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Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)

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AIR DISPERSION
MODELING
Dr.Badar Ghauri
By

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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AIR DISPERSION MODELING
Mathematical calculations for predicting the dispersion
behavior of air pollutants emitted into the atmosphere
Air dispersion models are used to estimate the
downwind concentration of pollutants emitted by
various pollution sources, from industrial and vehicular
sources.
Dispersion models are typically used to demonstrate
compliance regulatory standards.
Decision makers can compare exposures to some
benchmark (state regulatory thresholds or a level with
a known health effect.)

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Purpose of Air Quality Modeling
To quantify ambient concentrations of
pollutants or pollutant precursors
To determine optimum locations for siting
pollution monitors
To determine source contributions to
concentration estimates
To develop emission limits for sources

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Inadequacy of Ambient Measurements
Ambient air measurement through site survey and
sampling cannot be made at all points.
There are chances, during measurement, to miss location
of maximum concentrations.
Also, measurement technique cannot always be used to
fully diagnose past episodes
This facility has been recently introduced in Pakistan and
it is highly demanding for air quality assessment

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Assumptions for Model Development
Note: These boundary conditions are not suitable for most practical
dispersion models for the boundary layer.
Steady-State
Conditions
Mass
Conservation
Boundary
Conditions
Constant
emission rate
No deposition No lower
bounding surface
(earths surface)
Constant wind
speed and
direction
No chemical
transformation
No upper
bounding surface
( elevated
inversion)
No radioactive
decay

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Factors in Modeling
( )( ) ) Dispersion ( Dilution Rate Emission ion Concentrat =
| |
2
length
1
time
length
1
time
mass
volume
mass
|
.
|

\
|
|
|
|
|
.
|

\
|
|
.
|

\
|
=

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Wind Dilution
Emission Rate:
1 particle/s
Wind Speed:
1 m/s
Emission Rate:
1 particle/s
Wind Speed:
2 m/s

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Modeling Continuous Emission Source
) , , (
1
) , , ( z y x D
u
Q z y x C
|
.
|

\
|
=
0 ) , , ( > z y x D
( )( )( ) Dispersion Dilution Rate Emission ion Concentrat =
1 ) , , ( =
} }


dydz z y x D
) , , (
1
) , , ( z y x D
u
Q z y x C
|
.
|

\
|
=

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Plume Dispersion
y
z
x
Continuous
point source
x-axis aligned with
wind direction
x-dispersion neglected
for continuous source

y- and z-dispersion not
necessarily equal

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Dispersion View
H
h
s
h
h
h
s
H
Y
Z
X
Virtual Point Source
o
Z
o
Y

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Gaussian Function
(Standard Distribution)
(Bell-Shaped Curve)
(Normal Distribution)

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Gaussian Distribution Function
2
2
1
2
1
|
.
|

\
|

=
o

o t
|
x
e

1.0o 1.0o
2.15o 2.15o
0.606
0.100
0.606
0.100
1.000
|

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Dispersion Density Functions
(
(

=
2
2
2
exp
2
1
) , (
y
y
hor
y
y x D
o
o t
(

=
2
2
2
exp
2
1
) , (
z
z
ver
z
z x D
o
o t
Where
oy and oz are not necessarily equal.
oy is horizontal standard deviation of emission distribution in meters
oz is vertical standard deviation of emission distribution in meters

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Dispersion
) , , (
1
) , , ( z y x D
u
Q z y x C
|
.
|

\
|
=
( )( )( ) Dispersion Dilution Rate Emission ion Concentrat =
) , , (
1
) , , ( z y x D
u
Q z y x C
|
.
|

\
|
=

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Basic Dispersion Equation
(
(

|
|
.
|

\
|
+ =
2
2
2
2
2
1
exp
2
) , , (
z y
z y
z y
u
Q
z y x C
o o
o o t
|
|
.
|

\
|

|
|
.
|

\
|

|
.
|

\
|
=
2
2
2
2
2
exp
2
1
2
exp
2
1 1
) , , (
z
z
y
y
z y
u
Q z y x C
o
o t
o
o t
or

