Reaching Them Where They Are: Millennials and Their Changing Political Consumption Patterns

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher
Reaching Them Where They Are:
Millennials and their changing political consumption

patterns
A Battleground Poll of Millennials
Presented by Cornell Belcher
Twitter @cornellbelcher
July 2016
Cornell Belcher
President of brilliant corners Research & Strategies

Harvard Institute of Politics Fellow
George Washington University National Council for Media and
Public Affairs Board Member
The Root 100 in 2011 & 2012
AAPC 2009 Polling team of year award winner
Former Political Contributor to CNN
DNC Pollster under Chairman Howard Dean
Obama 2008 and 2012 Campaign team Pollster
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Senior
Political Advisor 2002 cycle
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Special Projects
Director 2000 cycle
Emilys List Women VOTE! Coordinator 1998 cycle
Changing Face of the Electorate
Even if we dismantled every barrier to voting, that alone would not

change the fact that America has some of the lowest voting rates in
the free world. In 2014, only 36 percent of Americans turned out to
vote in the midterms -- the second lowest participation rate on record.
Youth turnout -- that would be you -- was less than 20 percent.
Less than 20 percent. Four out of five did not

vote.
In 2012, nearly two in three African Americans turned out. And then, in
2014, only two in five turned out. You dont think that made a
difference in terms of the Congress I've got to deal with? And then
people are wondering, well, how come Obama hasnt gotten this
done? How come he didnt get that done? You dont think that made a
difference? What would have happened if you had turned out at 50,
60, 70 percent, all across this country? People try to make this political
thing really complicated.
-Barack Obama, Howard University 2016
The Incoming Electorate Much

younger
Voted before
20% 11%
29%
1829
New voters
3044
2%
13%
23%
41%
Source: Edison Mitofsky Research, 2008 national exit poll
62%
The Incoming Electorate Much more

diverse
Voted before
6% 3%
12%
New voters
Caucasi
an
African
Americ
an
7%
18%
55%
79%
20%
Source: Edison Mitofsky Research, 2008 national exit poll
The U.S. is experiencing rapid

diversification
Percent of Total Population in America, 1950-2050
Majorit
y
Minorit
y
2050
47%
2040
51%
2030
13%
13%
12%
20%
30%
Caucasian
40%
6%
11%
11%
87%
10%
3%
9%
12%
85%
1950
5%
13%
83%
1960
6%
16%
80%
1970
7%
19%
76%
1980
8%
23%
70%
1990
26%
13%
65%
2000
9%
13%
60%
2010
0%
29%
14%
56%
2020
A
political
tipping
point
13%
10%
50%
African-American
60%
70%
Hispanic
80%
Asian
Source: Center for American Progress. States of Change.
90%
5%
3%
3%
100%
What the Diversification Means Politically
Dramatic share differences for Youth

vote
Youth voters make all the difference
50%
2014 shares
2012 shares
45%
56%
GOP
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
+6%
60%
De
m
19%
55
%
-6%
De
m
13%
56%
GOP
16%
15%
22%
10%
5%
0%
2014 shares
2012 shares
9
*CNN exit polls
Seniors
made up
almost twice
the electorate
as younger
voters = bad
for Dems
Reagans GOP coalition is no longer

enough to win nationally
Presidential Election Results
Reagan vs. Carter, 1980
10
56% - Caucasian
14% - AfricanAmerican
37% - Hispanic
Source: Center for American Progress. States of Change.
36% - Caucasian
56% - Hispanic
A New, Diverse Coalition Has Emerged

as the Majority Nationally
Presidential Election
Results Obama vs.
Romney, 2012
Mitt Romney
59% - Caucasian
27% - Hispanic
Barack Obama
39% - Caucasian
71% - Hispanic
OHIO
41% Caucasian
61% Hispanic
VIRGINIA
37% Caucasian
64% - Hispanic
Obama lost white vote but won

the state
Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico
Michigan
Florida
Ohio
37% - Caucasian Pennsylvania
95% - AfricanVirginia
American
Florida
60% - Hispanic
11
Source: Center for American Progress. States of Change. February
Key Findings
Despite perceptions that young and minority voters are disengaged in 2016, our data reveals that
87% of likely millennial voters are following information about politics and the candidates closely,
higher than in 2012.
Television is no longer the dominant source of information for information about politics and
candidates running for office -- being mentioned less often than online news sites, and making up
less than a quarter of total responses
Not only is televisions dominance gone, but
four out of ten young and minority likely voters

