) is very large any factor effects may appear insignificant
199
Plot the residuals Plot the residuals against time order to ensure the experimental variability has only common causes and absence of lurking variable (trends,outliers,or non-random patterns) that might influence conclusions. Plot the residual against average fits on Minitab for each experimental condition-look for presence of trends like megaphone shape.Note:ignore the pattern indicated by symmetry of dots around 0. Plot residuals on normal probability scale-any non normal trend indicates the variation in the experiment is non random and assignable causes are present beyond ones identified for experiment.
200
Use menus: Stat /Doe /Factorial /Analyze Factorial Design ...
Using Minitab for Residual Plot
Response data
Click Graph
Click four residual Plot
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Minitab Output
Check for any non random patterns or outliers
Check for normal distribution of residuals
Check for any correlation between & residual
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Action For Residual Plot
If there are outliers , try to find an explanation & correct the data If not able to find an explanation , leave the data as it is. If there is trend in the residuals over time ,there may be lurking variable . Look for the cause & correct the situation. If there is a correlation between the residuals & fits ,understand the cause of relation . If the residual are not normally distributed ,there may be some significant factors which are not accounted . Look for that factor & include it in the experiment
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Analysis Make Inferences

The main aim of analysis is to understand which Xs and interaction affect the Y 1.Examine the factor Effect
Using Minitab for Pareto
Use menus: Stat /Doe /Factorial /Analyze Factorial Design ...
Response data
Click Graph
204
Click Pataro
Pareto chart of the effects to compare the relative magnitude and the statistical significance of both main and interaction effects in decreasing order of the absolute value of the standardized effects and draws a reference line on the chart. Any effect that extends past this reference line is significant.
205
Conform impressions with statistical Procedures
Analyze Factorial Design
The null hypothesis Ho Factor has no effect on the results. The alternative hypothesis Ha is that Factors has an effect on the result.
The sum of square for the main effects , 2-way interactions , &3-way interactions represent SSB The residual Error represent SSW. Further exploration of sum of squares is done through ANOVA(GLM)
The Equation is Bend = 15.688-0.437V+0.563S+4.063H-2.563V*S
Note -If P<0.05 reject null hypothesis and accept alternate hypothesis 206 Only Heat & vendor *Size Interaction have a significant affect on the number of Six Sigma Central Coordination Group For Internal Circulation Only bends
Analysis confirm Inferences (Practical Significance)

Practical Significance is evaluated by analyzing the sum of Square (SS) and subsequently mean square.
Using Minitab for ANOVA GLM

Use menus: Stat /ANOVA /General Linear model ...
Response Variable
Model contain the main effect & Interaction (Crossed ) for the factors
207
Minitab Output
The null hypothesis Ho Factor has no effect on the results. The alternative hypothesis Ha is that Factors has an effect on the result.
Note -If P<0.05 reject null hypothesis and accept alternate hypothesis Only Heat & vendor *Size Interaction have a significant affect on the number of bends 208
Using Minitab for factorial Plot

Use menus: Stat /Doe /Factorial /Factorial Plot ...
Select the type of plot required The center value for the plot
Select the Factor for the Plots
209
Use a main effects plot to determine which factors influence the response and to compare the relative strength of the effects If the line is horizontal (parallel to the x-axis), there is no main effect present. The response mean does not change depending on the factor level. If the line is not horizontal (parallel to the x-axis), there is a main effect present. The greater the degree of departure from being horizontal, the stronger the effect.
Use an interaction plot to determine if two factors interact in their effect on the response and to compare the relative strength of the effects. .If the lines are parallel to each other, there is no interaction present. The change in the response mean from the low to the high level of a factor does not depend on the level of a second factor. If the lines are not parallel to each other, there is an interaction present. The change in the response mean from the low to the high level of a factor depends on the level of a second factor. The greater the degree of departure from being parallel, the stronger the effect.
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SCREENING
Suppose one finds seven significant factors.With 2 replications this will require 256 experiments.Conducting so many experiments will consume lot of time .In such cases minitab allows fractional factorial.The only disadvantage with fractional factorial is that the higher order interactions are Confounded.The confounding is determined by degree of resolution and fraction applied.
211
THE TABLE SHOWS NUMBER OF TRIALS WITH SINGLE REPLICATION WITH SEVEN FACTORS 16 TRIALS CAN BE CONDUCTED WITH RESOLUTION IV 32 TRIALS CAN BE CONDUCTED WITH RESOLUTION 1V 64 TRIALS CAN BE CONDUCTED WITH RESOLUTION SEVEN 128 TRIALS FOR FULL FACTORIAL
212
STAT-DOE-CREATE FACTORIAL DESIGN-DESIGNS gives the following Screen gives the following screen with all alternatives
32 trials with seven factors corresponds to fraction as (1/4)*27=25=32

