Municipal Water Demand

Municipal water demands and demand variations Population forecasting and water demand estimations

Water Requirements
Consumptive use and non-consumptive use (to provide services) Domestic requirements
Drinking and cooking (use in kitchens) Bathing and washing (of clothes) toilet flushing mopping and floor cleaning air conditioning (coolers), car washing or automobile cleaning Gardening, road and /or yard wetting

Commercial, institutional and industrial uses Use for public purposes: street washing, watering, sewer flushing, watering public parks Requirements of livestock Fire fighting Unaccounted for water

Water demands/requirements
Demand is highly variable both in space and time Time of the day, day of the week, month and season all influence the demand Socio-economic conditions, life styles and standard of living all influence the demand Climate conditions such as, temperature, precipitation, wind, etc., affect the water demand Water supply pressure, water charges, water metering, and water supply patterns also influence demand Conservation measures affect demands (source minimization and effluent recycling and reuse) The following information may be needed area wise over the design period (for intermediary period and at the end of the design period)
Per capita water demand (LPCD) Peak Hour Demand (PHD) Maximum Day Demand (MDD) Average Day Demand (ADD)

Design Period
Usually taken as 30 years after completion of the project
50 years for certain components and 15 years for certain other components Time lag between design and completion of project can be 2 to 5 years

Future expansion and duplication provisions can be incorporated into the project Water supply should match with water demand at the end of design period
Water requirements at the end of the design period should be known Requires population and its spatial distribution at the end of the design period.

Commercial, institutional and industrial development patterns of the city should be known Life styles and Improvements in living standards affect the water demands Water conservation measures (source minimization and recycling and reuse of treated effluents) minimize water demands

Population Forecasting
Population projections are needed at the end of the design period and for the intermediary period Area wise population projections are needed Trends in population growth in the recent past become basis for future population projections Population to be served depends on population influx and outflux; birth and death rates; annexation of new areas Many methods can be used
Graphical methods Method of density Sigmoid growth (logistic growth model) Arithmetical increase method Incremental increase method Geometrical increase method Decreasing rate of growth method

Selection of the method of forcasting is very important

Population Forecasting
Sigmoid growth (logistic growth model)
Gives complete trend of growth of the city right from the beginning to saturation limit of population

Population Forecasting
Geometrical increase method / uniform rate of increase method
Applicable for growing towns with vast scope for expansion Assumes uniform rate of increase Find decadal rate of increase and obtain geometric mean Uniform rate of increase: take average decadal rate of increase

Population Forecasting
Decreasing rate of growth method
Find saturation population size, find population growth rate constant and forecast population

Alternatively find average decrease of the rate of the population growth is calculated and used

Population Forecasting
Arithmetical increase method
Applicable to large old cities that achieved saturation conditions and showing constant population growth rate Valid if approximately equal incremental increases have occurred between recent censuses. Average increase of population per decade is calculated from the past population records

Population Forecasting
Incremental increase method
Increment in the arithmetical increase is determined and used Average of increase in population is taken as per the arithmetic method and to this, average of the net incremental increase (one for every future decade) is added a progressive decrease in the average increase can also be adopted

nn 1Y P30 P0 nX 2

n is number of decades X average arithmetic increase Y is average incremental increase

Population Forecasting
Graphical method
The city in question considered The cities similar are taken into consideration

Water Demand Assessment

Area/sector/zone wise demand assessments needed Average Day Demand (ADD), Maximum Day Demand MDD) and Peak Hour Demand (PHD) needed Can be done from the forecasted population, per capita water consumption and service factor values
Wdn = (Pn x C x F ) + Dn
Wdn = water demand at the end of year n Pn = projected population at the end of year n C = per capita consumption at the end of year n F = service factor at the end of year n (population fraction served) Dn = additional demand at the end of year n

Knowing per capita water demand is a problem Only domestic demands (commercial and institutional demands!) assessed assessment of dn is a problem

Demographic data, stock data and end use data all influence the water demand technology influences

Water Demand Assessment

Clearly delineate the service area
Current service area and proposed expansion of the service area are shown on a map

Make population projections

Subtract the population that will not be served (other on-site sources of water rainwater, borewell water may be used)

Find current per capita water use

Historical data may be used ( preferably of last 5 years)

Find per capita water use to be used in the assessment

Make conservation corrections to per capita water use Make adjustments to the unaccounted for water (UFW)

Consider large independent users (industrial, institutional and commercial users)separately

Population equivalents or equivalent residential units

Make water demand assessments

Water Demands
The demand assessment should include the following Residential demand kitchen, laundry, toilet, bathing, wash basin, household leaks, evaporative air conditioning, car wash, dust/heat suppression, kitchen garden demand Commercial demand Institutional demand industrial demand Other special demands Public water demand Fire fighting demand kL / day 100 P Unaccounted for water (wastage, leakage, illegal taping, damaged meters)

What factors affect demand for water?

Example of End Use Consumption