Using Statistical Methods for

Variable Speed Analysis

Written by Mark Slemp and Robert Skeirik

Presented by Robert Skeirik

Goal
Automatically identify alarm levels for variable speed
equipment considering:

changing vibration amplitude levels

changes in frequencies in the vibration signature

2
Other Key Points
Requirements for effective statistical models
- grouping of similar data
- elimination of bad data
- consideration of variable RPM

3
Establishing Alarm Limits

Problem Solution
Hardest part of PdM Automated process - simple
program to use

Lack required knowledge at Uses statistics to establish

onset alarm levels

Difficult to update later Easy to update as required

based on new information

4
Alarming Methods
Overall vibration

5
Alarm Types - Overall Alarm
Look at total vibration on machine

ALARM LEVEL = 0.11 IN/SEC

PEAK - RMS
OVERALL VALUE

May detect imbalance vibration (typically higher amplitudes)

6
Alarm Types - Overall Alarm

Look at total vibration on machine

ALARM LEVEL = 0.11 IN/SEC

PEAK - RMS
OVERALL VALUE

Not sensitive enough for bearing faults

(typically low amplitude signals)

7
Alarming Methods
Overall vibration
Selective Frequency Bands

8
Alarm Types - Frequency Bands

Divide spectrum in frequency bands based on the types of

mechanical faults that might appear on the machine

1X

2X
3X- 6X
BEARING BAND 1 BEARING BAND 2

9-30X RPM
30-50X RPM

9
Alarm Types - Frequency Bands

Divide spectrum in frequency bands based on the types of

mechanical faults that might appear on the machine

1X

2X
3X- 6X
BEARING BAND 1 BEARING BAND 2

9-30X RPM
30-50X RPM

10
Alarm Types - Frequency Bands

Divide spectrum in frequency bands based on the types of

mechanical faults that might appear on the machine

1X

2X
3X- 6X
BEARING BAND 1 BEARING BAND 2

9-30X RPM
30-50X RPM

11
Alarm Types - Frequency Bands

Divide spectrum in frequency bands based on the types of

mechanical faults that might appear on the machine

1X

2X
3X- 6X
BEARING BAND 1 BEARING BAND 2

9-30X RPM
30-50X RPM

12
Alarm Types - Frequency Bands

Divide spectrum in frequency bands based on the types of

mechanical faults that might appear on the machine

1X

2X
3X- 6X
BEARING BAND 1 BEARING BAND 2

9-30X RPM
30-50X RPM

13
Alarm Types - Frequency Bands

Divide spectrum in frequency bands based on the types of

mechanical faults that might appear on the machine

1X

2X
3X- 6X
BEARING BAND 1 BEARING BAND 2

9-30X RPM
30-50X RPM

14
Frequency Bands with Trend
Sub-
Harmonic 1X 2X Bearing Bearing Gears Bearing
Amplitude

1x 2x 10x
Trend of
Trend of
Bearings
Balance
.3
in/sec Alarm
.1
Time in/sec Time
(Days) (Days)

15
Statistical Composite Spectrum

VIB - Outer Race Fault

OUTER -R4A ROLL BRG. #4 - AXIAL
0.36
Route Spectrum
C C C C C 07-JUN-96 15:28

0.30 OVRALL= .1913 V-DG

PK = .1934

Outer Race Defect

LOAD = 100.0
P K V e lo c ity in In /S e c

RPM = 383.
RPS = 6.38
0.24
Modified Stat Envelope
>TMK 688TD
C=BPFO
0.18

0.12

0.06

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Frequency in Order
Label: Outer Race Defect
Priority: 2

16 RBMware
 Improving the Statistical Model
1) Group similar machines together

17
Grouping Similar Machines
Six design equivalent fans

18
Grouping Similar Machines
Six design equivalent fans

Alarm File

19
 Grouping Similar Machines
Six design equivalent fans
Plus another six

Database 1 Database 2

20
 Grouping Similar Machines
12 design equivalent fans -
combine data from different plant locations

Plant A

Database 1 Database 2

21
 Grouping Similar Machines
12 design equivalent fans -
combine data from different plant locations

Alarm File

Plant A

Database 1 Database 2

22
 Grouping Similar Machines
12 design equivalent fans
Plus 6 more in another plant

Plant A Plant B

Database 1 Database 2 Database 3

23
 Grouping Similar Machines
18 design equivalent fans -
combine data from multiple plants

Alarm File

Plant A Plant B

Database 1 Database 2 Database 3

24
 Improving the Statistical Model
1) Group similar machines together
increases population size
improved statistical model
obtain quality model sooner
standardize analysis across corporation

