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Designing and Planning Operations

-Use of Forecasting for Logistic Companies


exploring new opportunities
By:
Jyotirmoy Mondal
Subodh Dutta
Soham Sinhamahapatra
Lavanya Gupta
Saurav Dey
Salaj Jain

About the Company


South Asia's premier courier, and integrated express package Distribution Company
Having the most extensive domestic network covering over 35,004 locations
Provides services in more than 220 countries and territories worldwide through their group
companyDHL, the premier global brand name in express distribution services
In India, the company is having warehouses at 85 locations, as well as bonded warehouses at
the 7 major metros of Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Hyderabad
Blue Dart is re-certified as one of a handful of Indian companies to the new globalISO 9001 2000standards for "Design, management and operations

What does

actually do ?

Freight Transportation.
Warehousing and Distribution.
Supply Chain Solutions.
Lead Logistics Provider (LLP)
Temperature Controlled Logistics.
Green Logistics Solutions.
Manufacturing Logistics.
Warehousing & Order Fulfilment.
Transport Management and
Distribution Logistics. Aviation
Aftermarket Logistics

Strategic Operations at
DHL
Input = Packages

Transformation
Process = Sorting

Output = Delivered
Packages

Courier
in
Mexico
picks
up a letter

Processed
in
Arrives
in
Mexico and sent to
Washington by noon
Cincinnati
and
the next day =
sorted
to
the
Satisfied customer
correct destination
This is an example of how a normal movement of freight is properly
processed. The package or letter is inputted into the system at the origin, it is
then transferred by air or truck to our central hub here at Cincinnati, and it is
then processed or sorted to the appropriate outbound flight, and delivered to
the final customer.

PROCESS CHOICE

DHLs facility at the Cincinnati airport is set up based upon a flow operating process. This
style of process is clearly seen on the nightly operation of all inbound flights, primary and
secondary sorting, as well as letter sorting, reloading of material, and finally the outbound
flights.
The flow process has allowed DHL to stay very competitive over the years by allowing them
to add on to the current hub when it was needed.

INVENTORY MANAGEMENT AT DHL


Close to 80% of inventories at DHL are supplies. Many of them are not tied into the finished
product of overnight shipping, but help the running of a smooth system. There are hundreds of
supplies that are kept on hand in the event of unforeseen problems.

The benefit of holding onto inventory at DHL is that a lot of things can happen without any notice.
Such examples could be a belt ripping in half, which can shut down an entire primary or
secondary depending on its location, or a mechanical issue with an aircraft for one early
departure, delaying the delivery of all materials destined for that city. There are really no minuses
to have such inventories because it is worth the required space needed to store such items.
Instead of losing several hours of sorting time due to a belt being down, or leaving an entire flight
at its origin, having those supplies on hand allows for a lot quicker fix.

PLANNING AND SCHEDULING


DELAY
IN DELIVERY
OF GOODS

Understaf
ng

System runs
late

Customer
ANGRYYY !!!

At DHL, operations are planned using a chase demand approach. A key resource that must
be planned properly is stafng. During peak times of the year, stafng is a real concern for
management. Being understaffed opens the chance for the system to run late, which then
delays the delivery of shipment to the customer.

MATERIALS AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

When it comes to the supply chain, the key inputs that go into making DHL the company it
is, is the aggressive, intelligent, friendly, full of facts couriers and salespeople that acquire
and maintain customers. The natural resource of raw talent is taken and developed in the
beginning of an employees job and shaped into the wilful and knowledgeable courier he or
she will become. This helps create a determined employee who can now go out and acquire
new customers, which helps add value to that region as well as the company as a whole.

A SMALL VIDEO CONNECTING


BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF LOGISTICS

USE OF TIME SERIES FORECASTING IN LOGISTICS


EXPLORING NEW OPPORTUNITIES
Regression analysis useful in short-term forecasting, but flawed
A better approach: base the forecast of a variable on its own history
Avoids need to specify a causal relationship and to predict the values of explanatory
variables
Our focus in this chapter is on time series methods for forecasting.
Two important features:
Uses historical data for the phenomenon we wish to forecast.
We seek a routine calculation to apply to a large number of cases and that may be
automated, without relying on qualitative information about the underlying phenomena.
Short-term forecasts are often used in situations that involve forecasting many different
variables at frequent intervals.

USE OF TIME SERIES FORECASTING IN LOGISTICS


EXPLORING NEW OPPORTUNITIES
The major components of such a model are usually the following:
A base level
A trend
Cyclic fluctuations

EXPLORING NEW OPPORTUNITIES DHL &


BLUE DART INDIA EXPERTS TALK
Name : Ashwani Jaiswal
DHL
Current : DHL Supply Chain
Previous : Jabong, ebagsfull.com, (E-Retailing),
yebhi.com, (Shop online Trading Private Ltd.)
Education
:
Indian
Institute
of
Material
Management
We deal with perishable goods like fruits and
flowers importing all over India and exporting
abroad but dealing with sea food and fisheries is a
major challenge and we are trying pull out few
opportunities

EXPLORING NEW OPPORTUNITIES DHL &


BLUE DART INDIA EXPERTS TALK
Name : Abhiram Athavale
Director Transport DHL Supply Chain India Pvt.
Ltd. , Mumbai Area, India
Current : DHL Supply Chain India Pvt Ltd, DHL
Logistics Pvt Ltd.
Previous : DHL Lemuir Logistics Pvt Ltd, AFL Pvt
Ltd
Education : University of Mumbai
It is of utmost importance that not a single
mistake is made when we are dealing with goods
and merchandise that are easily destroyed.
Because a single miscalculation can lead to huge
losses. Thus, anticipation, proper decision
making are absolutely necessary.

