Chapter 12

Quantitative Data Analysis: Hypothesis Testing

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Type I Errors, Type II Errors and Statistical Power

Type I error (): the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true. Type II error (): the probability of failing to reject the null hypothesis given that the alternative hypothesis is actually true. Statistical power (1 - ): the probability of correctly rejecting the null hypothesis.
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Choosing the Appropriate Statistical Technique

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Testing Hypotheses on a Single Mean

One sample t-test: statistical technique that is used to test the hypothesis that the mean of the population from which a sample is drawn is equal to a comparison standard.

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Testing Hypotheses about Two Related Means

Paired samples t-test: examines differences in same group before and after a treatment. The Wilcoxon signed-rank test: a non-parametric test for examining significant differences between two related samples or repeated measurements on a single sample. Used as an alternative for a paired samples ttest when the population cannot be assumed to be normally distributed.

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Testing Hypotheses about Two Related Means - 2

McNemar's test: non-parametric method used on nominal data. It assesses the significance of the difference between two dependent samples when the variable of interest is dichotomous. It is used primarily in before-after studies to test for an experimental effect.

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Testing Hypotheses about Two Unrelated Means

Independent samples t-test: is done to see if there are any significant differences in the means for two groups in the variable of interest.

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Testing Hypotheses about Several Means

ANalysis Of VAriance (ANOVA) helps to examine the signicant mean differences among more than two groups on an interval or ratio-scaled dependent variable.

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Regression Analysis
Simple regression analysis is used in a situation where one metric independent variable is hypothesized to affect one metric dependent variable.

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Scatter plot
100

80

LKLHD_DATE

60

40

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

PHYS_ATTR

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Simple Linear Regression

Yi 0 1 X i i

Y
0

1
1

? `0

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Ordinary Least Squares Estimation

Minimize

e
i 1

2 i

Yi

Y i

ei

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Xi
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SPSS
Analyze Regression Linear

Model Summary Model 1 R .841 R Square .707 Adjusted R Square .704 Std. Error of the Estimate 5.919

ANOVA Model 1 Sum of Squares 8195.319 3398.640 11593.960 df 1 97 98 Mean Square 8195.319 35.038 F 233.901 Sig. .000

Regression Residual Total

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SPSS contd

Coefficients Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error 34.738 2.065 .520 .034 Standardized Coefficients Beta .841

Model 1

(Constant) PHYS_ATTR

t 16.822 15.294

Sig. .000 .000

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Model validation
1. 2. Face validity: signs and magnitudes make sense Statistical validity:
Model fit: R2 Model significance: F-test Parameter significance: t-test Strength of effects: beta-coefficients Discussion of multicollinearity: correlation matrix Out-of-sample forecast errors

3.

Predictive validity: how well the model predicts

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SPSS

Model Summary Model 1 R .841 R Square .707 Adjusted R Square .704 Std. Error of the Estimate 5.919

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Measure of Overall Fit: R2

R2 measures the proportion of the variation in y that is explained by the variation in x. R2 = total variation unexplained variation total variation R2 takes on any value between zero and one:
R2 = 1: Perfect match between the line and the data points. R2 = 0: There is no linear relationship between x and y.

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SPSS

Model Summary Model 1 R .841 R Square .707 Adjusted R Square .704 Std. Error of the Estimate 5.919

= r(Likelihood to Date, Physical Attractiveness)

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Model Significance
H0: 0 = 1 = ... = m = 0 H1: Not H0
(all parameters are zero)

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Model Significance
H0: 0 = 1 = ... = m = 0 H1: Not H0
(all parameters are zero)

Test statistic (k = # of variables excl. intercept)

F =

(SSReg/k) (SSe/(n 1 k)

~ Fk, n-1-k

SSReg = explained variation by regression SSe = unexplained variation by regression

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SPSS

ANOVA Model 1 Sum of Squares 8195.319 3398.640 11593.960 df 1 97 98 Mean Square 8195.319 35.038 F 233.901 Sig. .000

Regression Residual Total

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Parameter significance
Testing that a specific parameter is significant H0 : j = 0 H1 : j 0 (i.e., j 0)

Test-statistic: t = bj/SEj ~ tn-k-1

with bj = the estimated coefficient for j SEj = the standard error of bj

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SPSS contd

Coefficients Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error 34.738 2.065 .520 .034 Standardized Coefficients Beta .841

Model 1

(Constant) PHYS_ATTR

t 16.822 15.294

Sig. .000 .000

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Conceptual Model

Physical Attractiveness

Likelihood to Date

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Multiple Regression Analysis

We use more than one (metric or non-metric) independent variable to explain variance in a (metric) dependent variable.