213
What is resolution?
R III IV V 1-2 1-3 1-4 2-2 2-3 CONFOUNDING
1-main effect 2-2way interaction 3-3way interaction 4-4way interaction Confounding implies that Calculated effects are due to Combinations determined by degree of resolution.
Table shows that for resolution III all main effects are confounded with Two way interaction. For resolution IV all main effects are confounded with three way interactions and all two way interaction are confounded with each other 214
Confounding effect due to fractional factorial When one is choosing a fractional factorial experiment a certain amount of Confounding is introduced with main effect for example in a fraction experiment with 7 factors involving 25 trials (A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H) two of the 5 factors will have Confounding.Two of the factors i.e. G and H will be Confounded with ABCD and ABDE respectively.
ALL THE CONFOUNDING DUE TO RESOLUTION AND FRACTIONAL FACTORIAL ARE SHOWN IN MINITAB BY ALIAS STRUCTURE AND DESIGN GENERATORS AND BEFORE PROCEEDING ONE MUST EVALUATE WHETHER KNOWN SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION WILL BE 215 LOST OR NOT. Six Sigma Central Coordination Group
Prediction Model for Standard Deviation
Step 1 Prepare the reduce matrix in standard order. Then transfer the mean & standard deviation calculated earlier by using 1 way ANOVA ( Using std. Order as factor) in this reduce matrix.
Mean & standard Deviation is achieved from Way ANOVA
216
Step 2 Use menus: Stat /Doe /Factorial / Define Custom Factorial Design ... This is done in order for Minitab to recognise the new design .
Select the factor
Select the design
Select the 2 level design 217

Select these option for std. Order , run order ,centre point & block
Now new Design recognized by Minitab
218
Step 3 Run the Factorial Analysis Using St. dev as Response Use menus: Stat /Doe /Factorial /Analyze Factorial Design ...
Select Term Menu
Include the model Having up to 3 Level of interaction
219
Rule : Look For the coefficients With magnitude that is roughly greater then half of the constants
Vendor *Heat Interaction is a significant Dispersion Effect Step 4 Built The prediction model
Model with Coefficient value plugged in St dev = 3.094+0.795*Vendor +0.972*Heat 1.503*(Vendor*Heat) 220
Step 5 Explore Prediction model Optimize centre & spread Explore Trade Off vs. goals (CTQs) Improve Setting Track The Result Step6 Determine the factors settings The six sigma solution should be trade off between target Mean & Variation
221
RESPONSE SURFACE Used to determine how a response is affected by a set of quantitative variables/ factors over some specified region. For a given number of variables response surface analysis techniques require more trials than two level fractional factorial design techniques. Hence the number of variables considered in an experiment may first need to be reduced through either technical considerations or fractional factorial experiments. Information on response surface is used to optimise the settings of a process to give a maximum or minimum response. Knowledge of the response surface analysis techniques can help in choosing settings for a process so that day to day variations which are typically found In a manufacturing environment which will have a minimum effect on Degradation of product quality.
222
223
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Variable Search
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VARIABLE SEARCH
OBJECTIVE : PINPOINTS RED X , PINK X etc.. CAPTURES THE MAGNITUDE OF ALL IMPORTANT MAIN EFFECTS AND INTERACTION EFFECTS. OPENS UP TOLERANCES OF ALL UNIMPORTANT VARIABLES TO REDUCE COST.
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THE FOUR STAGES OF COMPONENTS/VARIABLE SEARCH

