Rav 3Q 2011

Performance of the Philippine Economy
Third Quarter 2011

Presented by ROMULO A. VIROLA
Secretary General
National Statistical Coordination Board

28 November 2011
Slide No. 0
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Economic Performance
(Growth rates, in percent)
Third Quarter 2010 GDP

GNI (GNP) NPI (NFIA)
Q1 to Q3 2010 2011
2011
7.3 6.9 5.7
3.2 1.6
8.2 9.2
3.6 2.1
-3.4
12.1
-2.4
Slide No. 1
Seasonal Adjustment
2010 Q4 GDP
GNI (GNP)
Q1
1.9
0.5
2011 Q2
0.5
0.1
Q3
0.3
0.4
0.4 0.8
Slide No. 2
Confidence Intervals for the True Growth Rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Slide No. 3
Per Capita GDP, GNI, HFCE

Third Quarter
Q1 to Q3
2010 GDP GNI (GNP)

HFCE (PCE)
2011
2010
2011
5.3 4.9 0.5
1.2 -0.3 5.1
6.2 7.1 0.8
1.7 0.2 4.0
Slide No. 4
Major Industries
Third Quarter 2010 AHFF Industry Services

Slide No. 5
Q1 to Q3 2010 2011
2011
-2.0 9.8
1.8 -0.2
-1.9 13.6
4.7 1.4
7.8
5.3
7.4
4.7
Seasonal Adjustment
Major Industries (Growth rates, in percent)
2010 Q4 AHFF Industry Services

Slide No. 6
2011 Q1
1.7 3.0
Q2
2.8 -4.2 2.8
Q3
-3.9 0.3
1.8 1.4
-0.4
1.4
1.2
Contributions to GDP Growth

Q3 2011 AHFF Industry Services GDP
Slide No. 7
0.2 -0.1 3.0 3.2

Agriculture, Hunting, Fishery & Forestry

Third Quarter 2010 2011
AHFF Palay Corn Coconut / copra Sugarcane Banana Mango Pineapple Coffee Cassava Rubber Other crops Livestock Poultry Agri. Activities Forestry Fishing
Q1 to Q3 2010 2011
-1.9 -13.3 -13.9 1.0 -10.4 2.0 7.7 1.2 -0.3 7.1 2.5 4.6 1.2 7.7 2.8 -27.5 -0.2 4.7 16.0 15.9 -3.2 76.5 1.0 -6.6 2.9 -5.4 5.1 5.7 -2.4 1.4 4.0 4.6 34.2 -3.8
Slide No. 8
-2.0 -23.8 -0.4 0.2 -81.3 3.1 10.8 1.2 -0.9 6.2 3.5 4.3 0.1 11.3 8.0 -48.2 2.8
1.8 19.7 -6.0 -0.6 208.4 1.0 -8.4 4.1 -2.2 5.6 4.4 -7.1 2.6 4.8 1.7 14.0 -6.1
Agriculture, Hunting, Fishery & Forestry

(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Q3 2011
AHFF Palay Corn Coconut incl. Copra Sugarcane Banana Mango Pineapple Coffee Cassava Rubber Other crops Livestock Poultry Agri. Activities Forestry
Slide No. 9
1.77 2.76 -0.51 -0.03 0.10 0.05 -0.19 0.08 -0.01 0.06 0.02 -0.43 0.38 0.51 0.14 0.06 -1.22
Fishing
Industry
Third Quarter
Q1 to Q3 2010 2011
2010 Industry
2011
9.8 -0.2 13.6 1.4 Mining & Quarrying 6.8 1.1 12.9 7.1 Manufacturing 8.4 3.1 13.1 5.5 Construction 15.6 -12.2 17.6 -12.8 Elec. Gas & Water Supply 10.1 -1.0 10.1 -1.9
Slide No. 10
Industry
Q3 2011
Industry Mining & Quarrying Manufacturing Construction
Elec. Gas & Water Supply
Slide No. 11
-0.2 4.33 0.0 1.00 2.1 2.00 -2.1 3.00 -0.1
Manufacturing
Third Quarter 2011

