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PRINCIPLES OF

MACROECONOMICS
TENTH EDITION
PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

CASE FAIR OSTER


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PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

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Unemployment,
Inflation, and
Long-Run Growth
7
CHAPTER OUTLINE
Unemployment
Measuring Unemployment
Components of the Unemployment Rate
The Costs of Unemployment
Inflation
The Consumer Price Index
PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

The Costs of Inflation


Long-Run Growth
Output and Productivity Growth
Looking Ahead

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Unemployment

Measuring Unemployment

employed Any person 16 years old or older (1) who works for
pay, either for someone else or in his or her own business for 1
or more hours per week, (2) who works without pay for 15 or
more hours per week in a family enterprise, or (3) who has a
job but has been temporarily absent with or without pay.

unemployed A person 16 years old or older who is not


PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

working, is available for work, and has made specific efforts to


find work during the previous 4 weeks.

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Unemployment

Measuring Unemployment

not in the labor force A person who is not looking for work
because he or she does not want a job or has given up looking.

labor force The number of people employed plus the number


of unemployed.
PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

labor force = employed + unemployed

population = labor force + not in labor force

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Unemployment

Measuring Unemployment

unemployment rate The ratio of the number of people


unemployed to the total number of people in the labor force.

unemployed
unemploymentrate=
employed+unemployed
PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

labor force participation rate The ratio of the labor force to


the total population 16 years old or older.

laborforce
laborforceparticipationrate=
population

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Unemployment

Measuring Unemployment

TABLE 7.1 Employed, Unemployed, and the Labor Force, 19502009


(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Labor Force
Population Participation Unemployment
16 Years Labor Rate Rate
Old or Over Force Employed Unemployed (Percentage (Percentage
(Millions) (Millions) (Millions) (Millions) Points) Points)
1950 105.0 62.2 58.9 3.3 59.2 5.3
PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

1960 117.2 69.6 65.8 3.9 59.4 5.5


1970 137.1 82.8 78.7 4.1 60.4 4.9
1980 167.7 106.9 99.3 7.6 63.8 7.1
1990 189.2 125.8 118.8 7.0 66.5 5.6
2000 212.6 142.6 136.9 5.7 67.1 4.0
2009 235.8 154.1 139.9 14.3 65.4 9.3

Note: Figures are civilian only (military excluded).

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Unemployment

Components of the Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rates for Different Demographic Groups

TABLE 7.2 Unemployment Rates by Demographic Group, 1982 and 2010

Years November 1982 June 2010


Total 10.8 9.5
White 9.6 8.6
PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

Men 20+ 9.0 8.9


Women 20+ 8.1 7.1
Both sexes 1619 21.3 23.2
African American 20.2 15.4
Men 20+ 19.3 17.4
Women 20+ 16.5 11.8
Both sexes 1619 49.5 39.9

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Unemployment

Components of the Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rates in States and Regions

TABLE 7.3 Regional Differences in Unemployment, 1975, 1982, 1991, 2003 and 2010

1975 1982 1991 2003 2010


U.S. avg. 8.5 9.7 6.7 6.0 9.7
Cal. 9.9 9.9 7.5 6.7 12.4
Fla. 10.7 8.2 7.3 5.1 11.7
PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

Ill. 7.1 11.3 7.1 6.7 10.8


Mass. 11.2 7.9 9.0 5.8 9.2
Mich. 12.5 15.5 9.2 7.3 13.6
N.J. 10.2 9.0 6.6 5.9 9.7
N.Y. 9.5 8.6 7.2 6.3 8.3
N.C. 8.6 9.0 5.8 6.5 10.3
Ohio 9.1 12.5 6.4 6.1 10.7
Tex. 5.6 6.9 6.6 6.8 8.3

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Unemployment

Components of the Unemployment Rate

Discouraged-Worker Effects

discouraged-worker effect The decline in the measured


unemployment rate that results when people who want to work
but cannot find jobs grow discouraged and stop looking, thus
dropping out of the ranks of the unemployed and the labor force.
PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

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E C O N O M I C S I N PRACTI C E

A Quiet Revolution: Women Join the Labor Force

As women began joining the


labor force in greater numbers
in the 1970s and 1980s, their
wages relative to mens wages
actually fell.
Most economists attribute this
decline to the fact that less
experienced women were
PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

entering the labor force,


pointing out the importance of
correcting for factors such as
experience and education when we analyze labor markets.
If you are interested in learning more about the economic history of American
women, read the book Understanding the Gender Gap: An Economic History
of American Women by Harvard University economist Claudia Goldin.

