Systems Modeling: Muhammad Waqas

Lecture 04: Systems Modeling
Computer Modeling and Simulations
Systems Modeling
Muhammad Waqas
FAST, National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences, Peshawar
Introduction
Why is modeling required?
Because modeling may be quite useful
To find the height of a tower, say the Kutub Minar of Delhi or the Leaning Tower at Pisa without actually climbing
it.
To measure the width of a river without actually crossing it
To gauge the mass of the Earth, not using any balance
To find the temperature at the surface or at the center of the sun
To estimate the yield of wheat in India from the standing crop
Introduction
To quantify the amount of blood inside a living human body
To predict the population of China for the year 2050
To determine the time required by a satellite to complete one orbit around the earth, say at the height of about
10,000 km above the ground
To assess the impact of 30% reduction in income tax over the national economy
To ascertain the optimally efficient gun whose performance depends on 10 parameters, each of which can take
10 different values, without actually manufacturing 1010 guns
To determine the mean time between failures (MTBF) or average life span of an electric bulb
To forecast the total amount of insurance claims a company has to pay next year
Modeling
Similarly, for a given physical, biological, or social problem, we may first develop a mathematical model
for it, and then solve the model, and interpret its solution with respect to the problem statement.
Man has been modeling and simulating ever since his brain developed power to image. Children start
modeling from birth. We are all simulatinglike a child with a doll, an architect with a model, and a
business man with a business plan, etc.
What is Modeling
What is modeling?
Modeling is a process of abstraction of a real system. A model portrays a conceptual framework to
describe a system and can be viewed as an abstraction (essence) of an actual system or a physical
replica of a system or a situation. It is a factual representation of reality. The word model is derived
from Latin and its meaning is mold or pattern (physical model).
Modeling
The abstracted model may be logical or mathematical.

A mathematical model is a mathematical description of properties and interactions in the system.
The development of a mathematical model depends on the system boundary, system components,
and their interactions.
It also depends upon the type of analysis that we want to perform.
The assumptions that we will consider while model development. If assumptions are more then the
model will be simpler. If there are fewer assumptions, the model will be complex and the accuracy
will be better.
Hence, during model development, it is necessary to optimize two things:
Simplicity of the model
Accuracy of the model or faithfulness of model
We know that the accuracy of a model is complementary to its simplicity.
Mathematical Models
A mathematical model usually describes a system by means of variables.

The values of the variables can be practically anything; real or integer numbers, Boolean values,
strings, etc.
The variables represent some properties of the system, for example, measured system outputs
often in the form of signals, timing data, counters, and event occurrence (yes/no).
The actual model is the set of functions that describe the relations between the different variables.
Mathematical modeling problems are often classified into white-box or blackbox models, according to
how much prior information is available for the system.
A blackbox model is a system of which there is no prior information available,
white-box model is a system where all necessary information is available.
Practically, all systems fall somewhere in between the lines of white-box and black-box models, so
this concept only works as an intuitive guide for approach.
Mathematical Modeling
Which one will you prefer

Black Box Model
Or a White Box Model
White Box Model
Usually it is preferable to use more a priori information as possible to make the model more accurate.
Therefore white-box models are usually considered easier, because if you have used the
information correctly, then the model will behave correctly.
For example, if we make a model of how a medicine works in a human system, we know that usually
the amount of medicine in the blood is an exponentially decaying function. \
But we are still left with several unknown parameters: how rapidly does the medicine amount decay,
and what is the initial amount of medicine in blood?
This example is therefore not a completely white-box model. These parameters have to be estimated
through some means before one can use the model.
Black Box Model

