Professional Documents
Culture Documents
FIC
T
e
n
Evaluacin
d de Riesgo de Inundaciones Basado Sobre GIS y
e
n Modelamiento Hidrulico (Hec-GeoRas)
c
i Nstor Emilio Choquehuanca Solorzano
a Ingeniero Civil
s Master in
advance
A studies in
c sustainable
UNI - Lima
t water
u resources
Febrero 2012
a
l
e
s
e
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Efectos del cambio climtico
December-January-February (DJ F) Existe un consenso de que los
riesgos derivados de fenmenos
... hidrolgicos extremos van en
. aumento. Este punto de vista se
alimenta de pruebas tanto de los
recientes cambios en la frecuencia y
.... 3 la gravedad de las inundaciones y
las sequas y las salidas de los
modelos climticos que predicen
aumentos en la variabilidad
hidrolgica (IPCC, 2007 -.
Christensen JH, et al 2007).
O
B- on reg,onal stuO .........., '" """""'' 11.
Preu:ip1t1t,on inCJ'$e In 90% or srmulabons
PrI.JOn decrease- 'Vttry likdy Prl!Cll),lion ll!x"?rt-me ncteo-1..:ety
15.S
1- las llanuras de inundacin.
IS.O!-
14.S 1-
7
14.0
Allm.:.lh'<
xn.no
13.S _. v.1th Vok-.l.n0<'$
_._
1950 ---'-----
2000
'.?100
2050
Climate Simulations for IPCC 2007 Report
Page 2
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Efectos del cambio climatico
El evento extremo que ocasiona mayores daos,
econmicos, sociales, y de perdidas de vidas el 1997-98
Per es el fenmeno El Nio 1982-83
1891
1925
-;J\-
r- - (
r
--
.-:=----
-
--cu,1Jr.t,..
-
--otc(,:1, ...
Zonas afectadas por lluvias,
---= .:..-:-::-- nuavcos .
:-:=-----
22 - - lll(IW!ll)fl'"'l
...c-
L-'- - - Zonas afectadas por huaycos e
- -- -- -
21
--
l -- :..:.:. inun,
-- ..e- _--'-
-=-
Zonas afectadas por huaycos
--
=-----
-'-'-- -:-
Zonas
afectacin
de mayor
23
__--"'---'
- ---
Fuente: PREDES 1965 1970
14----------
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
2005
Year
Page 3
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EIH
Eidgenssische Technische Hochschule Zrich
Swiss Federal lnstitute of Technology Zurich
CONTENIDO DE LA PRESENTACIN
1. Objetivos
4. Anlisis y Resultados
Page 4
L"' 2
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Definicin de riesgo:
Riesgo = funcin (Peligro x Expocisin x Vulnerabilidad)
El Riesgo es la probabilidad de una Hazards
prdida, y esto depende de tres
elementos: peligro, vulnerabilidad y
exposicin. Si cualquiera de estos tres Vulnerabilidad se puede definir como
elementos en el riesgo aumenta o "las condiciones determinadas por
disminuye, entonces el riesgo aumenta factores fsicos, sociales, econmicos
o disminuye respectivamente.[2] y ambientales o procesos, que
aumentan la susceptibilidad de una
comunidad al impacto de los
peligros.[3]
Vulnerability
l\f'ge 2
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Desastre
Una seria interrupcin en el funcionamiento de una comunidad o sociedad
que ocasiona una gran cantidad de muertes al igual que prdidas e impactos
materiales, econmicos y ambientales que exceden la capacidad de la
comunidad o la sociedad afectada para hacer frente a la situacin mediante
el uso de sus propios recursos.
Fuente: United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR,) 2009
lf '
P a
ge 2
g e 6
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1. Objetivos
Objetivo Principal:
El objetivo principal de este estudio es realizar un anlisis de llanura de
inundacin y evaluacin de riesgos de un tramo de ro usando el modelo
dimensional hidrulico HEC-RAS, ArcGIS y HEC-GeoRAS que es una interface
entre el HEC-RAS y ArcGIS.
