CHAPTER 4

Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand

4-1

Chapter Questions
What constitutes good marketing research? What are good metrics for measuring marketing productivity? How can marketers assess their return on investment of marketing expenditures? How can companies more accurately measure and forecast demand
4-2

ITC Used Extensive Market Research before launching the Sunfeast range of biscuits

4-3

What is Marketing Research?

Marketing research is the systematic design, collection, analysis, and reporting of data and findings relevant to a specific marketing situation facing the company.

4-4

Types of Marketing Research Firms

Syndicatedservice

Custom

Specialtyline

4-5

The Marketing Research Process

Define the problem Develop research plan

Collect information
Analyze information Present findings
4-6

Make decision

Step 1: Define the Problem

Define the problem Specify decision alternatives State research objectives

4-7

Step 2: Develop the Research Plan

Data Sources Research Instruments Contact Methods

4-8

Research Approach Sampling Plan

Research Approaches
Observation

Ethnographic
Focus Group Survey

Behavioral Data
Experimentation
4-9

Focus Group in Session

4-10

Research Instruments

Questionnaires Qualitative Measures Technological Devices

4-11

Questionnaire Dos and Donts

Ensure questions are free of bias Make questions simple Make questions specific Avoid jargon Avoid sophisticated words Avoid ambiguous words Avoid negatives Avoid hypotheticals Avoid words that could be misheard Use response bands Use mutually exclusive categories Allow for other in fixed response questions

4-12

Question TypesDichotomous
In arranging this trip, did you contact American Airlines?
Yes No

4-13

Question TypesMultiple Choice

With whom are you traveling on this trip?

No one
Spouse Spouse and children Children only Business associates/friends/relatives An organized tour group
4-14

Question TypesLikert Scale

Indicate your level of agreement with the following statement: Small airlines generally give better service than large ones. Strongly disagree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree Strongly agree
4-15

Question TypesSemantic Differential

American Airlines Large ....Small Experienced..Inexperienced

Modern...Old-fashioned

4-16

Question TypesImportance Scale

Airline food service is _____ to me. Extremely important Very important Somewhat important Not very important Not at all important

4-17

Question TypesRating Scale

American Airlines food service is _____. Excellent Very good Good Fair Poor

4-18

Question Types Intention to Buy Scale

How likely are you to purchase tickets on American Airlines if in-flight Internet access were available? Definitely buy

Probably buy
Not sure

Probably not buy

Definitely not buy
. 4-19

Question TypesCompletely Unstructured

What is your opinion of American Airlines?

4-20

Question TypesWord Association

What is the first word that comes to your mind when you hear the following? Airline ________________________ American _____________________

Travel ________________________

4-21

Question Types Sentence Completion

When I choose an airline, the most important consideration in my decision is: _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ __________________.

4-22

Question TypesStory Completion

I flew American a few days ago. I noticed that the exterior and interior of the plane had very bright colors. This aroused in me the following thoughts and feelings. Now complete the story. _______________________________________ _______________________________________ _______________________________________ _______________________________________ _______________________________________ _______________________________________
4-23

Question TypesPicture (Empty Balloons)

4-24

Question TypesThematic Apperception Test

Make up a story that reflects what you think is happening in this picture.
4-25

Qualitative Measures
Word Association
Projective Techniques

Visualization
Brand Personification

Laddering

4-26

Technological Devices
Galvanometers Tachistoscope Eye cameras Audiometers GPS
4-27

Nielsen Outdoor Leverages GPS to Track Billboard Reach

4-28

Sampling Plan
Sampling unit: Who is to be surveyed? Sample size: How many people should be surveyed? Sampling procedure: How should the respondents be chosen?

4-29

Table 4.2 Types of Samples

Probability Samples Simple random Stratified random Cluster Nonprobability Samples Convenience Judgment Quota

4-30

Contact Methods
Mail Questionnaire Telephone Interview Personal Interview Online Interview

4-31

Pros and Cons of Online Research

Advantages Inexpensive Fast Accuracy of data, even for sensitive questions Versatility Disadvantages Small samples Skewed samples Technological problems Inconsistencies

4-32

What is a Marketing Decision Support System (MDSS)?

A marketing decision support system is a coordinated collection of data, systems, tools, and techniques with supporting hardware and software by which an organization gathers and interprets relevant information from business and environment and turns it into a basis for marketing action.
4-33

Barriers Limiting the Use of Marketing Research

A narrow conception of the research Uneven caliber of researchers Poor framing of the problem Late and occasionally erroneous findings Personality and presentational differences
4-34

Typical Problems in Rural Research

Low literacy levels require innovations in questionnaire design scales Wide geographical dispersion requires long travels A large number of languages and dialects, requiring multiple translations Non-availability of working population at normal places of residence Poor access to women respondents Villages layout based on caste lines, requiring innovative sampling
4-35

Table 4.3 Characteristics of Good Marketing Research

Scientific method Research creativity Multiple methods Interdependence Value and cost of information Healthy skepticism Ethical marketing

4-36

What is Marketing Metrics?

Marketing metrics is the set of measures that helps marketers quantify, compare, and interpret marketing performance.

4-37

Table 4.4 Marketing Metrics

External
Awareness Market share Relative price Number of complaints Customer satisfaction Distribution Total number of customers Loyalty

Internal
Awareness of goals Commitment to goals Active support Resource adequacy Staffing levels Desire to learn Willingness to change Freedom to fail Autonomy

4-38

What is Marketing-Mix Modeling?

Marketing-mix models analyze data from a variety of sources, such as retailer scanner data, company shipment data, pricing, media, and promotion spending data, to understand more precisely the effects of specific marketing activities.

4-39

Marketing Dashboards
A customer-performance scorecard records how well the company is doing year after year on customer-based measures. A stakeholder-performance scorecard tracks the satisfaction of various constituencies who have a critical interest in and impact on the companys performance including employees, suppliers, banks, distributors, retailers, and stockholders.
4-40

Table 4.5 Sample Customer-Performance Scorecard Measures

% of new customers to average # % of lost customers to average # % of win-back customers to average # % of customers in various levels of satisfaction % of customers who would repurchase % of target market members with brand recall % of customers who say brand is most preferred

4-41

Common Measurement Paths

Customer Metrics Pathway Unit Metrics Pathway Cash-flow Metrics Pathway Brand Metrics Pathway

4-42

Figure 4.2 Marketing Measurement Pathways

4-43

Figure 4.3 Example of a Marketing Dashboard

4-44

The Measures of Market Demand

Potential Market Target Market

Available Market Penetrated Market

4-45

Vocabulary for Demand Measurement

Market demand Market forecast Market potential Company demand Company sales forecast Company sales potential

4-46

Figure 4.4 Ninety Types of Demand Measurement

4-47

Figure 4.5 Market Demand Functions

4-48

Figure 4.5 Market Demand Functions

4-49

Product Penetration Percentage

4-50

How Can We Estimate Current Demand?

Total market potential

Area market potential

Market buildup method Multiple-factor index method
4-51

Table 4.6 Calculating the Brand Development Index (BDI)

4-52

Estimating Future Demand

Survey of Buyers Intentions Composite of Sales Force Opinions Expert Opinion Past-Sales Analysis Market-Test Method

4-53

Marketing Debate
What is the best type of marketing research? Take a position: 1. Marketing research should be quantitative. or

2. Marketing research should be qualitative.

4-54

Marketing Discussion

When was the last time you participated in a survey? How helpful do you think the information you provided was? Could the research have been done differently?

4-55