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One Population
Parameter
Proportion | Mean | Variance
Presented by:
Mary Grace C. Agas
Sherylline F. Cano
Professor:
Dr. Melvin Vidar
Discussion Outline:
Definition of statistical hypothesis and hypothesis testing
Two types of hypotheses
Left, right and two tails
Type 1 and Type II errors
P-values and Rejection Region
Hypothesis Testing Procedure
Hypothesis Test for a Proportion
Hypothesis Test for a Mean
Hypothesis Test for Variance
Alternative
hypothesis
Alternative hypothesis is denoted by HA or H1 . This is a
theory that contradicts the null hypothesis and this is
often called research hypothesis.
Suppose you work for a company that produces cooking pots with an
average life span of seven years. To gain a competitive advantage, you
suggest using a new material that claims to extend the life span of the pots.
You want to test the hypothesis that the average life span of the cooking
pots made with this new material increases.
1) Write the null and alternative hypotheses.
Answer:
H0: The average life span of the new cooking pot is 7Hyears.
0: =
7
H1: The average life span of the new cooking pot is more thanH7
>
1: years.
7
Right Tailed
Hypothesis
A
statistical test
Type II Error
Failing to rejecting H0 when H0 is false. P(Type II) =
1-
The probability of committing a Type II error is called Beta, and is
often denoted by .
The probability of not committing a Type II error is called the Power
Decision Rules
P-value. The strength of evidence in support of a null hypothesis is
measured by theP-value.
Region of acceptance. Theregion of acceptanceis a range of
values. If the test statistic falls within the region of acceptance, the
null hypothesis is not rejected. The region of acceptance is defined
so that the chance of making a Type I error is equal to the
significance level.
The set of values outside the region of acceptance is called theregion of rejection. If
the test statistic falls within the region of rejection, the null hypothesis is rejected. In
such cases, we say that the hypothesis has been rejected at the level of significance.
P-Value
The probability that if H0 is true, and a sample is taken
with the same sample size, then the result will be at least
as extreme as the result obtained from our sample.
P-Value Example
A hypothesis test was conducted with n = 200 students
to see if more than 70% college students gain weight in
their first year of college (H0: p = 0.7, H1: p > 0.7). The
sample proportion was found to .76 and the P-Value
was 0.03. Then if the proportion is really 0.7 and if
many sample size 200 students are taken, 3% of these
samples will produce a sample proportion at least as
large as .76.
Rejection Region
The region under the z (or t) graph such that a test
statistic in that area will result in H0 being rejected (H1
accepted). A test statistic outside of that region will
result in failing to reject H0.
Hypothesis Tests
of
statistic)
whereParameteris the value appearing in the null hypothesis, andStatisticis the point
estimateofParameter. As part of the analysis, you may need to compute the standard
deviation or standard error of the statistic.
When the parameter in the null hypothesis involves categorical data, you may use a chisquare statistic as the test statistic. Instructions for computing a chi-square test statistic are
presented in the lesson on the chi-square goodness of fit test.
P-value. The P-value is the probability of observing a sample statistic as extreme as the
test statistic, assuming the null hypotheis is true.
Step 2
Determine the level of significance (alpha)
Step 3
Conduct the survey or experiment
Step 4
Calculate the test statistic
Calculate the p-value
Step 5
Make a conclusion
Test statistic. The test statistic is a z-score (z) defined by the following equation.
z = (p - P) /
where P is the hypothesized value of population proportion in the null hypothesis, p is the sample
proportion, and is the standard deviation of the sampling distribution.
Interpret Results
If the sample findings are unlikely, given the null
hypothesis, the researcher rejects the null hypothesis.
Typically, this involves comparing the P-value to
thesignificance level, and rejecting the null hypothesis
when the P-value is less than the significance level.
Proportion
A candidate for the upcoming election has done a survey of
registered voters to see if she will win (receive more than 50%
of the votes). Of the 300 registered voters surveyed, 170 of
them indicated that they would vote for this candidate. What
can be concluded at the 0.05 level of significance?