TOP CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH OF MFG. 1.61 Chemical & Chemical Prod. 1.60 Furniture and Fixtures Radio, TV and Comm. Equip. & Apparatus 1.56 Miscellaneous Manufactures 1.02 Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery 0.91 LEAST CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH Footwear & Leather & Leather Products 0.00 Non-Metallic Mineral Products 0.09
Slide No. 12
Manufacturing
Third Quarter 2011

NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH OF MFG. -4.67 Food Manufactures -0.35 Textile Manufactures -0.27 Basic Metal Industries Electrical Machinery & Apparatus -0.25 Transport Equipment -0.07
Slide No. 13
Services
Third Quarter
Q1 to Q3 2010 2011
2010 Services
2011
7.8 Transport., Stor., & Comm. 3.0 Trade 11.0 Financial Intermediation 13.1 Real Estate, Renting & Bus. Actvts. 6.6 Pub Administration 6.5 4.4 Other Services
5.3 4.9 3.8 3.6 7.6 5.4 7.0
7.4 0.9 9.8 8.9 6.9 7.9 8.4
4.7 4.4 2.1 7.3 6.9 2.2 6.1
Slide No. 14
Services
Services Transport.,Stor., & Comm. Trade Financial Intermediation

Real Estate, Renting & Bus. Actvts.
Pub. Administration Other Services

Slide No. 15
Q3 2011 5.39.1 2.95 0.6 1.74 1.2 1.61 0.4 1.57 1.5 0.68 0.4 0.55 1.2
Indicators
Supporting Growth for 3rd Quarter 2011
INDICATOR Employment - Agriculture - Mining and Quarrying - Manufacturing - Transportation, Comm & Storage - Trade - Community, Social & Personal Services Mean Hours Worked - Community, Social & Personal Services GROWTH RATE Up by 4.5 % Up by 1.3 % Up by 15.9 % Up by 4.3 % Up by 4.1 % Up by 8.5 % Up by 19.5 % Up by 17.5 %
Slide No. 16
Indicators
INDICATOR Manufacturing - Value of Production Index - Volume of Production Index - Capacity Utilization - Value of Net Sales Index - Volume Of Net Sales Index - Producers Price Index GROWTH RATE Up by 3.2 Up by 2.5 Up by 0.1 Up by 14.2 Up by 13.4 Up by 0.8 % % % % % %
Slide No. 17
Indicators
INDICATOR Water Gross Billed Volume Water Gross Sales Transportation , Communication and Storage Ridership ( Volume of - Rail Passengers) - Rail Ridership (Gross Revenue) - Subscriber base (cellular)-stock - Subscriber base (fixed line) - stock - Broadband Subscriber- stock GROWTH RATE Up by 4.7 % Up by 3.4 %
Up by 2.1 % Up by 2.4 % Up by 9.5 % Up by 4.2 % Up by 24.9 %
Slide No. 18
Indicators
INDICATOR Revenue/Sales from Selected Key Industry Players - Tansportation (Water) - Communications - Real Estate - Selected Fast Food Chains Imports Of capital Goods (FOB value in million US$) (Jul-Aug) Tourist/Visitor Arrival CPI Inflation for Q3 2011 Peso Appreciation Q3 2011
Slide No. 19
GROWTH RATE
Up by 9.0 % Up by 2.9 % Up by 15.9 % Up by 17.6 % Up by 3.7 % Up by 12.0 % Up by 4.5 % Up by 5.9 %

Expenditure
Third Quarter 2010 2011 2.4 7.1 -6.5 9.4 17.1 17.6 -0.3 -1.1 26.6 5.5 21.0 27.6 -10.6 9.9 0.2 9.4 -14.8 -2.5 0.6 0.2 Q1 to Q3 2010 2011 2.8 5.9 7.1 -1.7 18.6 27.0 0.2 4.3 27.4 2.5 23.5 19.4 -10.0 10.4 0.4 7.6 -3.9 -3.1 5.5 -3.7 HFCE GFCE Construction Durable Equip. BSOD
Intellectual Prop. Prod.
Exports of Goods Exports of Services Imports of Goods Imports of Services

