Glacial Melt and Downstream Impacts on Indus-Dependent Water Resources and Energy

Chaudhry Inayatullah
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal

CONSULTATIVE WORKSHOP May 2010 Islamabad

Who are most vulnerable?

The River Basins

River basins
Indus Ganges Brahmaputra Irrawaddy Salween Mekong Yangtze Yellow Tarim Amu Darya

Hydrological significance of river basins

UNEP (in progress)

Declining per Capita Availability of Water in Pakistan

3000

2500

2000 (m3/capita/year)

Satisfactory

1500

Water Stress
1000

Water Scarcity
500

Water Famine
1981 1998 2003 2010 2025 2035 2050

Year

ADB TA 6420-REG: Promoting Climate Change Impact & Adaptation in Asia and the Pacific

Glacial Melt and Downstream Impact on IndusDependent Water Resources and Energy Partners: ICIMOD, IUCN and PMD

Output 1
Gap analysis knowledge on impacts of climate change on the Western Himalayas, and ADBs water and hydro-energy projects and program area, and identification of priority risk management and adaptation research activities Activity 1: Compile & analyze existing scientific publications on climate change impact Activity 2: Conduct gap-analysis on the state of knowledge (modeling, impacts, risk & adaptation analysis, adaptation plans, donor interventions, etc.) Activity 3: Scoping of historical and GCM downscale modeling data

Output 2:
Medium and long term in-country and regional partners secured
Activity 1: Organize national consultation workshops Activity 2: Establish a Glacial Impact & Risk Management Steering Committee Activity 3: Identify possible regional partner institutions and develop partnership agreements

Output 3:

A practical Mountain Glacier and Downstream Water Risk Management Framework and Adaptation guide
Activity: Formulation of the practical Mountain Glacier and Downstream Water Risk Management Framework & Adaptation Guide for hydropower and water sectors

Output 4
Rapid desk-top and sample field risk screening of ADBs project portfolio and pipeline in the water and energy sectors
Activity 1: Undertake preliminary desk-top climate risk screening of ADBs existing loans in the water and hydropower sectors
Activity 2: Undertake sample field screening of loans in Indus water and / or hydropower sectors

Output 5
Scoping, costing of CCF adaptation priority activities for ADB project portfolio
Activity 1: Compile option profile for CCF Phase II financing Activity 2: Develop consensus on priority activities to be considered for financing Activity 3: Determine core Phase II requirements Activity 4: Prepare draft project proposal in the appropriate format

Outcome
ADB, IUCN, ICIMOD, PMD, MOE have identified priority activities for knowledge gap-filling research, policy, planning, institutional strengthening and climateproofing of ADBs project and program activities in the water and energy sectors and improved ADB / host country operations to adapt to climate change in project / program areas

Impact
ADB and host country loan operations are better aligned to risk management and adaptation requirements supporting the water and hydro-energy sectors in the Indus basin given the anticipated impacts of climate change and glacial melt in the Western Himalayas

Thank you
* Attabad landslide 4 Jan 2010 * Passu glacial lake burst out on 17 May 2010 * Gulkin glacier lake burst out anytime