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Conceptual Model
Perceived Intelligence

+ +

Physical Attractiveness

Likelihood to Date

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Model Summary Model 1 R .844 R Square .712 Adjusted R Square .706 Std. Error of the Estimate 5.895

ANOVA Model 1 Sum of Squares 8257.731 3336.228 11593.960 df 2 96 98 Mean Square 4128.866 34.752 F 118.808 Sig. .000

Regression Residual Total

Coefficients Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error 31.575 3.130 .050 .037 .523 .034 Standardized Coefficients Beta .074 .846

Model 1

(Constant) PERC_INTGCE PHYS_ATTR

t 10.088 1.340 15.413

Sig. .000 .183 .000

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Conceptual Model
Gender

Perceived Intelligence

+ +

+
Likelihood to Date

Physical Attractiveness

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Moderators
Moderator is qualitative (e.g., gender, race, class) or quantitative (e.g., level of reward) that affects the direction and/or strength of the relation between dependent and independent variable Analytical representation
Y = 0 + 1X1 + 2X2 + 3X1X2
with Y = DV X1 = IV X2 = Moderator

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Moderators
Model Summary Model 1 R .910 R Square .828 Adjusted R Square .821 Std. Error of the Estimate 4.601

ANOVA Model 1 Sum of Squares 9603.938 1990.022 11593.960 df 4 94 98 Mean Square 2400.984 21.170 F 113.412 Sig. .000

Regression Residual Total

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Moderators
Coefficients Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error 32.603 3.163 .000 .043 .496 .027 -.420 3.624 .127 .058 Standardized Coefficients Beta .000 .802 -.019 .369

Model 1

(Constant) PERC_INTGCE PHYS_ATTR GENDER PI_GENDER

t 10.306 .004 18.540 -.116 2.177

Sig. .000 .997 .000 .908 .032

interaction significant effect on dep. var.

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Conceptual Model
Gender

Perceived Intelligence

+ +

+
Likelihood to Date

Physical Attractiveness

+
Communality of Interests
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Perceived Fit
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Mediating/intervening variable
Accounts for the relation between the independent and dependent variable

Analytical representation
1. 2. 3. Y = 0 + 1 X => 1 is significant M = 2 + 3 X => 3 is significant Y = 4 + 5X + 6M => 5 is not significant => 6 is significant With Y = DV X = IV M = mediator

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Step 1
Mode l Summary Model 1 R .963 R Square .927 Adjus ted R Square .923 Std. Error of the Estimate 3.020

ANOVA Model 1 Sum of Squares 10745.603 848.357 11593.960 df 5 93 98 Mean Square 2149.121 9.122 F 235.595 Sig. .000

Regression Residual Total

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Step 1 contd

Coefficients Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error 17.094 2.497 .030 .029 .517 .018 -.783 2.379 .122 .038 .212 .019 Standardized Coefficients Beta .044 .836 -.036 .356 .319

Model 1

(Cons tant) PERC_INTGCE PHYS_ATTR GENDER PI_GENDER COMM_INTER

t 6.846 1.039 29.269 -.329 3.201 11.187

Sig. .000 .301 .000 .743 .002 .000

significant effect on dep. var.

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Step 2
Mode l Summary Model 1 R .977 R Square .955 Adjus ted R Square .955 Std. Error of the Estimate 2.927

ANOVA Model 1 Sum of Squares 17720.881 831.079 18551.960 df 1 97 98 Mean Square 17720.881 8.568 F 2068.307 Sig. .000

Regression Residual Total

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Step 2 contd

Coefficients Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error 8.474 1.132 .820 .018 Standardized Coefficients Beta .977

Model 1

(Cons tant) COMM_INTER

t 7.484 45.479

Sig. .000 .000

significant effect on mediator

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Step 3
Mode l Summary Model 1 R .966 R Square .934 Adjus ted R Square .930 Std. Error of the Estimate 2.885

ANOVA Model 1 Sum of Squares 10828.336 765.624 11593.960 df 6 92 98 Mean Square 1804.723 8.322 F 216.862 Sig. .000

Regression Residual Total

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Step 3 contd

Coefficients Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error 14.969 2.478 .019 .028 .518 .017 -2.040 2.307 .142 .037 -.051 .085 .320 .102 Standardized Coefficients Beta .028 .839 -.094 .412 -.077 .405

Model 1

(Cons tant) PERC_INTGCE PHYS_ATTR GENDER PI_GENDER COMM_INTER PERC_FIT

t 6.041 .688 30.733 -.884 3.825 -.596 3.153

Sig. .000 .493 .000 .379 .000 .553 .002

insignificant effect of indep. var on dep. Var. significant effect of mediator on dep. var.
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