C is concentration of emission in grams / m
3
at any receptor located at:
x meters down wind from the emission source point.
y is meters cross wind from the emission plume center line.
z meters above ground level.
Q is source pollutant emission rate, grams / second.
u is horizontal wind velocity along the plume center line, m / sec.
Where:

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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y
z
x
Continuous
elevated
point source
h
Elevated Source

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Dispersion Equation Including Source
Height, h
( )
(
(

|
|
.
|

\
|

+ =
2
2
2
2
2
1
exp
2
) ; , , (
z y
z y
h z y
u
Q
h z y x C
o o
o o t

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Reflection from Ground Surface
Surface
h
-h

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Dispersion Equation Accounting for a
Reflecting Lower Barrier
( )
(
(

|
|
.
|

\
|

+ =
2
2
2
2
2
1
exp
2
) ; , , (
z y
z y
h z y
u
Q
h z y x C
o o
o o t
( )
(
(

|
|
.
|

\
|
+
+ +
2
2
2
2
2
1
exp
2
z y
z y
h z y
u
Q
o o
o o t
(Actual
Source)
(Image
Source)
( ) ( )

+
+
(

(
(

=
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
exp
2
exp
2
exp
2
) ; , , (
z z y
z y
h z h z y
u
Q
h z y x C
o o o
o o t
or

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Dispersion Equation Different Forms
General Equation Plume with Reflection for Stack Height H
( ) ( )
(
(

)
`

|
|
.
|

\
| +
+
|
|
.
|

\
|
-
|
|
.
|

\
|
- =
2
2
2
2
2
2
2 2 2 2
z z y z y
H z H z y
u
Q
H z y x C
o o o o o t
exp exp exp ) ; , , (
Ground Level Concentration Stack at Height H
(
(

|
|
.
|

\
|
-
|
|
.
|

\
|
- =
2
2
2
2
2 2
0
z y z y
H y
u
Q
H y x C
o o o o t
exp exp ) ; , , (
Ground Level Center Line Concentration Stack at Height H
(

|
|
.
|

\
|
- =
2
2
2
0 0
z z y
H
u
Q
H x C
o o o t
exp ) ; , , (
Ground Level Center Line Ground Point Source
z y
u
Q
x C
o o t
= ) ; , , ( 0 0 0

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
Cross-wind Dispersion, o
y
A
B
C
D
E
F
1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
10 100
Distance Downwind, km
o
y
,

m
e
t
e
r
s

Pasquill-Gifford
Sigmas
Rural
0.1
A-B
McElroy-Pooler
Sigmas
Urban
C
D
E-F

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
Vertical Dispersion, o
z
1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
10 100
Distance Downwind, km
o
z
,

m
e
t
e
r
s

A
B
C
D
E
F
Pasquill-Gifford
Sigmas
Rural
McElroy-Pooler
Sigmas
Urban
A-B
C
D
E-F

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Effective Stack Height
h
h
s

'
s
h
Ah
Buoyant or
momentum
stage
h h h h h h
s dw s
A + = A + A =
'

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Calculation of Effective Stack Height
Note that H = h
s
+ Ah, where Ah is the plume rise.
Plume rise is dependant on stack characteristics,
Meteorology, and physico-chemical nature of effluent.
* Carson-Moses Equation:
( )
s
h
s
s
u
Q
u
d V
h
2
1
62 . 2 029 . 0 + = A
* Holland Formula:
(

+ - = A
d V
Q
u
d V
h
s
h
s
s
0096 0 5 1 . .
* Concawe Formula:
694 0
444 0
71 4
.
.
.
s
h
u
Q
h = A
Where
( )
a s p h
T T C m Q =
-
Q
h
is Energy (Cal/sec) Output
from Stack
Vs Stack Exit Velocity

s
is ambient velocity or wind
speed at source
d is stack diameter
Cp Specific heat for air

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Wake Region
Building Downwash
Building
Cavity
Undisturbed Flow
H
g
Height To Undisturbed Flow
OR
Height Of Wake Region
Downwash
Effects

