C

Japanese Yen (Monthly)

<B> <D>

< E >?
B
<C>
<A>

One of the difficult aspects with the long term count on the Yen is resolving the initial huge drop down, the <A>
wave here. It is highly unlikely that the steep and sharp decline was the entirety of a “correction.” It had to be only
the initial wave down of a more complex and enduring correction. So what might it be? The count presented here
“seems” like a possibility. The idea here would be that we saw some sort of triangle down off the 1995 peak and
now we’re launching much higher in a C-Wave. This count, however, is very unsatisfying. A key feature of a
triangle is a Fibonacci relationship between the alternating waves. There are no such relationships here, so I must
dismiss this model.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 C
Japanese Yen (Monthly)

<B>

<D>

<E>
B
<C>

<A>

If there is a Triangle taking shape, it probably looks something like this. Here is the case for the Yen carving out a
massive multi-decade triangle that will correct the Cycle high that was seen in 1995. The move from 19831995
was 12.5 Year long wave. Given that duration, it would not be unexpected to see a 2025 year long B-Wave
(161.8%200% of the duration of A-Wave). From a trading perspective, this means a very difficult environment
for anyone looking for a long term “trend.” The coming waves <C>, <D> and <E> will all be “corrective” in nature,
which means a lot of choppy and unpredictable price behavior for the next 10 years!

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Japanese Yen (Weekly) This would be the detailed count that supports the Triangle model on the previous page. The
<B> Wave here has become so powerful and enduring, we can expect a <C> Wave that will
Supercycle High? take seven years to complete [(<A>+<B>)/2] and should be a “corrective” structure. The
A target would be the .8000 zone as the 61.8% of <A>=<C>.

<B>
-Y-
(C)

-W- (A)
(A)
(C)
“c”
“5”
“3”
b
“a”

“1” “4” (B)

a “x”

“2”
“b” c -X- <C>
“w”

“y”
(B)

<A>

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Japanese Yen (Monthly) - A “Diametric” Unfolding?

-E-
<B>
-G-
C
-A- -C-

-F-
-D-

-B-
<A>

<C>
B
One of the difficult things about the preceding count is that NONE of the waves since the 1995 peak can be ‘easily’
counted as “impulsive.” Some of them can be ‘twisted’ a bit to be interpreted as impulsive, or five wave moves (i.e.
the -C- wave), but it’s challenging. So, perhaps it’s useful to think about the “unorthodox” corrections that have
been introduced before. We may be witnessing one of those “diametric” corrections. It’s a potentially more
bearish outcome because it would set the stage a more dramatic <C> wave decline, something not called for under
the Triangle scenario from the previous pages.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. This report is technical
commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading
Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author’s interpretation of technical analysis. The
author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions opposite of
what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in this commentary is taken from
sources the author believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy
or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading
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