In black-box models one tries to estimate both the functional relationship between variables and the
numerical parameters in those functions.
Using prior information we could end up, for example, with a set of functions that probably could describe
the system adequately.
If there is no a priori information, we would try to use functions as general as possible to cover all different
models.
An often used approach for black-box models are artificial neural networks (ANNs), which usually do not
need anything except the input and output data sets. ANN models are good for complex systems,
especially when inputoutput patterns known to us are in quantitative form.
If the input and output information are not in quantitative form, but in qualitative or fuzzy form, then ANN
cannot be used. For such situations fuzzy models are good.
Need of System Modeling
Models are used to mimic the behavior of systems under different operating conditions.
This may also be done with the help of experimentation on the system. But, sometimes it is
inappropriate or impossible to do experiments on real systems due to the following reasons
Too expensive: For example, the physical experimentation of a complex system like the satellite
system is quite expensive and time consuming.
Risky: For example, training a person for operating the nuclear plant in a dangerous situation would
be inappropriate and life threatening.

Modeling is an essential requirement in certain situations, such as the following
1.
Abstract specifications of the essential features of a system: When a system does not exist and a
designer wants to design a new system like a missile or an airplane. The model will help in knowing,
prior to the development of the system, how that system will work for different environmental
conditions and inputs.
2. Modeling forces us to think clearly before making a physical model: One has to be clear about the
structure and the essentials of the situation.
3. To guide the thought process: It helps in refining ideas or decisions before implementing it in the real
world.
4. It is a tool that improves the understanding about a system, and allows us to demonstrate and
interact with what we design, and not just describe it.

5. To improve system performance: Models will help in changing the system structure to improve its
performance.
6. To explore the multiple solutions economically: It also allows us to find many alternate solutions for
the improvement in system performance.
7. To create virtual environments for training purpose or entertainment purposes.
Modeling Methods for Complex Systems
It is possible to acquire an almost white-box model of a fighter jet, by modeling it with every mechanical
part of such a jet embedded into the model. However, the computational cost of adding such a huge
amount of detail would effectively inhibit the usage of such a model.
Additionally, the uncertainty would increase due to an overly complex system, because each separate
part induces some amount of variance into the model. It is therefore usually appropriate to make some
approximations to reduce the model to a sensible size.
Engineers often can accept some approximations in order to get a more robust and simple model. For
example, Newtons classical mechanics is only an approximated model of the real world. Still, Newtons
model is quite sufficient for most ordinary-life situations, that is, as long as particle speeds are well
below the speed of light, and as long as we study macro-particles only.
Mathematical models of such systems are most accurate and precise, but can handle the system
complexity only up to certain limit. Simple systems are easy to model mathematically. As the systems
complexity increases, mathematical model development becomes quite cumbersome. At the same
time, it is also difficult and time consuming to simulate complex system models.
In such situations, ANN models are better in comparison to mathematical models. As it is evident from
literature that for good ANN model development, it is necessary to have accurate and sufficient training
data, and this is really difficult for real-life problems. Most of the real-life problems have qualitative
information, which is either difficult or impossible to translate into quantitative form. Hence, fuzzy
modeling is the only option for such circumstances.
The modeling using fuzzy logic is quite useful for highly complex systems as shown
1. Less complex systemsMathematical modeling techniques.

