Capacity Planning

Forecasting

What is a forecast
Purpose of long term forecasting
Forecasting and re-forecasting
Forecasting File

Cap Plan Overview

What is a Cap Plan

Cap Plan Summary
Opportunity/Risk
Hiring Schedules
Attrition Schedules

AXP Internal
4/4/15

Capacity Planning
WFM Timeline

12 - 18
Months

Capacity
Plan is
created

6 Months

Financial
Plan is
adjusted
to match
Capacity
Plan

30 - 45
days

Short-term
forecast is
created and
discussions
with cap
planners
take place

4-6
weeks

Scheduling
of agents is
completed

Creation of
the DPs
takes place

AXP Internal
4/4/15

Day of

TCC
executes
the plan

Reviewed
day after

MIS data is
recorded

Financial
Plan
Comparison

Capacity Planning-Forecasting Basics

Forecasting
What is a Forecast?
It is what is what is expected to happen based on previous history.

What is the purpose of Forecasting?

To ensure that business service level objectives are met.
To predict call workload and estimate the staff required to answer those calls.
To prepare the corporation for the upcoming period of action.
To provide out business with a plan of action for the month and/or year.

AXP Internal
4/4/15

Capacity Planning-Forecasting Basics

Forecasting
What are the reasons to forecast/re-forecast?
Normal day-to-day operations
New business
Marketing Initiatives
Change in operating hours
Economic state
Increase/Decrease in contact rate
Attrition
Higher/Lower Volume and Handletime
Increase in LOA hours
Any of the above factors can trigger a change in call volume. If volume is lower or
higher than expected, then adjustments to the forecast are made.
AXP Internal
4/4/15

Capacity Planning-Forecasting Basics

Forecasting Spreadsheet
The Forecast
Spreadsheet is used
to contain historical
information needed
to create an
accurate forecast.
Historical
information needed:
Active Accounts
Contact Rate
VRU Details
Call Volume
details
Projects
AXP Internal
4/4/15

Capacity Planning-Forecasting Basics

Forecasting Spreadsheet

Example of
Essbase pull

AXP Internal
4/4/15

Capacity Planning
Capacity Plan
What is a Capacity Plan?

The process of planning, analyzing, sizing, and optimizing resource utilization

to satisfy workload demand in a timely manner and at a reasonable cost.

Why are Capacity Plans created?

To ensure that business service level objectives are met.
To track and manage hiring, site growth and sharing of resources to maximize
company assets and minimize expense.

AXP Internal
4/4/15

Capacity Planning
Capacity Plan
When are Capacity Plans created?
Cap Plans for the upcoming year are completed in 3rd Quarter and
updated as necessary

When are Capacity Plans updated?

Cap Plans are updated monthly with the prior months results, actual
hiring, attrition, headcount, and workspaces

Revisions to the Forecast for the remainder of the year are also
updated monthly

Who reviews the Capacity Plan once it is updated?

The Business Directors each month in the second or third week
Reviewed by each of the Regional Directors and updated to the
Business Performance website

AXP Internal
4/4/15

Capacity Planning
Understanding the Capacity Plan
Capacity Plans contain detailed information about:

Volumes
AHT
Assumptions
Hiring
Attrition
LOAs
Headcount
Facilities

Where are the Capacity Plans stored?

The Business Performance website:

http://bpg.cards.citicorp.com/CapacityPlanning/IndexCapPlan.html

AXP Internal
4/4/15

Capacity Planning
Capacity Plan Components
The primary components that are included in the
Capacity Plan are:
Hiring Summary: A weekly and monthly overview of the annual

hiring

forecast by site and function.

Hiring Details: Used to record, track, and forecast weekly

training attrition by site.

hiring and

Attrition Summary: Overview of attrition for the Business

Attrition Details: Used to record, track, and forecast attrition by site at a weekly
or monthly view.

Headcount Details: Used to track, at a given site, a 12-month

headcount and productive staff available to take handle the workload.

view of

Volume Details: Call volumes, drivers and incremental projects used to track
and forecast monthly requirements.