STAGE 1 Ball Park 2 Elimination 3 Capping Run 4 Factorial Analysis OBJECTIVE To determine if Red X, Pink X are among the causes being considered To eliminate all unimportant causes and their associated interaction effects. To verify that the important causes are truly important and that the unimportant causes are truly unimportant. To quantity the magnitudes of the important main causes and their interaction effect.
227
Stage I )
Procedure for Variable Search
List the most important input variables or factors or causes : A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H and so on in descending order of importance of each factors ability to influence the output. The selection can be made by using prior DOE techniques like Paired comparison or Multivari etc. Assign two levels to each factor : a high (+) which is most likely to contributed to good results and a low (-) which represents a most likely deviation from the high level in day to day production. Run two experiments, one with all factors at their high levels, the other
with all factors at their low levels. Repeat these two experiments twice more so that there are three runs with all factors at high levels and three runs with all factors at low levels.
228
Pr o c e d u r e f o r V a r i a b l e Se a r c h
Apply the D : d bar > 1.25 : 1 rule where D is the difference between the median of the high readings and the median of the low readings and d bar is the average of the differences in repeatability within each set of high and low readings. Stage I is successful when all three high levels are better than all three low levels and where the above mentioned ratio is met. If these conditions are not met then look for any cancellation effect or an important factor that has been left out.
229
St a g e I I
Run a pair of tests with the low level of the most important factor, A, I.e. AL along with the high levels of all the remaining factors labeled RH and with the high level of the most important factor, A, I.e. AH, along with the low levels of all the remaining factors RL. Calculate the high side and low side control limits. The formula is Median + 2.776 ( d bar/ 1.81 ).
230
Procedure for Variable Search

I)
Possible Results :
If both pairs of tests AL RH and AHRL falls within the control limits for all high level combination and all low level combination respectively, factor A, along with all of its associated interaction effects, is unimportant and can be eliminated from further study.
II)
If there is a complete reversal, I.e. if ALRH falls within the control limits of all low level combination and AHRL falls within the control limits of all high level combination, A is a main effect Red X. the rest of the factors B,C,D etc. are all unimportant and can be eliminated.
III ) If either of both pairs of tests show results outside the low side and high side control limits respectively, but not a complete reversal, factors A along with its associated interaction effects can not be eliminated. A plus some other factor or factors must be considered.
231
Stage3
If the results are I)and III)in Stage 1 repeat steps with next factor B . I)If the result is complete reversal B is red x and no further search is required. II)If results is partial swing then a capping run with A is made at high and low levels of A and B i.e. with ALBLRH and AHBHRL if in stage1 A had shown partial swing. complete reversal indicates end of experiment and no further search is required. Partial swing indicates search is not complete and third factor is to be selected and and the steps I and ii) repeated until a reversal is Obtained with the new factor or a capping run of the new factor with the old factors which had caused partial swing in earlier stages. Normally search does not go beyond capping run with three factors.a three factor capping run. ( Generally four factor capping run is rare ). Finally draw up a factorial analysis using the factors identified to quantify the main effectsCirculationinteraction effects of the important factors. and Only For Internal
232
VARIABLE SEARCH CASE STUDY : THE PRESS BRAKE
IN A METAL STAMPING FORMING OPERATION,PARTS PRODUCED ON THE PRESS BRAKES COULD NOT BE HELD TO A + 0.005 INCHES TOLERANCE (OR PROCESS WIDTH OF 0.010 INCHES). VARIATION AS HIGH AS + 0.010 INCHES WERE BEING MEASURED A VARIABLE SEARCH EXPERIMENT WAS THEN CONDUCTED. THE OBJECTIVE WAS TO BRING THE PROCESS UNDER CONTROL, CONSISTENTLY, TO + 0.005 INCHES OR CLOSER. SIX FACTORS WERE SELECTED, IN DESCENDING ORDER OF PERCEIVED IMPORTANCE, AND THE HIGH AND LOW LEVELS FOR EACH FACTOR DETERMINED.
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V A RI A B L E SEA RCH CA SE ST U DY : T H E PRESS B RA K E

FACTORS A. PUNCH & DIE ALIGNMENT B. METAL THICKNESS C. METAL HARDNESS D. METAL BOW E. RAM STROKE F. HOLDING MATERIAL HIGH ALIGNED THICK HARD FLAT COIN FORM LEVEL LOW NOT ALIGNED THIN SOFT BOWED AIR FORM AT ANGLE
RESULTS : NUMBER BELOW ARE EXPRESSED IN DEVIATION FROM NOMINAL IN MULTIPLES OF 0.001 INCHES ( LOWER TOLERANCE ARE BETTER AND VICE VERSA ). STAGE 1 ALL HIGH LEVELS ALL LOW LEVELS INITIAL 4 47 4 61 1st REPLICATION 3 68 2nd REPLICATION D = ( 61 4 ) = 57 d = ( 1 + 21 ) / 2 = 11 SO D/d = 5.2 (STAGE 1 SUCCESSFUL) CONTROL LIMITS = MEDIAN + 2.776 d/ 1.81 = MEDIAN + 16.87 234 SO CONTROL LIMITS ( LOW LEVEL ) = 44.13 TO 77.87 Six Sigma Central Coordination Group For Internal Circulation Only SO CONTROL LIMITS (HIGH LEVEL) = -12.87 TO 28.87

