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Deficit Projections
(Percent of GDP)
12% 10% 8% 6%
1992-2012 Average Deficit: 2.9% 2012-2022 Average Current Policy Deficit: 4.7%
4%
2% 0% -2% -4%
Current Policy
Current Law
2012
Defense 21%
Other 6%
Debt Projections
(Percent of GDP)
400% 350%
300%
250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50%
Realistic Projections 2010: 63% 2025: 92% 2040: 147% 2080: 384%
Actual
20%
Projected
Historical Average
15%
10% 5% 0% 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012 2022 2032 2042 2052 2062 2072 2082 Social Security Health Care Other Entitlements Revenue
Consequences of Debt
Crowding Out of private sector
investment, leading to slower economic growth
One way or another, fiscal adjustments to stabilize the federal budget must occur *if we dont act in advance+ the needed fiscal adjustments will be a rapid and painful response to a looming or actual fiscal crisis.
-Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve
Debt Drivers
Short-Term Long-Term
Economic Crisis
(lost revenue and increased spending on safety net programs like Food Stamps)
Economic Response
(stimulus spending/tax breaks and financial sector rescue policies)
Population Aging
(causing Social Security and Medicare costs to rise, and revenues to fall)
What Costs Growing Interest the Debt Will Realistically Look Like
Tax Cuts
(in 2001, 2003, and 2010)
War Spending
(in Iraq and Afghanistan)
(from continued debt accumulation) (to meet the costs of funding government)
Insufficient Revenue
Increases in Debt:
Technical & Economic Changes: 27%
Tax Cuts: 27% Spending Increases: 41% Other Means of Financing: 6%
Note: Estimates from The Pew Charitable Trusts based on CBO data.
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Projected
Interest
Aging
44%
12%
10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
36% 64%
Public
Private
Source: 2008 Data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
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36%
16:1
5:1
64%
3:1
2:1
60 55
50 45 40
Life Expectancy
Interest 6%
Interest 19%
Interest 27%
Insufficient Revenue
Unpaid for Tax Cuts in 2001, 2003, and
2010 lowered revenue collection without making corresponding spending cuts or tax increases to offset the budgetary effect
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$174 $89
$77
$62
Non-Defense Discretionary 15% Health Spending 18% Social Secutity 16% Other Mandatory 12%
Special Rates for Capital Gains and Dividends State & Local Tax Deduction
Charitable Deduction Child Tax Credit
$61
$57
$49 $45
67%
81%
86%
$1.7 Trillion
$5.1 Trillion
$6.4 Trillion
67%
81%
86%
$0.4 Trillion
$3.8 Trillion
$5.2 Trillion
67%
81%
86%
-$0.8 Trillion
$2.6 Trillion
$4.0 Trillion
So even if lawmakers were to stabilize debt at 70% of the economy in 2021a level higher than the internationally recognized threshold of 60%they would have to enact at least $2.8 trillion in savings beyond the $920 billion enacted in the Budget Control Act, compared to realistic assumptions of future debt. That calls for a Go Big approach to debt reduction.
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Growth
Strong economic growth is a necessary
but not sufficient condition for debt reduction
CBO studied the economic impact of an illustrative $2.4 trillion debt reduction plan and found that real output would be between 0.6% and 1.4% higher, depending on the magnitude of the effects.
*Estimates from CBO, The Macroeconomic and Budgetary Effects of an Illustrative Policy for Reducing the Federal Budget Deficit.
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Savings
Without addressing
health care reforms or revenues, it will be very difficult to achieve significant savings
Government-Wide
Discretionary Health Care Other Mandatory Social Security Revenues Net Interest Total
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Adding Serious Entitlement Reforms and Revenues Pushes You into Go Big
Democrats will only agree to serious entitlement reforms if there are revenues Republicans will only agree to revenues in the context of comprehensive tax reform Democrats will only agree to a comprehensive tax reform that replaces the Bush tax cuts if it raises at least the $800 billion they would get if President Obama vetoes extension of upper income tax cuts Republicans will not agree to revenues anywhere near that amount without health savings that go beyond the amount proposed by the President
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Advantages of Go Big
Debt stabilized and falling as a share of
the economy later in the decade, and all the benefits associated with a declining debt burden:
Less crowding out of private sector
investment Stronger confidence in businesses and markets Greater certainty and stability Stronger economy over the long-term Lower interest payments and increased fiscal space Intergenerational equity Reduced or eliminated risk of fiscal crisis
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Note: For more information on the announcement effect, see CRFB at http://crfb.org/blogs/announcing-announcement-effect-club
An incremental approach would allow advocates for parts of the budget to argue
that they are bearing an unfair burden. A Go Big approach which achieves savings in all parts of the budget neutralizes that argument.
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$3 Trillion Plan $250 billion $300 billion $650 billion $350 billion $150 billion $850 billion $450 billion $3 trillion
$4 Trillion Plan $250 billion $400 billion $900 billion $350 billion $300 billion $1.2 trillion $600 billion $4 trillion
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Note: $4 trillion plan is a more ambitious version of the types of reforms in the $2.8 trillion plan.
Social Security
Progressive benefit changes, retirement
age increase, tax increase for high earners totaling $300 billion.
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Bottom Rates Current Rates for 2012 Scheduled Rates for 2013 Eliminate All Tax Expenditures Keep Child Tax Credit and EITC Fiscal Commissions Illustrative Tax Plan 10% 15% 8% 15%
9% 12%
15% 22%
24% 28%
26% 28%
Fiscal Commissions illustrative tax plan would reduce or eliminate most tax expenditures and use the savings to reduce tax rates and reduce the deficit.
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All of the 2001/2003/2010 tax cuts will expire at once The sequester will immediately cut defense by 10%, non-defense
discretionary by 8%, and other spending across-the-board The payroll tax holiday and extended unemployment benefits will expire The AMT will hit 30 million taxpayers instead of 4 million All the tax extenders will expire Physicians will see a 30% cut in their Medicare payments Tax increases from the Affordable Care Act will begin The country will once again hit the debt celling
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R&E tax credit Alcohol fuel tax credit Subpart F for active financing income Other extenders
$125 billion
$65 billion $10 billion $115 billion $30 billion $25 billion ~$500 billion ~2%
$1.7 trillion
$980 billion $270 billion $150 billion $455 billion $420 billion $8.1 trillion N/A
Note: Congressional Budget Office estimates and CRFB calculations. 2013-2022 estimates include interest.
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36% 64%
Savings in the Fiscal Cliff will not deal with the long-term debt
drivers growing health and retirement costs
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Go Big
A plan must stabilize and reduce the debt relative to the economy A go big plan would make bipartisan compromise more likely by
allowing for the necessary tradeoffs
Go Smart
Replace mindless, abrupt deficit reduction with thoughtful changes
that reform the tax code and cut low-priority spending
Go Long
Enact gradual reforms that address the long-term costs of growing
entitlement spending
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5%
4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Realistic Debt CBO Current Law Illustrative Plan
Note: Illustrative plan loosely based on Fiscal Commission savings. Current policy based on CRFB Realistic Baseline.
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$1,000
$500
$0
70%
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2012 2016 2021
Allows for gradual phase in Improves generational fairness Gives taxpayers businesses,
and entitlement beneficiaries time to plan
2013
4.8%
2015
5.2%
Creates announcement
effect to improve growth
2020
6.8%
2025
9.7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Elections can take policy options off the table and back candidates into
positions that make bipartisan solutions more difficult
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60+ former government officials, business leaders, and experts Editorial boards and other outside experts Countless concerned citizens
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Propose Specific Solution for Social Security, Health Programs, and the Tax Code
Offer Solutions for Temporary and Expiring Policies Encourage Congress to Come Up with a Budget Plan as Quickly as Possible Remain Open to Bipartisan Compromise
If not addressed, burgeoning deficits will eventually lead to a fiscal crisis, at which point the bond markets will force decisions upon us. If we do not act soon to reassure the markets, the risk of a crisis will increase, and the options available to avert or remedy the crisis will both narrow and become more stringent.
-Erskine Bowles and Sen. Alan Simpson, Former co-chairs of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform
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The Fix the Debt Campaign 100+ Members of the House of Representatives
45+ Senators
Hundreds of business leaders, associations, and other experts
calling for a broad, bipartisan plan to stabilize and reduce debt
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Useful Resources
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget http://crfb.org http://www.fixthedebt.org Policy Papers: Between a Mountain of Debt and a Fiscal Cliff Primary Numbers: The GOP Candidates Going Big Could Improve the Chances of Success Slideshow on Our Fiscal Challenges: Averting a Fiscal Crisis Congressional Budget Office July 16, 2011 report: The Macroeconomic and Budgetary Effects of an Illustrative Policy for Reducing the Federal Budget Deficit
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