CPAC Straw Poll

February 25-28, 2015

Kellyanne Conway

Methodology

The straw poll was available to CPAC attendees from Wednesday,

February 25 to Saturday, February 28.

Participants could complete the straw poll through the official

CPAC App on their mobile devices. In addition, a booth with six
straw poll stations was available to participants at the event.

Each attendee was assigned a unique, five digit PIN code with
their registration materials. Respondents were required to enter
this PIN Code to complete the straw poll, ensuring that only CPAC
registrants could participate.

N=3007 straw poll participants

2015 CPAC Straw Poll: Results & Analysis

Who Voted in 2015 Straw Poll?

Type of CPAC registrant

42%

45%

INDIVIDUAL
ASSOCIATED WITH CPAC
PARTICIPATING
ORGANIZATION
CPAC PARTICIPATING
ORGANIZATION
STUDENT

4% 8%

2015 CPAC Straw Poll: Results & Analysis

Demographics
Age
37%
63%

CPAC attendees from all 50

states participated in the straw
poll.

UNDER 18

3%

18 TO 25

47%

26 TO 40

18%

41 TO 55

15%

56 TO 65

10%

OVER 65

7%

2015 CPAC Straw Poll: Results & Analysis

Issue Priorities
Which of the following groups of issues are most important to you
when deciding whom to support as the Republican nominee for
President in 2016?
52%

29%
7%

9%

3%

2015 CPAC Straw Poll: Results & Analysis

Obamacare
Which of these approaches to the health care law do you prefer: (ROTATED
TOP-TO-BOTTOM AND BOTTOM-TO-TOP)
83%

11%

3%

1%

3%

2015 CPAC Straw Poll: Results & Analysis

Illegal Immigration
Thinking about illegal immigration, which of the following views is closest
to your own?

37%
ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS SHOULD BE DEPORTED BACK TO
THEIR HOME COUNTRIES AND NOT ALLOWED TO APPLY FOR U.S.
CITIZENSHIP
27%
ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS SHOULD BE ENCOURAGED TO
RETURN TO
THEIR HOME COUNTRY BY ALLOWING THEM TO
APPLY FOR U.S. CITIZENSHIP WHEN THEY GET HOME
18%
ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO STAY IN
THE U.S. LEGALLY AND APPLY FOR CITIZENSHIP
11%
ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO STAY IN
THE U.S. LEGALLY, BUT NOT ALLOWED TO APPLY FOR
CITIZENSHIP

7%
DO NOT KNOW/CANNOT JUDGE
2015 CPAC Straw Poll: Results & Analysis

Obamas Amnesty
Do you agree or disagree that Congress should use its spending power to
defund
Obamas executive amnesty on illegal immigration?
TOTAL VERY/
SOMEWHAT AGREE: 77%

18%

59%

TOTAL VERY/
SOMEWHAT DISAGREE:
15%

7%
8%
TOTAL AGREE

TOTAL DISAGREE

2015 CPAC Straw Poll: Results & Analysis

Energy Policy
Which of the following is the best argument for a more free-market energy policy? You may select more than one response. (ROTATE ANSWER CHOICES)

STIMULATING ECONOMIC GROWTH & JOBS IN STATES

37%

MORE DEVELOPMENT OF U.S. SOURCES

28%

LESS DEPENDENCY ON FOREIGN OIL

24%

LOWERING PRICES OF HOME HEATING AND FUEL

6%

DO NOT KNOW/CANNOT JUDGE

5%

2015 CPAC Straw Poll: Results & Analysis

Foreign Policy
Thinking about national security, which approach is most effective way to protect America

12%

3% 16%

69%

A STRONG INTERVENTIONIST
FOREIGN POLICY
PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH:
BUILDING A STRONG MILITARY THAT
IS USED SPARINGLY WHEN U.S.
INTERESTS ARE AT STAKE
SELECTIVE DISENGAGEMENT FROM
WORLD AFFAIRS
DO NOT KNOW/CANNOT JUDGE

2015 CPAC Straw Poll: Results & Analysis

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NSA Data Collection

Do you support or oppose the collection of phone data on U.S. citizens by the
National Security Agency for the purpose of preventing terrorist attacks and
tracking those who may have links to terrorism?
TOTAL VERY/
SOMEWHAT OPPOSE:
65%

TOTAL VERY/
SOMEWHAT SUPPORT: 32%

44%

22%
10%
TOTAL SUPPORT

21%
TOTAL OPPOSE

2015 CPAC Straw Poll: Results & Analysis

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Marijuana
Which of the following statements most closely reflects
your view on the legalization of marijuana?
41%

26%

27%

7%

2015 CPAC Straw Poll: Results & Analysis

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Abortion Identification
2-Point Abortion ID

6-Point Abortion ID

Do you consider yourself

(ROTATED) pro-life or
pro-choice on the issue
of abortion?