25
 Improving the Statistical Model
1) Group similar machines together
2) Identify and eliminate outliers

26
Identify Outliers

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

M 10
M2

M3

M5

M6

M8

M9
M1

M4

M7

27
Identify Outliers

0.25 Average
0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

M 10
M2

M3

M5

M6

M8

M9
M1

M4

M7

x = 0.11

28
Identify Outliers

0.25 Distribution
0.2 (1 x standard
deviation)
0.15

0.1

0.05 }
0

M 10
M2

M3

M5

M6

M8

M9
M1

M4

M7

x = 0.11 = 0.0247
29
Identify Outliers

0.25 Distribution
0.2 (3 x standard
deviation)
0.15

0.1

0.05
}
0

M 10
M2

M3

M5

M6

M8

M9
M1

M4

M7

x = 0.11 = 0.0247
30
Identify Outliers

0.25
Outlier
0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

M 10
M2

M3

M5

M6

M8

M9
M1

M4

M7

31
Identify Outliers

0.25
Distribution
0.2 (3 x standard
0.15
deviation)

0.1

0.05
}
0
M1 M2 M3 M4 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10

x = 0.098 = 0.011
32
Identify Outliers
0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
M1 M2 M3 M4 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10

x = 0.11 = 0.0247 x = 0.098 = 0.011

33
 Data Validity Check

1) Validity check based on individual frequency peaks

calculate average and distribution
identify and eliminate outliers (e.g. bad data)

2) Establish valid data set

- good data
- represents normal operation

3) Calculate envelope, frequency by frequency

average plus (3) standard deviation

34
 Improving the Statistical Model
1) Group similar machines together
2) Identify and eliminate outliers
3) Discrete alarm for each point orientation

35
Alarm on Position
Create point and position specific alarms

.1in/s .12 in/s

.08 in/s

.27 in/s
.23 in/s

36
 Improving the Statistical Model
1) Group similar machines together
2) Identify and eliminate outliers
3) Discrete alarm for each point orientation
4) Consider varying machine conditions
variable speed

37
 Varying Machine Condition
State-related alarm levels
Variable speed machine
vibration increase = mechanical fault
spectrum may contain fixed frequency peaks
electrical peaks (50 Hz, 60 Hz)
peaks from machine resonance
crossover vibration from surrounding machines

38
Varying Machine Conditions
State-related alarm levels
State 1 State 2 State 3
spectrum 1 spectrum 2 spectrum 5
spectrum 7 spectrum 3 spectrum 6
spectrum 9 spectrum 4 spectrum 10
spectrum 11 spectrum 8 spectrum 12
0-3,550 3,550-3,600 3,600 +
h speed
vibration increases wit

Electrical Peak
39
 Improving the Statistical Model
1) Group similar machines together
2) Identify and eliminate outliers
3) Discrete alarm for each point orientation
4) Consider varying machine conditions
variable speed
variable load

40
 Varying Machine Conditions
State-related alarm levels
State 1 State 2 State 3
spectrum 1 spectrum 2 spectrum 5
spectrum 7 spectrum 3 spectrum 6
spectrum 9 spectrum 4 spectrum 10
spectrum 11 spectrum 8 spectrum 12
90% load 100% load 110% load
h load
vibration increases wit

41
 Improving the Statistical Model
1) Group similar machines together
2) Identify and eliminate outliers
3) Discrete alarm for each point orientation
4) Consider variable RPM or load

42
Lets Look at some
Real Data
Using Statistical Methods for
Variable Speed Analysis
Written by Mark Slemp and Robert Skeirik

Presented by Robert Skeirik

Case Study
Equipment Included in Study

Motor 1111A Motor 1111B Motor 1111C Motor 1111D

Motor 1115A Motor 1115B Motor 1115C Motor 1115D

46
Data Collection Locations

MIX

MIY

MOX

MOY
MOA

47
Faults Associated With Equipment
Motor 1111A
Motor 1115A
Bearing Defect
No Faults
Motor 1111B
Motor 1115B
Bearing Defect
No Faults
Motor 1111C
Motor 1115C
Bearing Defect
Imbalance
Motor 1111D
Motor 1115D
Defect (5 Occurrences)
Bearing Defect
Misalignment