STAGE - 2
TEST 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 COMBINATION AL RH AL RH BLRH BHRL CLRH CHRL DLRH DHRL ELRH EHRL FLRH FHRL RESULTS 3 72 5 47 7 72 23 30 7 50 73 18 MEDIAN 4 61 4 61 4 61 4 61 4 61 4 61 CONTROL LIMITS -12,87 TO 20.87 44.13 TO 77.87 -12,87 TO 20.87 44.13 TO 77.87 -12,87 TO 20.87 44.13 TO 77.87 -12,87 TO 20.87 44.13 TO 77.87 -12,87 TO 20.87 44.13 TO 77.87 -12,87 TO 20.87 44.13 TO 77.87 CONCLUSION A NOT IMPORTANT B NOT IMPORTANT
C NOT IMPORTANT
D IMPORTANT WITH ANOTHER FACTOR E NOT IMPORTAN
F IMPORTANT WITH ANOTHER FACTOR. 235


STAGE 3 : CAPPING RUN
TEST COMBINATION RESULTS MEDIAN CONTROL LIMITS -12,87 TO 20.87 CONCLUSION
DHFHRL
DF INTERACTION MAY BE PRESENT R UNIMPORTANT COMPLETE REVERSAL END OF TEST
DLFLRH
70
61
44.13 TO 77.87
# : DENOTES CAPPING RUN

236

STAGE 4 : FACTORIAL ANALYSIS DHIGH FHIGH 4 4 3 4 3 5 7 7 MEDIAN = 4 73 30 FLOW MEDIAN = 51.5 72
DLOW 23 18 24.5 MEDIAN = 20.5 47 61 68 70 72 47 72 50 MEDIAN = 64.5
116
55.5
85
68.5
237
M A I N EFFECT : D =
(2 0 .5 +6 4 .5 ) (4 +5 1 .5 ) 2
(8 5 -5 5 .5 ) = 1 4 .7 5 PI N K X 2
M A I N EFFECT : F =
(5 1 .5 +6 4 .5 ) (4 +2 0 .5 ) 2
(1 1 6 -2 4 .5 ) = 4 5 .7 5 RED X 2
DF I N T ERA CT I ON =
(5 1 .5 +2 0 .5 ) (4 +6 4 .5 ) 2
(7 2 -6 8 .5 ) 2
= 1 .7 5
238
DESI GN OF EX PERI M EN T S
GREEN Y : BURNING MARKS ON BALL TRACK OF STEERING NUT (407 / 207) PROBLEM HISTORY : (87 Rej. 19570 Prod.) i.e. 15% OF TOTAL REJN. FOR APR TO OCT. COST OF REJECTION : Rs 138 /- APPROX. PER PIECE. COST OF REJN. FOR BURNING MARKS : 1715 /- PER MONTH DOE TECHNIQUE USED : VARIABLE SEARCH LIKERT SCALE : TO CONVERT ATTRIBUTE DATA INTO VARIABLE DATA. ATTRIBUTE SCALE NO BURNING MARKS LIGHT BURNING MARKS MEDIUM BURNING MARKS HEAVY BURNING MARKS
VARIABLE SCALE 1 2 3 4
239
V A RI A B L E SEA RCH CA SE ST U DY : ST EERI N G N U T B U RN I N G M A RK S PROB L EM

FIXED FACTORS : QUILL R/OUT, DIAMOND ROLL FACE R/OUT, BACKLASH OF LEAD SCREW & BOX NUT, COOLENT FLOW WERE OPTIMISED
FACTORS A. WORK HEAD FEED B. WHEEL R.P.M C. DRESSING DEPTH OF CUT D. NO. OF PASSES E. GRINDING WHEEL
BEST 80 12000 0.02 26 S17 (SUPLHUR TREATED) GRADE : RA8017VF8
WORST 90 15000 0.06 18 17