AXP Internal
4/4/15

10

10

Capacity Planning
Capacity Plan Summary and Reports
What reports and/or areas of focus help to make up
the Capacity Plan Summary?
Volume Details: This takes a look at the projected volume for the entire
portfolio and calculates the combined weighted AHT for the function
by month. It includes a learning curve base handle time for new hires as
well as additional handle time for sales.

Incremental Project File: Forecasts the existing cardmember

activities (ECM) that can potentially drive NIVR & Rep Offered
Volume

Workspace Utilization Analysis: Used to evaluate any opportunity or

risk the organization has with workstations for the group at a given site
given the assumptions booked in the Capacity Plan

AXP Internal
4/4/15

11

11

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan - Table of Contents

AXP Internal
4/4/15

12

12

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model
Capacity Plan - Summary

The Cap Plan

Summary pulls
together on one
page, each of the
individual
components of
the Cap Plan

AXP Internal
4/4/15

13

13

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model
Capacity Plan - Summary

Top Tier

AXP Internal
4/4/15

14

14

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model
Capacity Plan - Summary

Cards

AXP Internal
4/4/15

15

15

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model
Capacity Plan - Summary

Average Actives The average number of active accounts. This number is

obtained from either Finance or MIS. Average actives are used as a driver to
forecast future calls offered.
Calls Offered The Actual/Forecast number of calls offered during the period.
VRU By Pass The number of calls routed out of the VRU. These are included
in the Calls Offered total.
AXP Internal
4/4/15

16

16

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model
Capacity Plan - Summary

Base AHT The number of seconds it takes for an agent to take a call
LC Learning Curve; The number of seconds over the base AHT it takes for a
newly hired employee to complete a call
Leveraging Impact The number seconds over the base AHT it takes for a
contingent employee to complete a call
Combined Weighted AHT Average Handletime for all employees in the function
for the period. AHT is the average length of calls and is measured in seconds
AXP Internal
4/4/15

17

17

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model
Capacity Plan - Summary

Base FTE Required The number of agents required to support call volume. It is
obtained from eWFM, and is calculated using the following metrics: Offered
Volume, Handletime, Shrinkage, Occupancy and the # hours available in the
month.

Staffing Strategy Represents the business strategy to be over or under staffed

to best utilize available resources for the servicing of cardholders. Also helps to
address the fluctuations in volume and provide the required service level
Total Required The total number of agents required to provide the required
Service Level to our Cardmembers. It is the sum of the Base FTE and Staffing
Strategy
AXP Internal
4/4/15

18

18

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model
Capacity Plan - Summary

Total Exit the Business The total number of Associates that left the function
during the period

Exit the Business Those employees that terminate their employment, either
voluntary or involuntary
Training Associates that terminate their employment during training
Transfers Associates that are transferring to another department within the
company. When typically speaking to attrition, transfers are not considered as
attrition
AXP Internal
4/4/15

19

19

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model
Capacity Plan - Summary

New Hires Graduated The number of new hires that graduated and hit the floor
during the month
Total Productive FTEs The total number of productive staff available to take
calls
Base Position The total number of Associates within the group that are
available to assist Cardmembers. It is calculated as the Total Productive Staff
minus the Total Required Staff.
AXP Internal
4/4/15

20

20

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model
Capacity Plan - Summary

Support From
Represents the FTE
equivalent of calls handled
by other groups
Support To Represents
the FTE equivalent of
support provided to other
groups

Net Position Represents the total number of associates across all groups that
are available to assist cardholders. It is calculated as the base position plus
support from, minus support to, plus overtime minus VTO
Net Position w/o Staffing Strategy Indicates what the net position would be
excluding the staffing strategy from the Total Required. The number is carried
forward to the Opportunities and Risks
AXP Internal
4/4/15

21

21

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model
Capacity Plan - Summary

Metrics The actual/forecast operating results for the period

ASA Average length of time in seconds to answer a call

Service Level The % of calls answered within a set number of seconds
Occupancy The % of time the Associates are using AHT compared to the total
time they are signed onto the phone.
Availability The % of time the Associates are signed onto the phone compared to
the total scheduled/paid hours
Shrinkage The inverse of Availability. Calculated as 1 minus the Availability %
Paid Hours Total number of business days in the month times 8 hours
Productivity The Total Calls Offered/Productive
FTE
AXP Internal
4/4/15

22

22

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model
Capacity Plan - Summary

Driver Impacts of FTE The FTE change that results from a 1 second, or 1 %
change in each of the drivers

AXP Internal
4/4/15

23

23

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model
Capacity Plan - Availability

Availability Summary of previous year actuals and current year forecast

AXP Internal
4/4/15

24

24

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan - Opportunities and Risk

What is the Capacity Opportunities/Risks?

