PIPELINE QRA SEMINAR

PIPELINE RISK ASSESSMENT

SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE
MODELLING

SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

What is consequence modelling?

Effects from accident (e.g. release or explosion)

Strict physical effect (e.g. overpressure from explosion,

flow from release and concentration at distance)

Overall effect on human safety (e.g. injuries from

overpressure or injuries from toxic concentration)

SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

What is included in consequence modelling?

-Dispersion (gas)
-Vaporization and dispersion (liquid to gas)
-Release (flow liquid and gas)
-Explosion (overpressure)
-Jet fire/pool fire (extent and thermal radiation)
-Toxicity (gas)
-Smoked and gas ingress (buildings)
-Structural integrity
-Domino effects (e.g. BLEVE)

SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

Specialized software (specific consequence model) versus

software packages (several consequence models)

Somewhat a question of wanted level of detail (e.g. urban

area or rural area and topography)

Method depending on the situation (e.g. complexity, stage of

project and time)

Economical and technological aspects (e.g. costs for license

and knowledge of the software)

No single best software to solve all problems

SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

Different methods and philosophy for consequence

modelling

Empirical consequence models (based on experiments)

versus CFD models (advanced numerical calculations)

SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

Different methods and philosophy for consequence

modelling

Software established by consultant companies,

authorities, companies (e.g. oil and gas industry and
process industry) and software companies

All of the software listed to the right is empirical

consequence models

PHAST from DNVGL

Canary from QUEST
EFFECTS from TNO
TRACE from Safer Systems
FRED from Shell
ALOHA from EPA

SOFTWARE: PHAST

Software package from DNVGL

- Discharge and dispersion models

- Flammability models (e.g. radiation effects from jet fires,
pool fires and fireballs)
- Explosion models
- Models for the toxic hazards (e.g. indoor and outdoor
toxic dose)

Continuously developed for over 30 years

Used frequently in the oil- and gas industry (e.g. BP,

Total, Maersk and Shell)

SOFTWARE: PHAST
Strengths of PHAST

All-round

Simple (i.e. easy to learn)

Possibility to connect to SAFETI (QRA software)

Weaknesses of PHAST

Limitations in congested areas

Limitations in urban areas (i.e. obstacles and topography)

SOFTWARE: PHAST

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EXAMPLE OF PHAST
Ringsted, Denmark
- 30 gas pipeline
- 80 bar
- shopping centre at 100 meters

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EXAMPLE OF PHAST
- Jetfire (blue - radiation 4 kw/m2 injuries from short
exposure) 130 meter
- Jetfire (green - radiation 12.5 kw/m2 fatalities from
medium exposure) 100 meter
- Jetfire (yellow - radiation 37.5 kw/m2 fatalities from
short exposure) 70 meter

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EXAMPLE OF PHAST
- Flashfire (green - LEL) 100 meter
- Flashfire (blue - LEL) 230 meter

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SOFTWARE: ALOHA

Software (free) from EPA in USA

-Discharge and dispersion models

-Flammability models (e.g. radiation effects from jet fires,
pool fires and fireballs)
-Explosion models
-Models for the toxic hazards (e.g. indoor and outdoor toxic
dose)

Part of the CAMEO software package (i.e. tools for

emergency planning)

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EXAMPLE OF ALOHA
- Jetfire (blue - radiation 4 kw/m2 injuries from short
exposure) 80 meter
- Jetfire (green - radiation 12.5 kw/m2 fatalities from
medium exposure) 40 meter
- Jetfire (yellow - radiation 37.5 kw/m2 fatalities from
short exposure) 30 meter

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EXAMPLE OF ALOHA
- Flashfire (green - LEL) 340 meter
- Flashfire (blue LEL) 500 meter

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SOFTWARE: CFD

Short for: computational fluid dynamics

Not a specific software (i.e. group of software)

-CFX CFD from ANSYS

Uses numerical methods and algorithms to solve and

analyse problems that involve fluid/gas flows

Could be applicable for wide range of problems

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SOFTWARE: CFD

Could be applicable for wide range of problems

Aerodynamics (e.g. aircrafts and cars)

Hydrodynamics (e.g. ships)
Power plants (e.g. combustion in gas turbines)
Process equipment (e.g. flows and loads)
Process equipment (e.g. heat transfer and cooling)
Marine structures (e.g. loads)
Environment (e.g. exhaust and dispersion)
Hydrology (e.g. flows in rivers and flooding)
Buildings (e.g. ventilation)

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SOFTWARE: CFD

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SOFTWARE: CFD

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SOFTWARE: CFD

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SOFTWARE: CFD
Strengths of CFD

Applicable for complex situations (e.g. urban areas and

topography)

Weaknesses of CFD

Resources (e.g. man-hours, knowledge and economy)

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COMPARISON OF CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

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COMPARISON OF CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

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QUESTIONS?

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