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
H
c

mass fraction of the plume below H
c

Terrain Effect

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Levels of Model Sophistication
Recognized by the Modeling Guidelines
Screening
Relatively simple estimation techniques that provide
conservative estimates of air-quality impact. Some examples
of screening models are CAL3QHC, CAL3QHCR, COMPLEX1,
CTSCREEN, LONGZ, RTDM3.2, SCREEN3, SHORTZ, TSCREEN,
VALLEY and VISCREEN
Refined
Analytical techniques that provide more detailed treatment of
physical and chemical atmospheric processes, require more
detailed and precise input data, and provide more specialized
concentration estimates. Some examples of refined
dispersion models are BLP, CALINE3, CDM2, CTDMPLUS, ISC,
ISC-PRIME, OCD, RAM and UAM-IV.

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Simplistic Air Dispersion Model
Limited Capabilities Compared to Refined
Models
Less Accurate Than Refined Models
Easier to Set Up and Run
Gives Conservative Results (i.e.,
overpredicts compared to refined models)
What is a Screening Model?

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Refined Dispersion Models
ISCST3
AERMOD
CALPUFF


Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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ISCST3 Modeling System
Industrial Source Complex Model
Modeling of Plume Dispersion is Crude
Only 6 possible states (Stability Classes)
No variation in meteorological variables with height
No use of observed turbulence data
No information about surface characteristics
Substantial over prediction in complex terrain
Crude building downwash algorithm
33

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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AERMOD Modeling System

AERMOD is American Meteorological Society/
Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory
Model

Steady-state plume model that incorporates
air dispersion based on planetary boundary
layer turbulence structure and scaling
concepts, including treatment of both surface
and elevated sources, and both simple and
complex terrain.

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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CALPUFF Modeling System

A non-steady-state puff dispersion model
that simulates the effects of time- and
space-varying meteorological conditions
on pollution transport, transformation,
and removal. CALPUFF can be applied for
long range transport and for complex
terrain.

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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AERMOD
3 COMPONENTS
AERMET The Meteorological Preprocessor
AERMAP The Terrain Data Preprocessor
AERMOD The Dispersion Model

2 SUPPORT TOOLS
AERSURFACE Processes Surface Characteristics Data
AERSCREEN Provides a Screening Tool
36

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Comparison of ISC & AERMOD
37
Feature ISCST3 AERMOD Comments
Types of Sources Point, Area, Volume Point, Area, Volume Models are Comparable
Plume Rise Uses Briggs equations with
Stack-top wind speed and
vertical temp gradient
In stable use Briggs
In convective uses random
convective velocities
AERMOD superior in
accounting for convective
updrafts and downdrafts
Met Data Input One level of data accepted An arbitrarily large number
of data levels can be
accommodated
AERMOD can adapt multiple
levels of data to various
stack and plume heights
Profiling Met Data Only wind speed is profiled Creates profiles for wind,
temperature and turbulence
More accurate portrayal of
actual conditions
Plume Dispersion Gaussian treatment in
horizontal and vertical
Same for stable only; non-
Gaussian probability density
in vertical for unstable
conditions
More accurate portrayal of
actual conditions
Urban Treatment Urban option either on or
off
Population is specified so
treatment can consider a
variety of urban conditions;
sources can individually be
modeled urban or rural
More options to depicts
urban characteristics

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Data Requirement for Modeling
Source Data
Background Concentrations
Meteorological Data
Terrain Information
Buildings Dimensions
Receptor Location

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Source Input Data (Typical)
Locations
Physical dimensions
Stack heights and diameters
Building dimensions
Source Type
Source shapes
Emission properties
Emission rates
Exit temperatures
Exit velocities

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Source Types
Emission
Duration
Instantaneous
Continuous
Source Geometry
Point Line Area Volume


Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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ISCST3 Met. Data File
The ISCST3 meteorological data files can be
Unformatted sequential files of meteorological data
generated by the PCRAMMET and the MPRM preprocessors
Or formatted ASCII files that contain sequential hourly
records of meteorological variables, and provide hourly
stability class, wind direction, wind speed, temperature, and
mixing height

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Stability Class
We use the Pasquill Index, which prescribes one of a series of classes, which may
be named by a single letter or a descriptive phrase:
LETTER PHRASE
A Very unstable
B Moderately unstable
C Slightly unstable
D Neutral
E Slightly stable
F Moderately stable
G Very stable

