Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Statement Analysis
Learning objectives
1.Essentials
4.
5-2
Qualitative Characteristics of
Accounting Information:
Understandability
Decision usefulness
Reliability
Relevance
Consistency
Comparability
3
1.
Arthur Levitt, former SEC chairman. 2.Bethany McLean, Hocus-Pocus: How IBM Grew 27% a Year, Fortune, June 26, 2000, p. 168.
Learning Objective:
rocedure
Reviewing the Financial Statements:
s Review comparative financial
Analysis
10
Financial
statement forecasts (see Appendix B
of Chapter 6 )
Valuing
11
Only then you can truly get behind the numbers and see whats really going on the
Company.
12
5-13
Tools:
Financial statement
analysis:
1.
Trend statements
Financial ratios
(e.g., ROA and ROCE)
5-14
2.
3.
4.
Basic Approaches
1.
2.
3.
17
Comparative Income
Statements:
Krispy Kremes Financials
Systemwide sales
Include sales from
company owned and
franchised stores.
18
19
Base Year
$393.7 operating expenses in 2002
* Not adjusted for distortions caused by special items.
Each statement item is calculated in percentage terms using a base year number.
20
Assets
21
$3.2 cash
$105.0 assets
22
Trend Assets
Krispy Kremes Financials:
$7 cash in 2000
$3.2 cash in 1999
Each statement item is calculated in percentage terms using a base year number.
23
24
$13.1 accounts
payable
$105.0 total
liabilities and
equity
$8.2 accounts
payable in 2000
$13.1 accounts
payable in 1999
Each statement item is calculated in percentage terms using a base year number.
26
27
28
Each statement item is calculated in percentage terms using a base year number.
29
Learning Objective:
Profitability Analysis
32
Return on assets
ROA=
EBI
Average assets
Asset turnover
Sales
Average assets
Analysts do not always use the reported earnings, sales and asset figures.
Instead, they often consider three of adjustments to the reported numbers:
Eliminate
nonrecurring items
Eliminate interest
expense
Effective tax rate
34
2.
EBI
Average assets
EBI
Sales
Asset turnover
Sales
Average assets
5-35
36
1.
2
How was Krispy Kreme able to increase its ROA from 7.1% to 12.1% over
this period?
1. The expanded store base, along with increased sales, allowed the fixed costs be
spread over a number of stores- The result was in an improved operating profit margin.
2. However, the asset based was considerably less productive in 2002 ( Asset turnover is
1.48) than it was in 1999 ( Asset turnover is 2.22) More stores meant more resources
( assets) tied up operating cash, receivables, etc.
37
Further decomposition of
Correspond to the common-size
ROA
Income statement items
Operating profit
margin
NOPAT
Sales
ROA = X
Sales
Average assets
Asset turnover
38
Usages of Decomposition of
ROA
The profit margin components can help the
Wendys, Baja
Fresh, Caf
Express
S&P industry
survey or
other sources
Four
hypothetical
restaurant firms
Competitive
Advantage:
Companies that consistently earn an
ROA above the floor. (e.g., Firm C)
Competitive
ROA floor
41
Components of ROCE
Return on assets (ROA)
NOPAT
Return on common
equity (ROCE)
Average assets
X
Average common
shareholders equity
NOPAT
X
42
Unchanged because of
Financial leverage
44
45
Leverage
Leveragehelps
helps
Leverage
Leverage neutral
neutral
Leverage hurts
46
Learning Objective:
47
borrower.
A companys ability to repay debt is
determined by its capacity to generate cash
from operations, asset sales, or external
financial markets in excess of its cash needs.
Financial ratios play two roles in credit
analysis:
They help quantify the borrowers credit risk
before the loan is granted.
Once granted, they serve as an early
warning device for increased credit risk.
48
Short-term loans:
Seasonal lines of credit
Special purpose loans
(temporary needs)
Secured or unsecured
Long-term loans:
Mature in more than 1 year
Purchase fixed assets,
another company,
Refinance debt ,etc.
Often secured
Revolving loans
Like a seasonal credit line
Interest rate usually floats
Public Debt
Bonds, debentures, notes
50
Understand
the business
Step 2:
Evaluate
accounting quality
Step 3:
Evaluate current
profitability and health
Step 4:
Step 5:
Step 6:
Due diligence
Comprehensive risk
assessment
ratios
Current ratio =
Liquidity
ratios
Quick ratio =
Short-term
liquidity
Current assets
Activity
ratios
Very immediate
liquidity
Current liabilities
Inventory turnover =
Inventory purchases
Average accounts payable
Liquidity refers to the companys short-term ability to generate cash for working
52
Capital needs and immediate debt repayment needs.
Net Sales
Average Accounts Receivable
This ratio measures how many
times a company converts its
receivables into cash each year.
Average
Collection
Period
365
Receivables Turnover Ratio
Average =
365
Days in
Inventory Turnover Ratio
Inventory
This ratio indicates the number
of days it normally takes to sell inventory.
54
Credit risk:
Operating and cash conversion
cycles
Working capital ratios:
Days accounts receivable outstanding =
365 days
Accounts receivable turnover
45 days
Operating
cycle 75
days
30 days
365 days
Cash
conversion
cycle 55
(75-20) days
Inventory turnover
365 days
( 20 days)
Operating cycle: That is how long it takes to sell inventory (30 days) and collect cash from the customers (45 days).
55
Credit risk:
Long-term solvency
Long-term debt to assets =
Debt ratios
Long-term debt
Including
Intangible assets
Total assets
Long-term debt
Total tangible assets
Long-term
solvency
Interest coverage =
Coverage
ratios
Operating cash flow
to total liabilities =
Solvency refers to the ability of a company to generate a stream of cash inflows sufficient to maintain
56
its productive capacity and still meet the interest and principal payment on its long-term debt.
57
59
60
Credit analysis:
Case Study: G.T. Wilsons credit
A bank client for over 40 years.
risk
Credit analysis:
Case Study: G.T. Wilsons credit
risk
62
components
Negative free
cash flow
Increased
borrowing
Continued
dividend
payment
63
Declining
margin
Customers take
longer to pay,
but reserve is
smaller
Larger debt
burden
64
Credit analysis:
Recommendation
65
Learning Objective:
66
67
68
Non-GAAP earnings:
Pro forma earnings and EBITDA
Sometimes it is called
adjusted earnings.
Sometimes it is called
pro forma earnings.
69
Company
defined numbers
Computed
according to GAAP
70
Summary
How
to use financial ratios
Profitability:
74
How
to (use
financial
ratios
Liquidity
Evaluate
short-term
credit risk)
- Liquidity ratios: Current ratio and quick ratio
- Liquidity of working capital : Average collection
period, Days inventory held, days payable
outstanding, operating cycle days, cash
conversion cycle, etc.
- Operating Efficiency ( Activity ratios)
Accounts receivable turnover
Inventory turnover
Accounts payable turnover
75
76
5-77
Common
Size
statement
s
5-78
Business Segment
information
5-79
5-80
5-81
5-82
5-83
5-84
5-85
5-86
5-87