PROBABILITY

(Introduction)
Random Experiments
Sample Spaces
Events

Random Experiment (or Experiment)

A random experiment is any process or activity that
generates a set of data. It is repeatable under
basically the same condition, leading to welldefined outcomes. It is random because we can
never tell in advance what the realization is going to
be even if we can specify what the possible
outcomes are. If we think an experiment as being
performed repeatedly, each repetition is called a
trial. We observe an outcome for each trial.

Examples of a random experiment:

1.Tossing an ordinary coin.
2.Rolling a fair die.
3.Randomly selecting a card from a deck.
4.Recording the number or cars pulling up at
a service station.
5.Recording the yield of a new variety of rice
in kg/ha.
6.Finding out the gender of the first two
children of families with at least two children
in a barangay in Dasmarias, Cavite

Sample Space
Sample space is the set of all
possible outcomes of a random
experiment. It is denoted by the
Greek letter omega () or S. This is
also known as the universal set.

Types of Sample Spaces

1.A finite sample space is a sample
space with finite number of possible
outcomes.
2.An infinite sample space is a
sample with infinite number of
possible outcomes.

Natures of Sample Spaces

1.Discrete sample space is a sample
space with a countable (finite or infinite)
number or possible outcomes.
2.Continuous sample space is a sample
space with a continuum possible
outcomes.

Event
An event is a subset of the sample
space denoted by any letter of the
English alphabet. An event is an
outcome of a random experiment.

Types of Events
1.Elementary event an event consisting of
one possible outcome.
2.Impossible event an event consisting of
no outcome and is denoted by { } or .
3.Sure event an event consisting of all
possible outcomes.
4.Complement of an event is the set of all
elements of the sample space which not in
the event A; denoted by Ac or A.

Operations on Events
1.The intersection of 2 events A and B, denoted by A B, is the
event containing all elements that are common to events A and
B.
Note: Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if they
cannot both occur simultaneously. That is, A B = { }
2.The union of 2 events A and B, denoted by A U B, is the set
containing all the elements that belong to A or B or both.
3.Other operations:

A S S
A A'

A A
A A' S

S'

' S

A' ' A

Exercise:
1.Set up the sample space for the single toss of a pair
of dice and list the elements of the following events.
a)A = event of obtaining a sum of 7 or 11
b)B = event of obtaining a sum of at least 10
c)C = event of obtaining a sum of at most 6
d)D = event of obtaining a product of 24
e)E = event of obtaining a 3 in exactly one of the dice
f)F = event of obtaining a 3 on either die
g)G = event of obtaining a sum of 7 and a product of
12

PROBABILITY
(Basic Concepts and Properties)

Probability
Probability is the chance that something will happen.
Probabilities are expressed mathematically as
fractions (1/6, 1/3, 8/9) or as decimals (.25, .5, .78)
between 0 and 1. Assigning zero means that
something can never happen; and a probability of 1
indicates that something will surely happen.

0 P A 1
P 1
P 0

for any event A

where is the sample space

Classical Probability
If an experiment can result in any one of
N different equally likely outcomes, and
if n of theses outcomes corresponds to
event A, then the probability of event A
is

n
P A
N

Example 1:
If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck,
find the probability that it is a heart.

Example 2:
A coin is tossed thrice. What is the
probability that at least 2 heads occur?

Example 3:
A pair of dice is rolled. What is the
probability that the sum is equal to: (a) 5,
(b) 10, (c) at most 9, (d) at least 8.

Probability of a Complement
This rule states that the probability that
an event A will not occur is equal to 1
minus the probability that it will occur.

P A' 1 P A

Example 1:
If the probability that a patient survives
the operation is 3/5, what is the
probability that he will not survive?

Example 2:
A sample of 586 adults were asked if
they like the taste of pomelo juice and
235 positively respond. (a) Find the
probability that an adult interviewed at
random likes pomelo juice. (b) Find the
probability that an adult does not like the
taste of pomelo juice.

Probability Mutually Exclusive Events

If A and B are mutually exclusive events,
then

P A B P A P B

Example:
Consider the experiment of drawing a
card on a deck of 52 playing cards. What
is the probability of drawing a face card
or an ace card?

Probability Non-Mutually Exclusive

Events
If A and B are non-mutually exclusive
events, then

P A B P A P B P A B

Example:
Consider the experiment of drawing a
card on a deck of 52 playing cards. What
is the probability of drawing a red card or
a face card?

Example 1:
If a card is drawn at random from an
ordinary deck of 52 cards, find the
probability that it is: (a) diamond, (b) a
red card, (c) a heart or a spade, (d) not
an ace, (e) a black card or a king.

Example 2:
The letters of the word ENGINEERING
are written on slips of paper, and are
placed in a box. A slip of paper is chosen
at random. What is the probability that:
(a) the letter is vowel, (b) the letter is a
consonant.

Example 3:
Forty percent of the sales force at a
large insurance company have laptop
computers, 65 percent have desktop
computers, and 24 percent have both.
What percent of the sales people have
either laptop or desktop computers.

Exercise 1:
How many 3 digit numbers greater than
300 can be formed from 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
and 6 if each digit can be used only
once?

Exercise 2:
How many sample points or elements
are there when simultaneously a coin is
tossed once, two dice are thrown and a
card is selected at random from an
ordinary deck of 52 cards?

Exercise 3:
From 7 consonants and 5 vowels, how
many words consisting of 3 different
consonants and 3 different vowels may
be formed? The words need not have
meaning?

Exercise 4:
A girl has 7 coins of different
denominations. How many different
sums of money can she form using 2
coins at a time?

Exercise 5:
If a quiz contains 5 true-false questions
and 5 multiple-choice questions, each
with 4 alternatives, in how many different
ways can one answer the 10 questions?

Exercise 5:
How many ways can 6 passengers be
lined up to get on a train: (a) if a certain
3 persons insist on following each other?
If two persons refuse to follow each
other?

Exercise 5:
How many ways can 6 passengers be
lined up to get on a train: (a) if a certain
3 persons insist on following each other?
If two persons refuse to follow each
other?

Exercise 5:
A carton of 12 transistor batteries
includes one that is defective. In how
many different ways can an inspector
choose three of the batteries and: (a) get
one that is defective (b) not get the one
that is defective.

Exercise 5:
Four married couples have bought eight
seats in a row for a football game. In
how many different ways can they be
seated if: (a) each husband is to sit to
the left of his wife? (b) all men are to sit
together and all women are to sit
together?

Exercise 5:
Four married couples have bought eight
sets in a row for a football game. In how
many different ways can they be seated
if: (a) each husband is to sit to the left of
his wife? (b) all men are to sit together
and all women are to sit together?

Exercise 6:
A bowl contains 15 red beads, 30 white beads, 20
blue beads, and 7 black beads. If one of the beads
is drawn at random, what are the probabilities that it
will be: (a) red, (b) white or blue, (c) black, (d)
neither white or black, (e) blue and red.