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CHAPTER14
Expectations: The
Basic Tools
Prepared by:
Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano
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Olivier
14-1
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Pt
1
Given 1 r t ( 1 i t ) e , and knowing that e
P t1
(1 e t )
P t1
P e t1 P t
then, the expected rate of inflation equals e
t1
Pt
1 it
Consequently, ( 1 r t )
1 et 1
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rt it
If
If
if
0 it rt
0 it rt
it
rt
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Although the
nominal interest
rate has declined
considerably since
the early 1980s, the
real interest rate
was actually higher
in 2001 than in
1981.
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14-2
Expected Present
Discounted Values
Figure 14 - 2
Computing Present
Discounted Values
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(1 it
(1 it ) 1
(1 i t ) (1 i t1 )
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A General Formula
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1
$V t $ zt
$z
(1 it )
t1
$z
e
(1 i t ) (1 i t1 )
t2
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t1
2 $ z
(1 i )
t2
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1
1
$V t $ z 1
n 1
(
1
i
)
(
1
i
)
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$V t
$z
1
$ z
2 $ z
(1 i )
(1 i )
(1 i )
(1 i )
$z
$V t
i
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t1
$z
e
(1 i t ) (1 i t1 )
t2
$V t
V
Pt
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14-3
r i
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M
U Y L (i)
P
LM
The IS curve is still downward sloping.
The LM curve is upward sloping.
The equilibrium is at the intersection of the IS
curve and the LM curve.
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Figure 14 - 4
Equilibrium Output and
Interest Rates
If r i
r i
If e is c o n s ta n t,
0 r i
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An increase in money
growth increases the
real money stock in the
short run. This increase
in real money leads to
an increase in output
and a decrease in both
the nominal and the real
interest rate.
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i rn g
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An increase in money
growth leads initially to a
decrease in both the real
and the nominal interest
rate. Over time, the real
interest rate returns to its
initial value. The nominal
interest rate converges to a
new higher value, equal to
the initial value plus the
increase in money growth.
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Figure 14 - 7
The 3-Month Treasury
Bill Rate and Inflation
since 1927
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Figure 1
Nominal
Interest Rates
and Inflation:
Latin America,
1992-1993
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Key Terms
discount rate
present discounted value
present value
Fisher effect, Fisher hypothesis
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