Professional Documents
Culture Documents
14 March 2013
Even though the world has just discovered it, the India growth story is not new. It has been going on for 25 years old
India Story
Sources: 1900-1990: Angus Maddison (1995), Monitoring the World Economy, 1990-2000:Census of India (2001), 20002005 Finance Ministry
India Story
1901 1950 1951 1980 1981 1990 1991 2000 2001 2010
Sources: 1900-1990: Angus Maddison (1995), Monitoring the World Economy, 1990-2000:Census of India (2001)
India Story
3. Literacy is rising
1950 1990 2000 2010 (proj)
% 17 52 65 80
India Story
8 22 32
65 220 368
Source: The Consuming Class, National Council of Applied Economic Research, 2002
India Story
5. Poverty is declining
1980 2000 2011 2015 46% 37% 30% 22%
1% of the people have been crossing poverty line each year for 20 years. Equals ~ 200 million.
India Story
6. Productivity is rising
India Story
India Story
th 4
largest
And it will cross Japan between 2012 and 2014 to become the 3rd largest
DRIVERS OF GROWTH
India
Domestic
DRIVERS OF GROWTH
India
Domestic Services
DRIVERS OF GROWTH
India
Domestic Services Consumption
DRIVERS OF GROWTH
India
Domestic Services Consumption High tech, capital intensive industry
Domestic led
Insulation from global downturns Less volatility
Services led
Have we skipped the industrial revolution?
64 58 42 33 41 45 59
The world needs another big consuming economy after the U.S.
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Earlier we had world class institutions, but they are now failing
Bureaucracy Judiciary Police
Key Reforms
Opened economy to trade and investment
Dismantled controls Lowered tariffs Dropped tax rates
Mental Revolution
- I want to be Bilgay - Rajus secret of success - Banianisation of society - 100 cable channels for $3 - Hinglish
Looking Forward
7% - 8% economic growth Democracy will not permit more than 8%
Convergence in the
st 21
century
Why convergence is intuitive Convergence didnt happen in the 20th century because the world was closed Returning to a world of equality prior to 1750 When China and India accounted for 45% of world GDP
Demographic dividend
54%
0-25 yrs
46%
25+ yrs
1.5 bn 1.1 bn
Labor Force
Savings Rate
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1980's 2002 2025 China 2002 17% 24% 35+% 42%
Higher savings and investment rate will translate into higher GDP growth
Indias demographic advantage means that its high growth will continue longer term while China will slow
MIDDLE CLASS
1980 2000 2010 2020 2040 % 8 22 32 50 West of the Kanpur-Chennai line 50 East of the Kanpur-Chennai line
By 2010 India will have worlds largest number of English speakers When 300 million Indians speak a word in a certain way, that will be the way to speak it.
-Prof. David Crystal, Cambridge Encyclopedia of the English Language
REFORM SCHOOL
Labour
REFORM SCHOOL
Labour Agriculture
Second Green Revolution technologically led, based on GM seeds labor intensive needs reforms
REFORM SCHOOL
Bottom Line
Indian prosperity is on auto pilot Cant do without government. But governance reform will take time, till middle class is dominant. Human capital will continue to flower based on private initiative, and drive the nation