Objetivos Especficos:
B
B RASIL
Cusco, provincia de Calca, el rea de estudio es
una parte de la cuenca del ro Vilcanota, entre los
CAJAMARCA
SAN MARTIN
ECUADOR
LA LI BERTAD
ANCASH
U
ANCASH PER
PER HUANUCO
LIMANIN MADRE D
Pa cif
JU E DIOS
VELICACUSCO
HUA
NCA YACUCHO P
ic APURIMAC UNO
TUMBES
150'0"S
TUMB
AREQUIPA
LORETO O
c
ICAA
MOQUE
TA
BOLIVIA
G
ea U
C
50'0"S A
C
PIURAAMAZONAS
BRASIL n N
PIU
BR
A
LAMBAYEQUE HILE
LAMBA
CAJAMARCA
C SAN MARTIN
780000 820000 900000
LA
LIBERTAD Pilloopat
a
n
+- CHILE
C Ato J!
purirmc
-
Lake
- Reach-
o 10 40 60 Analysis
20 Kil study Area
om - Vilcanota River
_
ete
rs
980000
Page 8 .:.
::.
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Informacin General del Area de Estudio
This area represent only the 8% of all the Vilcanota river basin.
Caractersticas hidrulicas del
tramo del ro Vilcanota
L" 2 P a
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ge 9
Referencias del rea de estudio
PISAC
Vilcanota Left Bank, with very high hazard Vilcanota River channel Chimpacalca sector. Temporary protective wall built by the homeowners
against floods. who do not meet necessary conditions for their
protection.
Fuente: Ciudades sotsenibles-Pisac y Calca:
INDECI, 2005
Page 10
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Topografa: Secciones transversales
PISAC CALCA
0+20 m
1
--
15.0-
15.0Q
10.0-----+----+----+----i-- -J
o.o T-::=::_.....:!:====::!::===!
5.o
. ...:...--------,L._. 10.00-
5.00- --
=._.A,r
_,
0+00 0+20 m 0+40 m 0+60 m 0+80 m 0+100 m 0+120
0.00- 0+20 0+40m 0+60m 0+80m 0+120 0+140
_ ---
m 0+ m 0+100 m m m
00
Page 11
J
_,
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Referencias de eventos extremos
Las imgenes muestran
algunas zonas
inundadas afectados
durante un evento
extremo de enero de
2010, con un caudal
mximo de 320 m3 / s, y
tambin se puede ver la
estacin hidromtrica de
Pisac, que fue destruido
25 Enero del 2010 durante este evento
extremo
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2. Informacin Bsica
PPialgg
ee 123
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2. Informacin bsica del rea de estudio
Data disponible del rea de estudio:
LIMA
Page 14
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Land Use
El uso de la tierra se ha modificado con el
objetivo de mejorar la representatividad de
la zona de estudio.
El proceso seguido se incluyen ms
atributos para el archivo shape, como el
rea urbana y el cauce del ro Vilcanota.
Legend
LandUse
O Barren Land
cropland
-
o 3.000
Mete<s
3.0 00
Page 15 17500 18000 18500
0 0 0
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TIN
f15000 f18000 181000 184000
La Red Irregular de Triangulacin (TIN) fue
w
N
Legend
modificada con el objetivo de mejorar la resolucin
TIN
. N
profundidad definida.
f15000 f18000 181000 184000
w
Legend
TIH Mod
ified
o o
Bevation
o o
o o
o o
* -
o
0.5
-
o
4290.4400
o
4114- 4290
f15000 f18000 181000 184000
3938-4114
3762-3938
3686-3762
.
o o
o
U!Wlll o
OEM
.
