Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Surma
Cement Ltd.
Financial Statement
Analysis and Valuation
Company
description
Company
products
Supercrete
- Early strength and setting
Powercrete
- Extra fitness
Industry Structure
Industry
structure
Local companies
Multinational
companies
Marketing
mechanis
m
Dividend
policy
Distinguishable
feature
Strength
Strong backward linkage
Merger agreement with Holcim
100% capacity utilization
Weakness
Accumulated loss
Marketing effort
Opportunity
Create monopoly
Positive earnings expectations
Threat
Homogenous product
Change in regulatory laws
Rise in LIBOR rate
fluctuation in foreign currency rate
LAFSURCEML
Particulars
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
17759.37
17203.78
17739.47
18294.60
18369.69
17823.64
1472.78
2218.13
2083.11
2286.23
3283.96
4266.45
16286.60
14985.65
15656.37
16008.37
15085.73
13557.19
70.78
87.84
175.33
264.78
153.68
1203.69
12931.10
10642.60
13063.22
9821.17
6858.67
3716.33
12860.32
10554.77
12887.89
9556.39
6704.98
2512.64
3426.27
4430.88
2768.48
6451.98
8380.75
11044.54
16286.60
0.00
14985.65
0.00
15656.37
0.00
16008.37
0.00
15085.73
0.00
13557.19
0.00
Total equity
Total Net financial obligation
and equity
MISMatch
MICEMENT
Particulars
Total operating assets
Total operating liabilities
Net operating asset
Total financial assets
Total financial lilabilities
Net financial obligation
Total shareholder's equity
Total Net financial obligation and equity
2010
2040.7
6
755.36
1285.3
9
241.68
191.07
(50.60)
1336.0
0
1285.3
9
2011
2012
2013
3944.46
797.05
6472.67
1054.69
6193.54
728.61
3147.41
3060.00
1178.91
(1881.08)
5417.98
3448.81
3465.91
17.10
5464.93
3589.86
3460.39
(129.47)
5028.49
5400.88
5594.40
3147.41
5417.98
5464.93
Particulars
Operating assets
Property, Plant & Equipment
Intangible assets
Deffered income tax assets
Inventories
Trade receivables
Advances, deposits and
prepayments
Cash
Total Operating assets
MICEMEN
T
Operating assets
71.61% Property, plant and equipment
5.54% Capital work in progress
0.00% Investment in Associate Companies
8.94% Inventories
4.49% Trade receivables
9.42% Other receivables
0.00% Advance, deposit & prepayments
100.00% Advance income tax
Cash
Total operating assets
Observati
on
LAFSURCEML has higher property, plant and equipment
MICEMENT has higher trade receivables
65.92%
1.49%
0.58%
6.99%
10.78%
1.77%
3.73%
7.99%
0.75%
100.00%
LAFSURCEML
Operating Liabilities
Deferred income tax liabilities
Contribution to employee benefits
Provisions
Trade payables
Other payables
Current tax liabilities
Operating liabilities
Operating Liabilities
28.70% Liabilities for gratuity and WPPF
3.23% Liabilities for gratuity
0.54% Deferred tax liability
53.15% Trade payables
10.31% Other payables
4.06% Provision for tax liabilities
100.00% Liabilities for WPPF
Total operating liabilities
Observati
on
LAFSURCEML has higher trade payables and employee
related liabilities
0.00%
1.90%
31.33%
18.79%
