GEOG 102 Population, Resources, and the Environment

Professor: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue

Case Study 2 Global Population Trends

1 The Explosion of the Worlds Population 2 North / South Differences 3 Impacts

The Explosion of the Worlds Population

The 20th Century
Huge growth of the worlds population. Almost exponential from the 1920s until today. Population was multiplied by three. Around 80-85 million persons are added each year. 60 million new urbanites per year. Urban population is now 2.6 billion, of which 1.7 billions are in developing countries. More than 65% of the global population is thus living in developing economies.

The Explosion of the Worlds Population

Human welfare
Living conditions are improving in a number of areas, notably in newly industrialized economies.
Insufficient to improve the welfare of the bulk of the worlds population.

Paradox in developing countries:

Population growth monitoring is essential in these areas. They have the least resources available to undertake such a process.

Challenge of the degradation of the living environment of a significant share of the urban population. As the number of people increases, environmental impact also increases.

1
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

World Population 1804-2054 (in billions)

127 years
1804 1850 1900

26 years 2028 15 years 2013 14 years 1999 12 years 1987 13 years 1974 14 years 1960 33 years 1927

2054

1800

1950

2000

2050

Population Added to the Global Population, 19501998 (in millions)

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
19 50 19 53 19 56 19 59 19 62 19 65 19 68 19 71 19 74 19 77 19 80 19 83 19 86 19 89 19 92 19 95 19 98

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11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4

Possible Trends in Population Growth, 2000-2050 (in billions)

High Medium Low

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

The Explosion of the Worlds Population

The 1990s
Critical decade for the future of the worlds population. The worlds nations by their actions or inactions will choose their demographic future. Population growth has started to slow down. Difficult to estimate; often lack of reliable population data.

2015 projections (United Nations)

Population projections range from a low of 7.10 billion people to 7.83 billion. Difference of 720 million people in the short span of 15 years is nearly equal to the current population of Africa.

The Explosion of the Worlds Population

2050 Projections
World population between 7.3 and 10.7 billion. 8.9 billion is the most likely figure. In 1996 this number was estimated to be 9.4 billion. A 500 million difference! Global fertility rates have declined more rapidly than expected.
66% attributed to improvements in health care; smaller families. 33% attributed to increased mortality rates (Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia).

The Explosion of the Worlds Population

Demographic explosion of Third World countries
Main ecological catastrophe affecting humanity. Population consumes resources:
Food and raw materials. Scarce and often poorly managed.

Population consumes energy:

Requires important efforts to supply. Several forms of energy supply (coal and petroleum) are highly damaging for the environment.

Population consumes space:

Often taken at the expense of agriculture or the natural environment.

Population Pyramid of Least Developed Countries, 1950-2050

Population Pyramid, Southeast Asia, 1950

80+ 70-74 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4

Females Males

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

Population Pyramid, Southeast Asia, 2000

80+ 70-74 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4

Females Males

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

Population Pyramid, Southeast Asia, 2050

80+ 70-74 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4

Females Males

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

North / South Division of the World

North

Brandt Line

South

North / South Differences

1950
33%

1985
25%

67%

75%

2000
20%

2025
17%

80%

83%

The Three Worlds

Capitalist economies lead by the United States

West

North

Socialist economies lead by the USSR

East

South
Area of conflict between the first and the second world (Korea, Vietnam, Africa, etc.) Nonaligned nations

North / South Differences

Third World countries
Assume the bulk of the demographic growth. Urbanization:
Urban growth is several developed countries have become stable, notably in Western Europe. The urban population of Germany has increased by 1 million between 1985 and 1995. Urbanization may be in this context solely a problem of Third World countries. In developed economies it will be well managed and under control.

Huge migration pressures from developing countries to developed countries. A source of instability and conflicts.

Impacts
The fewer forks school
Environmentalist argument. Rapidly decrease population growth and consumption patterns.

The bigger pie school

Optimistic economist view. Technology will increase the amount of resource we rely on.

The better manners school

Humanitarian view. Reduce inequality in income and be more rational in the pricing of goods.

Impacts
Increased use of resources
Including non-renewable resources. Consumption of resources associated with population increase. Vast difference in impact between the birth of a baby in a Third World country and one born in the USA.
The latter will consume vastly greater resources and contribute more to planetary degradation.

Strain on soils and food supplies

Land tenure problems. Partible inheritance, resulting in ever-smaller parcels of land. At some point, become uneconomical to farm.

Impacts
Primogeniture is often the norm
Only the oldest son gains access to the family's landholdings. Other siblings are then forced off the land and often migrate to towns and cities, causing overpopulation in urban areas.

Increases in pollution
Associated with growing populations - water, air, noise pollution, etc.

Political instability
Increasing competition for decreasing resources. Much of the political instability the Third World nations is the result of limited access to resources.

Impacts
Quality of life
A less tangible impact. Traffic congestion, increasingly difficult access to nature, a sense of personal space, etc.

Undermine economic development

Offset the gains that would otherwise be registered through economic development.