RESERVES

DEFINITIONS OF RESERVES
by SPE and WPC
Reserves are those quantities of petroleum which
are anticipated to be commercially recovered from
known accumulations from a given date forward

Reserve Classifications
Proved
Developed
Undeveloped
Unproved
Probable
Possible

Proven Reserves
Proven reserves are those of petroleum which, by
analysis of geological and engineering data, can be
estimated with reasonable certainty to be commercially
recoverable, from a given date forward, from known
reservoirs and under current economic conditions,
operation methods, and government regulations.
90% probability of the quantities actually recovered will
equal or exceed the estimate.
Developed or undeveloped proven reserves.

Unproved Reserves
Unproved reserves are based on geologic and/or
engineering data similar to that used in estimates of
proved reserves; but technical, contractual, economic, or
regulatory uncertainties prelude such reserves being
classified as proved.

Probable Reserves
Probable reserves are those unproved reserves which
analysis of geological and engineering data suggests
are more likely than no to be recoverable.
50% probability of recovered proved plus probable
reserves.
Probable reserves include:

Possible Reserves
Possible reserves are those unproved reserves which
analysis of geological and engineering data suggests
are less likely to be recoverable than probable
reserves.
10% probability of recovered proved plus probable
plus possible reserves.
Possible reserves include:

Reserves estimation uncertainty

Deterministic a single best estimate of reserves
is made based on known geological, engineering,
and economic data.
Probabilistic the known geological, engineering,
and economic data are used to generate a range of
estimates and their associated probabilities

Probabilistic Representation of
Recoverable Reserves

From distribution curves:

Proven reserves 90% probability
Probable reserves the difference between 50 and 90% probability
Possible reserves the difference between 10 and 50% probability

Test yourself

There are 950 MMstb of oil initially in place in a reservoir. It is estimated that
500 MMstb can be produced. Already 100 MMstb have been produced. What
are the STOIIP and reserves?

Before starting production it was estimated that there was a 90% chance of
producing at least 100 MMstb, 50% chance of producing 500 MMstb and 10%
chance of producing 700 MMstb. What are the proved reserves, probable
reserved, and possible reserves?

Reserves are those quantities of petroleum which are anticipated to be recovered

from a petroleum accumulation. What wrong with this definition?

We have a structure in our licence area which we intend to explore. We

anticipated it to contain a STOIPP of 2000 MMstb, and recovery factor of 65%
using primary methods (30%), secondary (25%) and tertiary (10%) recovery
methods. What are the reserves?

A reservoir has been discovered by drilling a successful exploration well, and

drilling a number of producing wells. We have even produced some 200 MMstb
of oil. STOIIP is 2000 MMstb and recovery factor is 35%. What are the
reserves?

Remaining hydrocarbon in place

Vs
Remaining reserves!