Which of the following statements best describes your own position on the issue
of abortion? (ROTATED TOP-TO-BOTTOM AND
BOTTOM-TO-TOP)

74% PRO-LIFE

66% TOTAL PRO-LIFE (NET)

20% ABORTION SHOULD BE PROHIBITED IN ALL CIRCUMSTANCES
18% ABORTION SHOULD BE LEGAL ONLY TO SAVE LIFE OF THE MOTHER
30% ABORTION SHOULD ONLY BE LEGAL IN CASES OF RAPE, INCEST OR
TO SAVE THE LIFE OF THE MOTHER

18% PRO-CHOICE

25% TOTAL PRO-CHOICE (NET)

15% ABORTION SHOULD BE LEGAL FOR ANY REASON, BUT NOT AFTER
THE FIRST THREE MONTHS OF PREGNANCY
6% ABORTION SHOULD BE LEGAL FOR ANY REASON, BUT NOT AFTER
THE FIRST SIX MONTHS OF PREGNANCY
4% ABORTION SHOULD BE ALLOWED AT ANY TIME DURING A WOMANS
PREGNANCY AND FOR ANY REASON

2015 CPAC Straw Poll: Results & Analysis

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Job Requirements for

GOP Presidential Nominee
Which of the following is the most important quality for a Republican presidential candidate to possess
11%

ABILITY TO WIN STATES OBAMA WON

ABILITY TO RAISE MONEY

2%
12%

STRONG COMMUNICATION SKILLS

39%

SOLID CONSERVATIVE RECORD

11%

PREVIOUS EXECUTIVE EXPERIENCE

PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE IN ELECTED OFFICE
APPEAL TO INDEPENDENT VOTERS

5%
17%

2015 CPAC Straw Poll: Results & Analysis

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2016 Dealbreakers
Thinking about the 2016 Republican field, which of the following
stances do you consider a deal-breaker meaning, you would not
vote for a candidate who holds that position. (ACCEPTED MULTIPLE
RESPONSES)
40%
35%

37%

31%

32%

18%

2015 CPAC Straw Poll: Results & Analysis

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Common Core
Which of the following best describes your view toward Common Core, a federal education initiative that sets national standards for what students in grades K through 12 should know in math and English?

I WOULD NEVER VOTE FOR A

REPUBLICAN NOMINEE THAT SUPPORTS
COMMON CORE

10%
33%

57%

I MIGHT VOTE FOR A REPUBLICAN

NOMINEE THAT SUPPORTS COMMON
CORE, DEPENDING ON THEIR POSITIONS
TOWARD OTHER ISSUES
DO NOT KNOW/CANNOT JUDGE

2015 CPAC Straw Poll: Results & Analysis

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Three Criteria for being

Included in the CPAC Straw Poll
1.

Hiring staff beyond their normal operations.

2.

Telling donors, supporters or media that they are

seriously considering a presidential run.

3.

Accepting invitations to purely presidential forums in

early primary states (ex. Iowa Freedom Summit)

2015 CPAC Straw Poll: Results & Analysis

17

Republican Nominee
Ballot
Right now, who is your first choice for the Republican nominee for President in 2016?
26%

RAND PAUL

21%

SCOTT WALKER

12%

TED CRUZ

11%

BEN CARSON

8%

JEB BUSH

5%

DONALD TRUMP

4%

RICK SANTORUM
MARCO RUBIO

3%

CARLY FIORINA

3%

CHRIS CHRISTIE

2%

BOBBY JINDAL

1%

RICK PERRY

1%

SARAH PALIN

1%

NOTE: Candidates receiving <1% not

displayed.

2015 CPAC Straw Poll: Results & Analysis

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Second Choice Ballot

And, who is your SECOND choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2016?
19%

SCOTT WALKER

13%

RAND PAUL

12%

TED CRUZ

11%

BEN CARSON

7%

MARCO RUBIO

5%

JEB BUSH
DONALD TRUMP

4%

RICK SANTORUM

4%
5%

CARLY FIORINA
RICK PERRY

3%

CHRIS CHRISTIE

3%

BOBBY JINDAL

3%

NOTE: Candidates receiving <3% not

displayed.

2015 CPAC Straw Poll: Results & Analysis

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First and Second Ballot Choices

Combined
FIRST BALLOT

SECOND BALLOT

COMBO BALLOT

RAND PAUL

26%

16%

42%

SCOTT WALKER

21%

19%

40%

TED CRUZ

12%

12%

24%

BEN CARSON

11%

11%

22%

JEB BUSH

8%

5%

13%

MARCO RUBIO

4%

7%

11%

DONALD TRUMP

4%

4%

8%

RICK SANTORUM

4%

4%

8%

CARLY FIORINA

3%

5%

8%

CHRIS CHRISTIE

2%

3%

5%

RICK PERRY

1%

3%

5%

BOBBY JINDAL

1%

3%

4%

2015 CPAC Straw Poll: Results & Analysis

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