Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Dhaka-Bangladesh
Event
Training Program
Title of Paper
Presentation by
Prof. Dr. Khawaja Amjad Saeed
Professor Emeritus & Founder Principal, Hailey College of Banking & Finance, University of the Punjab, Lahore
Pakistan (2003----), Member Governing Council, International Federation of Accountants (IFAC), New York (19972000), President, South Asian Federation of Accountants (SAFA) (1997), President, Institute of Cost and Management
Accountants of Pakistan (1997-2000), President, Association of Management Development Institutions of South Asia
(AMDISA) (1993-96), Pro Vice-Chancellor University of the Punjab, Lahore (1994-1996), Founder Director, Institute of
Business Administration (IBA), University of the Punjab, Lahore (1973-1996) and senior faculty member of Hailey
College of Commerce, University of the Punjab(1965-73) & Senior Faculty members, Hailey College of Commerce,
University of the Punjab, Lahore (1965-73)
PRESENTATION FRAME
Section A:
1.Risk:
Concept
Characteristics
Categories
Types
RMMM
3.Risk Assessment:
4.Risk Mitigation:
PRESENTATION FRAME
5.
Seven Cs Analysis: Risk Evaluation
6.NIB: Lending Models in Pakistan
7.Projects Risks:
Risks
Safeguarding Against Project Cost Over Runs
Project Profile
Section B:
Workshop Exercise, Problem Solving Session
and Case Analysis
1.Risk Assessment:
Sensitivity Analysis
SECTION: A
A-1: RISK
Concept:
1. Loss of part or all of the actual.
2. Lower Yield on an investment than expected.
3. While it is futile to try to eliminate risk and questionable to
try to misuse it; it is essential that the risks taken be the right
risks (Peter Drucker).
Characteristics:
1. Uncertainly:
May or may not happen.
2. Loss: If the risk becomes a reality, losses will occur.
A-1: RISK
A-1: RISK
Types
- Specific
- Project Risks:
- Budget
- Schedules
- Personnel
- Resource
- Customers
- Technical Risks:
- Design
- Implementation
- Verification
- Maintenance
- Market Risk
- Management Risk
Risk Mitigation
Risk Monitoring
Risk Management
A: Traditional
1.
Internal (4):
- Revenue
- Expenditure
- Finances
- Human Resources
2.
External (4):
- PEST
B: Current: Task Orientation
1.
Competition
2.
Customers
3.
Suppliers
4.
Distribution Channels
3. Manufacturing
1.
Plant
2.
Equipment & Facilities
3.
Plant Operations
4. Production Planning
1.
Purchasing
2.
Material Controls
3.
Production Planning & Control
4.
Quality
5.
Cost Control
5. Industrial Relations
1 +PR
6. Legal
10
Focus
1.
2.
3.
Aspects
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Enthusiastic
Financial
Inspired
Foundation
Customer
Goals
Approach
Technology
Act
People
Lead
Strong
Special
Bold
Simplify, Simplify &
Simplify
Your Servant
Fast
Unleash the Power
With Care
11
1. Culture
2. Values
3. Performance
4. Orientation
5. Products
6. Leadership
7. Recruitment
8. Investment
9. MIS
10. Credit Process
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
Open
Strong and Shared
Profit
Customers
Investment in New
Strong and Consistent
The Best Persons
In Training and Career Development
Operational
Strong and Balanced
12
13
MARKET RESEARCH
1. Total Market:
1.
Increase
2.
How Much:
- At home
- Abroad
2. Share of Market:
1.
Maintain
2.
Increase
3. Customers: Present & Potential:
1.
Continue to buy
2.
Who are they
3.
Where are they
4.
Who takes what
5.
Will they continue to need our products or service
6.
What do they use these for
7.
Competition
8.
Obsolescence
14
1.
2.
3.
4.
Product
Process
Function
Inter-Departmental
15
Risk Evaluation
16
Modes
A: Lending (2)
1. Service Charge
2. Qarde Hasna
1. Mark up
2. Purchase of movable or
immovable Property with buy
back agreement or otherwise
3. Purchase of trade bills
4. Hire purchase
5. Leasing
6. Development charges
C: Investment (4)
A-7: PROJECTS:
RISKS
18
A-7: PROJECTS:
II: Technical
1.
2.
3.
RISKS
Factors (7)
Uncertainty of Original Engineering Estimates
Conservative Engineering Estimates
Unforeseen technical problems (Soil, slides,
water ----)
4.
Faulty Design
5.
Inefficient Contractors
6.
Disputes & Claims of contractors
7.
Change in Specifications (Additional work-----)
III: Economic & Political Factors (3)
1.
Change in Project Composition
2.
Price Increase
3.
Labour Shortages & Disputes
Total 20
19
1.
2.
3.
4.
Consultants-Careful Selection
Consultants-Be Experts and Cost Estimators
Contingency Allowance-realistic Estimates
Reduce Contractors Fears (Risks) by Proper Explanations in
Bidding Documents
5. Supervision of Site-Sound
20
21
5. Available Finances
1.
Amount
2.
Terms & Conditions
3.
Sources
6. Preliminary Assessment
1.
Executing Agency
2.
Inputs
3.
Water Supply
4.
Labour Situation
5.
Management
6.
Production Methods
22
7. Amount Needed
1.
Form
2.
Amount
3.
FX
4.
Timing of Utilization
8. Information
1.
Sources
9. Remarks
1.
Regional Head
2.
Aspects:
Financial Status
Technical Acumen
General Reputation of Applicant
Feasibility
Marketability of Products
23
SECTION B
B-1: RISK ASSESSMENT: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Given Data:
Taka. 000
1. Estimated Investment (Taka)
1,000
2. Desired Rate of Return (%)
20
3. Estimated Units Contributing Normal Value (Number)500
4. Estimated Variable Cost (Taka)
1,000
5. Estimated Fixed Cost (Taka)
800
6. Estimated Revenue at Prevailing Price (Taka) 2,000
Required:
1. Visualize several, at least, three sensitivities.
2. Quantify the factors at (1) above.
3. Compute the impact of all the three sensitivity factors.
4. Offer your comments to assess operational risk.
24
26
Sales
Taka
525,000
52,500
Labour
70,750
Superintendence
Heat, Light, Power
21,000
5,250
Rs. 149,500
27
Fixed Expenses:
Superintendence
9,000
3,000
Depreciation
6,000
Repairs to Building
Cost of Goods Sold
Gross Profit
7,500
25,500
175,000
350,000
105,000
Advertising
5,250
110,250
Fixed Expenses:
Officers Salaries
Advertising
30,000
Office Salaries
72,000
Miscellaneous Expenses
Total Selling and Administrative Expenses
Net profit
30,000
30,000
162,000
272,250
Taka
77,750
31
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