8.92%
33.01%
6.05%
100.00%
Financial assets
Derivative
instrument
Cash equivalents
Total Financial
assets
Observati
on
Cash equivalents is the only financial assets of
LAFSURCEML
MICEMENT
78%
3%
19%
100%
105.15%
-9.02%
0.00%
3.87%
Shareholders' Equity
Share capital
Share premium
Retained earnings
Revaluation reserve
MICEMEN
T
26.54%
52.85%
16.67%
3.94%
100.00%
100.00%
Non-controlling interents
0.00%
Total equity
100.00%
Observati
on
LAFSURCEML has negative retained earnings and minority
interest
LAFSURCEM
L
Financial liabilities
Derivative instruments-liabilities
Current portion of long-term debt
Short-term debt
Long term debt
Derivative instruments
Total Financial obligations
Finacial liabilities
Long term borrowing net off current
1.30% maturity
11.01% Current portion of long term borrowings
74.32% Short term loan
13.37% Payable to IPO applicants
0.00% Unclaimed dividend
100.00% Total financial liabilities
Observati
on
LAFSURCEML has higher long term debt
MICEMEN
T
41.95%
14.45%
42.95%
0.37%
0.28%
100.00%
Trend analysis
LAFSURCEML
Particulars
Property, Plant & Equipment
Intangible assets
Deffered income tax assets
Inventories
Trade receivables
Advances, deposits and prepayments
Cash
Operating assets
2008
14961.78
217.34
81.77
1092.18
703.93
701.65
0.73
17759.37
2009
98%
104%
0%
115%
55%
95%
60%
97%
2010
96%
561%
0%
105%
19%
123%
109%
100%
32.62
843.43
594.10
2.63
1472.78
1.96
68.82
70.78
79.69
1717.61
4728.87
6404.93
12931.10
5806.87
(2532.29)
0.40
150.93
3425.91
0.37
3426.27
138%
140%
102%
48%
151%
44%
126%
124%
1%
101%
89%
73%
82%
100%
61%
105%
106%
129%
96%
129%
172%
173%
66%
48%
141%
73%
253%
248%
23%
117%
134%
74%
101%
100%
125%
111%
90%
81%
99%
81%
2011
92%
595%
0%
144%
76%
154%
70%
103%
2012
89%
546%
0%
152%
101%
206%
66%
103%
2013
85%
454%
0%
146%
114%
239%
98%
100%
241%
349%
212%
231%
59%
80%
2364%
4397%
155%
223%
1013%
0%
356%
223%
374%
217%
54%
10%
161%
165%
66%
65%
61%
15%
76%
53%
199%
200%
212%
138%
9506% #VALUE!
131%
178%
188%
245%
83%
63%
188%
245%
423%
269%
74%
6591%
290%
0%
1749%
1701%
61%
24%
58%
8%
29%
200%
39%
0%
283%
322%
32%
322%
LAFSURCEML
Decrease
Decrease
Decrease
Decrease
in
in
in
in
Trend analysis
MICEMENT
Particulars
Property, plant and equipment
Capital work in progress
Investment in Associate Companies
Inventories
Trade receivables
Other receivables
Advance, deposit & prepayments
Advance income tax
Cash
Total operating assets
Liabilities for gratuity and WPPF
Deferred tax liability
Trade payables
Other payables
Provision for tax liabilities
Liabilities for WPPF
Total operating liabilities
Cash equivalent
Current account with associate companies
Total financial assets
Long term borrowing net off current maturity
Current portion of long term borrowings
Short term loan
Total financial liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Share capital
Retained earnings
Revaluation reserve
Total shareholders' equity
2010
1069.10
78.07
2.50
352.65
316.07
4.81
48.67
