Professional Documents
Culture Documents
FINC 800
Professor Ying
Becker
Haitham Alghamdi
Wahida Brithbi
Ahmad Gesa
Dung Nguyen
Company
Background
Overview
Seven locations in Canada, six in England,
three in France, and one in Germany.
Overview
Quality ingredients
40% of their beans are
organically grown
100% of all the meats
from naturally raised
animals
Fast-casual restaurant
Healthy food
Affordable price.
SWOT ANALYSIS
Strength
High quality and healthy food
Weakness
Not fully expanded in the U.S.
Threats
Strong directs competitors: Qdoba, Taco
Bell
Indirect competition from McDonald,
Starbuck, Yum! Brand
Competitors cost of food are lower than
Chipotle
Economic slowdown
Restaurant Industry
Major competitors
9,000,000,000
350,000,000
8,000,000,000
300,000,000
7,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
1,000,000,000
0
250,000,000
200,000,000
150,000,000
100,000,000
50,000,000
0
-50,000,000
Revenues
Net Income
Asset Utilization
Asset Management
2013
Total Asset Turnover
Receivables Turnover
Inventory Turnover
Property Plant & Equip
Turnover
Days Inventory
Cash Conversion Cycle
CMG
MCD
YUM
DRI
1.75
157.5
2
195.5
1
3.51
0.78
20.86
1.48
42.21
140.2
31.83
1.33
109.0
8
17.51
1.11
2.05
1.87
-4.92
2.6
-3.53
11.47 20.85
-29.93 8.93
Profitability Analysis
Profitability Ratios
2013
Sales (Mil)
CMG
MCD
YUM
DRI
3215
28106
13084
8552
ROA % (Net)
ROE % (Net)
ROI % (Operating)
17.81
23.52
38.7
15.51
35.69
20.12
12.32
50.51
24.9
6.4
21.12
11.72
Profitability Analysis
2.00
30.00%
1.80
25.00%
1.60
1.40
20.00%
1.20
Equity Mulitplier
1.00
15.00%
0.80
ROE %
10.00%
0.60
0.40
5.00%
0.20
0.00
2009
2010
2011
2012
0.00%
2013
DUPONT DISAGGREGATION
ANALYSIS
Yea
r
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
Equity
Mulitplier
Profit
Margin
1.37
8.35%
1.38
9.75%
1.37
9.47%
1.35
10.18%
1.32
10.19%
Total Asset RO
Turnover E %
19.4
1.70
1%
23.7
1.76
3%
23.1
1.78
4%
24.2
1.76
0%
23.5
1.75
5%
ROA%
14.20%
17.16%
16.86%
17.91%
17.83%
Financial Ratios
Liquidity Ratios
12/31/2013
12/31/2012
12/31/2011
12/31/2010
12/31/2009
Quick Ratio
3.02
2.62
2.95
2.89
2.69
Current Ratio
3.34
2.93
3.18
3.3
2.91
Current ratio
Quick ratio
COMPANY VALUATION
#
Company
name
1 YUM
Ticker
YUM
2 Burger King
BKW
3 Cosi
COSI
4 Darden
Restaurant
5 Jack in the box
DRI
6 Panera Bread
PNI
JACK
7 Popeyes
PLKI
8 McDonalds
MCD
Average
Bet
a
0.97
0
0.88
9
1.42
7
0.77
4
0.55
8
0.57
8
0.67
7
0.47
9
0.86
WACC
Risk free rate
2.18%
7.50%
0.866
D/V
E/V
Tax rate
40.00%
Cost of debt
0.00%
(1-t)*Cost of debt
0.00%
Cost of equity
8.67%
WACC
8.67%
COMPANY VALUATION
Net Working
Capital
Total Non -cash
Current Assets
% sales
Total Current
Liabilities
% sales
Net Working
Capital
Gross Assets
Accummulated
Depr
NFA
% of Sales
Depreciation
% of NFA
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Horizon
343,104
307,524.47
389,358.76
502,476.30
536,024.56
8.29%
247,847.68
8.29%
376,104.88
8.29%
404,968.06
8.29%
432,006.10
6.20%
$
143,876.00
4.48%
6.68%
59,676.79
6.68%
75,557.17
428,835.9
9
8.29%
345,618.0
5
6.68%
83,217.94
466,663.44
10.67%
199,228
348,718.8
4
8.29%
281,048.0
6
6.68%
67,670.78
6.68%
90,558.56
6.68%
97,508.24
6.68%
104,018.46
1.61%
1.61%
1.61%
1.61%
1.61%
1.61%
1.61%
1,490,635
1,941,272.3
3
653,318.38
2,256,589.