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Stability Classes
Pasqill stability categories

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Stability
Class
Amount of wind swing
over 2 hours
Vertical diffusion
produced
Lateral diffusion
produced
A Over 135
o
Very large Very large
B 105
o
135
o
Large Large
C 75
o
105
o

Moderate to
large
Moderate to
large
D 45
o
75
o

Moderate to
small
Moderate to
small
E 15
o
45
o
Small Small
F
Under 15
o
or very little
rapid variation and slow
variation under 30
o

Very small Very small
G
Under 15
o
or very little
rapid variation and slow
variation over 30
o

Very small Large
Interpretation of the Stability Classes

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Wind Velocity U for the Model
U = f(z) given by (U/U
1
) = (z/z
1
)
p
, where p depends on
atmospheric stability.
Appropriate value of U for dispersion model is the mean
value through the plume.
If mean U is unavailable, use appropriate U at stack
height. In most cases only U
10m
is available- then
correct for U at stack height using above equation.
If no mention of height of measurement of U is made
use U as mean. If measured height is specified for U,
then correct for it to get U at stack height.

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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Default Wind Profile

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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3928 03 13996 08
08 1 1 1 161.0000 3.0866 270.4 6 509.5 113.0 .2428 45.2 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 2 148.0000 4.1155 270.9 5 517.7 113.0 .3614 100.2 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 3 154.0000 5.1444 272.0 4 526.0 526.0 .4756 212.6 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 4 173.0000 6.1733 270.9 4 534.3 534.3 .5761 264.1 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 5 173.0000 7.7166 271.5 4 542.5 542.5 .7348 549.1 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 6 182.0000 6.1733 270.9 4 550.8 550.8 .5761 264.1 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 7 165.0000 5.6588 269.8 4 559.1 559.1 .5228 208.9 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 8 173.0000 5.6588 269.8 4 567.4 567.4 .5228 208.9 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 9 177.0000 6.6877 272.0 4 575.6 575.6 .6298 346.5 .1500 0 .00
08 1 110191.0000 7.2022 273.7 4 583.9 583.9 .6995 -999.0 .1500 0 .00
08 1 111174.0000 8.7455 275.4 4 592.2 592.2 .8530 -999.0 .1500 0 .00
08 1 112166.0000 8.2310 277.0 4 600.5 600.5 .8061 -750.8 .1500 0 .00
08 1 113183.0000 8.2310 278.7 4 608.7 608.7 .8067 -691.5 .1500 0 .00
08 1 114129.0000 7.2022 279.3 4 617.0 617.0 .7083 -508.8 .1500 0 .00
08 1 115132.0000 7.7166 279.3 4 617.0 617.0 .7547 -882.9 .1500 0 .00
08 1 116154.0000 6.6877 279.3 4 617.0 617.0 .6505 -999.0 .1500 0 .00
08 1 117151.0000 5.1444 278.2 4 617.0 617.0 .4708 174.7 .1500 0 .00
08 1 118127.0000 3.6011 274.3 5 624.6 551.2 .3050 72.3 .1500 0 .00
08 1 119 94.0000 3.0866 272.0 6 632.8 479.2 .2433 45.6 .1500 0 .00
08 1 120 67.0000 2.0578 270.9 6 641.1 407.2 .0999 10.5 .1500 0 .00
ISCST3 Met File