Modified N
Val u e
o
Hlgh
4994
Low: 2882
o o
o o
o N
N
N
o 1 ooo e.oo
'"-
O 1.0002.000
PPaagge
e 127
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Prueba de bondad de ajuste: Kolmogov- Smirnov
DISTRIBUCION
I I I
ESTACIO DISTRIBUCION LOO DISTRIBUCION LOO PEARSON DISTRIBUCION
N' ANO N N NORMAL NORMAL N III GUMBEL
P=x 1
P= X
P; z Fz PXr}r<o P=x y
2.31 z 0.990Fz K PXr)reo
")
2.13 P=x
I
1 133. 0.024 4.18 1.00 0.000 0.024 0.01
Pr}reo 0.013 1 2.13 0.024 150.6 0.013 0.987 0.963 133. 4.18 4.46 0.011 0.012
.. ..
7 0 0
'I)
0
y Fz PXr}r<o 7
2 19 73.0 2 Pr)..,. 0.048 2.26 0.012 0.03 1.93 1.78 0.962 0.010 2 1.9
PXr)06S0.048 0.040 0.960 0.912 2.26 2.64 0.069 0.021
3 61 0 3 84.3 0.071 1.82 0.988 0.034 6 1.86 1.61 0.946 0038 0.018 3 3 0.071 144.6 0.055 0.945 0.873 84.3 1.82 2.22 0.103 0.031
19 24.0 4 73.0 0.095 1.33 0.966 0.091 0.037 1.78 1.39 0.918 0.05 0.014 4 1.8 0.095 5 0.081 0.919 0.823 73.0 1.33 1.76 0.158 0.063
4
62 0 60.5 0.909 0.004 4 6 142.8 60.5
5 5 0.119 090 0.1& 1.69 1.16 0.876 0.005 5 0.119 0.120 0.880 0.761 0.90 1.35 0.229 0.110
19 41.0
6 49.3 0.143 0.83 0.815 5 0.066 1.68 1.12 0.868 0.08 0.011 6 1.7 0.143 0 0.128 0.872 0.730 49.3 0.83 1.28 0.242 0.099
6 63 0
7 47.6 0.167 0.71 0.797 0.203 0.060 1.65 1.04 0.&5 2 0.018 7 8 0.167 140.3 0.143 0.&5 0.690 47.6 0.71 1.17 0.266 0.099
7 19 10.0 7
8 44.6 0.190 0.57 0.763 0.237 0.07 1.61 0.94 1 0.12 0.018 8 1.6 0.190 0.165 7 0.645 44.6 0.57 1.04 0.297 0.107
8 64 0
41.0 0.717 0.283 1 4 9 137.7
9 19 19.0 9 0.214 0.56 1.61 0.94 0.828 0.040 9 0.214 0.167 0.835 0.619 41.0 0.56 1.03 0.300 0.086
0.092 0.13 1.6 3
10 65 0 1 40.7 0.238 0.35 0.713 0.287 1.55 0.77 0.825 0.018 10 0.238 0.209 0.833 0.553 40.7 0.35 0.83 0.353 0.115
0.072 2 8 137.2
11 19 13.10 0 35.3 0.262 0.34 0.638 0.362 1.54 0.76 0.039 11 0.262 0.211 0.791 0.527 35.3 0.34 0.82 0.356 0.094
66 0.780 0.14 1.6 8
35.00 11 35.0 0.286 0.26 0.634 0.366 0.124 1.52 0.69 0.042 12 0.286 0.231 0.789 0.484 35.0 0.26 0.75 0.378 0.092
12 9 5 136.4
13
19 84.30 12 33.0 0.310 0.24 0.604 0.396 0.104 1.51 0.67 o.m 0.17 0.058 13 1.6 0.310 4 0.238 0.769 0.453 33.0 0.24 0.72 0.385 0.076
67
14 11.10 13 32.3 0.333 0.15 0.594 0.406 0.110 1.48 0.58 0.756 2 0.054 14 1 0.333 135.3 0.264 0.762 0.403 32.3 0.15 0.64 0.411 0.078
19
15 68 10.00 14 30.0 0.357 0.00 0.559 0.441 0.097 1.42 0.43 0.748 0.17 0.024 1 1.6 0.357 6 0.314 0.736 0.329 30.0 0.00 0.50 0.455 0.098