160.76
60.18
2092.81
2.45
48.85
359.12
28.59
316.36
2011
105%
1426%
808%
167%
109%
6%
563%
201%
272%
188%
100%
113%
31%
135%
175%
2012
259%
1749%
1060%
125%
239%
1272%
566%
446%
101%
309%
1548%
303%
41%
166%
210%
2013
382%
118%
1440%
123%
211%
2272%
475%
308%
78%
296%
0%
467%
38%
227%
76%
755.36
52.05
189.63
189.63
15.81
12.82
162.45
191.07
106%
5195%
188%
1614%
3249%
203%
374%
617%
140%
5461%
271%
1819%
11459%
2232%
832%
1814%
96%
5396%
364%
1893%
9184%
3902%
915%
1811%
700.00
364.50
271.50
1336.00
143%
220%
99%
376%
193%
239%
82%
404%
212%
256%
81%
419%
MICEMENT
Decrease in cash
Decrease in revaluation reserve
LAFSURCEML
Particulars
Revenue
Cost of sales
Gross Margin
Total core operating expense
Net operating tax
core operating income after
tax
Total unusual items
Net fiancial expense after tax
Total comprehensive income
Comprehensive income to
common
2008
2009
2010
2011
6211.94
7543.73
5655.37
(3712.60)
2499.34
(459.79)
(735.14)
(4658.21)
2885.51
(552.47)
(706.31)
(5077.64)
577.74
(1693.03)
15.05
2012
10640.0
6098.48
6
(6450.94
(5538.14)
)
560.34 4189.12
(353.45) (853.03)
(585.79) (881.98)
2013
11330.3
7
(6627.04
)
4703.34
(717.63)
(881.43)
1304.40
4.02
(1127.87)
180.55
1626.73
9.02
(631.17)
1004.58
(1100.24)
(42.57)
(519.60)
(1662.40)
180.53
1004.54
(1662.43)
MICEMENT
Particulars
Sales Revenue
Cost of sales
Gross profit
Total core operating expense
Tax on operating revenue
Operating income after tax
Other income after tax
Net financial (expense )income after tax
Total comprehensive income
2010
3127.35
(2425.81)
701.55
(130.62)
(210.14)
360.79
6.47
(35.15)
332.11
2011
4022.27
(3254.01)
768.26
(191.66)
(216.20)
360.40
142.55
(67.01)
435.94
2012
5657.60
(4911.28)
746.32
(208.61)
(127.43)
416.59
20.18
129.00
565.76
2013
6829.70
(5681.66)
1148.04
(369.62)
(190.09)
597.82
13.42
54.14
665.37
Particulars
Core Operating Revenue
Revenue
Cost of sales
Gross Margin
LAFSURCEML
100%
-58%
42%
Particulars
Core operating revenue
Sales Revenue
Cost of sales
Gross profit
Share of profit from
associates
Total core operating revenue
Observati
on
LAFSURCEML has Low cost of sales
MICEMENT
100%
-83%
17%
0%
17%
LAFSURCEML
Core Operating Expense
-7%
-1%
0%
-2%
2%
-6%
-3%
-5%
35%
-6%
-2%
-8%
27%
12%
-3%
0%
-3%
9%
0%
9%
Observati
on
0%
Actuarial loss
Exchange differences on translating foreign
operation
Non-controlling interest- currency transition
adjustment
0%
1%
Observati
on
1%
0%
28%
MICEMENT
LAFSURCEML
Core financing expense
MICEMENT
-7% Financial income(expenses)
1%
0% tax 27.5%
0%
Net financial (expense )income
-7% after tax
1%
Tax 27.5%
-2%
-5%
24%
Minority interest
Comprehensive income to common
0%
24% Total comprehensive income
Observati
on
10%
Trend analysis
LAFSURCEML
Particulars
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
6211.94
(3712.60)
2499.34
(411.53)
(131.58)
121%
125%
115%
105%
95%
91%
137%
23%
83%
71%
98%
149%
22%
91%
52%
171%
174%
168%
165%
116%
182%
179%
188%
179%
116%
83.31
(459.79)
2039.54
