Statistics & Probability

PRODI TEKNIK ELEKTRO

UNIVERSITAS INTERNASIONAL BATAM
2008

FIELDS OVERVIEW
Mathematics
Abstract system, not
about the real world
used by both statistics
and probability

Tools,
Formulas

Tools,
Formulas

Justification of
confidence

Business
Wants to know
about the real
world to make
good decision

Statistics
Structured method of
observing and saying
things about the real
world without relying on
theories about how the
world works

Observation,
measurement,
and sampling

Probability
Relies on models and
tells us about what
might happen when
we make decisions
Interpretation
Model about how the
world works
From science,
engineering, and
business

Observation,
analysis, and
interpretation

The real world

Which statistics assumes we can only learn about through observation and measurement

So that
1. Understanding in evaluating statistical reports
2. Being able to perform statistical study
3. Detecting problem and limitations in statistical studies
4. Being able to select the correct statistical measures and techniques
for making most basic statistical decision
5. Understand how to select the appropriate statistical techniques for
making common business decisions
6. Be familiar with statistical tools used in the most common areas of
business
7. Avoid all the most common errors in working with and presenting
statistics
8. Present effective statistical reports that support business decisions

you would be able to apply Statistics in a practical way

BUT WHY ARE THESE ALL ABOUT THE BUSINESS?

Because Business is very complex

It calls for problem solving

It frequently calls for choosing the choice among options

It calls for a good planning

It calls for a clear analysis on

- what our customer
- what our manufacturing plants
Are thinking & doing?
- our staffs

It calls for controlling the works of people and machinery

And etc

AND THESE ARE ALL ABOUT MAKING OF GOOD DECISION

For Example
U Chart of FLAW
3.0

Sample Count Per Unit

UCL=2.864

2.5

_
U=1.950

2.0

1.5

LCL=1.036

1.0
1

9
Sample

11

13

15

17

Statistics is a very odd subject, in a way, because it works with both abstract
things like math, and with the very real things in the world that we want to
know about. The key to understanding statistics is not in understanding the
mathematics, but in understanding how the mathematics is tied to the world

So, where is the probability?

Statistics tells us general info about the world
even if we dont understand the processes that
made it happen
Probability is a way of calculating facts about the
world, but only if we understand the underlying
process
How Probability Fits in With Statistics?
For every practical element of statistics based on the
sample, there is a corresponding theoretical element
based on the population. Once we understand the notion
of probability, we will be able to see how the numbers we
calculate from the sample can tell us about the real
values which is population

Further about Statistics

Descriptive Statistics : Statistical methods, measures, or
techniques used to summarize groups of numbers
Example : How many units failed quality checks today?
Inferential Statistics : Statistical methods, measures, or
techniques used to make decisions based groups of
numbers by providing answers to specific types of
questions about them
Example : Did enough units fail quality checks today to
justify a maintenance call?

Case Study
For example, say that we know that more women than men bought our product
during the Christmas season. And we know that, statistically, more women between
18 and 34 bought our product than the competitors. Does that tell us whether we
should focus our advertising on men or women in the spring? Not necessarily. It
depends on whether we are selling a womens perfume or a power tool.
If perfume, maybe we should focus on men to buy Valentines Day gifts. Or maybe
on women, so theyll ask their husbands and boyfriends for our perfume by name.
If a power tool, then the Christmas season sales might be gifts. And a spring
advertisement might be better focused on men who will be getting ready for summer
do-it-yourself projects.
The lesson: Statistics may or may not be valuable to business. Common sense
always is. If we use statistics, be sure to use them with some common sense thrown in.

Further about Statistics (contd )

Statistical study : A project using statistics
to describe a particular set of
circumstances, to answer a collection of
related questions, or to make a collection of
related decisions
Statistical report : The document presenting
the results of a statistical study

Measurement
Statistics is not a form of mathematics. The
most important difference is that statistics is
explicitly tied to the world. That tie is the
process of measurement.
Measurement is the process by which we
examine the world and end up with a
description (usually a number) of some
aspect of the world.

List of Terms
Variable : A measure that matches up to some aspects of
the thing being measured
Example : Height, weight, salary, etc
Value : the particular number resulting from the
measurement on particular occasion
Example : Janes height is 62 inches
Occasion : The particular occurrence of the particular act
of measurement, usually identified by the combination of
the subject and the time the measurement is taken.
Situation : The circumstances surrounding the subject at
the time the measurement is taken. Very often, when
multiple measurements of a subject are taken on a single
occasion, measurements characterizing the situation are
also taken

Term of Data
Data : The collection of values resulting from a group
of measurements. Usually, each value is labeled by
variable and subject, with a timestamp to identify the
occasion
Categorical data : Data recorded in non-numerical terms.
It is called categorical because each different value (such
as car model or job title) places the subject in a different
category.
Numerical data : Data recorded in numerical terms. There
are different types of numerical data depending upon
what numbers the values can be. (See Levels of
Measurement below.)
Error : The degree to which a description does not match
whatever is being described.

Population Vs Sample
Population : All of the subjects of interest. The
population can be a group of business
transactions, companies, customers, anything
we can measure and want to know about
Sample : The subjects in the population we
actually measure
Sampling : The process of selecting the
individuals from the population that makes up
our sample

Thank you
Vielen Dank
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