A detailed schedule, by business unit, what the upcoming areas of
opportunities/risks are for the department. The Capacity Opportunities/Risk
report is completed monthly in conjunction with the updates made to the
forecast.

What are the main components to view on the capacity

O/R report?
Working Base Position
Working Net Position
Opportunity/(Risk) Position
Potential Management Items

AXP Internal
4/4/15

25

25

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan - Opportunities and Risk

Summarizes any opportunities/risks that may impact the business.

AXP Internal
4/4/15

26

26

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan - Plan vs. Current

The Plan vs. Current report compares the current full year forecast versus what
was initially projected for Plan the previous
year.
AXP Internal
27
4/4/15

27

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan - Prior vs. Current

The Prior vs. Current report compares the current full year forecast versus what
was projected the month before.
AXP Internal
4/4/15

28

28

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model
Capacity Plan Volume Detail

The Volume Detail is a summary by business by site of key call metrics.

AXP Internal
4/4/15

29

29

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model
Capacity Plan Projects

Forecasts activities that can potentially drive volume.

Information is collected from project managers
Assumptions made based on historical programs
AXP Internal
30
Types of activities could include plastics,
conversions,
CIT,
Privacy
notifications
4/4/15

30

Capacity PlanningCapacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan Hiring Schedules

The Hiring section of the Capacity Plan is designed to give an

overview of the annual hiring forecast by Site and by Function. It
consists of 2 primary pages:

The weekly hiring page

The Hiring Summary

The hiring schedule can change frequently, for any of the following
reasons:
Increase/decrease in monthly Base Contact Rate
Marketing initiatives
Attrition
Handle Time changes
LOA increase
Transfers to other departments
Hiring changes have to be reflected in RPS and notifications sent to
the Training and Scheduling departments.
AXP Internal
4/4/15

31

31

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model
Capacity Plan Weekly Hiring

Training Date The start date

is the 1st day of training, usually
a Monday and generally
consists of Orientation.
Available Date The 1st day of
production. May differ by
business based on the length of
training.
Requested The number of
associates requested to be
hired
Started The number of
associates that actually started
the class.

AXP Internal
4/4/15

Graduated The number of

associates that completed the
class and will join production.

32

32

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model
Capacity Plan Weekly Hiring

The monthly roll-up table is

also included on the weekly
hiring sheet.
Internal and External hiring is
separated out, due to the
variations in the length of the
class.
The totals feed to the Staff
Count page, that uses the
weekly totals to calculate the
appropriate FTE lift depending
on the week of graduation.
Actual graduating counts
should be input as soon as the
information is available.
AXP Internal
4/4/15

33

33

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan Combined Hiring

The combined hiring page is a weekly view all sites combined.

AXP Internal
4/4/15

34

34

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan Hiring Summary

A 12 month overview of all hiring byAXP

site.
Internal
4/4/15

35

35

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan Attrition Summary

The Attrition summaries are used to record, track and forecast

attrition for the business unit.
The Attrition summary consist of two tables:
Weekly attrition
Monthly rollup
Attrition should be updated in the cap plan for the month at the
beginning of the following month on the Actual Attrition page. This
number feeds to the Attrition Summary pages.
The attrition data is pulled from the Headcount Database located on
the Capacity Plan2 drive.

AXP Internal
4/4/15

36

36

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan Attrition Actual

Actual number of
agents that have
exited the business
should be entered
here for the month,
at the beginning of
the following
month.
This information is
fed to Weekly
Attrition summary.