said that have not watched live TV AT ALL other than sports in the last 7 days. And 75% said they
they infrequently or never watch television to find out information about politics
Our battleground poll showed young and minority likely voters to be twice
political information on a mobile device rather than on their computer
Despite unprecedented interest in the elections our battleground poll showed one third of young
and minority likely voters to be undecided across the senate races in the 10 states we surveyed
12
as likely to consume
Our battleground poll showed control of the senate might

very well be decided by
young and minority voters,

a third of whom are undecided. In the battleground states we
know that this groups is best reached through digital, that
they are mobile first, and that they are more likely to trust
sources online sources of information like Google and Online
news sites than they are traditional media.
In the battleground states we see a relatively high percentage
of persuadable voters among young and minority likely
voters. Combined with their overwhelming shift toward
mobile media consumption this creates a unique opportunity
for campaigns at all levels to shape opinion with the evolving
electorate.
Our Battleground Sample
14
Key Demographic Breakouts
African American
Hispanic
Minority: All non-white respondents
Swing voters: Respondents who are unsure of their Presidential vote

choice
Senate Undecided: Respondents who are undecided on down-ballot

races in their state
15
Millennials are consuming political information

differently
Political Information is Being Accessed onthe-go

Q: Generally
speaking, where
do you
consume the
most political
information
online? Is it on
the computer, or
on your mobile
device?
3%
20%
32%
44%
Computer
Neither
Computer
Mobile Device
17
Mobile Device
Dk/Ref
Both
Total
Swing
Senate
Undecided
African
American
Hispanic
Minority
32%
44%
36%
39%
26%
47%
28%
51%
28%
45%
31%
45%
Millennials are Relying Less on Their Television

for Political Information and More on Their Social
Media Networks
Watch TV for Political Info
Access Social Media for Political Info

11%
7%
21%
14%
18%
7%
20%
17%
19%
21%
23%
20%
Frequently: 40%
Multiple times an hour
Multiple times a day
Once a day
A few times a week
A few times a month
Never
Dk/Ref
18
Frequently: 50%
Q: Currently, how
often do you
[watch television]
/ [access the
internet or social
media]
specifically to
find information
about politics (for
example to
research
something, learn
about
something)?
They are Turning Increasingly Online and

to Social Media Networks
Total
Online news sites
50%
TV
47%
Facebook
20%
Print newspapers or magazines
18%
Radio
17%
Family and Friends
12%
Google
11%
Blogs or other websites
9%
Other
2%
Dont know
0%
19
Majority going
online for
information
Q: Where do you
get most of your
information about
politics and
candidates
running for office
these days?
[Multiple
Responses
Permitted]
They Trust Their Relationships and

Sources who can Deliver the News
TV ads
Political TV programs
Radio Ads
Political Radio Programs
Family and Friends
Print Newspaper or Magazines
Blogs
News Websites
Google
20
Total
Swing
Senate
Undecided
African
American
Hispanic
Minority
8%
9%
5%
9%
13%
11%
18%
14%
13%
24%
19%
21%
7%
7%
3%
8%
8%
8%
17%
15%
11%
19%
17%
17%
21%
16%
18%
23%
20%
20%
21%
16%
13%
22%
21%
22%
5%
7%
2%
6%
4%
7%
26%
22%
17%
29%
27%
27%
21%
20%
14%
29%
20%
26%
Q: How much
do you trust
each of the
following
sources for
political
information?
Please rate
each using a
scale of 0-10
This Election Year, Millennials are Paying

Attention but
Compared to 2012, More Millennials are

Following This Election Very Closely
4%
11%
27% very closely

in 2012
36%
48%
More closely
Less closely
22
Very closely
Somewhat closely
Not at all closely
Dk/Ref
Not that closely
Total
Swing
Senate
Undecided
African
American
Hispanic
Minority
85%
15%
81%
19%
75%
24%
86%
14%
87%
13%
86%
14%
Q: How closely
would you say
you have been
following news
and information
about politics and
candidates at this
point?
And More Millennials are Talking Often

