Planning and Demography

Demography is the scientific study of human population. Demographers are very interested in: 1) Population size, 2) Population composition, 3) Population distribution, 4) Causes of changes in these factors over time, 5) Consequences of these changes over time. Demographers study in detail these changes over time, investigating issues such as changes in fertility rates, mortality rates, and migration. Planners are also very interested in these very same issues, but from a perspective of: --how do population changes influence the demand for and provision of infrastructure and public services --how will population changes impact the environment --how do population changes influence changes in land use

 Population size: The number of people in a given geography at a given time. U.S., Florida, and Leon County Population 1960-2000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Population Size

US FL LC

179,323,175 203,211,926 226,545,805 248,709,873 281,421,906

4,951,560
74,225

6,789,443
103,047

9,746,324
148,665

12,937,926
192,493

15,982,378
239,452

Natural Increase: The amount of population increase attributable to a greater number of births than deaths. --In US in 1990, 17 births per 1000, 9 deaths per 1000 a natural increase of 8 per 1000 (0.8%) (290 million) --World 1.8% per year for natural increase (6.26 billion) Use the Rule of 70 to determine doubling time: Divide 70 by the growth rate. So World will double population in ~39 years (70/1.8 = ~39)

Population Distribution
Population distribution: The location of population across geography/space. Major shifts in population distribution occurred in the Twentieth Century in the United States: --Concentration: Movement from Rural to Urban/Metro Areas --Deconcentration: Movement from Central Cities to Suburbs --Migration from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt Planners are particularly interested in these changes and their impacts on the built and natural environments. These macro-level changes have tremendous impacts upon communities of all sizes and in all areas of the United States.

Concentration Illustrated

Roughly 4 of every 5 Americans lives in a metropolitan area now.

Deconcentration Illustrated

As of 2000, 1 of every 2 Americans lives in a suburban area.

Regional Shifts Illustrated

Regional Shifts Illustrated

Population Composition
Population composition: The characteristics of the population. Among those characteristics of interest to demographers and planners are: --Age --Sex --Race/Ethnicity Again, the United States experienced many changes in these attributes throughout the Twentieth Century: --An aging population --The rise of women --An increasingly racially and ethnically diverse population

An Aging Population Illustrated

An Aging Population Illustrated

The Rise of Women Illustrated

A Diversifying Population Illustrated

A Diversifying Population Illustrated

Population Pyramids
One way of looking at changes in the composition of a population is through Population Pyramids. Population pyramids show the composition of a population by age and sex (percent population in all age-sex cohorts) These pyramids typically show the following: --Males on left side/Females on the right side --Age groups as individual cohorts going from youngest on the bottom to oldest on the top These pyramids can be done for different geographies and/or different racial and ethnic groups.

U.S. Population Pyramids 1900, 1950, 2000

Floridas Population Pyramid, 2000

85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69

Age Cohorts

60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

Females Males

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

Percent Population

Source: 2000 Census SF1, Table P12

Franklin County Population Pyramid, 2000

85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

Females Males

Age Cohorts

Percent Population

Source: 2000 Census SF1, Table P12

Leon County Population Pyramid, 2000

85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69

Age Cohorts

60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

Females Males

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Percent Population

Source: 2000 Census SF1, Table P12

Measuring Population Change

Population change is simply the difference in population between two points in time. Change can be expressed in Absolute or Percentage terms. Absolute Change: The simple difference between population figures. Negative values indicate a loss in population. Floridas Absolute Population Change 1990-2000 Pop 2000 Pop 1990 15,982,378 12,937,926 = 3,044,452 Percent Change: The relative growth rate over a period of time calculated as a percentage using the formula: [(New-Old)/Old] *100 Floridas Percent Population Change 1990-2000 (Pop2000-Pop1990)/Pop1990*100 (15,982,378- 12,937,926) * 100 = 23.53% 12,937,926

Example Percent Population Change Analysis

U.S., Florida, and Leon County Population Change 1960-2000
1960 U.S. %Chg Florida %Chg Leon Co %Chg 1970 13.3% 4,951,560 6,789,443 37.1% 1980 11.5% 9,746,324 43.6% 1990 9.8% 12,937,926 32.7% 2000 13.2% 15,982,378 23.5%

179,323,175 203,211,926 226,545,805 248,709,873 281,421,906

74,225

103,047
38.8%

148,665
44.3%

192,493
29.5%

239,452
24.4%

Florida and Leon County grew at much faster rates than the United States as a whole during the period 1960-2000. Leon Countys growth mirrored that of Floridas during this period.

Components of Population Change

Demographers rely upon the Demographic Balancing Equation to very simply and elegantly summarize population change: Pop2 = Pop1 + B D + IM OM, where Pop2 = Population at a later time period Pop1 = Population at an earlier time period B = Births Migration D = Deaths Mortality IM = In-Migration Fertility OM = Out-Migration The nature of population change is simple changes can only occur through: 1) Births, 2) Deaths, or 3) Migration

Fertility Component
Fertility: The number of births that occur to an individual or in a population. Fecundity: The physiological ability of individuals or couples to have children. Maximum fecundity for a population is believed to be 15 children. Another key concept is the at-risk population. Only a certain subset of the population is at-risk for fertility Women aged 12-50 Factors that affect fertility include: 1) Gender (Duh!) 4) Socioeconomic status 2) Age 5) Others Religion, Culture, Education 3) Race/Ethnicity Common calculations related to fertility include: 1) Total Fertility Rate: Average # of children in a synthetic family 2) General Fertility Rate: #Births per 1000 women of childbearing age 3) Crude Birth Rate: # Births/Midyear Population

Mortality Component
Mortality: Analyzes the number and causes of deaths in a population. Life Span: The upper limit to human lives is theorized to be somewhere around 120, although there are reports of some people living as long as 135 years. Factors affecting mortality include: 1) Age (J-curve) 4) Race/Ethnicity 2) Gender 5) Modernity 3) Socioeconomic status Common calculations related to mortality include: 1) Overall Death Rate: Deaths per 1000 population 2) Crude Death Rate: # Deaths/Midyear Population 3) Age-Sex-Race specific survival rates: The likelihood that an individual with certain characteristics will survive the year 4) Life Expectancy: The expected number of years an individual will live if they were to live their entire life right now. In 1900~30 (worldwide) By 2000~70 (worldwide)

Theory of the Demographic Transition

When taken together, mortality and fertility can combine to form four scenarios:

Mortality Low Fertility High

Low USA, Japan, W. Europe, Aus. Southern Africa, Latin Amer. Asia (parts)

High None
Northern Africa, Asia (parts)

It is theorized that as countries move from less developed to more developed, they transition from a High Birth/High Death society to one of Low Birth/Low Death. It is during this transition that (it is theorized) developing countries experience a population boom. Why?

Migration Component
Migration: The movement of people into and out of a certain area. Migration can occur at all geographic levels. 1) Neighborhood 2) Within a county 3) Across states: Out-migration versus In-migration 4) To a different country: Emigration (out of a country) versus Immigration (into a country) Migration in the United States: Approximately 20% of Americans move per year Americans move about 11 times over their lifetimes (on average) Factors affecting migration include 1) Age 2) Gender 3) Socioeconomic Status 4) Race and Ethnicity

Major State to State Migration Flows