2. Medium complex systemsANN modeling technique.
3. Highly complex systemsFuzzy systems modeling technique.
Classification of Models
Models have been widely accepted as a means for studying complex phenomena for experimental
investigations at a lower cost and in less time, than trying changes in actual systems.
Knowledge can be obtained more quickly, and for conditions not observable in real life. Models tell us
about our ignorance and give better insights into the system.
Physical vs. Abstract Model
To most people, the word model evokes images of clay cars in wind tunnels, cockpits disconnected
from their airplanes to be used in pilot training, or miniature supertankers scurrying about in a
swimming pool. These are examples of physical models (also called iconic models), and are not typical
of the kinds of models that are of interest in operations research and system analysis. Physical models
are most easily understood.
They are usually physical replicas, often on a reduced scale. Dynamic physical models are used as in
wind tunnels to show the aerodynamic characteristics of proposed aircraft designs. Occasionally,
however, it has been found useful to build physical models to study engineering or management
systems; examples include tabletop scale models of material-handling systems, and in at least one
case a full-scale physical model of a fast food restaurant inside a warehouse, complete with full-scale,
and, presumably hungry humans.
Physical vs. Abstract Model
But the vast majority of models built for such purposes are abstracted, representing a system in terms
of logical or quantitative relationships that are then manipulated and changed to see how the model
reacts, and thus, how the system would react if the abstract model is a valid one.
An abstract model is one in which symbols, rather than physical devices, constitute the model. The
abstract model is more common but less recognized. The symbolism used can be a written language or
a thought process.
Mathematical vs. Descriptive Model
A mathematical model is a special subdivision of abstract models. The mathematical model is written in
the language of mathematical symbols. Perhaps the simplest example of an abstracted mathematical
model is the familiar relation
Distance = Acceleration Time
d=a*t
This might provide a valid model in one instance (e.g., a space probe to another planet after it has
attained its flight velocity) but a very poor model for other purposes (e.g., rush-hour commuting on
congested urban freeways).
Static vs. Dynamic Model
Static models are quite common for architectural works to visualize the floor plane. A static simulation
model is a representation of a system at a particular time, or one that may be used to represent a
system in which time simply plays no role.
On the other hand, a dynamic simulation model represents a system as it evolves over time, such as a
conveyor system in a factory. A dynamic model deals with time-varying interactions.
Steady State vs. Transient Model
A steady state pattern is one that is representative with time and in which the behavior in one time
period is of the same nature as any other period.
Transient behavior describes those changes where the system response changes with time. A system
that exhibits growth would show transient behavior, as it is a one-time phenomena, and cannot be
repeated.
Open vs. Feedback Model
The distinction is not as clear as the word suggests.
Different degrees of openness can exist. The closed model is one that internally generates the values
of variables through time by the interaction of variables one on another.
The closed model can exhibit interesting and informative behavior without receiving an input variable
from an external source. Information feed back systems are essentially closed systems.
Deterministic vs. Stochastic Models
If a simulation model does not contain any probabilistic (i.e., random) components, it is called
deterministic; a complicated (and analytically intractable) system of differential equations describing a
chemical reaction might be such a model.
In deterministic models, the output is determined once the set of input quantities and relationships in
the model have been specified; even though it might take a lot of computer time to evaluate what it is.
Many systems, however, must be modeled as having at least some random input components; and
these give rise to stochastic simulation models. Most queuing and inventory systems are modeled
stochastically.
Stochastic simulation models produce an output that is by itself random, and must therefore be treated
as only an estimate of the true characteristics of the model. This is one of the main disadvantages of
simulation.
Continuous vs. Discrete Models
Loosely speaking, we define discrete and continuous simulation models analogously to the way
discrete and continuous systems were defined.
It should be mentioned that a discrete model is not always used to model a discrete system and vice
versa.
The decision whether to use a discrete or a continuous model for a particular system depends on the
specific objectives of the study.
For example, a model of traffic flow on a freeway would be discrete if the characteristics and movement
of individual cars are important.
Alternatively, if the cars can be treated in the aggregate, the flow of traffic can be described by
differential equations in a continuous model.
Continuous vs. Discrete Models
Characteristics of Models
Modeling
Modeling is the art/process of developing a system model.
The purpose of modeling a system is to expose its internal working and to present it in a form useful to
science and engineering studies.
In other words, modeling means the process of organizing knowledge about a given system.
Various inputs required for model development are shown in Figure 2.4a (next slide), and the
methodology of modeling a system is shown in Figure 2.4b (next slide).
For the same system we may develop different models depending upon the purpose and an analysts
viewpoint.
Modeling
Modeling In detail
Consider an aircraft shown in Figure
Modeling In detail
Consider an aircraft shown in Figure which could be modeled as

