A PRESENTATION ON DECISION MAKING & FORECASTING

PREPARED BY

SHOEB NAVLIWALA SAUHANI PATEL URAVSHI PARMAR

GUIDED BY

PROF. VAIBHVI
SUBMITTED TO R.H PATEL INSTITUTE OF MANAGMENT

CONTENT
1) INTRODUCTION AND MEANING OF DECISIONMAKING 2) TYPES OF DECISION MAKING 3) STEPS OF DECISION MAKING 4) MODELS OF DECISION MAKING 5) COMMON DIIFFICULTIES IN DECISION MAKING 6) INTRODUCTION AND MEANING OFFORECASTING 7) DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PLANNIN&FORECASTING 8) TECHNIQUES OF FORECASTING

9) Reference

INTRODUCTION AND MEANING OF DECISION MAKING

A managers life is filled with a Constant series of decision. Where to invest profits, what to do about an employee who

is always late, where should the firm s new warehouse be built. Decision making is a key part of managers activities. Decision making involves the planning, organization, direction, and control & providing dynamic leadership. Meaning :- when managers make decisions they are choosing they are deciding what to do on the basis of some conscious and deliberate logic or judgment.

TYPES OF DECISION MAKING

Programmed and non programmed decision :

Programmed decision :with some policy, rule or procedure. repetitive, routine, and easiest for managers to make. Not possible to reach different solution. non programmed decision :novel and non repetitive. Possible to reach different solution.

Major and minor decision : Major decision a long range

:-

impact like replacement of men by machinery.

High level.
Minor decision
Lower level.

:-

To store raw material , its affects only one function.

Routine and strategic decision :

Routine decision :routine decision and basic facility. like provision for air condition, better lighting , parking facility ,etc Strategic decision :Decision related to product and plan. Strategic decision are like lowering the price of product changing the product line etc. Individual decision :decision are taken where the problem is routine nature. Group decision :Taken where problem is strategic nature . Simple decision :Few problem Lower level complex decision :Many problem High level

Individual and group decision :

Simple and complex decision :

steps of decision making

Recognizing the problem

Deciding priorities among problem

Diagnosing the problem

Developing alternatives solution measuring and comparing of alternatives solution Converting the decision into effective action and follow up of solution

Models of decision making

Economic man model : developed by classical economist.
completely rational . greatest advantages. search best alternatives.

Administrative man model : limited rationality . Find best alternative. experience..

Social man model : Classical psychologists unconscious desire.

Common difficulties of decision making

Unsporting environment . Non acceptance by subordinates . Incomplete information . Ineffective communication.

Incorrect timing

INTRODUCTION AND MEANING OF FORECASTING

Forecasting is help managers improve the quality of their planning and

decision making and verity of techniques and tools have been developed.

Meaning :- forecasting is a technique of anticipating future problem

and events. It involves making a detailed analysis of the past and present to get an idea about probable event in the future. planning co ordination. effective control. decision making.

DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PLANNING AND FORECASTING

Planning commits individual to certain goals. And

forecasting does not commit individual to any goals. Planning is done with the help of forecasting and forecasting done with the help of kind of markets, price of a product, quantity of sales, costs, tax rates. Planning is done by every manager but forecasting is not done by every manager. It is undertaken by staff people.

TECHNIQUES OF FORECASTING
Methods based upon past results :

past results Like forecast of sales . based on a past experience. Methods based upon mathematical models :relationship between dependent and independent factor. selling of a car . own technical ability. Qualitative and judgment methods :subjective judgment and essential data are not available. survey method and economic forecasting.

Reference

books of principal of management written by

P N reddy & T C tripathi.

THANK YOU