(307.33)
(427.81)
(735.14)
1304.40
6% -1509%
108%
-25%
120%
368%
77%
186%
114%
-55%
10%
164%
152%
-69%
-33%
213%
56%
46%
160%
53%
96%
-2%
80%
120%
125%
-84%
-29%
188%
224.30
- 1538.33 1769.78
4.02
% 596.94%
%
%
208%
156%
195%
218%
49%
120%
238%
3942.56
%
4.02
224% -1059%
1600%
1308.42
125%
-87%
-24%
(1556.24)
61%
46%
160%
0.55 14226%
494%
90%
(1555.68) 55.96% 46.07% 160.37%
(427.81)
56%
46%
160%
(1127.87) 55.96% 46.07% 160.37%
180.55
1874%
193%
53%
138%
53.26%
53%
53.26%
2928%
246%
50%
390%
49.49%
49%
49.49%
556%
-921% -1176% 1068%
1475%
179.17
(0.02)
% 108.33% 179.17% 154.17% 116.67%
556.44
- 1176.21 1068.38 1475.53
180.53
% 920.87%
%
%
%
LAFSURCEML
Fluctuation in sales revenue
Fluctuation in general and administrative expenses
Fluctuation in sales and marketing expenses
Trend analysis
MICEMENT
Particulars
Sales Revenue
Cost of sales
Gross profit
Total core operating revenue
Other operating income/(loss)
Administrative expenses
Selling and distribution expenses
Total core operating expense
Core operating income before tax
Tax reported
tax on financial items
Tax on operating income
Operating income after tax
Other income after tax
Total operating income after tax
Financial income(expenses)
tax 27.5%
Net financial (expense )income after tax
Total comprehensive income
2010
3127.35
2011
-2.96%
2012
5.69%
2013
2.39%
(2425.81)
701.55
701.55
44.17
(47.72)
(127.07)
(130.62)
570.93
(196.81)
(13.33)
(210.14)
360.79
6.47
367.26
(48.48)
(13.33)
134%
110%
110%
142%
214%
120%
147%
101%
97%
191%
103%
100%
2203%
137%
191%
191%
202%
106%
107%
145%
265%
115%
160%
95%
90%
-367%
61%
115%
312%
119%
-367%
-367%
234%
164%
165%
-31%
327%
157%
283%
138%
107%
-154%
90%
166%
207%
166%
-154%
-154%
(35.15)
332.11
191%
131%
-367%
170%
-154%
200%
Mismatch
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1784.23
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
MICEMENT
Decrease in tax on operating income
Profitability analysis
LAFSURCEML
Particulars
ROCE before minority interest
RNOA
Flev
NBC
ROOA
OLLEV
Profit margin
ATO
2008
5%
8%
3.753
-9%
7%
9%
21%
38%
2009
26%
10%
2.980
-5%
9%
12%
22%
50%
2010
-46%
-7%
3.256
-4%
-7%
14%
-20%
36%
2011
-46%
-2%
2.434
-16%
-2%
14%
-5%
38%
2012
26%
16%
1.096
-7%
13%
18%
24%
71%
2013
27%
22%
0.475
-12%
17%
26%
28%
84%
MICEMENT
Particulars
ROCE
RNOA
Flev
NBC
ROOA
OLLEV
2010
25%
29%
-0.038
69%
17%
0.588
2011
14%
13%
-0.161
13%
10%
0.218
2012
11%
9%
-0.127
-19%
7%
0.184
2013
12%
11%
-0.010
-96%
9%
0.164
Profit margin
ATO
12%
243%
13%
105%
8%
121%
9%
126%
Profitability analysis
ROCE
MICEMENT
LAFSURCEML
ROCE
2009
2010
2011
0.26
0.27
2012
2013
0.25
0.14
0.11
-0.46
0.12
-0.46
2010
2011
2012
2013
Profitability analysis
RNOA
MICEMENT
LAFSURCEML
RNOA
RNOA
0.22
0.29
0.16
0.1
0.08
0.13
0.09
2008
2009
2010
-0.07
-0.02
2011
2012
0.11
2013
2010
2011
2012
2013
Profitability analysis
ROOA
MICEMENT
LAFSURCEML
ROOA
ROOA
0.17
0.17
0.13
0.07
2008
0.1
0.09
0.09
0.07
2009
2010
-0.07
2011
2012
2013
-2%
2010