About the Upcoming Election
7%
17% every day
in 2012
Q: How often, if
ever, do you
discuss politics
with your family
or friends?
21%
18%
23%
30%
Infrequently
Often
Every day
23
Never
Once or twice a month
Once or twice a week
Three or four times a week
Every day
Dk/Ref
Total
Swing
Senate
Undecided
25%
53%
21%
29%
50%
21%
36%
49%
14%
African
American
Hispanic
Minority
27%
55%
17%
26%
54%
20%
26%
54%
19%
The Major Players are Easily Recognizable

but Unpopular
11%
7%
0%
14%
10%
12%
20%
DK/Unfamiliar
24
6%
22%
32%
8%
45%
14%
26%
18%
41%
15%
30%
40%
Freezing
13%
22%
30%
6%
32%
Democrats
Republicans
13%
24%
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
12%
46%
Barack Obama
50%
Cool
60%
Neutral
8%
16%
70%
80%
Warm
90%
Name
ID
Mean
99%
56.9
99%
39.7
99%
22.9
98%
53.0
98%
37.0
100%
Scorching
Q: Please rate
your feelings
toward some
people,
organizations,
issues and
themes using a
scale of 0-100
However, They are Still Disinterested in the

Political Process
They are Spending Their Time Online and

Learning More, but Taking Less Action
Total
Swing
Senate Undecided
Minority
Learn about a candidate or political party
77%
74%
70%
75%
Share your opinion about current events
69%
69%
65%
70%
Learn about or sign a petition
67%
65%
58%
66%
Find information on the voting process
61%
60%
56%
61%
Follow public policy or community development process
59%
59%
49%
57%
Encourage others to vote and participate in politics
57%
57%
48%
60%
Track legislation
46%
43%
32%
42%
Share a video that demonstrates injustice
44%
43%
38%
46%
Contact leaders or elected officials
36%
38%
26%
35%
Track donations to candidates and political groups
28%
29%
21%
29%
Making donation to candidates and political groups
27%
27%
17%
25%
Organize or participate in a protest or demonstration
25%
25%
19%
30%
22%
21%
12%
23%
18%
21%
14%
27%
Signing up for volunteer shifts with candidates,

organizations, and political groups
Watch or share a video in Spanish from your mobile
device
26
Q: Have you
ever used the
internet, social
media, or new
technologies
for any of the
following?
Hillary Needs to Improve Her

Performance With Dem Base Groups
9%
Obama won
60% of youth
vote in 2012
11%
3%
45%
24%
7%
Hillary Clinton
Lean Trump
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Other
27
Lean Clinton
Other
Total
Millennial
womenSenate
Undecided
Swing
52%
28%
20%
9%
7%
84%
49%
23%
27%
Donald Trump
Dk/Ref
African
American
Hispanic
Minority
81%
6%
13%
57%
27%
16%
66%
15%
19%
Q: If the
elections for
President were
being held today,
would you vote
for Donald Trump
or Hillary Clinton
for President?
Even though you
are undecided,
which way do
you lean?
Big Base Advantage, but Still a lot of

Persuadable Voters
26%
50%
24%
Base Clinton
28
Swing
Base Trump
Total
Swing
Senate
Undecided
African
American
Hispanic
Minority
Base Clinton
50%
0%
48%
79%
54%
63%
Swing
24%
100%
29%
17%
20%
23%
Base Trump
26%
0%
23%
4%
26%
14%
Q: If the
elections for
President were
being held today,
would you vote
for Donald Trump
or Hillary Clinton
for President?
Even though you
are undecided,
which way do
you lean?
And a Plurality of Young Voters Are

Undecided in Battleground Senate Races
31%
Q: If the
elections for US
Senate were
being held today,
would you vote
for [Democratic
Candidate] or
[Republican
Candidate]?
Even though you
wouldnt vote,
which way do
you lean?
33%
36%
Senate Democrat
Senate Democrats
Senate Republicans
Senate Undecided
29
Senate Undecided
Total
Swing
Senate
Undecided
33%
31%
36%
27%
30%
43%
0%
0%
100%
Senate Republican
African
American
Hispanic
Minority
33%
23%
44%
29%
34%
36%
32%
29%
40%
Important to Make These People Familiar