Step 1 State the H0 and H1
H0: p = 0.05
z = 2.309
p-value = .0104
p hat (sample proportion) = .
5667
n = 300
Interpreting P-Value
H0: p = 0.5 H1: p > 0.5 = 0.05
P-Value = 0.01: If 50% will vote for the candidate and if
another randomly selected 300 voters are surveyed, then
there would be a 1% chance the at least 170 of them will
vote for the candidate.
Interpreting alpha
H0: p = 0.5 H1: p > 0.5 = 0.05
If 50% will vote for the candidate and if another randomly
selected 300 voters are surveyed, then there would be a 5%
chance that the new survey would lead us to the false
conclusion that the candidate will receive more than 50% of
the votes.
H1: p 12 = 0.05
z = -.4615
P-Value = 0.64
P hat= .1125
n = 400
H1: p 12 = 0.05
np = 45 > 5
nq = 355 > 5
Solution:The solution to this problem takes four steps: (1) state the hypotheses,
(2) formulate an analysis plan, (3) analyze sample data, and (4) interpret
results.
Solution:The solution to this problem takes four steps: (1) state the hypotheses,
(2) formulate an analysis plan, (3) analyze sample data, and (4) interpret
results.
Analyze sample data. Using sample data, we calculate the standard deviation () and compute
the z-score test statistic (z).
= sqrt[ P * ( 1 - P ) / n ]
= sqrt [(0.8 * 0.2) / 100]
= sqrt(0.0016) = 0.04
z = (p - P) /
= (.73 - .80)/0.04
= -1.75
Since we have atwo-tailed test, the P-value is the probability that the z-score is less than -1.75 or
greater than 1.75.
We use theNormal Distribution Calculator to find P(z < -1.75) = 0.04, and P(z > 1.75) = 0.04. Thus,
the P-value = 0.04 + 0.04 = 0.08.
Solution:The solution to this problem takes four steps: (1) state the hypotheses,
(2) formulate an analysis plan, (3) analyze sample data, and (4) interpret
results.
Solution:The solution to this problem takes four steps: (1) state the hypotheses,
(2) formulate an analysis plan, (3) analyze sample data, and (4) interpret
results.
Solution:The solution to this problem takes four steps: (1) state the hypotheses,
(2) formulate an analysis plan, (3) analyze sample data, and (4) interpret
results.
Analyze sample data. Using sample data, we calculate the standard deviation ()
and compute the z-score test statistic (z).
= sqrt[ P * ( 1 - P ) / n ]
= sqrt [(0.8 * 0.2) / 100]
= sqrt(0.0016)
= 0.04
z = (p - P) /
= (.73 - .80)/0.04
= -1.75
Since we have aone-tailed test, the P-value is the probability that the z-score is less
than -1.75. We use theNormal Distribution Calculator to find P(z < -1.75) = 0.04.
Thus, the P-value = 0.04.
Solution:The solution to this problem takes four steps: (1) state the hypotheses,
(2) formulate an analysis plan, (3) analyze sample data, and (4) interpret
results.
This approach consists of four steps: (1) state the hypotheses, (2) formulate
an analysis plan, (3) analyze sample data, and (4) interpret results.
1 =M M 2
2 >M <M 1
3 <M >M 1
The first set of hypotheses (Set 1) is an example of a two-tailed test, since an
extreme value on either side of the sampling distribution would cause a researcher to
reject the null hypothesis. The other two sets of hypotheses (Sets 2 and 3) are onetailed tests, since an extreme value on only one side of the sampling distribution
would cause a researcher to reject the null hypothesis.
Degrees of freedom. The degrees of freedom (DF) is equal to the sample size
(n) minus one. Thus, DF = n - 1.
probability of observing a
as the test statistic. Since
a
t-score,
use
the
assess
the
probability
Interpret Results
If the sample findings are unlikely, given the null
hypothesis, the researcher rejects the null hypothesis.
Typically, this involves comparing the P-value to the
significance level, and rejecting the null hypothesis when
the P-value is less than the significance level.