16 19 15.40 15 26.3 0.381 -0.09 0.501 0.499 0.108 1.38 0.33 0.720 5 0.009 5 1 0.381 135.2 0.352 0.686 0.267 26.3 -0.09 0.41 0.484 0.103
17 69 14.00 16 24.0 0.405 -0.14 0.466 0.534 0.141 1.35 0.25 0.667 0.22 0.004 16 1.5 0.405 6 0.379 0.648 0.216 24.0 -0.14 0.36 0.503 0.098
18 19 11.80 17 22.5 0.429 -0.14 0.443 0.557 0.153 1.35 0.25 0.628 0 0.028 17 5 0.429 133.4 0.379 0.621 0.192 22.5 -0.14 0.36 0.503 0.074
19
70 33.00 18 22.5 0.452 -0.28 0.443 0.557 0.153 1.28 0.06 0.600 0.22 0.025 18 1.5 0.452 3 0.455 0.621 0.093 22.5 -0.28 0.23 0.549 0.096
20
19 7.00 19 19.0 0.476 -0.35 0.390 0.610 0.129 1.23 -0.06 0.600 3 0.050 19 4 0.476 133.3 0.503 0.545 0.021 19.0 -0.35 0.16 0.574 0.098
71
21
5.60 20 17.1 0.500 -0.38 0.362 0.638 0.158 1.21 -0.11 0.523 0.24 0.045 20 1.5 0.500 2 0.522 0.497 0.022 17.1 -0.38 0.13 0.583 0.083
19
22 72
12.00 21 16.4 0.524 -0.42 0.351 0.649 0.162 1.19 -0.19 0.474 4 0.050 21 2 0.524 132.5 0.551 0.478 0.075 16.4 -0.42 0.10 0.597 0.073
7.00 22 15.4 0.548 -0.47 0.337 0.663 0.149 1.15 -0.30 0.455 0.25 0.069 22 1.5 0.548 6 0.595 0.449 0.143 15.4 -0.47 0.04 0.616 0.068
2 19
3 73 44.60 23 14.0 0.571 -0.51 0.318 0.682 0.139 1.12 -0.37 0.426 2 0.074 23 1 0.571 132.2 0.625 0.405 0.197 14.0 -0.51 0.01 0.628 0.057
0.28 1.4 8
24 19 7.30 24 13.1 0.595 -0.53 0.305 0.695 0.135 1.10 -0.43 0.384 0.070 24 0.595 0.646 0.375 0.241 13.1 -0.53 -0.01 0.636 0.041
0.12 0 8 131.3
25 74 2.50 25 12.5 0.619 -0.55 0.297 0.703 1.08 -0.47 0.355 0.063 25 0.619 0.664 0.354 0.283 12.5 -0.55 -0.03 0.643 0.024
3 0.33 1.4 3
26 19 9.30 26 12.0 0.643 -0.56 0.290 0.710 1.07 -0.49 0.335 0.046 26 0.643 0.671 0.336 0.314 12.0 -0.56 -0.04 0.646 0.003
75 0.108 3 2 129.6
27 26.30 27 11.8 0.667 -0.59 0.288 0.712 1.05 -0.56 0.318 0.047 27 0.667 3 0.697 0.329 0.364 11.8 -0.59 -0.06 0.655 0.012
19 0.091 0.37 1.3
28 76
12.50 28 11.1 0.690 -0.63 0.278 0.722 1.00 -0.68 0.311 2 0.062 28
8 0.690 128.4 0.739 0.303 0.430 11.1 -0.63 -0.10 0.670 0.020
29 9.70 29 10.0 0.714 -0.63 0.264 0.736 0.06 1.00 -0.68 0.287 0.039 29 0.714 0.739 0.261 0.453 10.0 -0.63 -0.10 0.670 0.044
19
9 0.40 1.3 5
30 77 7.00 30 10.0 0.738 -0.64 0.264 0.736 0.99 -0.72 0.247 0 0.026 30 5 0.738 127.6 0.751 0.261 0.489 10.0 -0.64 -0.11 0.674 0.064
0.055
31 19 6.00 31 9.7 0.762 -0.66 0.261 0.739 0.97 -0.77 0.247 0.40 0.017 31 1.3 0.762 2 0.767 0.249 0.529 9.7 -0.66 -0.13 0.679 0.082
0.045