AXP Internal
4/4/15

37

37

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan Attrition by Site

Exit the Business Actuals The cell refers to

the Actual Attrition page.
Exit the Business Forecast Annualized
attrition rate assumption on the staff count
pages, multiplied by the prior months
headcount, and adjusted for the number of
weeks in the month.
Transfers Actuals Manually entered at the
beginning of the following month.
Transfers Forecast Applies a standard
annualized rate, varies by business based on
trends, to the projected headcount to determine
the number of projected transfers. AXP Internal
4/4/15

38

38

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan Attrition by Site

The monthly table summarized by

month the total exits.
Exit the Business % Forecast - Exit
the business attrites / Total prior
month headcount * 12.
The Exit the Business % is shown
on the Staff count pages to forecast
the attrites by month.
The Transfers % is calculated the
same way.
AXP Internal
4/4/15

39

39

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan Attrition Summary

A 12 month overview of all Attrition by site.

AXP Internal
4/4/15

40

40

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan Staff Count Schedules

The Staff Count Schedules page is used to track, by site, a 12 month

view of headcount and productive staff available to take phone calls.
It is used to track actual and forecast of Exempt, Non-Exempt and
support employees.
The Staff Count Schedule consists of three sections:
Headcount Summary
Graduating Lift
Attrition Lift

AXP Internal
4/4/15

41

41

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan Staff Count Schedules

The Headcount Summary consists of several components, that are

used to calculate the productive FTE by month.
The Graduating Lift section calculates the FTE equivalent of how
much time during the month, graduating staff will be productive, or
available to answer phone calls.
The Attrition Lift calculates the FTE equivalent of how much time an
agent was available to answer calls during the month, prior to
leaving.
If an agent is graduates and becomes productive in the middle of the
month, they can not be counted as a full FTE for the month, because
they were only available part of the month. The same holds true for
an agent that exits the business.
AXP Internal
4/4/15

42

42

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model
Capacity Plan Staff by Site

Non-Exempt Hiring Pulled

in from the Hiring schedule.
Non-Exempt Attrition
Pulled in from the Attrition
schedule.
Exit the Business Staff
leaving the company.
Training Staff exiting the
business during initial new
hire training.
Non-Exempt transfers
Staff transferring within or
out of the phones.
Attrition % - Annualized
attrition based on current
trend. (Current month
attrition/Prior month nonexempt staff)*12.

AXP Internal
4/4/15

43

43

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model
Capacity Plan Staff by Site

Non-Exempt Staff on Payroll

Staff available to take phone
calls, plus staff in training.
Support Staff Support staff
functions, or non-phone staff.
LOA/DIS Staff on leave of
absence or disability. Forecast
is based on an assumption
based on trends.
Exempt Staff Officials by
band level.
Ratios The number of staff
to UMs, UM to OM, and OM
to Director.
Total Headcount NonExempt + Support Staff +
LOA/DIS + Exempt.
AXP Internal
4/4/15

44

44

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model
Capacity Plan Staff by Site

Productive FTE Lift Full

time staff + PT staff
converted to FTE. Lift
occurs when phone agents
enter or exit the lines.
PT Headcount Nonexempt part time headcount
on payroll it subtracted in
order for the FTE equivalent
to be calculated.
PT FTE Calculates the
FTE equivalent for PT. 1 PT
headcount would convert to .
667 FTE.
Loans Reduction in FTE
due to loans to other
departments.
AXP Internal
4/4/15

45

45

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan Graduating Lift

Graduating FTE Lift

Calculates amount of time
the graduating staff will be
available to answer the
phones.
If an agent graduates in the
1st week of the month, they
would equate to 1 FTE.
If an agent graduates
toward the end of the month,
they would calculate to be
available only .29% of the
month, depending on the
number of weeks in the
month, or .29 FTE.

AXP Internal
4/4/15

46

46

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model
Capacity Plan Attrition Lift

Attrition FTE Lift

Calculates amount of time
the agent was available to
answer the phones prior to
leaving the business.
If an agent leaves in the 1st
week of the month, they
would equate to 0 FTE,
because the would not have
taken phone calls.
If an agent leaves toward
the end of the month, they
would calculate to be
available .71% of the month,
depending on the number of
weeks in the month, or .71
of an FTE.
AXP Internal
4/4/15

47

47

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model
Capacity Plan Team Ratios

Staff - # productive agents assigned to the site, either historically, or

forecasted.
# Teams 20/1 ratio The number of staff / 20.
# Teams allocated The actual # of
AXPstaff
Internal
/ actual teams assigned.
4/4/15

48

48

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan Walkdown Monthly

Summary of prior months performance as compared to plan.