H0: = 8
H1: < 8
= 0.05
H1: < 8
t = -1.916
p = .03
= 0.05
Interpreting P-Value
H0: = 8
H1: < 8
= 0.05
Solution:The solution to this problem takes four steps: (1) state the hypotheses,
(2) formulate an analysis plan, (3) analyze sample data, and (4) interpret
results.
Solution:The solution to this problem takes four steps: (1) state the hypotheses,
(2) formulate an analysis plan, (3) analyze sample data, and (4) interpret
results.
Analyze sample data. Using sample data, we compute the standard error (SE), degrees of
freedom (DF), and the t-score test statistic (t).
where s is the standard
SE = s / sqrt(n)DF = n 1 t = (x- ) / SE
deviation of the sample,xis
the sample mean, is the
= 20 / sqrt(50)
= 50 1 = (295 - 300)/2.83
hypothesized population
= 20/7.07
= 49 = -1.77
mean, and n is the sample
= 2.83
size.
Since we have atwo-tailed test, the P-value is the probability that the t-score having 49
degrees of freedom is less than -1.77 or greater than 1.77.
We use thet Distribution Calculator to find P(t < -1.77) = 0.04, and P(t > 1.77) = 0.04. Thus,
the P-value = 0.04 + 0.04 = 0.08.
Solution:The solution to this problem takes four steps: (1) state the hypotheses,
(2) formulate an analysis plan, (3) analyze sample data, and (4) interpret
results.
Solution:The solution to this problem takes four steps: (1) state the hypotheses,
(2) formulate an analysis plan, (3) analyze sample data, and (4) interpret
results.
Solution:The solution to this problem takes four steps: (1) state the hypotheses,
(2) formulate an analysis plan, (3) analyze sample data, and (4) interpret
results.
Analyze sample data. Using sample data, we compute the standard error (SE), degrees of freedom
where s is the standard
(DF), and the t-score test statistic (t).
SE = s / sqrt(n)
DF = n - 1
= 10 / sqrt(20)
= 20 - 1
= 10/4.472
= 2.236
= 19
t = (x- ) / SE
= (108 - 110)/2.236
= -0.894
deviation of the
sample,xis the sample
mean, is the
hypothesized population
mean, and n is the sample
size.
Here is the logic of the analysis: Given the alternative hypothesis ( < 110), we want to know whether
the observed sample mean is small enough to cause us to reject the null hypothesis.
The observed sample mean produced a t-score test statistic of -0.894. We use the
t Distribution Calculatorto find P(t < -0.894) = 0.19. This means we would expect to find a sample
mean of 108 or smaller in 19 percent of our samples, if the true population IQ were 110. Thus the Pvalue in this analysis is 0.19.
Solution:The solution to this problem takes four steps: (1) state the hypotheses,
(2) formulate an analysis plan, (3) analyze sample data, and (4) interpret
results.
Hypothesis Testing of a
Variance
with n-1
At a cereal filling plant, quality control engineers do not want the variance of
weights of 750 gram cereal boxes to exceed 100 grams 2.
Step 1 | Hypothesis
H0 : 2 = 100 Ha : 2 > 100
Step 2 | Determine level of significance and test statistics
= .05
test statistic is 2 = (n-1) s2 / 2
Step 3 | Data Collection
7 boxes were tested with weights 775, 780, 781, 795, 803, 810, 823
s2 = (x1 - xx ) 2 / n 1
= 315.5714
A user of a certain gauge of steel wire suspects that the standard deviation of its breaking strength, in newtons (N), is
different from the value of 0.75 as specified by the manufacturer.
Consequently the user tests the breaking strength of each of a random sample of nine length of wire and obtains the
following results. 72.1 74.5 72.8 7573.4 75.4 76.1 73.5 74.1
Assuming breaking strength to be normally distributed, test at the 10% level of significance, the manufacturers
specification.
or
H0 : 2= 0.5625N2
HA : 2 0.75N
or
H0 : 2 0.5625N2 (two-tailed)
degrees of freedom = 8
10%