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
49
08 1 1 1 161.0000 3.0866 270.4 6 509.5 113.0 .2428 45.2 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 2 148.0000 4.1155 270.9 5 517.7 113.0 .3614 100.2 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 3 154.0000 5.1444 272.0 4 526.0 526.0 .4756 212.6 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 4 173.0000 6.1733 270.9 4 534.3 534.3 .5761 264.1 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 5 173.0000 7.7166 271.5 4 542.5 542.5 .7348 549.1 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 6 182.0000 6.1733 270.9 4 550.8 550.8 .5761 264.1 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 7 165.0000 5.6588 269.8 4 559.1 559.1 .5228 208.9 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 8 173.0000 5.6588 269.8 4 567.4 567.4 .5228 208.9 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 9 177.0000 6.6877 272.0 4 575.6 575.6 .6298 346.5 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 10 191.0000 7.2022 273.7 4 583.9 583.9 .6995 -999.0 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 11 174.0000 8.7455 275.4 4 592.2 592.2 .8530 -999.0 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 12 166.0000 8.2310 277.0 4 600.5 600.5 .8061 -750.8 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 13 183.0000 8.2310 278.7 4 608.7 608.7 .8067 -691.5 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 14 129.0000 7.2022 279.3 4 617.0 617.0 .7083 -508.8 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 15 132.0000 7.7166 279.3 4 617.0 617.0 .7547 -882.9 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 16 154.0000 6.6877 279.3 4 617.0 617.0 .6505 -999.0 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 17 151.0000 5.1444 278.2 4 617.0 617.0 .4708 174.7 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 18 127.0000 3.6011 274.3 5 624.6 551.2 .3050 72.3 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 19 94.0000 3.0866 272.0 6 632.8 479.2 .2433 45.6 .1500 0 .00
08 1 1 20 67.0000 2.0578 270.9 6 641.1 407.2 .0999 10.5 .1500 0 .00
3928 03 13996 08

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
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CAT1 CAT2 CAT3 CAT4 CAT5 CAT6
0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 A
0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 *
0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
0.100000 0.300000 0.250000 0.150000 0.075000 0.050000 *
0.150000 0.350000 0.220000 0.110000 0.080000 0.200000
0.150000 0.150000 0.100000 0.230000 0.300000 0.250000
0.350000 0.150000 0.300000 0.300000 0.450000 0.300000
0.250000 0.050000 0.130000 0.210000 0.095000 0.200000 *
0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
ISCLT3 Met. Data File
2008

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
51
* ISCLT3 (96113): PB RUN FOR ISCLT3 MODEL - BASED ON 2003 VALUES
* MODELING OPTIONS USED:
* CONC RURAL FLAT DFAULT
* PLOT FILE OF PERIOD VALUES FOR SOURCE GROUP: ALL
* FOR A TOTAL OF 352 RECEPTORS.
* FORMAT: (2(1X,F13.5),1X,F14.6,1X,F8.2,2X,A6,2X,A8,2X,A8)
Output Plot file
X Y CONC ZELEV AVE GROUP NET ID
76.53668 184.77591 0.000000 0.00 PERIOD ALL POL1
191.34172 461.93976 0.000000 0.00 PERIOD ALL POL1
229.61006 554.32770 0.000002 0.00 PERIOD ALL POL1
267.87839 646.71570 0.000015 0.00 PERIOD ALL POL1
306.14673 739.10364 0.000057 0.00 PERIOD ALL POL1
344.41510 831.49158 0.000140 0.00 PERIOD ALL POL1
382.68344 923.87952 0.000265 0.00 PERIOD ALL POL1
574.02515 1385.81934 0.001029 0.00 PERIOD ALL POL1
765.36688 1847.75903 0.001539 0.00 PERIOD ALL POL1

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
52
Calculate the following equation:


X = Q exp (-1/2(H/ o
z
)
2
)
t o
y
o
z
U


Q = 4800 g/sec
o
y
= 550 m
o
z
= 135 m
U = 11 m/s
H = 100 m


2.
Where t = 3.14

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
53
Calculate night time concentration of oxides of Nitrogen
1 Km downwind of an open burning dump, If the dump
emits 2g/sec of NO
2
. The wind speed is 4m/sec at
z=10m . o
y
=70m of 1 hr average diffusion coefficient , and
o
z
=50m. If dump is point source.