32 78 17.10 32 9.3 0.786 -0.71 0.255 0.745 0.90 -0.94 0.236 0 0.041 32 5 0.786 127.6 0.819 0.233 0.605 9.3 -0.71 -0.18 0.697 0.089
0.021
33 19 16.40 33 8.0 0.810 -0.74 0.240 0.760 0.86 -1.05 0.221 0.47 0.043 33 1.2 0.810 2 0.847 0.181 0.657 8.0 -0.74 -0.20 0.706 0.103
79 0.001
34 30.00 34 7.3 0.833 -0.74 0.231 0.769 0.86 -1.06 0.173 7 0.023 3 8 0.833 125.4 0.851 0.153 0.684 7.3 -0.74 -0.21 0.708 0.126
19 0.017
35
80
35.30 35 7.2 0.&5 -0.75 0.230 0.770 0.& -1.10 0.148 0.52 0.006 4 1.2 0.857 4 0.859 0.149 0.716 7.2 -0.75 -0.21 0.710 0.147
0.025
36 19
22.50 36 7.0 7 -0.75 0.228 0.772 5 -1.10 0.144 6 0.018 35 3 0.881 124.0 0.859 0.141 0.740 7.0 -0.75 -0.21 0.710 0.171
60.50 37 7.0 0.881 0.228 0.772 0.041 0.& -1.10 0.137 0.54 36 1.2 8 0.141 7.0
37 81 -0.75 0.041 0.905 0.859 0.764 -0.75 -0.21 0.710 0.195
0.063
38 19 133.70 38 7.0 0.905 -0.79 0.228 0.772 5 -1.27 0.137 5 0.030 37 1 0.929 123.5 0.897 0.141 0.826 7.0 -0.79 -0.25 0.723 0.205
82 40.70 39 6.0 0.929 -0.80 0.216 0.784 0.085 0.& -1.35 0.137 0.57 0.040 38 1.1 0.952 4 0.912 0.103 0.864 6.0 -0.80 -0.27 0.224
39 0.729
0.109 5 4 9 122.7
40 19
83
32.30 40 5.6 0.952 -0.92 0.212 0.788 2.28 0.101 0.013 39 0.976 0.992 0.088 0.968 5.6 -0.92 -0.38 0.768 0.208
41 49.30 41 2.5 0.976 0.178 0.822 0.13 0.78 0.088 0.61 40 1.1 3 0.008 2.5
0.074 0.968 MAX
19 1 0.164
2 0.75 0.011 1 6 41 5 121.5 1 1 0.224
84
47.60 MAX MAX .
22.50 . 0.145 0.40 0.64 1.1 0 .
19 0.16 5 2 120.6
85 7.20 4 0.66 1.1 5
19
86
0.15 5 0 120.0
5 0.68 1.0 4
19
87 2 8 119.5
19 0.68 1.0 2
Page 18 88 9 7 119.3
19 0.71 1.0 0
89 3 5 118.5
19 0.75 1.0 1
90 3 0 117.1
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91
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1.0 7
Anlisis de Frecuencia de Avenidas
200
180
160
140
P max (mm)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1 10 100
PERIODO DE RETORNO (aos)
lf ' g
P a
ge2 e 19
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Anlisis de amenazas
Proces low intensity medium intensity high intensity
s
Debris flow -- D<1m D>1m
and and
v< v>
1 1 D = thickness of debris front
Static flooding h < 0.5 m 0.5 < h < m/s
2 m h >2 mm/s v = flow velocity (flood or debris flow)
h = flow depth
Dynamic flooding q < 0.5 ml-/s 0.5 < q < 2 m2/s q > 2 m2/s
Bank t < 0.5 m 0.5 < t < 2 m t2m q = specific discharge (m3/s/m) = h x v
t = extent of lateral erosion
erosion
Approach developed by Gilard (1996) and for natural hazards in Switzerland.