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Unemployment

Components of the Unemployment Rate

The Duration of Unemployment

TABLE 7.4 Average Duration of Unemployment, 19702009


Weeks Weeks Weeks
1970 8.6 1984 18.2 1997 15.8
1971 11.3 1985 15.6 1998 14.5
1972 12.0 1986 15.0 1999 13.4
PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

1973 10.0 1987 14.5 2000 12.6


1974 9.8 1988 13.5 2001 13.1
1975 14.2 1989 11.9 2002 16.6
1976 15.8 1990 12.0 2003 19.2
1977 14.3 1991 13.7 2004 19.6
1978 11.9 1992 17.7 2005 18.4
1979 10.8 1993 18.0 2006 16.8
1980 11.9 1994 18.8 2007 16.8
1981 13.7 1995 16.6 2008 17.9
1982 15.6 1996 16.7 2009 24.4
1983 20.0

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Unemployment

The Costs of Unemployment

Some Unemployment Is Inevitable

When we consider the various costs of unemployment, it is


useful to categorize unemployment into three types:

Frictional unemployment
PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

Structural unemployment

Cyclical unemployment

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Unemployment

The Costs of Unemployment

Frictional, Structural, and Cyclical Unemployment

frictional unemployment The portion of unemployment that


is due to the normal turnover in the labor market; used to
denote short-run job/skill matching problems.

structural unemployment The portion of unemployment


that is due to changes in the structure of the economy that
PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

result in a significant loss of jobs in certain industries.

natural rate of unemployment The unemployment rate that


occurs as a normal part of the functioning of the economy.
Sometimes taken as the sum of frictional unemployment rate
and structural unemployment rate.

cyclical unemployment Unemployment that is above


frictional plus structural unemployment.
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Unemployment

The Costs of Unemployment

Social Consequences

The costs of unemployment are neither evenly distributed


across the population nor easily quantified.

The social consequences of the Depression of the 1930s are


perhaps the hardest to comprehend. Few emerged from this
PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

period unscathed.

At the bottom were the poor and the fully unemployed, about
25 percent of the labor force. Even those who kept their jobs
found themselves working part-time.

Many people lost all or part of their savings as the stock


market crashed and thousands of banks failed.

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Inflation

The Consumer Price Index

consumer price index (CPI) A price index computed each


month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics using a bundle that is
meant to represent the market basket purchased monthly
by the typical urban consumer.
PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

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Inflation

The Consumer Price Index


PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

FIGURE 7.1 The CPI Market Basket


The CPI market basket shows how a typical consumer divides his or her money among various goods
and services.
Most of a consumers money goes toward housing, transportation, and food and beverages.
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Inflation

The Consumer Price Index


TABLE 7.5 The CPI, 19502009
Percentage Percentage Percentage
Change Change Change
in CPI CPI in CPI CPI in CPI CPI
1950 1.3 24.1 1970 5.7 38.8 1990 5.4 130.7
1951 7.9 26.0 1971 4.4 40.5 1991 4.2 136.2
1952 1.9 26.5 1972 3.2 41.8 1992 3.0 140.3
1953 0.8 26.7 1973 6.2 44.4 1993 3.0 144.5
1954 0.7 26.9 1974 11.0 49.3 1994 2.6 148.2
1955 0.4 26.8 1975 9.1 53.8 1995 2.8 152.4
1956 1.5 27.2 1976 5.8 56.9 1996 3.0 156.9
PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

