The first impression of this chart is one of “I’ve fallen and

cannot get up.” This was a dramatic 87% collapse in a very Arch Coal (Weekly)
short period of time. The move off the lows has so far been
uninspiring and “corrective” in a nature. It’s interesting that ACI
has failed to best the 23.6%* retracement, which also aligns
with a classic chart resistance/support zone dating back to
2006 and 2007.

For Arch Coal, there is a clear area of

resistance between 26.23 and 27.76
that must be cleared before this stock
can really take off.

27.76

*23.6% is the Sq.Root of 61.8%

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Arch Coal (Daily) ~ Log Scale Support and Resistance

Whenever a stock or a market sees the kind of enormous drop seen by ACI, it’s good to observe it through the
lens of a log chart. The bounce from 10.43 looks a little more impressive. The key Fibonacci retracement
levels of 50% and 61.8% (in log terms) come in at a 28.41 and 36, respectively. So, picking up from the
previous page, we should include $28.41 as part of the “zone of resistance.” If ACI, can clear 28.41, a further
rally to $36.00 would seem likely for a 27% gain.

19.86

ACI Longs (Bulls) should consider 19.86 as support.

There is classic chart support/resistance at that level
and it also coincides with the 38.2% retrace of the
10.43 entire move up from 10.43

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Arch Coal (Daily Log Scale) ~ Elliott Wave Count
(B)
This would be the bearish interpretation of the price action and it is my preferred
“c”
model. It does count out quite well as a completed “zig-zag” correction. The “c” was 5
equal to “a” in % terms. In terms of duration, the “c” was (“a”+”b”)/2. Also, the 25.86
proposed (B) wave has now been twice as long as the initial (A) wave down, so this 3
corrective action has met some good duration targets for a (B) wave.
R. Shoulder?

L. Shoulder?
“a”
5
Head?
b
-c- -2-
1 4
3 -b-

-a- -1- H&S Target =~$17.50

1
-4- 2

4 -a-
-3-

-5-
-b- c
“b”
-c-
a It will take a break below 19.86 to buttress this bearish case. It would
2 also be nice to see a “five wave” development from the peak, which is not
yet evident. If a (B) wave did conclude at 25.86, then the downside
targets would be $7.50 for a 61.8% of (A)=(C) in log terms, or $3.36 for
10.43 (A)=(C) in log terms.
(A)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Arch Coal (Daily Log Scale) ~ The Alternative Bullish Model

This would be the alternative bullish case for ACI, that it’s in the first stages of a “c”
wave coming out of a triangle “b” wave. It’s tough to get behind this model because
how long this wave-2 is taking relative to wave-1. 1

“a”
5
b
-c- 2
d
3 -b-

-a-
1
e
“b”

4 -a-

-b-
-c-
a
2
It would take a break below $19.46, the 61.8% of wave-1, to completely
discredit this model.

10.43
(A)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Arch Coal (Daily) ~ Exponential Fibonacci Moving Averages (55, 89, 144, 233)

Presented here are some exponential moving averages on ACI. This is actually
an interesting moment for the stock because all of the “faster” averages are
close to breaking above the 233d EMA. According to some technicians, this
would be a bullish signal and a longer term “buy” signal. A break down below
the 55d EMA at 20.46 would look bearish form this perspective.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. This report is technical
commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading
Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author’s interpretation of technical analysis. The
author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions opposite of
what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in this commentary is taken from
sources the author believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy
or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading
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