2011
2012
2013
Profitability analysis
Flev
MICEMENT
LAFSURCEML
Flev
Flev
-0.01
2010
3.75
2.98
2011
2012
-0.04
3.26
2.43
-0.13
1.10
0.47
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-0.16
2013
Profitability analysis
NBC
MICEMENT
LAFSURCEML
NBC
2008
2009
-0.05
2010
2011
NBC
2012
2013
-0.04
0.69
-0.07
-0.09
-0.12
2010
0.13
2011
2012
2013
-19%
-0.16
-0.96
NBC
Profitability analysis
Spread
MICEMENT
LAFSURCEML
Spread
Spread
1.08
0.08
0.1
0.05
2008
-1%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0.29
2010
-0.12
-0.41
-0.19
2011
0
2012
2013
Profitability analysis
ATO
MICEMENT
LAFSURCEML
ATO
ATO
0.84
2.43
0.71
0.5
0.38
0.36
1.05
0.38
2010
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2011
1.21
1.26
2012
2013
MICEMENT
LAFSURCEML
Profit margin
Profit margin
0.21
0.24
0.22
0.28
0.12
0.13
0.09
0.08
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-5%
-0.2
2010
2011
2012
2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
6% -150%
31%
103%
-4%
-12%
-97%
38%
49%
0%
18%
-53%
-7%
54%
-5%
MICEMENT
Particulars
2011
2012
2013
Change in ROCE
6%
-9%
3%
Change in RNOA
7%
-6%
1%
-2%
-4%
3%
Change in financing
2010
LAFSURCEML
Proforma Consolidated Income Statement
Particulars
Revenue
Cost of sales
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Gross Profit
General and administrative
expenses
4703.34
6445.86
(738.67)
(152.43)
(248.16)
(349.09)
(491.08)
173.47
(478.74)
(673.46)
Operating income
3985.71
4724.23
6645.77
Finance cost
(772.05)
Financial income
3.69
(898.07)
2.15
2.46
2.82
3215.81
3944.40
5594.48
2546.10
2903.62
4118.31
5826.99
2.19
2.50
3.55
5.02
EPS
3.23
(690.82)
4.22
9.23
LAFSURCEML
Calculation of WACC
Risk-free rate
0.0725
Market return
Beta
0.15
0.96
Cost of equity
Cost of debt
Weight of equity
Weight of debt
0.15
0.18
0.91
0.09
WACC
0.15
LAFSURCEML
Residual earning Model
Particulars
EPS
DPS
BPS (BPS t-1 +EPS t - DPS t)
2013
2.19
0
9.510
ROCE
Discount rate
1.150
2016
5.02
0
20.574
2017
7.09
0
27.660
2018
9.23
0
36.895
1.323
1.521
1.749
2.011
PV of RE
8.833250
7
36.20490
8
CV
PV of CV
2015
3.55
0
15.556
RE
Total PV of RE
2014
2.50
0
12.010
18.00023
8
LAFSURCEML
Abnormal earning growth model
Particulars
DPS
EPS
Dividends reinvested
Cum dividend earnings (Dividends
reinvested+EPS)
2013
0
2.19
2015
0
3.55
0
2016
0
5.02
0
2017
0
7.09
0
2018
0
9.23
0
3.55
5.02
7.09
9.23
2.88
4.08
5.77
8.15
0.67
0.94
1.32
1.08
42%
41%
41%
30%
2014
0
2.50
Discount rate
1.150
1.323
1.521
1.749
0.58337 0.71028 0.86595 0.61998
59
4
98
6
PV of AEG
2.77960
57
Total PV of AEG
7.66509
66
CV
4.38254
39
PV of CV
Total earning to be capitalized
9.66
Capitalization rate
0.15
64.415388
LAFSURCEML
Relative Valuation Model
EPS
2.19
Sector P/E*
18.56
LAFSURCEML
Free cash flow valuation Model
Particulars
2013
FCF
2015
2016
2017
2018
CV
DR
1.150
PV FCF
1.323
1.521
1.749
2.011
PV of CV
Total PV of FCF
2014
55219.7
4
Outstading share
1161374
47.55
Summary Valuation
Summary of Valuation
64.42
36.34
40.65
47.55
47.24