With Their Senate Candidates
Undecided in both Pres and Senate race
34%
Not very likely to vote (3-5)
33%
Following the election less closely
30%
Has not voted previously
30%
African-American age 18-24
27%
Age 18-20
26%
Discuss politics infrequently
25%
Never watch TV for political information
25%
Minorities age 18-24
24%
Total
19%
Use the internet to contact elected officials
11%
Sign up to volunteer online
7%
30
Of people who are

familiar with
BOTH Trump and
Clinton, but
NEITHER of their
Senate
Candidates.
Issues and Traits to Better Position the

Candidates
Despite a big gap Between Clinton and

Trump Neither Are Connecting on key
Issues
Understands Concerns of Youth
23%
Make College more Affordable
24%
Fight for working/ middle class
Combat climate change
Shares my values
21%
10%
37%
13%
14%
20%
Trump much better
30%
40%
50%
Trump little better
Both
13%
13%
7%
2%
14%
13%
3%
14%
13%
27%
5%
60%
9%
14%
19%
25%
14%
9%
14%
3%
34%
14%
25%
3%
34%
15%
15%
4%
22%
16%
6%
3%
29%
18%
23%
Divisive
32
20%
27%
20%
0%
36%
29%
Stand up to Wall Street
Make sure hard work pays off
13%
70%
16%
80%
Neither/Don't know
15%
90%
100%
Q: Here are a list

of factors that
others have said
influence their
participation in
the political
process. How
important are
these factors on
your motivations
to participate in
the political
process?
Despite a big gap Between Clinton and

Trump Neither Are Connecting on key
Issues
26%
Protect us from terrorism
28%
Strong leader
Get economy moving and create jobs
16%
Honest and trustworthy
17%
Reform the criminal justice system
21%
25%
Eliminate excessive student loan debt
24%
0%
33
16%
20%
Trump much better
2% 11%
30%
4%
24%
40%
50%
Trump little better
60%
Both
15%
3%
2%
70%
10%
13%
15%
3%
34%
16%
18%
32%
27%
18%
14%
17%
18%
32%
14%
17%
16%
48%
27%
10%
4%
8%
12%
Eliminate economic inequality
Trust on Immigration
22%
15%
7%
21%
15%
4%
6%
23%
13%
24%
Is racist
24%
12%
11%
13%
17%
80%
Neither/Don't know
9%
14%
90%
100%
Q: Here are a list

of factors that
others have said
influence their
participation in
the political
process. How
important are
these factors on
your motivations
to participate in
the political
process?
To Reach Them, we Have to be Aspirational
Pressure to Participate Comes From Within
Pressure from parents
14%
Pressure from superiors
13%
Pressure from friends
11%
Pressure from social media
10%
17%
Don't know
20%
43%
45%
26%
30%
40%
Not at all important
10%
43%
27%
16%
6%
45%
24%
16%
10%
15%
21%
17%
5% 3%
9%
35%
38%
Enjoy participating
35
30%
53%
Others have won me my right to participate
5% 4%
23%
67%
To make a difference
0%
17%
72%
Standing up for my values
50%
60%
70%
Not very important
80%
90%
100%
Somewhat important
Q: Here are a list

of factors that
others have said
influence their
participation in
the political
process. How
important are
these factors on
your motivations
to participate in
the political
process?
Pressure to Participate Comes From Within

for Minorities as Well
19%
17%
18%
23%
Pressure from social media
14%
19%
24%
Don't know
20%
30%
40%
Not at all important
6%
9%
40%
39%
21%
15%
10%
13%
18%
Pressure from friends
0%
36
21%
19%
4%2%
7%
36%
39%
Enjoy participating
Pressure from superiors
29%
55%
Others have won me my right to participate
5% 3%
21%
70%
To make a difference
Pressure from parents
17%
73%
Standing up for my values
41%
41%
50%
60%
70%
Not very important
80%
90%
100%
Somewhat important
Q: Here are a list

of factors that
others have said
influence their
participation in
the political
process. How
important are
these factors on
your motivations
to participate in
the political
process?
Methodology
These findings are from a proprietary survey conducted by brilliant corners Research &
Strategies. This battleground state survey consisted of 1029 Millennials, age 18-35 in 10 states:
CO, FL, GA, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, and WI. The survey was conducted by phone and online,
starting on July 12, 2016 and ending on July 20, 2016. The surveys sample was drawn randomly
from voter files and online panels and geographically stratified for proportional representation.
The data was weighted slightly to adhere to population demographics of Millennials. The margin
of error overall is +/-3.1%, with a 95% confidence interval.
37

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Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher