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Lecture 6: Binomial Distribution

and Continuous Distributions

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The Binomial Distribution
 The binomial experiment can result in only
one out of two outcomes.
 Typical cases where the binomial
experiment applies:
– A coin flipped results in heads or tails
– An election candidate wins or loses
– An employee is male or female
– A car uses 87octane gasoline, or another
gasoline. 2
Binomial experiment
– There are n trials (n is finite and fixed).
– Each trial can result in a success or a failure.
– The probability p of success is the same for all
the trials.
– All the trials of the experiment are independent.
 Binomial Random Variable
– The binomial random variable counts the
number of successes in n trials of the binomial
experiment.
– By definition, this is a discrete random variable.
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 Example 6.9
– 5% of a catalytic converter production run is
defective.
– A sample of 3 converter s is drawn. Find the
probability distribution of the number of defectives.
e conditions required for the binomial experiment ar
– Solution
 A converter can be either defective or good.
 There is a fixed finite number of trials (n=3)

 We assume the converter state is independent on one

another.
 The probability of a converter being defective does not

change from converter to converter (p=.05).


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– Let X be the binomial random variable
indicating the number of defectives.
– Define a “success” as “a converter is found to
be defective”.
3!
P(X = 0) = p(0) = (.05)0(.95)3−0 = .8574
0!(3− 0)!
3! X P(X)
P(x = 1) = p(1) = (.05)1(.95)3−1 = .1354 0 .8574
1!(3− 1)! 1 .1354
3! 2 .0071
P(x = 2) = p(2) = (.05)2(.95)3−2 = .0071 3 ..0001
2!(3− 2)!
3!
P(x = 3) = p(3) = (.05)3(.95)3−3 = .0001
3!(3− 3)!

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 Mean and variance of binomial random
variable
E(X) = µ = np
V(X) = σ 2 = np(1-p)
 Example 6.10
– Records show that 30% of the customers in a
shoe store make their payments using a credit
card.
– This morning 20 customers purchased shoes.
– Use Table 1 of Appendix B to answer some
questions stated in the next slide.
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– What is the probability that at least 12
customers used a credit card?
 This is a binomial experiment with n=20 and p=.30.

p
k .01……….. 30
0
. P(At least 12 used credit card)
. = P(X>=12)=1-P(X<=11)
11 .995 = 1-.995 = .005

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– What is the probability that at least 3 but not
more than 6 customers used a credit card?

p
k .01……….. 30
0 P(3<=X<=6)=
2 .035 P(X=3 or 4 or 5 or 6)
. =P(X<=6) -P(X<=2)
6 .608 =.608 - .035 = .573

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– What is the expected number of customers who
used a credit card?
 E(X) = np = 20(.30) = 6
– Find the probability that exactly 14 customers
did not use a credit card.
 Let Y be the number of customers who did not use a
credit card.
P(Y=14) = P(X=6) = P(X<=6) - P(x<=5) = .608 - .416 = .192
– Find the probability that at least 9 customers
did not use a credit card.
 Let Y be the number of customers who did not use a
credit card.
P(Y>=9) = P(X<=11) = .995
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Continuous Probability
Distributions
A continuous random variable has an
uncountably infinite number of values in the
interval (a,b).
 The probability that a continuous variable X
will assume any particular value is zero.
The probability of each value
1/4 + 1/4 + 1/4 + 1/4 = 1
1/3 + 1/3 + 1/3 = 1
1/2 + 1/2 = 1

0 1/3 1/2 2/3 1


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 To calculate probabilities we define a
probability density function f(x).
 The density function satisfies the following
Whole
conditions P(a<x<b) Area = 1
– f(x) is non-negative,
a b
– The total area under the curve representing f(x)
equals 1.
 The probability that x falls between a and b
is found by calculating the area under the
graph of f(x) between a and b.
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Uniform Distribution
– A random variable X is said to be uniformly
distributed if its density function is
1
f(x) = a ≤ x ≤ b.
b− a
Theexpected valueandthevariance oftheuniform
distributi
onis
a+ b (b− a)2
E(X)= V(X) =
2 12

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 Example 7.1
– The time elapses between the placement of an
order and the delivery time is uniformly
distributed between 100 and 180 minutes.
 Define the graph and the density function.
 What proportion of orders takes between 2 and 2.5

hours to deliver?

f(x) = 1/80 100<=x<=180


P(120<= x<=150) = (150-120)(1/80) = .375

1/80

x
100 120 150 180
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