Normal Distribution

Objectives
Introduce the Normal Distribution
Properties of the Standard Normal
Distribution
Introduce the Central Limit Theorem
Use Normal Distribution in an inferential
fashion
Theoretical Distribution
Empirical distributions
based on data
Theoretical distribution
based on mathematics
derived from model or estimated from data
Normal Distribution
Why are normal distributions so important?
Many dependent variables are commonly
assumed to be normally distributed in the
population
If a variable is approximately normally
distributed we can make inferences about
values of that variable
Example: Sampling distribution of the mean
So what?
Remember the Binomial distribution
With a few trials we were able to calculate possible
outcomes and the probabilities of those outcomes
Now try it for a continuous distribution with an
infinite number of possible outcomes. Yikes!

The normal distribution and its properties are
well known, and if our variable of interest is
normally distributed, we can apply what we know
about the normal distribution to our situation, and
find the probabilities associated with particular
outcomes
Normal Distribution
Symmetrical, bell-shaped curve
Also known as Gaussian distribution
Point of inflection = 1 standard deviation
from mean
Mathematical formula

f (X) =
1
o 2t
(e)

( X )
2
2o
2
Since we know the shape of the curve, we can
calculate the area under the curve
The percentage of that area can be used to determine
the probability that a given value could be pulled
from a given distribution
The area under the curve tells us about the probability- in
other words we can obtain a p-value for our result (data)
by treating it as a normally distributed data set.
Key Areas under the Curve
For normal
distributions
+ 1 SD ~ 68%
+ 2 SD ~ 95%
+ 3 SD ~ 99.9%
Example IQ mean = 100 s = 15
Problem:
Each normal distribution with its own values of
and o would need its own calculation of the area
under various points on the curve

Normal Probability Distributions
Standard Normal Distribution N(0,1)
We agree to use the
standard normal
distribution
Bell shaped
=0
o=1
Note: not all bell
shaped distributions are
normal distributions
Normal Probability Distribution
Can take on an infinite
number of possible
values.
The probability of any
one of those values
occurring is essentially
zero.
Curve has area or
probability = 1
Normal Distribution
The standard normal distribution will allow us
to make claims about the probabilities of
values related to our own data
How do we apply the standard normal
distribution to our data?
Z-score
If we know the population mean and
population standard deviation, for any value
of X we can compute a z-score by subtracting
the population mean and dividing the result by
the population standard deviation

z =
X
o
Important z-score info
Z-score tells us how far above or below the mean a
value is in terms of standard deviations
It is a linear transformation of the original scores
Multiplication (or division) of and/or addition to (or
subtraction from) X by a constant
Relationship of the observations to each other remains the
same
Z = (X-)/o
then
X = oZ +
[equation of the general form Y = mX+c]
Probabilities and z scores: z tables
Total area = 1
Only have a probability from width
For an infinite number of z scores each point has
a probability of 0 (for the single point)
Typically negative values are not reported
Symmetrical, therefore area below negative value
= Area above its positive value
Always helps to draw a sketch!
Probabilities are depicted by areas under the curve
Total area under the curve
is 1
The area in red is equal to
p(z > 1)
The area in blue is equal to
p(-1< z <0)
Since the properties of the
normal distribution are
known, areas can be looked
up on tables or calculated
on computer.
Strategies for finding probabilities for the
standard normal random variable.
Draw a picture of standard normal
distribution depicting the area of interest.
Re-express the area in terms of shapes like
the one on top of the Standard Normal
Table
Look up the areas using the table.
Do the necessary addition and subtraction.
Suppose Z has standard normal distribution
Find p(0<Z<1.23)
Find p(-1.57<Z<0)
Find p(Z>.78)
Z is standard normal
Calculate p(-1.2<Z<.78)
Example
Data come from distribution: = 10, o = 3
What proportion fall beyond X=13?
Z = (13-10)/3 = 1
=normsdist(1) or table 0.1587
15.9% fall above 13

Example: IQ
A common example is IQ
IQ scores are theoretically normally
distributed.
Mean of 100
Standard deviation of 15
IQs are normally distributed with mean 100 and standard
deviation 15. Find the probability that a randomly selected
person has an IQ between 100 and 115
(100 115)
(100 100 100 115 100)
100 100 100 115 100
(
15 15 15
(0 1) .3413
P X
P X
X
P
P Z
< < =
< < =

< < =
< < =
Say we have GRE scores are normally distributed with mean 500 and
standard deviation 100. Find the probability that a randomly selected
GRE score is greater than 620.
We want to know whats the probability of getting a
score 620 or beyond.




p(z > 1.2)
Result: The probability of randomly getting a score
of 620 is ~.12
620 500
1.2
100
z

= =
Work time...
What is the area for scores less than z = -1.5?
What is the area between z =1 and 1.5?
What z score cuts off the highest 30% of the
distribution?
What two z scores enclose the middle 50% of the
distribution?
If 500 scores are normally distributed with mean =
50 and SD = 10, and an investigator throws out the
20 most extreme scores, what are the highest and
lowest scores that are retained?
Standard Scores
Z is not the only transformation of scores to be
used
First convert whatever score you have to a z
score.
New score new s.d.(z) + new mean

Example- T scores = mean of 50 s.d. 10
Then T = 10(z) + 50.
Examples of standard scores: IQ, GRE, SAT
Wrap up
Assuming our data is normally distributed
allows for us to use the properties of the
normal distribution to assess the likelihood of
some outcome
This gives us a means by which to determine
whether we might think one hypothesis is
more plausible than another (even if we dont
get a direct likelihood of either hypothesis)