Primarily used as reference while reviewing with business.

AXP Internal
4/4/15

49

49

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan Walkdown Detail

Detailed comparison of Actuals vs. Forecast vs. Plan.

AXP Internal
4/4/15

50

50

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan Historical Data

Summary by month by year of historical

call metrics.
AXP Internal
4/4/15

51

51

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model
Capacity Plan Forecast Data

Projected Availability and metrics forecast.

AXP Internal
4/4/15

52

52

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan Change Control

Notes page to reflect any changes AXP

made
and the date they were made.
Internal
4/4/15

53

53

Capacity Planning
Capacity Plan Workstation Utilization
The Workstation Utilization Summary is used to evaluate any
opportunity or risk the business has with workstations at a given
site. It is also used when making hiring decisions.
The Capacity planners are responsible to verify seat counts with
individual contacts for each business at each site.
Both productive workstations, meaning the workstation has a PC,
and nonproductive workstations, meaning the station does not
have a PC, need to be accounted for in the Capacity Plan.
Stackable schedules are also reflected on the page. A stackable
schedules file is received from the SFE group, that calculates the
number of non-overlapping weekly schedules that can share the
same workstation. The file is located on the Business Performance
Drive and is updated monthly.
AXP Internal
4/4/15

54

54

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan Stacking Ratios

Productive headcount w/LOAs Calculated from the staffing page and

includes Full-time graduated + Part-time graduated + LOA staff for each
site.
Phone Workspaces Available Obtained from the point of contact for each
business at each site.
Current Stackable Schedules The current number of schedules that can
share a workspace.
Possible Stackable Schedules The number of current schedules, that
AXP Internal
can have another schedule stacked
with it, but does not currently.
4/4/15

55

55

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan Workstation Detail

Detailed analysis by site of

the available workstations
for each month.

AXP Internal
4/4/15

56

56

Capacity Planning
Capacity Plan Learning Curve
What is a Learning Curve?

It is the amount of time over the base AHT it takes for a newly hired employee
to complete a call.

The learning curve percentage level indicates the percent of the base handle
time that the new hire is expected to achieve.

Why is a Learning Curve used?

To calculate the calls per FTE that each new hire can take in a week, taking
into account the total handle time expected to handle the call.
The learning curve is added to the base handle time to forecast for
requirements each month.
Learning Curve models are computed for each site, and a division total.

AXP Internal
4/4/15

57

57

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan Learning Curve Model

Calculation Assumptions
Availability & Occupancy assumptions from the Capacity Plan.
Annualized Attrition Assumption built from historical tenure statistics.
Most attrition in Customer Service occurs within the first 3 months.
Monthly Summary
Summarizes Learning Curve impact to base handle time.
Illustrates the full year impact of the Learning Curve on a monthly basis.
AXP Internal
4/4/15

58

58

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan Learning Curve Model

Learning Curve Data & FTE Distribution

Shows the distribution of the new hire classes moving along the learning
curve week after week.
Used to determine where in the learning curve a new hire class is.
AXP Internal
4/4/15

59

59

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan Learning Curve Model

Call Volumes
Computes the volumes that the
team of new hires can take in a
particular week.
Uses the # of new hires left in the
week times the average calls per
rep.
Percent of Volumes
Computes the percentage of total
volume that each new hire team
can handle.
AXP Internal
4/4/15

60

60

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan Learning Curve Model

AHT Impact
Computes the learning curve impact to the average handle time.
Weekly Summary
Base Handle Time, Overall Handle Time, and Learning Curve Impact to
Handle Time.
AXP Internal
4/4/15

61

61

Capacity Planning-Capacity Plan

Model

Capacity Plan Combined Headcount

Quick look at the combined headcount by site.

AXP Internal
4/4/15

62

62