(BWW, BRP & BUWAL 1997) was used for flood Hazard Map Analysis.
Los criterios utilizados para la definicin de
riesgo de inundacin se presentan en detalle en
Hazard
la siguiente tabla. Probability of occurence lntensity Legend:
h: depht of flow [m]
Dlscharge Depth(m) v: curren! velocity [m/s)
1 Weak lntensity
Esta grfica muestra de la representacin de
criterio dinmico.
Page 20
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Metodologa para anlisis y evaluacin de riesgo de
Enfoque usado para el inundaciones Field Su1v1ey Dala of Topography
HEC-GeoRAS
n
HEC-RAS HEC-RAS
Aplicacin
No
Page 21
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Pre-Procesamiento
- ROJl',Pf11J
l$ C1i11
loa
PPaagge
e 222
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Aplicacin del HEC-RAS
\( Geometric Data Geometry
e::, @) 13
"v" Cross Section Data Geometry
Exrt Edit Optrons Plot
Help
Rlver. lvk:anota
Rive, Reach:
OelRow !Oion
1 Pisac-Calca
Cross Seclton
Eoordinetes
2991.3 0.02
5 5 LO RO
2979.8 B NI B
3 NIA A NIA
-
2972.4 0.03
5 7 LeltBri
Laleral
2966.5 50&96
liilil
I
4
2963.8
Contlb
CoelfJCtent 1 [,pans;c>
W
il 4 0.
Con!Jaction lo. 1 I
2960.7 1
3
Sl..-.ge
8
AruConn
. Profile 2955.8 X-Y-Z Perspective
Plot 4 Plot
2950.3 File
File Options Help
Opnons
l .!l!J
r P1ot lniial1 Aeload Dala UpsteamRS: 129203. ..:1 .! . e= e= Aeload
Reaches . 2945.3 05 ..: Data
I
Coniiions 2 Rotation Anglo
Profiles .
ThesisHe
c
Plan: Plan 01
19/0712011
V!canota River Pisac-
2940.0
O-,s11eamRS
: 1354.42 l.!.l
JThesisHe[!]Plan: Plan 19/07/201
Azimuth Angle
Calca 2 96
2935.0
2 c 01 1
Legend
HEC-RAS application, chec29k80ing
WSTr28M
geometry 296
0 WS Tr 5 aos
295 WS Tr 10
2970
0
g aos
\ 294
WS Tr 25
0
1i
> aos
ws
.!! 293
0 WS Tr 50
aos
292
0
291
0
Bank
Sta
Ground
.
WSTr 100
Lev
aos
2900 ee
Page 23
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Post-Procesamiento
Ll!m!
Water Surtu:e 1111: -it 5(10 i\os
! - -
- z,e..,,n.:111,:.e
!
_ ...- -
- !'ti!":n..-,a,
- ..
:t,4::w4ttot
- 0o........
..
:t4ttc :fil ;,n
. -
--
:
1
1
-
Water Surface TIN
-
for a 500 year
return period -1
Water Depth Grids
Velocity Grid
l\fP'a
ggee 224
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Evaluacin de riesgo de inundaciones
No
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Evaluacin de riesgo de inundaciones
Vulr11r.a bllirty
Static or Dynamic
t,1 ap
17500
0
18100
0
- 18700
0
- 190000 1,3000
l.!9.!!!.!I
Hlld Tt 100 yrs
4290- 44t'8
4114- 4290
3938-4114
37e2- 3938
O 0.5
1
Kilometer
s
OM1 2 3
Kibmefen
111000 1a..0
00
Page 26 178000
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Evaluacin de riesgo de inundaciones
No
Static or Dynamic
w
O
'87000
o
l.l!lJllll
- 2:
Haurd Tr 100 yrs
i - 1
V\ltw
Otptl, ...... . ,
:l aza-
*
H d
-
:
o o
! . . 1
:i
O 0.5
1
t<ilomeEel
'S
3
. 0051 2
J<ilomtttrs
3 4
Page 27
- .
li8ot(I
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4. Analysis and Results
PPaagge
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100
Anlisis de flujo permanente
0
Tr Inundated Discharge
900
2 Area 65.16 (m /s) 293.2
3
.
e.