Q
X(x,0,0,0) =
t o
y
o
z
U



X(x,0,z,0) = Q exp(-1/2((z-H)/ oz )
2
)

t oy oz U

1.
Where t = 3.14

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
54
g/m
3
=

ppm * MW * 10
6


24,500



PPm = g/m
3
* 24,500 * 10
-6

MW




Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
i) Normal Scenarios:
a) Emission of liquefied natural gas (LNG) vapors (Loss of containment) at -30
o
C of gas
ii) Emergency Scenarios:
b) Emission of liquefied natural gas (LNG) vapors (Loss of containment) at fire condition.
2CH
4
+ 3O
2
2CO +4H
2
O
CH
4
+ 5O
2
+ 3(3.76)N
2
4NO + NO
2
+ CO
2
+ 2H
2
O
Modeling Scenarios:
Modeling scenarios based on the various environmental, storage and decking
conditions:
Equation
c) Emission of liquefied natural gas (LNG) vapors (Loss of containment) explosion / storage tank rupture.
Equation
d) Emission of liquefied natural gas (LNG) vapors (Loss of containment) explosion without storage tank rupture.
LNG Storage Tank Modeling

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
MODELING INPUTS
LNG molecular weight = 18
Density (at 1013.25 mbar at atm. Pressure equilibrium) = 420 kg / m3. LNG
Density = 423 kg / m3 or 3.530106 lb/gal(US). Liquid phase @ -161.6oC
Density = 0.681 kg / m3. Gas phase @ 0oC
Vapor pressure (psia) at 40oF =0.07117, Vapor pressure (psia) at 50oF =0.07117
Vapor pressure (psia) at 60oF = 0.06827, Vapor pressure (psia) at 70oF= 0.06827
Vapor pressure (psia) at 80oF= 0.06685, Vapor pressure (psia) at 90oF =0.065427
Vapor pressure (psia) at 100oF =0.064005
Tank 1 volume = 13,722 m3 = 484587.86 ft3
Tank 2 volume = 26,153 m3 = 923584.48 ft3
Tank 3 volume = 30,049 m3 = 1061170.42 ft3
Tank 4 volume = 30,031 m3 = 1060534.76 ft3
Tank 5 volume = 30,043 m3 = 1060958.53 ft3
Length overall LOA = 280.6 m = 920.65 ft
Length between perpendiculars Lpp = 266 m
Breadth = 41.6 m = 136.4896 ft
Turnover per year = 100 (No. of times tank is filled or empted in a year)
Depth = 27.5 m = 90.2275 ft = 6.94ft
Net Throughput (gal/yr) = 100*2383740 = 238374000 (turnover multiplied by tank volume)
Gas sent our rate = 750 m
3
/hr = 26486 ft
3
/hr = 635664 ft
3
/day = 232017360 ft
3
/year
Floating Storage Unit (FSU) = 135,000 m
3
or 35663227.06835 gal or 4767480 ft
3
or
2383740 ft
3
(divided by 2) or 17831613.506494 gal
Turnover per year = Gas sent our rate / Floating Storage Unit (FSU) = 232017360 / 2383740 = 100
Height of the Tank = 24.6 m
Diameter of the Tank = 37.5 m

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
NORMAL SCENARIO
Emission of liquefied natural gas (LNG) vapors (Loss of containment) at
normal atmospheric conditions
24-Hourly Concentrations Monthly Concentrations
Pollutant Months
Concentration
(mg/m
3
)
Pollutant Months
Concentration
(mg/m
3
)
CH4 Jan 462.7637 CH4 Jan 132.57381
CH4 Feb 510.83643 CH4 Feb 89.64204
CH4 Mar 306.90994 CH4 Mar 119.48125
CH4 Apr 342.24738 CH4 Apr 149.258
CH4 May 328.27609 CH4 May 114.94402
CH4 Jun 306.90994 CH4 Jun 116.56017
CH4 Jul 524.43585 CH4 Jul 171.97145
CH4 Aug 521.18225 CH4 Aug 192.47266
CH4 Sep 521.18225 CH4 Sep 167.50706
CH4 Oct 524.43585 CH4 Oct 171.97145
CH4 Nov 521.18225 CH4 Nov 186.60109
CH4 Dec 521.18225 CH4 Dec 169.73735

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
Color Contour Map for the month of January

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
Color Contour Map for the month of February

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
Color Contour Map for the month of June