Slide No. 20
Expenditure
2011 HFCE GFCE Construction Durable Equip. BSOD
Changes in Inventories
Q3 4.7 0.9 -0.9 1.0 0.0 4.2 0.1 -8.2 3.2
Intellectual Prop. Prod
Net Exports GDP

Slide No. 21
Construction
Third Quarter Q1 to Q3
2010 Construction Public Private
2011
2010
2011
17.1 -10.6 18.6 -10.0 -23.4 -21.3 8.8 -46.4 35.7 -7.8 23.9 7.2
Slide No. 22
Top 5 Exports of Goods

(In percent)
Contributors to Grow th
Automotive Electronics
Articles of Apparel & Clothing Accessories
Q3 2011
Growth Rates
C ont r i but i ons t o Gr owt h
276.4
1.70 0.44 0.25
15.8 707.5 63.9

17.6
Sugar
Cathodes & Sections of Cathodes, of Refined Copper
0.21
0.17
Consumer Electronics
Slide No. 23
Bottom 5 Exports of Goods

(In percent)
Least Contributors to Grow th

Components/Devices (Semiconductors)
Q3 2010
Growth Rates
-30.3
-20.28 -0.85 -0.41
Communication/Radar
Electronic Data Processing
Other Products Manufactured from Materials on Consignment Basis
-48.0 -3.9 -12.9

-22.2
-0.26
-0.23
Coconut Oil
Slide No. 24
Top 5 Imports of Goods

(In percent)
Q3 2011
Growth Rates
C o n t r ib u t io n s t o G r ow t h
Contributors to Grow th
Transport Equipment Telecommunication Electronic Data Processing
Machinery and Mechanical Appliances
24.8
1.15 1.08
106.5
13.5 19.3 29.3
0.99
0.92 0.72
Electrical Machinery
Slide No. 25
Bottom 4 Imports of Goods

(In percent)
Least Contributors to Grow th

Cereals
Q3 2010
Growth Rates
-26.9
-1.00 -0.24 -0.22 -0.03
Feedstuff
Metalliferous Ores & Metal Scraps
-26.2
-44.9 -3.4
Paper Products
Slide No. 26
Net Primary Income

Third Quarter Q1 to Q3
2010
2011
2010
2011
INFLOW
Compensation Property Income Total
4.3 -22.6 3.8
-3.7 9.5 -3.6
11.0 -24.1 10.3
-3.1 11.8 -2.9
OUTFLOW
Compensation
0.0 Property Expense -13.2 Total -13.2 NET PRIMARY INCOME 5.7
Slide No. 27
0.0 -5.6 -5.6 -3.4
0.0 -5.7 -5.7 12.1
0.0 -8.5 -8.5 -2.4
OFW Details
Third Quarter 2010 2011 Compensation in Dollars (in billion) in Peso (in billion) 17.7 800.1 18.6 793.7
Growth Rate 5.0 (0.8)
Slide No. 28
Effects of Typhoon Pedring
Growth Rates AHFF GDP Actual If Typhoon Pedring had not happened 1.8 5.2 3.2 3.5
Slide No. 29
GDP Scenarios for Q3 2011

Growth Rates Construction GDP Actual Scenario -12.2 0.0 3.2 3.8
33 B Php 28.9 B Php
Slide No. 30
GDP Scenarios for Q4 2011
Growth Rates GDP 2010 2011 2011 Target Q1 to Q3 Q4 Q1 to Q3 Lower Upper 4.5 5.5 8.2 8.2 6.1 6.1 3.6 3.6
Q4
6.9 10.6
Slide No. 31
Good News for the Next Quarter
Slide No. 32
Second Quarter 2011 Revisions

