Professional Documents
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Exhibit 19.1 Cross-Border Mergers & Acquisitions: Developed Countries (billions of US dollars)
European Union United States Japan Other
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
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Exhibit 19.2 Cross-Border Mergers & Acquisitions: Developing Countries (billions of US dollars)
Africa Asia Latin America West Asia Eastern Europe
West Asia, Eastern Europe and Africa have largely been bypassed in the international rush to acquire.
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Price
EPS
P E
Management, directly controls through its efforts the earnings per share of the firm.
Management only indirectly influences the markets opinion of the companys earnings as reflected in the P/E.
So building value means growing the firm to grow earnings. The largest growth potential is global.
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Strategic responses by firms to defend and enhance their competitive positions in a changing environment.
time
Source: UNCTAD, World Development Report 2000: Cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions and Development, figure V.1., p. 154.
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Stage II
Completion of the ownership change transaction (the tender)
Stage III
Management of the post-acquisition transition; integration of business and culture
Stage II Requires gaining the approval of the target company (target company management support), regulatory approval and the appropriate compensation settlement for target shareholders.
Stage III This critical process requires the realization of the motivations for the transaction itself and can be extremely difficult for a variety of reasons.
Copyright 2004 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.
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Cross-Border Valuation
Illustrative case: The potential acquisition of Tsingtao brewery Company, Ltd., China
In January 2001, Anheuser Busch (AB) was considering acquiring a larger minority interest in Tsingtao Brewery Company Ltd., China AB had originally acquired a 5% equity interest in 1993 when Tsingtao had first been partly privatized Since AB had already identified the target (Phase I), it would only need to value the targets shares (Phase II) and to assess its prospects for post acquisition influence on Tsingtaos operations
Copyright 2004 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.
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Cross-Border Valuation
In 1999, negotiations had broken down between AB and Tsingtao because Tsingtao would not offer AB a voice in its operations. However, by 2001, Tsingtao needed an equity infusion to grow its business. Key questions for AB were:
The valuation of Tsingtao shares in an illiquid Chinese market The percentage of Tsingtaos total equity to be purchased The terms of the transaction The prospects for AB to contribute management skills to Tsingtao The degree of future compatibility between the two corporate cultures The potential for future rationalization of operations
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Cross-Border Valuation
As a fundamental metric in the determination of value, free cash flow (FCF) is a critical input in the valuation of any enterprise.
FCF = NOPAT + D&A in NWC CAPEX
Where:
NOPAT = net operating profit after tax D&A = depreciation and amortization NWC = net working capital CAPEX = capital expenditures
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Cross-Border Valuation
Analyzing Tsingtaos FCF for 2000 shows a healthy operating cash flow (OCF) but a negative FCF due to enormous capital expenditures. For valuation purposes, this (and previous years) detailed financial data is utilized in forecasting expected future free cash flows (in this example in local currency).
These free cash flows are valued using a risk-adjusted discount rate; in this methodology the Tsingtao (local currency) WACC is used.
In addition, the terminal value of the firm, beyond the FCF projection period, is also added to the value of the FCF to determine the entity value. Equity value is determined by subtracting the PV of debt capital.
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Cross-Border Valuation
In addition to the DCF exercise, a multiples analysis is performed by analyzing (in this case):
Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E) - an indication of what the market is willing to pay for a currency unit of earnings Market/Book Ratio (M/B) - provides some measure of the markets assessment of the employed capital per share versus what the capital cost Other multiples including (in this case) price/sales or entity/enterprise value to EBTIDA (business earnings)
Copyright 2004 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.
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