Political Economy Of International Trade

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Case: Agricultural subsidies and development

Rich nations spend more than $300 billion a year to subsidize their farmers Subsidies create surplus production Surplus production leads to dumping and depressed prices UN estimates producers in developing nations lose $50 billion export revenue because of depressed prices

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Agricultural subsidies and development

Rich countries of the developed world subsidize farm products

Reasons
To keep commodity prices low To favor politically active farmers

Consequences

Surplus production Depressed world prices (a result of surplus)

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Instruments of trade policy

Tariffs - oldest form of trade policy

Specific Ad valorem

Good for government Protects domestic producers

Reduces efficiency Increases cost of goods

Bad for consumers

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Instruments of trade policy-subsidies

Government payment to a domestic producer

Cash grants Low-interest loans Tax breaks Government equity participation in the company

Subsidy revenues are generated from taxes Subsidies encourage over-production, inefficiency and reduced trade

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Instruments of trade policy - Quota

Import quota

Restriction on the quantity of some good imported into a country Quota on trade imposed by exporting country, typically at the request of the importing country

Voluntary export restraint (VER)

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Instruments of trade policy -Quota

Benefits producers by limiting import competition

Japan limited exports to 1.85 mm vehicles/year Cost to consumers - $1B/year between 81 - 85. Money went to Japanese producers in the form of higher prices Encourages strategic action by firms in order to circumvent quota

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Instruments of trade policy- local content

Requires some specific fraction of a good to be produced domestically Percent of component parts Percent of the value of the good Initially used by developing countries to help shift from assembly to production of goods. Developed countries (US) beginning to implement. For component parts manufacturer, LC Regulations acts the same as an import quota Benefits producers, not consumers

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Instruments of trade policy-administrative policies

Bureaucratic rules designed to make it difficult for imports to enter a country. Japanese masters in imposing rules.

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Instruments of trade policy-anti dumping policies

Defined as

Selling goods in a foreign market below production costs Selling goods in a foreign market below fair market value
Unloading excess production. Predatory behavior

Result of

Remedy: seek imposition of tariffs

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Political arguments for intervention

Protecting jobs and industries

Common Agricultural Policy (Europe) and VER Defense industries - semiconductors

National security

Retaliation

Punitive sanctions

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Political arguments for intervention

Protecting consumers

Genetically engineered seeds and crops Hormone treated beef

Protecting human rights

MFN

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Economic arguments for intervention

Infant industry.

Oldest argument - Alexander Hamilton, 1792 Protected under the WTO Only good if it makes the industry efficient.

Brazil auto-makers - 10th largest - wilted when protection eliminated

Requires government financial assistance.

Today if the industry is a good investment, global capital markets would invest

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Economic arguments for intervention

Strategic trade policy

Government should use subsidies to protect promising firms in newly emerging industries with substantial scale economies Governments benefit if they support domestic firms to overcome barriers to entry created by existing foreign firms

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Development of the world trading system

GATT -multilateral agreement established under US leadership1948

Objective is to liberalize trade by eliminating tariffs, subsidies, & import quotas 19 original members grew to 120

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Development of the world trading system

Used Rounds of talks to gradually reduce trade barriers Uruguay Round GATT 1986-93

Mutual tariff reductions negotiated Dispute resolution only if complaints were received

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Disturbing trends in the world trading system

Pressure for greater protectionism due to

Increase in the power of Japans economic machine and closed Japanese markets US trade deficit GATT circumvented by many countries

Through use of VER

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GATT criticisms

Economic theories dont fit the real world model US global preeminence has declined Shift from cutting tariffs to eliminating nontariff barriers angered countries National Treatment or Most Favored Nation status results in inequalities

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The World Trade Organization

The WTO was created during the Uruguay Round of GATT to police and enforce GATT rules Most comprehensive trade agreement in history Formation of WTO had an impact on Agriculture subsidies (stumbling block: US/EU) Applied GATT rules to services and intellectual property (TRIPS) Strengthened GATT monitoring and enforcement

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The WTO

145 members in 2003 Represents 90% of world trade 9 of 10 disputes satisfactorily settled Tariff reduction from 40% to 5% Trade volume of manufactured goods has increased 20 times

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The WTO

Policing organization for:

GATT Services Intellectual property Reports adopted unless specifically rejected After appeal, failure to comply can result in compensation to injured country or trade sanctions

Responsibility for trade arbitration:

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WTO at work

280 disputes brought to WTO between 1995 and 2003 196 handled by GATT during its 50 year history US is biggest WTO user

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The WTO -achievements

Telecommunications (1997)

68 countries (90%) of world telecommunications revenues Pledged to open their market to fair competition 95% of financial services market 102 countries will open, their markets to varying degrees

Financial Services (1997)

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WTO in Seattle

Millennium round was aimed at further reduction of trade barriers in agriculture and services WTO meeting disrupted by

Human rights groups Trade unions Environmentalists Anti globalization groups

No agreement was reached

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Doha agenda -WTO

Cutting tariffs on industrial goods and services Phasing out subsidies Reducing antidumping laws WTO regulation on intellectual property should not prevent members from protecting public health

TRIPS agreement

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Antidumping cases by WTO members

Fig 5.1

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Antidumping actions

Four sectors account for 70 percent of all antidumping actions reported to WTO

Metal industries Chemicals Plastics Machinery and electrical equipment Actions often initiated by politicians in the various countries to please strong lobbying groups in exchange for votes

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Protectionism in agriculture

Recent focus of WTO on agricultural subsides

These are 3 to 5 times higher than nonagricultural subsidies Advanced nations are the strongest defenders of this system

Combination of high tariffs and subsides on agricultural product

Raises price to the consumer Reduces volume of agricultural trade Encourages overproduction of subsidized products

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Protection of intellectual property

Trade related Aspects of Intellectual property (TRIPS)

WTO members allowed to grant and enforce patents and copyrights This encourages innovation Reduces piracy rates in drugs, software music

Expected to boost global economic rates and social and economic welfare around the world

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Managerial implications

Trade barriers act as a constraint on firm strategy May be useful to establish more production activities in the protected country Business gains from governments efforts to open protected markets are more than gains from governments efforts to protect domestic industries/firms