1. A particle
2. A system of rigid bodies
3. A system of deformable bodies
and the choice depends on the viewpoint of analysts as follows:
If the analyst is interested in the trajectory of flight to find the fuel consumption, then the particle model
of aircraft is good, simple, and sufficient.
When the analyst is interested in flight stability, i.e., aircraft behavior for small disturbances, then the
aircraft is considered as a rigid body system.
Finally, when performing flutter analysis, i.e., determining the so-called critical speed of flutter, the
deformable body system is a good model.
Modeling In Detail
The very first step in modeling is to identify a system (i.e., collection of components) and interaction
among components. System boundary affects the system model.
Assumptions made during modeling also affect the system model. More assumptions increase the
simplicity of the model by reducing complexity but at the same time these also reduce the accuracy of
the system model.
So there is a trade off between the simplicity, accuracy and computation time. Accuracy tells about the
faithfulness of the model. The degree of faithfulness implies that up to what extent the system is
accurate.
Fundamental Axiom (Modeling Hypothesis)
Mathematical model of a component characterizes its behavior as an independent entity of a system,

and how it is interconnected with the other components to form a system.
It implies that the various components can be removed either literally or conceptually from the
remaining components and can be studied in isolation to establish a model of their characteristics.
This is a tool of science which makes the system theory universal.
Analysts can go as far as they wish in breaking down the system in search of building blocks that are
sufficiently simple to model and which identify a structure upon which alteration can be made.
Component Postulate (First Postulate)
The pertinent performance (behavior) characteristics of each n terminal component in an identified

system structure can be specified completely by a set of (n 1) equations in (n 1) pairs of oriented
complementary variables (i.e., across variables
xi(t)
yi(t)) identified by n
xi and yi may be vectors if
and through variables
arbitrarily chosen terminal graph as shown in Figure 2.6. The variables

necessary.
Component Postulate (First Postulate)
The complementary pair of variables for different systems are shown in Table
Model Evaluation
An important part of the modeling process is the evaluation of an acquired model.

How do we know if a mathematical model describes the system well?
This is not an easy question to answer.
Usually the engineer has a set of measurements from the system which is used while creating the
model. If the model was built well, the model will adequately show the relations between system
variables for the measurements at hand.
The question then becomes: How do we know that the measured data is a representative set of
possible values?
Does the model describe the properties of the system between the measured data well
(interpolation)? Does the model describe events outside the measured data well (extrapolation)?
Model Evaluation
A common approach is to split the measured data into two parts; training data and verification data.
The training data is used to train the model, that is, to estimate the model parameters. The verification
data is used to evaluate model performance.
Assuming that the training data and verification data are not the same, we can assume that if the model
describes the verification data well, then the model will describe the real system well.
Model Evaluation
However, this still leaves the extrapolation question open.