06
796,107.5
3
1,460,481.
53
2,586,224.
41
955,537.42
2,927,154.
90
1,131,131.
96
1,796,022.
94
3,276,665.
07
1,322,215.
63
1,954,449.
44
3,632,402.0
4
1,527,963.5
2
2,104,438.5
2
3,992,391.5
0
1,747,448.3
4
2,244,943.1
6
142,789.1
5
159,429.89
175,594.5
4
191,083.67
205,747.89
219,484.82
527,397
963,238
1,287,953.9
5
8.29%
313,801.59
1,630,686.
99
34.72%
96,054
9.78%
125,921.38
COMPANY VALUATION
(in million)
Sales
% growth
Total costs
% sales
EBITDA
% margin
Forecast period
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
3,726,612.1 4,260,830.62 4,810,550.55 5,369,129.41 5,930,224.02 6,487,982.05 6,877,260.97
6
15.93%
14.34%
12.90%
11.61%
10.45%
9.41%
6.00%
2,748,376.4 3,142,362.59 3,547,781.03 3,959,732.94 4,373,540.21 4,784,886.76 5,071,979.97
7
73.75%
73.75%
73.75%
73.75%
73.75%
73.75%
73.75%
978,236
26.25%
1,118,468
26.25%
1,262,770
26.25%
1,409,396
26.25%
1,556,684
26.25%
1,703,095
26.25%
1,805,281
26.25%
Depreciation
Amortization:
% NFA
126,500.74
144,634.91
163,295.28
182,256.37
201,302.86
220,236.09
233,450.26
EBIT
$851,734.9
6
$973,833.13
Taxes (38%)
Profit After tax
OCF
CapEx
Increase/Decrease in
NWC
323,659.28
528,075.67
654,576.41
457,142.48
-83,924.65
370,056.59
603,776.54
748,411.45
330,115.56
8,594.17
417,800.21
681,674.03
844,969.31
354,158.04
8,843.54
466,313.24
760,826.86
943,083.23
376,194.96
8,986.06
281,358.58
409,701.73
481,967.73
557,902.22
515,044.76
563,486.49
597,295.68
840,336.18
919,372.70
974,535.06
1,041,639.05 1,139,608.79 1,207,985.32
396,114.91
413,889.68
368,607.90
9,026.53
8,972.85
6,262.47
636,497.60
716,746.26
833,114.95
COMPANY VALUATION
Output
Enterprise value
Present value of Free Cash
Flow
Terminal Value
Discount Factor
Present Value of Terminal
Value
Enterprise value
Outstanding shares
Implied share price
Current share price
Percentage overprice
2,149,249,00
0
31,202,807,0
00
0.61
18,946,791,0
00
21,096,040,0
00
31,015,621
680.17
660.55
2.97%
RECOMMENDATION
Short-Term Buy, Long-Term Hold
Current Price: $660.55, Project share
price:680.17
Stable revenue growth in the recent 5 years.
The number of restaurants will still be rising fast
for the next few years
Recognize revenue when food and beverage
products are sold.
Chipotles capital structure, currently, is 100%
equity. Chipotle has a large cash balance and a
strong anticipated operational cash stream in the
future
THANK YOU