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
Emergency Scenario:
Emission of liquefied natural gas (LNG) vapors (Loss of containment) due to failure
of temperature control system due to collision, Tsunami or other freak weather
incidence
24-hourly Concentrations Monthly Concentrations
Pollutant Months
Concentration
(mg/m
3
)
Pollutant Months
Concentration
(mg/m
3
)
CH4 Jan 276732.7813 CH4 Jan 79279.16406
CH4 Feb 305480.3125 CH4 Feb 53605.95703
CH4 Mar 212716.7656 CH4 Mar 56145.87891
CH4 Apr 196309.0938 CH4 Apr 67950.23438
CH4 May 183532.1406 CH4 May 81289.50781
CH4 Jun 183532.1406 CH4 Jun 81289.50781
CH4 Jul 196309.1094 CH4 Jul 68736.59375
CH4 Aug 311666.9688 CH4 Aug 115098.5078
CH4 Sep 311666.9688 CH4 Sep 100169.0391
CH4 Oct 313612.625 CH4 Oct 102838.6719
CH4 Nov 311666.9688 CH4 Nov 111587.1719
CH4 Dec 311666.9688 CH4 Dec 101502.7656

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
Color Contour Map for the month of January

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
Color Contour Map for the month of February

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
Color Contour Map for the month of June

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
Shadow modeling of KPT Tower Complex
E W
S
N
Equinoxes-I
Sunrise: 06:42 Hrs
Culmination: 12:41 Hrs
Sunset: 18:41 Hrs
Latitude: 24.54
o
N
Building Height: 330.098 m
S.
No
Time
(PST)
Sun Parameters Shadow
Elevation Azimuth Direction
elongation
(m)
1 0700 4.7
o
92.1
o
270
o
3979.9
2 0730 11.5
o
95.3
o
280
o
1614.74
3 0800 18.3
o
98.6
o
290
o
996.38
4 0900 31.6
o
106.2
o
300
o
535.28
5 1000 44.4
o
116.4
o
310
o
337.18
6 1100 56.7
o
131.8
o
320
o
224.78
7 1200 63.8
o
157.3
o
350 162.42
8 1300 65.1
o
192.4
o
15
o
153.41
9 1400 58.7
o
221.7
o
30
o
200.52
10 1500 48.1
o
239.7
o
50
o
296.19
11 1600 35.7
o
251.1
o
67
o
459.71
12 1700 22.5
o
259.3
o
78
o
797.24
13 1800 9.0
o
266.1
o
85
o
2092.01
14 1830 2.2
o
269.2
o
90
o
8781.19

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
(21 March 2007)
Equinoxes-I
0730 0800 0900
1000
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1100
0700
0700 0730 0800 0900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800
3979.9
1614.7
4 996.38 535.28 337.18 224.78 162.42 153.41 200.52 296.19 459.71 797.24
2092.0
1

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
0700 0800 0900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800
2306 830 473 304 205 155 161 220 330 521 955 3436
(23 September 2007)
Equinoxes-II
0700 0800 0900 1000
1730
1700
1600
1500 1400
1300
1100

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
(15th May 2007)
Summer
0700
0800
0900 1000
1730
1700
1600
1500 1400
1300
1100
0600 0700 0800 0900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1830
11136 1254 618 371 228 128 50 55 135 238 385 545 1348 25166
33.74 3.80 1.87 1.12 0.69 0.39 0.15 0.17 0.41 0.72 1.17 1.65 4.08 76.24

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
Modeling Of

Karachi Elevated
Expressway (KEE)

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
CO Average Concentrations in mg/m
3
at Level-I on Baloch colony

Y-Coordinates
X-Coordinates (Meters)
-
100
-50 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
200
23.4
8
35.6
1
42.4
6
52.5
5
57.6
4
58.6
7
57.2
8
35.6
9
25.8
1
100
57.8
4
83.1
1
89.4
1
85.1
7
77.5
5
70.0
3
63.5
8
35.6
8
25.0
9
50
53.6
9
82.9
3
91.7
0
88.5
2
81.0
8
73.1
5
66.6
4
36.7
4
26.3
6
-50
30.1
8
39.6
9
44.0
8
45.2
5
44.5
0
42.6
3
39.2
8
20.2
1
14.7
4
-100
28.9
1
33.5
5
43.4
7
52.2
4
56.3
7
57.0
2
55.6
5
34.6
1
25.6
3
CO Average Concentrations in mg/m
3
at Level-II on Baloch colony