1957 3.3 28.1 1977 6.5 60.6 1997 2.3 160.5


1958 2.8 28.9 1978 7.6 72.6 1998 1.6 163.0
1959 0.7 29.1 1979 11.3 65.2 1999 2.2 166.6
1960 1.7 29.6 1980 13.5 82.4 2000 3.4 172.2
1961 1.0 29.9 1981 10.3 90.9 2001 2.8 177.1
1962 1.0 30.2 1982 6.2 96.5 2002 1.6 179.9
1963 1.3 30.6 1983 3.2 99.6 2003 2.3 184.0
1964 1.3 31.0 1984 4.3 103.9 2004 2.7 188.9
1965 1.6 31.5 1985 3.6 107.6 2005 3.4 195.3
1966 2.9 32.4 1986 1.9 109.6 2006 3.2 201.6
1967 3.1 33.4 1987 3.6 113.6 2007 2.8 207.3
1968 4.2 34.8 1988 4.1 118.3 2008 3.9 215.3
1969 5.5 36.7 1989 4.8 124.0 2009 -0.4 214.5

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Inflation

The Consumer Price Index

producer price indexes (PPIs) Measures of prices that producers


receive for products at all stages in the production process.

The indexes are calculated separately for various stages in the


production process.

The three main categories are finished goods, intermediate materials,


PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

and crude materials, although there are subcategories within each of


these categories.

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Inflation

The Costs of Inflation

During inflations, most pricesincluding input prices like wagestend


to rise together, and input prices determine both the incomes of
workers and the incomes of owners of capital and land.

So inflation by itself does not necessarily reduce ones purchasing


power.
PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

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E C O N O M I C S I N PRACTI C E

The Politics of Cost-of-Living Adjustments

In the last few years many


state governments in the
United States have begun to
see the costs associated with
retiring state workers
escalate as the number of
retirees has grown.
For many of these public-
PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

sector retirees, pensions


have been tied to the cost of
living.

No Cost-of-Living Increase for State Retirees in July


The Baltimore Sun

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Inflation

The Costs of Inflation

Inflation May Change the Distribution of Income

real interest rate The difference between the interest rate


on a loan and the inflation rate.
PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

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Inflation

The Costs of Inflation

Administrative Costs and Inefficiencies

There may be costs associated even with anticipated


inflation. One is the administrative cost associated with
simply keeping up.

Public Enemy Number One?


PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

Economists have debated the seriousness of the costs of


inflation for decades.

No matter what the real economic cost of inflation, people do


not like it.

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Long-Run Growth

output growth The growth rate of the output of the entire economy.

per-capita output growth The growth rate of output per person in


the economy.

productivity growth The growth rate of output per worker.


PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

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Long-Run Growth

Output and Productivity Growth


PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

FIGURE 7.2 Output per Worker Hour (Productivity), 1952 I2010 I


Productivity grew much faster in the 1950s and 1960s than since.

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Long-Run Growth

Output and Productivity Growth


PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

FIGURE 7.3 Capital per Worker, 1952 I2010 I


Capital per worker grew until about 1980 and then leveled off somewhat.

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Looking Ahead

This ends our introduction to the basic concepts and problems of


macroeconomics.

The first chapter of this part introduced the field; the second chapter discussed
the measurement of national product and national income; and this chapter
discussed unemployment, inflation, and long-run growth.
PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

We are now ready to begin the analysis of how the macroeconomy works.

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REVIEW TERMS AND CONCEPTS

consumer price index (CPI) producer price indexes (PPIs)


cyclical unemployment productivity growth
discouraged-worker effect real interest rate
employed structural unemployment
frictional unemployment unemployed
labor force unemployment rate
labor force participation rate 1. labor force = employed + unemployed
PART II Concepts and Problems in Macroeconomics

natural rate of unemployment 2. population = labor force + not in labor force


unemployed
not in the labor force 3. unemployment rate
employed unemployed
output growth
labor force
per-capita output growth 4. labor force participation rate
population

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