800
700 -
5 169.7
1
4
399.4
4
1 336.3 469.7
.
!! 600
= 7 .
- -- --- !:.-..-
:::,-
0
2 5
495.4 6
558.6
.
-e
<(
-e
500 I_,
-
,:::
: --- !::::
; ::_:
='1'4:4'1... ,,,_:
5
3 0
526.0 1
576.0
: .,, '" 0
5 5
599.2 1
624.5
- :!= -
400 ::;; :
"
-
= i=ic-- - r ==t = - - -- ..
0.97-3
. 300
200 - - -- t, t. -
, - -- -
0
7
5
10
8
646.8
5
672.3
2
662.8
3
690.4
!
.. i
I:=
-
- r-, = ==- - .. -
- -- - 0
20 2
735.1 6
755.1
100
-- '---
,- -- -t-
.
...:.:
f t. t
f-
0
50 7
827.3 2
841.1
. o o z.,
100 " 200 300 400 50
0
600
0 3 2
Retu
rnPe - 70
0
= - i:-:
Return Periods and Area Inundation Relationship riod
(Yea 650
--
rs)
600
55
La figura de arriba muestra cmo las reas m
. 0
inundadas tiene un incremento logartmico.
-... - --i
.
f 500 --
'- t.,
450
"o 400
Q
8 ..
Y la figura de abajo muestra la dependencia lineal de la
}-
.
superficie inundada con la descarga, significa que si la . 350
300 =
=- =
- 1--
descarga se incrementa ms rea ser inundada. 25
o
0 100 20 300
-- 50 600 70
0
20
0
0
Inundated Area (Ha)
0
1
Discharge versus Flow Area
Relationship 400
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Anlisis de Mapas de Vulnerabilidad
700
-" 600
500
.: 400
,
;_ ,_ -
- -
300
et _ >-----
'
. -
-
-
200 f------
-
>-----
o 100 -
-
.." o
-
.2
I
QI
.
5 yrs lOyrs 25yrs 30yrs 50yrs - 100 yrs 200yrs 500yrs
Barren Land 2.88 6.15 8.17 8.55 8.17 75yrs 9.23 9.42 9.42
Q
. 2 yrs
Crop Land 2.21 133.68 264.28 387. 410.92 387.67 9.23 519.04 568.24 644.83
67
'
.
River 61.41 257.16 282.63 308.29 303.87 499.82 330.39 340.10 353.55
303.
Urban Area 225.55 0.00 7.30 87 22.30 19.70 325.39 37.67 41.42 43.53
.I
0.00 19.70 36.42
Vulnerability Classification for Different Year Return Period Flood
- 117000 1'0000
WW!l1
19300
0
-
4 Urban area 2 151 1 "'"
f7IOO
O
111000 117000 190000 19300
0
CP
Page 30 "
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Mapa de Peligro: Anlisis esttico
.
=
Q)
600_0
0
500.00
...
e(
.. 400.00
...
Q)
..oo 300.00
.
200.00
- 100.00
o.c 2yrs 5yrs 10 yrs 25 yrs 30 yrs 50 yrs 75 yrs 100 yrs 200 yrs 500 yrs
e 53.53 88.80 131.8 130.8 131.9 149.0 141.2 131.5 116.57 150.0
0.5-2.0 m 34_0 99_6 5 9 5 5 7 6 551.23 1
<0.5m
>2m 2 6 222.18 374_3 403.81 454.3 496.16 521.34 539.99
292.24
1 6
201.7 205.3 206.7 214.7 233.8 243.90 362.10
1 7 1 214.7 8 220.4 1
Return
8 Period-Flood Depth
5 Relationship
El rea de inundacin presenta un nivel de Peligro 118000 111000 18'000 181000 190001 193000
(static approach) entre medio a alto, mientras el nivel Hl.urd T r 100 yrs
periodos de retorno. 1
600_0 3938-
.