Y-Coordinates
X-Coordinates (Meters)
-
100
-50 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
200
23.9
8
33.9
37.7
6
38.3
6
37.3
4
36.5
8
35.5
3
19.3
2
12.8
8
100
19.8
3
30.7
7
37.1
5
46.4
4
51.0
5
52
50.7
7
31.4
5
22.6
50
45.7
6
66.6
3
72.0
2
68.7
1
62.5
8
56.4
8
51.2
5
31.4
1
21.9
5
-50
45.6
7
59.5
4
66.1
7
63.9
9
58.7
5
53.3
1
48.5
7
26.4
2
18.5
9
-100
25.6
4
34.2
9
38.5
3
39.8
5
39.3
5
37.7
9
34.9
6
17.8
7
12.9
6
CO Average Concentrations in mg/m
3
at Level-III on Baloch colony

Y-
Coordinates
X-Coordinates (Meters)
-
100
-50 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
200
34.4
8
44.7
5
48.6
9
57.0
6
72.7
8
83.1
4
89.9
3
85.8
6
78.2
5
100 33.2
47.1
1
54.4
8
56.8
4
63.3
7
74.3
3
82.6
7
80.0
1
73.5
1
50
45.3
6
61.1
8
64.9
9
62.3
2
57.2
3
41.7
5
44.5
2
51.0
2
43.5
3
-50 17
24.3
5
28.6
2
31.9
4
38.1
3
42.7
3
48.0
5
49.7
2
49.1
2
-100 7.84 2.22 7.54
11.0
4
13.2
16.7
4
37.5
2
37.5
9
42.3
7

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)
NOx Average Concentrations in mg/m
3
at Level-I on Baloch colony

Y-
Coordinate
s
X-Coordinates (Meters)
-
100
-50 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
200 4.63 7.44
12.6
9
13.4
7
11.4
3
10.7
3
9.67 8.48 6.92
100 3.71 6.11
11.1
9
11.8
1
9.92 8.95 8.18 6.80 6.16
50
19.4
7
28.8
8
43.8
3
40.0
5
34.5
5
33.5
7
25.4
3
18.1
0
14.7
4
-50
22.5
5
26.3
0
35.3
8
28.7
1
32.6
3
26.1
1
28.1
6
20.8
0
16.9
1
-100 6.97 8.66
15.2
3
17.6
5
13.4
2
14.7
5
11.2
3
11.6
6
9.50
NOx Average Concentrations in mg/m
3
at Level-II on Baloch colony

Y-
Coordinates
X-Coordinates (Meters)
-
100
-50 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
200 1.76 2.3 3.44 3.14 4.01 3.39 2.78 2.77 2.32
100
18.3
2
23.8
8
33.1
9
31.2
5
28.7
8
21.9
1
28.2
9
17.5
8
14.7
4
50
16.4
1
22.5
3
33.8
1
31.4
3
28.9 20.8
27.7
5
15.8
3
12.7
1
-50 1.81 2.35 3.27 3.09 2.84 2.12 2.78 1.62 1.3
-100 1.2 1.67 3.06 2.65 4.89 4.38 2.17 3.58 2.99
NOx Average Concentrations in mg/m
3
at Level-III on Baloch colony

Y-
Coordinates
X-Coordinates (Meters)
-
100
-50 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
200
7.65
5
14.0
1
15.3
3
14.8
1
14.8
1
17.1
2
18.0
3
15.5
7
7.65
5
100
13.7
8
27.5
4
25.9
8
27.6
9
26.4
5
25
22.6
3
20.5
5
13.7
8
50
13.5
6
29.3
5
30.8
6
27.9
24.7
1
24.8
9
22.2
5
20.0
1
13.5
6
-50
5.44
6
10.0
9
12.5
8
11.9
4
11.1
3
9.99
6
8.84
1
7.81
6
5.44
6
-100
0.06
7
0.45
5
0.63
4
0.63
4
0.66
9
0.69
3
0.66
5
0.61
3
0.06
7

Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)

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