What is reliability?

Reliability is the quality concept applied

over time
Reliability engineering requires a different
tool box
Reliability data
Nearly always units X to failure, where
units are most often
Miles
Hours (days, weeks, months)
Probability distributions
Exponential
Random failure
Log-normal
Weibull
Gamma
Most common distribution
Equation

Weibull distribution

eta = scale parameter,

beta = shape parameter (or slope),
gamma = location parameter.
Weibull mean
Also known as MTBF or MTTF
Need to understand gamma function

1
mean 1


n
x
e x n 1
dx
0
Citation
Using diagrams from Reliasoft Weibull++
7.x
A few from Minitab
Shapes of Weibull
Scale of Weibull
Location of Weibull
Gamma distribution
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ProbabilityLin
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Unreliability, F (t)

5
0.0
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1
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5.0
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Tim
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Non-parametric data fit

Empirical data fit
Weibull
Failure to time

100 Shape 3.368

Scale 23.57
N 514

80

60
Percent

40

20

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Months to failure
Summary Slide
Accelerated life testing Achieving reliability
Accelerated Life Testing growth
Highly accelerated life Reliability Growth-Duane
testing Model
Multi-environment Reliability Growth-
overstress AMSAA model
MEOST, continued
Step-stress
HASS and HASA
Accelerated life testing
ReliaSoft ALTA 6.0 PRO - ALTA.ReliaSoft.com

Probability Weibull
99.00
Arrh/Weib
Data 1
90.00 400
406
F=5 | S=0
416
F=6 | S=0
50.00 426
F=6 | S=0
U n r e lia b ilit y

10.00

5.00

User's Name
Company
1.00 9/5/2006 07:01
10.00 100.00 1000.00
Time

Beta=2.9658, B=1.0680E+4, C=2.3966E-9

Accelerated Life Testing
Can be used to predict life based on
testing
A typical model looks like
Highly accelerated life testing
No predictive value
Reveals weakest portions of design
Examples:
Thermal shock
Special drop testing
Mechanical shock
Swept sine vibration
Multi-environment overstress
Derate components Robusthigh S/N
Study thermal ratio
behavior Design for
Scan maintainability
Finite element analysis Product liability
Modular designs analysis
DFM Take apart supplier
Mfg line escapes products
RMAs
FFRs
MEOST, continued
Test to failure is goal
Combined stress environment
Beyond design levels
Lower than immediate destruct level
Example:
Simultaneous
Temperature
Humidity

Vibration
Step-stress
Cumulative damage
model
Harder to relate to
reality
HASS and HASA
Screening versus sampling
Small % of life to product
Elicit infant mortality failures
Example:
Burn-in
Achieving reliability growth
Detect failure causes
Feedback
Redesign
Improved fabrication
Verification of redesign
Reliability Growth-Duane Model
ReliaSoft's RGA 6 - RGA.ReliaSoft.com

Cumulative Number of Failures vs Time

Cruder than AMSAA 10000.00

Duane
Data 1
Developmental

model
LS

1000.00

Shows same general

Cum. Number of Failures

improvement 100.00

10.00

Kim Pries
Stoneridge TED
1.00 9/12/2006 11:01
100.00 1000.00

Time

Alpha=-1.9467, b=18364.7224
 Reliability Growth-AMSAA model
ReliaSoft's RGA 6 - RGA.ReliaSoft.com

Cumulative Number of Failures vs Time

Cumulative
10000.00
Crow-AMSAA (NHPP)
Data 1
MLE

failures
1000.00

Initially very
Cum . Num ber of F ailur es

100.00
poor
Improves over
10.00
time
User Name
Company
6/22/2006 14:27
1.00
100.00 1000.00

Time

Beta=1.3304, Lambda=0.7674
Summary Slide
Effects of design Other tools
Effects of manufacturing Software reliability
Cant we predict?
Warranty
Warranty
Serial reliability
Parallel reliability
(redundancy)
Effects of design
Usually the heart of warranty issues
Counteract with robust design
Effects of manufacturing
Manufacturing can degrade reliability
Cannot improve intrinsic design issues
Cant we predict?
MIL-HDBK-217F
No parallel circuits
Electronics only
Extremely conservative
Leads to over-engineering
Excessive derating

Off by factors of at least 2 to 4

Warranty
1-dimensional
Example: miles only
2-dimensional
Example:
Miles
Years
Warranty
Non-renewing
Pro-rated
Cumulative
Multiple items
Reliability improvement
Serial reliability
Simple product of the probabilities of
failure of components
More components = less reliability

n
serial reliability xi
i 1
Parallel reliability (redundancy)
Dramatically reduces probability of failure

n
parallel reliability 1 (1 xi )
i 1
Other tools
FMEA
Fault Tree Analysis
Reliability Block Diagrams
Simulation
Software reliability
Difficult to prove
Super methods
B-method
ITU Z.100, Z.105, and Z.120
Clean room
Summary Slide
What about maintenance?
Pogo Pins
Pogo Pins (product 1)
Pogo Pins (Product 2)
Pogo Pin conclusions
Preventive vs. Predictive
What about maintenance?
Same math
Looking for types of wear and other failure
modes
 Pogo Pins
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Tim
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 Pogo Pins (product 1)
Distribution Overview Plot for ESC_ Pogo
ML Estimates-Complete Data
Table of Statistics
Probability Density F unction Weibull
Shape 0.682757
0.6 99.9 Scale 4.69196
90 Mean 6.08597
StDev 9.16024
0.4 50 Median 2.74296

P er cent
P DF

I QR 6.81390
F ailure 138
0.2 10
Censor 0
A D* 5.296
0.0
1
0 15 30 45 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 100.00
ESC_ Pogo ESC_ Pogo

Survival Function Hazard F unction

100 0.6

0.4
P er cent

Rate

50

0.2

0 0.0
0 15 30 45 0 15 30 45
ESC_ Pogo ESC_ Pogo
Pogo Pins (Product 2)
Distribution Overview Plot for 4WD_ Pogo
ML Estimates-Complete Data
Table of Statistics
Probability Density F unction Weibull
Shape 0.638638
0.6 99.9 Scale 5.25305
90 Mean 7.32163
StDev 11.9253
0.4 50 Median 2.95918

P er cent
P DF

I QR 8.01387
Failure 96
0.2 10
Censor 0
AD* 3.925
0.0
1
0 20 40 60 0.001 0.010 0.100 1.000 10.000 100.000
4WD_ Pogo 4WD_ Pogo

Survival Function Hazard F unction

100 0.6

0.4
P er cent

R ate

50

0.2

0 0.0
0 20 40 60 0 20 40 60
4WD_ Pogo 4WD_ Pogo
Pogo Pin conclusions
Very quick infant mortality
Random failure thereafter
Difficult to find a nice preventive
maintenance schedule
Frequent inspection
Preventive vs. Predictive
Preventive maintenance
Fixbefore it breaks
Statistically based intervals
Predictive maintenance
Detectanomalies
Always uses sensors
The future
Combinatorial testing
Designed experiments
Response surfaces
Analysis of variance

Analysis of covariance

Eyring models
Multiple environments