(Growth Rates as of August 2011 and as of November 2011)
PRODUCTION
AHFF AGRICULTURE & FORESTRY FISHING INDUSTRY MINING & QUARRYING MANUFACTURING CONSTRUCTION ELEC., GAS & WATER SUPPLY SERVICES TRANS., STORAGE & COMM TRADE FIN. INTERMEDIATION RERBA PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION OTHER SERVICES GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT NPI GROSS NATIONAL INCOME
Slide No. 33
Preliminary
A s o f A ug 201 1
Revised
A s o f No v 201 1
Contribution
to Revisio n
7.1 10.2 -2.6 -0.6 3.0 4.8 -16.1 -2.0 5.0 5.3 1.2 9.9 5.7 7.3 5.8 3.4 -2.8 1.9
8.2 11.5 -2.4 -2.3 3.0 4.7 -23.3 -3.4 5.4 4.2 1.9 11.6 6.9 5.4 5.9 3.1 -3.4 1.5
0.11 0.11 0.00 -0.59 0.00 -0.02 -0.53 -0.05 0.19 -0.08 0.11 0.11 0.13 -0.10 0.02 -0.29 -0.16 -0.38
Announcements
1. Change in the Schedule of Release of the National Accounts Linked Series (2000=100), 1946-2007
The national accounts linked series (2000=100), 1946-2007, will be released on 21 December 2011, instead of October 2011. For inquiries, please contact, Director Raymundo J. Talento of the NSCB Economic Statistics Office at telephone numbered: 895-2481 or email address: rj.talento@nscb.gov.ph
Slide No. 34
Announcements
2. Approved FDI up by 32.0 percent in Q3 2011
Total foreign direct investments (FDI) approved in the third quarter of 2011 by the major investment promotion agencies amounted to PhP 25.0 billion, 32.0 percent higher than the PhP 19.0 billion committed in the same period last year. Top prospective investing countries include Japan, Korea, and the United States of America (USA). Top industry recipients of FDI commitments are manufacturing, electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning and real estate activities. Approved investments of foreign and Filipino nationals tripled to PhP 192.0 billion, majority or 87.0 percent of which would be supplied by ventures from Filipino investors who have continually dominated investments approved during the first three quarter9s of 2011. Foreign and Filipino ventures approved by the four major IPAs in Q3 2011 are expected to create 40,660 jobs, increasing by 51.4 percent from last year's projected employment of 26,857 jobs. Out of these anticipated jobs, 25,643 new jobs or 63.1 percent would come from projects with foreign interest.
Slide No. 35
Announcements
3. NSCB releases the 2009 Poverty Statistics for Basic Sectors
The NSCB will release the 2009 Poverty Statistics for the Basic Sectors on 7 December 2011. This will provide poverty statistics for the following: Women; Youth; Children; Senior citizens; Individuals residing in urban areas; Workers in the formal sector and migrant workers; Farmers-peasant; and Artisanal fisherfolk. For inquiries, please contact Ms. Jessamyn O. Encarnacion at telephone numbered 896-7981, and email address jo.encarnacion@nscb.gov.ph
Slide No. 36
Announcements
4. Consultative Workshop on the Formulation of the PSDP 2011-2017
A Consultative Workshop on the Formulation of the Philippine Statistical Development Program (PSDP) 2011-2017 on Philippine Statistical System (PSS)-Wide Concerns will be held on 12 December 2011, 9:00 a.m. at A. Venue Suites, Makati Avenue, Makati City. The workshop will present the draft PSDP chapters highlighting the issues/challenges, and proposed statistical programs and activities for the medium term. The objective of the workshop is to solicit comments/suggestions and additional inputs from resources persons, data users and other stakeholders towards the improvement of the PSS. The PSDP Secretariat will issue invitations for the said workshop. For inquiries, please contact the PSDP Secretariat at telefax numbered 895-2436 and 890-9404 or email addresses mgb.tejada@nscb.gov.ph and ja.monteza@nscb.gov.ph.
Slide No. 37
Announcements
5. NSCB Opens Statistical Information Center in Pangasinan
The NSCB in cooperation with the Provincial Government of Pangasinan, launched the satellite National Statistical Information Center (NSIC) in Pangasinan on 24 October 2011. NSIC Pangasinan is located at the 2nd Flr., Malong Bldg., Provincial Capitol Compound, Lingayen, Pangasinan. It is the sixth NSIC satellite in the Philippines , and the first NSIC in Region 1.
Aside from the provincial NSICs, there are ten NSICs in the country, one in Metro Manila, and nine in regional centers. The NSIC is a onestop shop of statistics to facilitate the search for and use of statistical information be researchers, planners and decision makers.
Slide No. 38
Announcements
6. NSCB Regional Divisions Release 2011 RSET
The National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB), through its Regional Divisions, announces the release of the 2011 Edition of the Regional Social and Economic Trends (RSET). The RSET features annual time series data that are useful for planning and decision-making and for setting policies towards effective governance and improved service delivery at the local level. It also contains data that are disaggregated in different dimensions and includes a glossary of terms of official concepts and definitions for statistical purposes as approved by the NSCB Executive Board. The publication is being released by the NSCB as part of its continuing commitment to disseminate relevant local level data generated by the Philippine Statistical System.
Slide No. 39
Announcements
7. Regional Statistical Coordination Committee, Region 6 Awards Achievers in Statistics in Western Visayas
The year-long search for Achievers in Statistics in Western Visayas culminated in recognizing the works of two Professors of statistics during the 22nd NSM Closing and Awarding Ceremonies on 27 October 2011 held at the Sarabia Manor Hotel, Iloilo City. Dr. Cherry T. Nepomuceno, Professor of Statistics & Director of Learning Assessment of the West Visayas State University (WVSU) garnered the award for the Pure Statistics category while Prof. Vicente T. Balinas, Professor of Statistics & Director of Barangay Integrated Development Approach for Nutrition Improvement of the Rural Poor (BIDANI) of the University of the Philippines in the Visayas, Miag-ao, Iloilo earned the award for the Applied Statistics category. The search was conceptualized to give recognition to statisticians whose dedication and long-standing commitment have contributed significantly to the promotion of statistics and has made a dent in the lives of the people in Western Visayas and society as a whole. Slide No. 40
visit: www. nscb.gov.ph
Thank you very much.
Slide No. 41
GDP Growth Rates
Slide No. 42
Construction
Source: DBM
Slide No. 43

