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(STOCHASTIC)
Outline
Single-Period Models
Discrete Demand
Continuous Demand, Uniform Distribution
Continuous Demand, Normal Distribution
Multi-Period Models
Given a Q, R Policy, Find Cost
Optimal Q, R Policy without Service Constraint
Optimal Q, R Policy with Type 1 Service Constraint
Optimal Q, R Policy with Type 2 Service Constraint
Single-Period Models
In the single-period model, there remains only one
question to answer: how much to order.
An intuitive idea behind the solution procedure will
now be given: Consider two items A and B.
Item A
Selling price $900
Purchase price $500
Salvage value $400
Item B
Selling price $600
Purchase price $500
Salvage value $100
Single-Period Models
Item A
Loss resulting from unsold items = 500-400=$100/unit
Profit resulting from items sold = $900-500=$400/unit
Item B
Loss resulting from unsold items = 500-100=$400/unit
Profit resulting from items sold = $600-500=$100/unit
If the demand forecast is the same for both the items, one
would like to order more A and less B.
In the next few slides, a solution procedure is discussed
that is consistent with this intuitive reasoning.
Single-Period Models
First define two terms:
Loss resulting from the items unsold (overage cost)
co= Purchase price - Salvage value
Profit resulting from the items sold (underage cost)
cu = Selling price - Purchase price
The Question
Given costs of overestimating/underestimating
demand and the probabilities of various demand
sizes how many units will be ordered?
cu
or , p
co cu
cu
p
co cu
Self Study
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
Prob
Expected Revenue Revenue Total
(Selling
Number
From
From Revenue
all the units) Sold
Sold
Unsold
Items
Items
Cost
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.05
Profit
Self Study
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.05
Prob
Expected Revenue Revenue Total
(Selling
Number
From
From Revenue
all the units) Sold
Sold
Unsold
Items
Items
1
1800 1242.0
0.0
1242
0.95
1990 1373.1
2.9
1376
0.85
2160 1490.4
11.6
1502
0.65
2290 1580.1
31.9
1612
0.35
2360 1628.4
69.6
1698
0.15
2390 1649.1
118.9
1768
0.05
2400 1656.0
174.0
1830
Cost
882
980
1078
1176
1274
1372
1470
Profit
360
396
424
436
424
396
360
cu c0
Demand, Q Probability(demand) Probability(demand<Q), p
1,800 dozen
0.05
2,000
0.10
2,200
0.20
2,400
0.30
2,600
0.20
2,800
0.10
3,000
0,05
cu c0
The optimal solution is the last demand value above the line.
So, optimal solution is 2,400 units.
Continuous Distribution
Often the demand is continuous. Even when the demand is
not continuous, continuous distribution may be used
because the discrete distribution may be inconvenient.
For example, suppose that the demand of calendar can
vary between 150 to 850 units. If demand varies so widely,
a continuous approximation is more convenient because
discrete distribution will involve a large number of
computation without any significant increase in accuracy.
We shall discuss two distributions:
Uniform distribution
Continuous distribution
Continuous Distribution
First, an example on continuous approximation.
Suppose that the historical sales data shows:
Quantity
No. Days sold
Quantity
No. Days sold
14
1
21
11
15
2
22
9
16
3
23
6
17
6
24
3
18
9
25
2
19
11
26
1
20
12
Continuous Distribution
A histogram is constructed with the above data and shown
in the next slide. The data shows a good fit with the normal
distribution with mean = 20 and standard deviation = 2.49.
There are some statistical tests, e.g., Chi-Square test, that
can determine whether a given frequency distribution has
a good fit with a theoretical distribution such as normal
distribution, uniform distribution, etc. There are some
software, e.g., Bestfit, that can search through a large
number of theoretical distributions and choose a good one,
if there exists any. This topic is not included in this course.
Continuous Distribution
Mean = 20
Standard deviation = 2.49
Continuous Distribution
The figure below shows
an example of uniform
distribution.
cu
p
co cu
cu
p
on the left and
co cu
co
1 p
on the right
co cu
P ro b a b ility
Area
p
cu
co cu
Area
1 p
co
c o cu
150
Q*
D em and
850
P r o b a b ilit y
Area
Area
p
1 p
cu
co cu
Q*
D em and
co
co cu
cu
co cu
Probability
Q* = a+p(b-a) =
Area
=
Area =
150
Demand
Q*
850
cu
1.50
co cu = 1.50 0.50 = 0.75
Self Study
Self Study
A r e a = 0 .1 0
P r o b a b ilit y
cu
2
p
co cu = 2 3 = 0.4
1 0 0
A re a = 0 .4 0
(2 )
(1 )
(3 )
z = 0 .2 5 5 = 5 0 0
D em and
Self Study
b. P(stockout)=P(demandQ)=1-P(demand<Q)=1-p=1-0.4=0.6
Self Study
c. P(stockout)=Area(3)=0.15
Look up Table A-1 for
Area (2) = 0.5-0.15=0.35
z = 1.03 for area = 0.3485
z = 1.04 for area = 0.3508
1 0 0
A re a = 0 .1 5
(2 )
(1 )
= 500
D em and
(3 )
z = 1 .0 3 5
Self Study
cu
2 g
Now, solve g in p = c c =
=0.85
(2 g ) 3
o
u
Hence, g=$15.