How well does this model describe events outside the measured data?
Consider again Newtonian classical mechanics model. Newton made his measurements without
advanced equipment, so he could not measure properties of particles traveling at speeds close to
the speed of light.
Likewise, he did not measure the movements of molecules and other small particles, but macroparticles only. It is then not surprising that his model does not extrapolate well into these domains,
even though his model is quite sufficient for ordinary-life physics.
Generic Description of Two-Terminal Components
The mathematical model of the components identified in a system structure serves as a building block
in the analysis and design of physical systems.
These mathematical models must be established from empirical tests on the components or calculated
from constructional features of the components such as their geometric dimensions and material
composition.
In passive element the direction change does not cause changes in the direction terminal equation, but
in active elements terminal equations are changed with direction. The fundamental two-terminal
components may be classified as
A-type elements: dissipater or algebraic components
B-type elements: delay type components
C-type elements: accumulator or capacitive type components
D-type elements: drivers or sources type of Components
Dissipater Type Components
These are the components in which power loss takes place and the terminal equation may be written in
algebraic form explicitly with across variables on one side and through variables on another side of the
equation.
The terminal equation for this-type components may be written in impedance form as
Across variable = Impedance * Through variable
x(t)=ay(t)
or in admittance form as
Through variable = Admittance * Across variable
y(t) = 1/a x(t)
In the impedance form of a terminal equation the across variable is dependent on the through variable,
and vice versa in the admittance form.
Delay Type Elements
The terminal equation for delay type components can be written as
Power and energy can be respectively shown for a delay type component as
The energy or average power for infinite time is zero for delay type components. Therefore these
components are called non-dissipative type elements.
Accumulator Type
The terminal equation for accumulator or storage type components may be written as
Similar to the delay type components the energy or average power over infinite time is zero for
accumulator type components. Therefore, these components are also called non-dissipative type
elements.
Sources or Drivers
The drivers or sources are those, whose across variable or through variable is specified, and the
different operating conditions have no effect on these variables. The terminal equations for the drivers
may be written as
x(t) = specified for across drivers
y(t) = specified for through drivers
Ideal across driver: The magnitude is perfectly specified and it will not change whatever be the value
of the through variable.
Ideal through driver: The magnitude of the through variable is perfectly specified and it will not change
whatever be the value of the across variablebut, practically it is not possible to manufacture any
source whose value will be unaffected by the operating conditions. The ideal sources are only used for
theoretical applications.
Components of Different Systems
The Last Slide
Art is the lie that helps us to see the truth.

Picasso
The sciences do not try to explain, they hardly even try to interpret, they mainly make models. By a
model is meant a mathematical construct which, with the addition of certain verbal interpretations,
describes observed phenomena. The justification of such a mathematical construct is solely and
precisely that it is expected to work.
John Von Neumann
Physical models are as different from the world as a geographical map is from the surface of earth.
L. Brillouin
Source: Text Book Chapter 2

Systems Modeling: Muhammad Waqas

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Lecture 04: Systems Modeling

Computer Modeling and Simulations

FAST, National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences, Peshawar

Lecture 04: Systems Modeling

Computer Modeling and Simulations

FAST, National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences, Peshawar

Lecture 04: Systems Modeling

Computer Modeling and Simulations

Lecture 04: Systems Modeling

Computer Modeling and Simulations

FAST, National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences, Peshawar

Lecture 04: Systems Modeling

Computer Modeling and Simulations

FAST, National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences, Peshawar

Lecture 04: Systems Modeling

Computer Modeling and Simulations

The abstracted model may be logical or mathematical.

FAST, National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences, Peshawar

Lecture 04: Systems Modeling

Computer Modeling and Simulations

A mathematical model usually describes a system by means of variables.

FAST, National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences, Peshawar

Lecture 04: Systems Modeling

Computer Modeling and Simulations

Which one will you prefer

FAST, National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences, Peshawar

Lecture 04: Systems Modeling

Computer Modeling and Simulations

White Box Model

FAST, National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences, Peshawar

Lecture 04: Systems Modeling

Computer Modeling and Simulations

Black Box Model

Lecture 04: Systems Modeling

Computer Modeling and Simulations

Need of System Modeling

FAST, National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences, Peshawar

Lecture 04: Systems Modeling

Computer Modeling and Simulations

Need of System Modeling

Lecture 04: Systems Modeling

Computer Modeling and Simulations

Need of System Modeling

FAST, National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences, Peshawar

Lecture 04: Systems Modeling

Computer Modeling and Simulations

Modeling Methods for Complex Systems

FAST, National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences, Peshawar

Lecture 04: Systems Modeling

Computer Modeling and Simulations

Modeling Methods for Complex Systems

FAST, National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences, Peshawar

Lecture 04: Systems Modeling

Computer Modeling and Simulations

Modeling Methods for Complex Systems

1. Less complex systemsMathematical modeling techniques.

FAST, National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences, Peshawar

Lecture 04: Systems Modeling

Computer Modeling and Simulations

FAST, National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences, Peshawar

Lecture 04: Systems Modeling

Computer Modeling and Simulations

Physical vs. Abstract Model