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When Bank Rate was raised by 2%, PLR was raised by 1% and
deposit rates by 1.5%
12/17/2009 Presenter:
Presenter:
Dr. Dr.
Vighneswara
IKRAM 8
Basis Risk An Illustration
Repricing Liabilities (Rs Crores) Repricing Assets(Rs Crores)
Savings Deposit 50 Call Money 50
Fixed Deposit 50 Cash Credit 40
Total 100 Total 90
Gap(-) 10
Maturity Duration
Gap Simulation Value at
Gap
Analysis Risk
Analysis
MGA distributes
interest rate sensitive
assets, liabilities and OBS
positions into a certain
number of predefined time
bands according to their
maturity(if fixed rate) or
time remaining to their next
repricing(if floating rate)
How is it done?
The risk sensitive
What is the Gap?
Objective: assets and risk
The gap is then
To improve sensitive liabilities
calculated by
the net interest are grouped into
considering the
income in the maturity buckets
difference between
short run over based on maturity
the absolute
discreet and the time until the
values of the RSAs
periods of time first possible
and RSLs.
called the gap repricing due to
RSG=RSAs-RSLs
periods. change in the interest
rates
Three Options:
A) RSA>RSL= Positive Gap
B) RSL>RSA= Negative Gap
C) RSL=RSA= Zero Gap
Declining Interest
Rates Maintain a Negative gap
12/17/2009 Presenter:
Presenter:
D2
r.4Vighneswara
Dr. IKRAM 2
Examine the impact of the following changes
12/17/2009 Presenter:
Presenter:
D2
r.5Vighneswara
Dr. IKRAM 2
1% increase in short-term rates
Ex p e cte d Ba la n ce S h e e t fo r Hyp o th e tica l Ba n k
Asse ts Yie ld L ia b ilitie s Co st
Rate sensitive $ 500 9.0% $ 600 5.0%
Fixed rate Non $ 350 11.0% $ 220 6.0%
earning $ 150 $ 100
$ 920
Equity
$ 80
To ta l $ 1,000 $ 1,000
3
NII = Gap x r
Where,
Consider the Following Illustration of two banks which have a same Gap
Ratio;
Parameters Bank A Bank B
RSA 2900 1005
RSL 2000 695
GAP 900 310
GAP Ratio 1.45 1.45
NII 830 390
Decrease in Interest 0.5 0.5
Change in NII (GAP * Change in R) 4.5 1.55
%change in NII (Change in NII /NII) 0.54% 0.40%
Inference: Gap level is more helpful than the Gap Ratio in taking
P/1o7s/2i0ti0o9ns
12
12/17/2009 Presenter: Dr. IKRAM 30
3
Maturity Gap Method Mathematical
Expressions .. Rate Adjusted Gap
Liabi Amount Duration Interest Increased Decreased Assets Amount Duratio Interest Increased Decreased
lities n
(crore) in Mnths Rate(%) Int. Int. (crore) in Rate(%) Int. Int.
Rate(%) Rate(%) Mnths Rate(%) Rate(%)
Equity 200 Cash 200
ST 1800 5.5 11.5 13.5 9.5 ST 1800 2.75 12.5 14.5 10.5
Depos Loans
LT 2500 23.7 15 15 15 LT 2000 23 16.5 16.5 16.5
Depos Loans
Others 500 11.5 11 13 9 Investm 1000 10.5 13.5 15.5 11.5
5000 5000
Int. 637 683 591 Int 690 746 634
Expe Income
NII 53 63 43
NIM 0.010 0.0126 0.0086
6
12/17/2009 Presenter: Dr. IKRAM 38
Duration Gap Analysis
Using the Duration analysis to assess the sensitivity of
the market value of Assets and Liabilities.
Ds x S = ( D x A ) - ( D L x L ) 7
Where,
Ds = Duration Gap / Duration of Surplus
DA = Duration of Assets, DL = Duration of
Liabilities A = Assets L = Liabilities
S = Surplus / Gap
New MV = Current MV + MV 9
-Advantages -Disadvantages
Forward looking
Accuracy depends on quality
Dynamic of data, strength of the model
and validity of assumptions
Lessens the role of crisis
management Time consuming
Increases the value of
Huge investment in computer
strategic planning
Requires highly skilled
Enhances capability of analysis
Personnel
Interpretation easy
Analysis paralysis
Timing of cash flows captured
accurately
* The ability of these types of models to capture this type of risk will vary with the
so12/17/2009
1p2/h1i7s/2ti0c0a9tion of the model aPnDr.
Presenter: rdese thnteer:mDra. nVingehnresinwarwahich4
IKRAM
Benefits from IRR management