EXPLORING NEW OPPORTUNITIES DHL &


BLUE DART INDIA EXPERTS TALK
Name : Krishan Kumar J Yadav
Current : Transport Operations Director at DHL
Supply Chain, New Delhi Area
Previous : DHL Logistics Pvt Ltd , DelEx Cargo
India Pvt Ltd, Reliance Logistics Pvt Ltd.
Education
:
Narsee
Monjee
Institute
of
Management Studies
Forecasting is an important part of Operations
Management.
The
right
techniques
,
if
implemented at the right times, can reduce costs
of the organisations manifold. Thus, it is one of
the key aspects on which the profitability of a
company like ours depends upon.

EXPLORING NEW OPPORTUNITIES DHL &


BLUE DART INDIA EXPERTS TALK
Name : Priyanka Rawat
Manager-Operations at FedEx , New Delhi Area ,
Logistics and Supply Chain
Current : FedEx Express
Previous : Vulcan Express Pvt. Ltd (SnapDeal), Blue
Dart Express Ltd, Tata Steel
Education : University of Petroleum and Energy
Studies
There are immense implications of forecasting
techniques in operations today. Due to the dynamic
changing global scenario, it has become all the more
important as more and more activities in the market
today require prompt and appropriate action

EXPLORING NEW OPPORTUNITIES DHL &


BLUE DART INDIA EXPERTS TALK
Name : Achala Venugopalan
Current : Operations Management Specialist Team
Leader at FedEx Express, Bengaluru Area
Previous : FedEx Express , DHL Supply Chain ,
Prolog
Education : University of Nottingham Nottingham
University Business School
I have been working in companies that use
operations management as a tool to facilitate day
to day activities and maximise profits to the
highest extent possible. Forecasting is absolutely
indispensable towards achieving these goals.

PERISHABLE LOGISTICS SOLUTION


FISHIERIES OF WEST BENGAL
BREAKING MONOPOLY OF KOLKATA AND
HALDIA PORT

GOING BY STATISTICS-COMMERCIAL
FISHERIES IN IINDIA
Serial No

State

Production 201516

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

West Bengal
Andhra Prades
h Gujarat
Kerala
Tamil Nadu
Maharashtra
Uttar Pradesh
Bihar
Karnataka

14,47,260
10,10,830
7,21,910
6,67,330
5,59,360
5,56,450
3,25,950
3,19,100
297,69

EXPORT OF SEA FOOD AND FISHERIES


FROM BENGAL
YEAR

2015-16
2014-15
2013-14
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
2009-10
2008-09

Export Volume(in
tonne)
91054
84994
67148
63832
59151
56060
46901
33625

Value(in crores)
3430.99
3686.35
3053.46
1811.21
1730.81
1730.89
1313.67
892.48

MAJOR EXPORTING NATIONS


Fisheries item are mostly exported to JAPAN CHINA US UK CANADA DUBAI &
EU
Major mode of logistics are done by Air INDIA , INDIGO , JET AIRWAYS
Tender mainly taken by SA Exports Kolkata, Digha Fisheries Export
Above companies uses Port of Haldia and Cargo ship for transport

APPLYING FORECASTING
TO PREDICT EXPORTABLE AMOUNT OF 2017-18
AND
AMOUNT OF MARKET SHARE THAT CAN BE
GAINED BY DHL & BLUE DART
AS
THEY HAVE
TEMPRETURE CONTROLLED LOGISTIC FACILITY
BY
EXCEL

KEY POINT FROM EXCEL ANALYSIS


Year

Actual

201516

Mode By
Exportable Mode Air
sea
amount
(Tones)
(Tones)
111054

DHL LOGISTICS
(10% OF SEA
EXPORTS)

Amount in
crores(Revenue
generated)

20000

91054

Forec 2016asted 17
119723.43

21561

98162.7

9816.244627

309

Forec 2017asted 18
125908.05

23070

102838.05

10283.80795

369

SOLUTION- AFTER FORCASTING FOR DHL


AND BLUE DART LOGISTICS

NEED TO HAVE A
TEMPREATURE CONTROLLED
LOGISTIC DEPARTMENT
IN KOLKATA

SPECIAL THANKS TO DR. MANASI SHUKLA


Dr. Manasi Shukla,obtained herMBA (FMS:from
top five B-schools in India), PhDin Knowledge
management services industries (Delhi University)
has around seven years each of industry and
academic experience. Her specialization is in quality
management of the operational stage of an
outsourcing project. She is evenly exposed to
creative thinking, application ethics and organization
capabilities having worked in diverse profiles with
Oracle Corp, Wipro Ltd in New Delhi as total solution
provider to clients. Her researching patience,
rigorous back-ups and relevance in customer context
has been further honed with her experience as a
researcher in Singapore (NBS, HCL BPO
technologies). She has research experience in
knowledge management, k- worker competency vs.
skills e-commerce and ITES industry quality
standards. In total, she has around 8 publications
and 17 conference acceptances.

THANK YOU VERY MUCH

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