GRADE:RA8017VF8
240
RESULTS : NUMBERS BELOW ARE CONVERSION OF ATTRIBUTE DATA INTO VARIABLE ( LIKERT SCALE ) STAGE I INTIAL 1st REPLICATION 2nd REPLICATION D = (3 2) = 1 ALL BEST LEVELS 2 2 2 d + (0+1) /2 = 0.5 ALL WORST LEVEL 3 3 2 So, D/d = 2.0 STAGE I SUCCESSFUL
CONTROL LIMITS = MEDIAN + 2.776 d / 1.81
= MEDIAN + 0.767
SO CONTROL LIMITS ( WORST LEVEL ) = 2.233 TO 3.767 SO CONTROL LIMITS ( BEST LEVEL ) = 1.233 TO 2.767
241

STAGE 2
TEST 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 COMBINATION AWRB ABRW BWRB BBRW CWRB CBRW DWRB DBRW EWRB EBRW RESULTS 3 1 3 1.5 1.5 3 3 1 1.5 3 MEDIAN 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 CONTROL LIMITS 1.233 TO 2.767 2.233 TO 3.767 1.233 TO 2.767 2.233 TO 3.767 1.233 TO 2.767 2.233 TO 3.767 1.233 TO 2.767 2.233 TO 3.767 1.233 TO 2.767 2.233 TO 3.767 CONCLUSION A IS IMPORTANT
B IS IMPORTANT
C IS NOT IMPORTANT D IS IMPORTANT
E IS NOT IMPORTANT 242

STAGE 4 : FACTORIAL ANALYSIS ABEST DBEST BBEST 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.00 1.50 2.00 Media =1.75 3.00 BWORST DWORST 2.00 DBEST 3.00 AWROST DWORST 1.50
1.00
2.00
3.00 2.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 Media =3

243
A -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1
Effect
B -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -0.75
D -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 2.25
Pi n k X
A XB 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 0.25
A XD 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 1.25
B XD 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 0.25
AX BXD -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -4.75
RE D X
3 1 1.5 2 2 3 3 1.75
-1.75
A:- FEED
B:- WHEEL R.P.M
C:- DRESSING DEPTH OF CUT
D NO. OF PASSES
E:- GRINDING WHEEL

244

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T A T A MOTORS LIMITED

Root cause Analysis And Problem Solving Manual

For Internal Circulation Only

CONCEPTS AND GUIDELINES

Areas under normal curve - Normal distribution table Area

For Internal Circulation Only

Six Sigma Central Coordination Group

Areas under normal curve - Normal distribution table Area

Areas under normal curve - Normal distribution table Area

For Internal Circulation Only

Six Sigma Central Coordination Group

Areas under normal curve - Normal distribution table Area

For Internal Circulation Only

Areas under normal curve - Normal distribution table Area

Six Sigma Central Coordination Group

Example : Normal Distribution

Remember : binomial has tw o parameters n and p

binomial distribution n = 8 p =0.5 0.3

binomial distribution n = 8 p =0.7 0.4

binomial distribution n = 8 p =0.9 0.6

Example : Binomial Distribution

Six Sigma Central Coordination Group

PROPERTIES OF NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

For Internal Circulation Only

Six Sigma Central Coordination Group

99.73 % area covered

Central Limit Theorem

Mean & Variation Stable over time

Six Sigma Central Coordination Group

Unstable Process(Mean inconsistent with time)

Mean unstable Variation Stable over time

Process Mean unstable

Unstable Process(Spread inconsistent with time)

Mean Stable over time Variation Unstable

Process Spread (unstable)

CAUSES OF INCONSISTENCY IN MEAN AND VARIATION

Variation & the need for Control VARIATION

Assignable / Special Causes

Inherent / Common Causes

Time to Time variation Variation in parts produced over a period of time.

Inherent process variation Process characteristic

Uncontrollable ( immediate action/ correction not possible)

Six Sigma Central Coordination Group

TOOLS FOR DETECTING ASSIGNABLE CAUSES.

The purpose of a Control Chart

Control Charts will not :

. . . but they can give clues to possible causes

Control Charts for Variables

Choice of measuring instrument :

A size of 5 is followed as a standard

No qualitative events should occur within a subgroup

Six Sigma Central Coordination Group

Center line of Xbar chart Center line of R chart

FORMULAE USED IN X AND R CHART

n A2 2 1.88 3 1.023 4 0.729 5 0.577 6 0.483 7 0.419 8 0.373 9 0.337 10 0.308

How a x bar and R chart looks

7 Control Chart Interpretation

Six Sigma Central Coordination Group

These four test hold for both xbar and R Chart

Six Sigma Central Coordination Group

Only for X bar

Control Chart Patterns and related causes Natural Pattern

Machine capability Normal variation of incoming materials Uniformity of raw parts