0 ,,u
500_0 2yrs l?ea:-3938
0 5 yrs
400.00 10 yrs
= 25 yrs
...
e 300_0
0 30 yrs
...o O 0.5 1 j 2
o 200.00 50 yrs
....
:
Q(
Kilometss
100.0 75 yrs
.-
)
0 100 yrs
0.00
200 yrs
<0_5m 0_5 - 2_0 m >2m Hazard Map Static of 100-Year Return Period
500 yrs
Page 31 Water depth (m)
Flood
L"
El grfico muestra que el area de inundacin 178000 181000 184000 187000 190000 193000
w.
legend
-;;-
400.00
5 yrs i:: 3782 3938
i::
-
e. 350.00
.. 300.00 r 10 yrs
11
.
> 250.00 ._ - 1
1 25 yrs
.
150.00
- .. - .. .. 50 yrs O 05 ii
-
1
100.00 - .
1J
..2 75 yrs t<ilomtt
.,
u.
50.00
>--
- .. 100 yrs
.
0.00
j 0.5 - 2.0 m2/s >2m2/s
.
..
200 178000 181000
o 500
de riesgo medio en ms del 50% del area total !. 400
inundada. I
11
300
1>2.0m
1
o 200 10.5-2.0m
o
u:
El grfico inferior muestra que el area de <0.Sm
111
100
Crop land
total inundada.
Land use (Crop Land)-Flood Depth Relationship
with Different Return Periods
Esto significa que existe un riesgo alto de prdidas
de cultivo por efecto de las inundaciones sobre
todo en el distrito de Calca.
400
350
o 300
250
Land use (Urban Area)-Flood Depth Relationship 11
,,o
150 O.S-2.0 m
s :
e
100
<0.Sm
o 50
,,{
1 1
45 o
o 40
1 2 yrs 5 yrs 10 yrs 25 yrs 30 yrs SO yrs 75 vrs 100 200 yrs 500 yrs
J: 35 yrs
o River
I 30 1>2.0m
11
25
1
o 20 10.5-2.0m Land use (River)-Flood Depth Relationship
Q)
o
u: 15 <0.Sm with Different Return Periods
10
5
o 2 yrs 5 yrs 10 yrs 25 yrs 30 yrs 50 yrs 75 yrs 100 yrs 200 yrs 500 yrs
300
>2.0 m2/s
o
e" 2 yrs 5 yrs 10 yrs 25 yrs 30 yrs 50 yrs 75 yrs 100 yrs 200 yrs 500 yrs
Crop Land
que existe un mayor incremento del nivel de riesgo -" Land use (Crop Land)-Specific Discharge Relationship
medio lo cual significa un mayor rieso a los o
with Different Return Periods
habitantes sobre todos los que se encuentran cerca
del ro vilcanota. 400
350
ji" 300
.-oct
200 >2.0 m2/s
with Different Return Periods -o
150
50 11 0.5 2.0 m2/s
..
o1
45 o 100
: <0.5 m2/s
40 :
50
35
! o
30
41
..
2yrs 5 yrs 10 yrs 25 yrs 30 yrs 50 yrs 75 yrs 100 vrs 200 yrs 500 yrs
25 >2.0 m2/s
<
-o
4 20 River
-o 0.5 - 2.0 m2/s
too
1
15
: <0.S m2/s
:
10
5
Land use (River)-Specific Discharge Relationship
o with Different Return Periods
2 vrs 5 vrs 10 vrs 25 vrs 30 yrs 50 vrs 75 yrs 100 vrs 200 vrs 500 vrs
Urban Area
Page 34
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5. Recomendaciones
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Recomendaciones para trabajos en el futuro
Usar topografa con alta resolucin que dar mayor precisin a los
resultados
Usar modelos de elevacin digital de alta resolucin
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Muchas gracias por su atencin
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