Rav 3Q 2011

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Performance of the Philippine Economy

Third Quarter 2011

National Statistical Coordination Board

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Third Quarter 2010 GDP

7.3 6.9 5.7

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Per Capita GDP, GNI, HFCE

2010 GDP GNI (GNP)

5.3 4.9 0.5

1.2 -0.3 5.1

6.2 7.1 0.8

1.7 0.2 4.0

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Third Quarter 2010 AHFF Industry Services

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

2010 Q4 AHFF Industry Services

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Contributions to GDP Growth

0.2 -0.1 3.0 3.2

Agriculture, Hunting, Fishery & Forestry

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Agriculture, Hunting, Fishery & Forestry

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

-0.2 4.33 0.0 1.00 2.1 2.00 -2.1 3.00 -0.1

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Third Quarter 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Third Quarter 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

5.3 4.9 3.8 3.6 7.6 5.4 7.0

7.4 0.9 9.8 8.9 6.9 7.9 8.4

4.7 4.4 2.1 7.3 6.9 2.2 6.1

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Services Transport.,Stor., & Comm. Trade Financial Intermediation

Pub. Administration Other Services

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Up by 2.1 % Up by 2.4 % Up by 9.5 % Up by 4.2 % Up by 24.9 %

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Up by 9.0 % Up by 2.9 % Up by 15.9 % Up by 17.6 % Up by 3.7 % Up by 12.0 % Up by 4.5 % Up by 5.9 %

Exports of Goods Exports of Services Imports of Goods Imports of Services

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Q3 4.7 0.9 -0.9 1.0 0.0 4.2 0.1 -8.2 3.2

Intellectual Prop. Prod

Net Exports GDP

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

2010 Construction Public Private

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Top 5 Exports of Goods

C ont r i but i ons t o Gr owt h

1.70 0.44 0.25

15.8 707.5 63.9

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Bottom 5 Exports of Goods

Least Contributors to Grow th

C ont r i but i ons t o Gr owt h

-20.28 -0.85 -0.41

-48.0 -3.9 -12.9