11 Diagnosable Faults
48
Point of Analysis

Not to diagnose type and severity

Not an expert system

Method to accurately and reliably screen data

Identify all developing faults
Minimize occurrence of false alarms

49
Original Alarm Limit Set
Parameter Band Alert Level Fault Level
Overall 0.6 ips 0.8 ips
Sub & 1xRPM 0.5 ips 0.7 ips
2-4xRPM 0.3 ips 0.45 ips
5-20xRPM 0.17 ips 0.3 ips
21-40xRPM 0.23 ips 0.4 ips
41-70xRPM 0.17 ips 0.3 ips
1-20 kHz 1.5 gs 3.5 gs

50
Original Diagnostic Results

Correct Calls 3 of 11 25%

Low
Missed Calls 8 of 11 75% Accuracy

Correct Screens 70 of 70 100%

High
False Alarms 0 of 70 0% Reliability

51
Correct Alarm (5) Missed Call (6) False Alarm (0)

52
Statistical Alarm Limit Calculation
Find Next Data Set

Calculate n Analysis Parameter Values

For Each Parameter :
Next Overall Parameter 1 . . . . . . . . Parameter n
Probability Distribution
Point 0.10 ips 0.09 ips 0.02 ips Mean Value
Standard Deviation
Update Current Statistics For Each Parameter

Update Statistics For Each Parameter :

Check for outliers Proposed Alert Level
Proposed Fault Level
Mean Value
Standard Deviation
Final Parameter Calculations Presented

53
Updated Statistical Values

Overall Parameter Parameter 1 Parameter n

Probability Probability
Probability Distribution
Distribution Distribution

Overall Mean Parameter Mean Parameter n Mean

Overall Standard Deviation Parameter 1 Standard Deviation Parameter n Standard Deviation
(Normal Variance) (Low Variance) (High Variance)

54
Sample Probability Distribution

STATION ID - [****]
MACHINE ID - [**********]; CLASSIFICATION - [****************]
MEASUREMENT POINT ID - [***]
5.0
Samples = 373
4.5 Mean = .528
Sigma = .422
PROBABILITY DENSITY (PERCENT)

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5
--- Alert Limit ---
1.0
--- Fault Limit ---
0.5

0
0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
[1 - 20 KHz ] G-s RMS

55
Flexible Analysis Parameters

Define independent of alarm at time of measurement

Add new parameters as deemed appropriate

120 Hz band
Vane pass

56
Statistically Calculated Alarm Limit Set

Parameter Band Alert Level Fault Level

Overall 0.238 ips 0.262 ips
Sub & 1xRPM 0.224 ips 0.247 ips
2-4xRPM 0.075 ips 0.083 ips
5-20xRPM 0.034 ips 0.038 ips
21-40xRPM 0.021 ips 0.023 ips
41-70xRPM 0.043 ips 0.048 ips
1-20 kHz 1.70 gs 1.89 gs

57
Diagnostic Results Using Statistical Alarm Limit
Set

Correct Calls 11 of 11 100%

High
Missed Calls 0 of 11 0% Accuracy

Correct Screens 47 of 70 67%

Questionable
Reliability
False Alarms 23 of 70 33%

58
Parameter Band Alarm Diagnostic
1111A 1111B 1111C 1111D 1115A 1115B 1115C 1115D
11-Mar-95
13-Apr-95
25-May-95
17-Jun-95
12-Jul-95
09-Sep-95

06-Oct-95
02-Nov-95
06-Dec-95
06-Jan-96
02-Jun-96

Correct Alarm (11) Missed Call (0) False Alarm (23)

59
Compare Parameter Band Methods
User defined limits
Statistical limits

missed half the faults

found all 11 faults
high reliability
(no false alarms)
questionable reliability
(23 false alarms - 33%)

60
External Alarm Envelope
Based on reference spectrum

Based on statistical composite spectrum

61
Envelope based on Reference

62
External Alarm Limit based on single
Reference Spectrum

Correct Calls 11 of 11 100%

High
Accuracy
Missed Calls 0 of 11 0%

Correct Screens 29 of 70 41%

Poor
Reliability
False Alarms 41 of 70 59%

63
Reference Envelope Diagnostic Results

Correct Alarm (11) Missed Call (0) False Alarm (41)

64
Statistical Envelope Construction

Create statistical composite envelope

Remove bad data (e.g. outliers)
Create discrete alarm for each position
Create discrete alarm for each operating parameter

65
Envelope based on Statistical Composite

66
Diagnostic Results Using Statistically
Generated Envelope

Correct Calls 11 of 11 100%

High
Missed Calls 0 of 11 0% Accuracy

Correct Screens 51 of 70 73%

Questionable
False Alarms 19 of 70 27% Reliability

67
Statistical Envelope Alarm Diagnostic

1111A 1111B 1111C 1111D 1115A 1115B 1115C 1115D

11-Mar-95

13-Apr-95
25-May-95
17-Jun-95
12-Jul-95
09-Sep-95

06-Oct-95
02-Nov-95
06-Dec-95
06-Jan-96
02-Jun-96

Correct Alarm (11) Missed Call (0) False Alarm (19)

68
Summary of Results

69
Question?

What would happen if we combined two

approaches on the same data set?..

70
New Approach
Scan database for points in alarm based on:

Statistically calculated parameter bands

AND

Envelope from statistical composite spectrum

71
Comparison of Best Two Methods

1111A 1111B 1111C 1111D 1115A 1115B 1115C 1115D 1111A 1111B 1111C 1111D 1115A 1115B 1115C 1115D

11-Mar-95 11-Mar-95

13-Apr-95 13-Apr-95

25-May-95 25-May-95

17-Jun-95 17-Jun-95

12-Jul-95 12-Jul-95
09-Sep-95 09-Sep-95

06-Oct-95 06-Oct-95
02-Nov-95 02-Nov-95
06-Dec-95 06-Dec-95
06-Jan-96 06-Jan-96
02-Jun-96 02-Jun-96

72
Comparison of Best Two Methods

1111A 1111B 1111C 1111D 1115A 1115B 1115C 1115D

11-Mar-95

13-Apr-95
25-May-95
17-Jun-95 1111A 1111B 1111C 1111D 1115A 1115B 1115C 1115D
12-Jul-95 11-Mar-95
09-Sep-95
13-Apr-95
06-Oct-95
25-May-95
02-Nov-95
17-Jun-95
06-Dec-95
06-Jan-96 12-Jul-95
02-Jun-96 09-Sep-95

06-Oct-95
02-Nov-95
06-Dec-95
06-Jan-96
02-Jun-96

73
Comparison of Best Two Methods
1111A 1111B 1111C 1111D 1115A 1115B 1115C 1115D
11-Mar-95

13-Apr-95
25-May-95
1111A 1111B 1111C 1111D 1115A 1115B 1115C 1115D
17-Jun-95
11-Mar-95
12-Jul-95
13-Apr-95
09-Sep-95
25-May-95
06-Oct-95
17-Jun-95
02-Nov-95
12-Jul-95
06-Dec-95
09-Sep-95
06-Jan-96
06-Oct-95
02-Jun-96
02-Nov-95
06-Dec-95
06-Jan-96
02-Jun-96

74
Comparison of Best Two Methods
1111A 1111B 1111C 1111D 1115A 1115B 1115C 1115D
11-Mar-95
13-Apr-95 1111A 1111B 1111C 1111D 1115A 1115B 1115C 1115D
11-Mar-95
25-May-95
13-Apr-95
17-Jun-95
25-May-95
12-Jul-95
17-Jun-95
09-Sep-95
12-Jul-95
06-Oct-95 09-Sep-95
02-Nov-95 06-Oct-95
06-Dec-95 02-Nov-95
06-Jan-96 06-Dec-95
02-Jun-96 06-Jan-96
02-Jun-96

75
Comparison of Best Two Methods
1111A 1111B 1111C 1111D 1115A 1115B 1115C 1115D
11-Mar-95

13-Apr-95
25-May-95
17-Jun-95
12-Jul-95
09-Sep-95

06-Oct-95
02-Nov-95
06-Dec-95
06-Jan-96
02-Jun-96

Correct Alarm (11) Missed Call (0) False Alarm (5)

76
Combined Diagnostic Results

Correct Calls 11 of 11 100%

High
Accuracy
Missed Calls 0 of 11 0%

Correct Screens 65 of 70 93%

Excellent
Reliability
False Alarms 5 of 70 7%

77
Summary
Two methods provided similar results
statistical parameter band alarms
statistical alarm envelope

Both represent improvement

statistical envelope more automatic
parameter band method requires user to have basic knowledge of
frequency analysis

78
Summary

Combining methods offered exceptional results

high accuracy
high reliability

79
Hypothesis
Envelope detects SUBSTANTIAL changes
does vibration increase violate statistical model?

Parameter bands detect SIGNIFICANT changes

does vibration increase correlate to fault type?

SIGNIFICANT and SUBSTANTIAL

likely indication of developing fault

80
Further Examination Required
Based on limited sample

Additional research will be required to

substantiate hypothesis

81