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Counting Statistics
Please Read: Chapters 3 (all 3 parts),
8, and 26 in Doyle
Types of Radiation
Charged Particle Radiation
Electrons
b particles
Can be easily
Heavy Charged Particles stopped/shielded!
a particles
Fission Products
Particle Accelerators
Uncharged Radiation
Electromagnetic Radiation
g-rays
More difficult to
x-rays
shield against!
Neutrons
Fission, Fusion reactions
Photoneutrons
Penetration Distances for Different
Forms of Radiation
as
bs
gs
ns
Ge Detector
Ideal Detector for Detection of Radiation
Radiation Ideal Detector
a Thin Semiconductor Detectors
Proportional Counters
b Organic Scintillators
Geiger Counters
Proportional Counters
g Inorganic Scintillators
Thick Semiconductor Detectors
neutrons Plastic Scintillators
Proportional Counters (He, BF3)
Lithium Glass Scintillators
Excellent table on Page 61 shows numerous different technologies used in
safeguards
Counting Statistics
Three Specific Models:
1. Binomial Distribution generally applicable to all
constant-p processes. Cumbersome for large
samples
Px p 1 p
n! x nx
n x ! x!
Winners:
3,4,5, or 6
P = 4/6 or 2/3
p = 2/3
n =10
x pn
2
6
3
Some Properties of the
Binomial Distribution
n
It is normalized: Px 1
x 0
x pn
Standard Deviation
Predicted variance
n 2
2 x x Px
x 0
Standard Deviation
var iance
is a typical value for x x
For the Binomial Distribution:
Px px 1 p
n! nx
n x ! x!
where n = number of trials and p = success probability
Predicted Variance: Standard Deviation:
n 2
2 x x Px
x 0 x 1 p
np 1 p x 1 p
For our Previous Example
p = 2/3 n = 10
x np 6 2
3
x 1 p
20 1
2
2.22
3 3
2 2.22 1.49
The Poisson Distribution
Provided p << 1
Px
pn e pn
x
x!
pn x
Px
x e
x x
x!
For the Poisson Distribution
n
Px 1
x 0
Predicted Mean: x x Px
x 0
x pn
2
Predicted Variance: n
2 x x Px
x 0
pn x
Standard Deviation: x
Example of the Application
of Poisson Statistics
Is your birthday today?
1
p
365
x
x ex x pn 2.74
Px
x!
P4
2.74 e
4 2.74
0.152
4 3 2
Discrete Poisson Distribution
Gaussian (Normal) Distribution
p << 1
Binomial Poisson
x l arg e
Poisson Gaussian
x x
2
n
Px 1
Px
1
e 2x
2x x 0
x pn 2 x x
Example of Gaussian Statistics
What is the predicted distribution in the number of people
with birthdays today out of a group of 10,000?
1
p n 10000 x 27.4
365
x 27.4 2
Px
1
e 54.8
2 27.4
x 5.23
Distribution Gaussian Distribution
The Universal Gaussian Curve
to f(to)
0 0
0.674 0.500
1.00 0.683
1.64 0.900
1.96 0.950
2.58 0.990
Summary of Statistical Models
Predicted Variance: 2 x
Standard Deviation: x
CAUTION!!
We may apply x only if x
represents a counted number of
radiation events
1. Counting Rates
2. Sums or Differences of counts
3. Averages of independent counts
4. Any Derived Quantity
The Error Propagation Formula
Given: directly measured counts
(or other independent variables)
x, y, z,
for which the associated standard
deviations are known to be
x, y, z,
x y
2
x y
u
Sums or Differences of Counts
u=x+y or u = x - y
2
u u
2
Recall: 2u 2x 2y
x y
u u
1 1
x x
u u
1 1
y y
2u 2x 2y
u 2x 2y x y
Example of Difference of Counts
total = x = 2612
background = y = 1295
net = u = 1317
u 2612 1295
u 3907 62.5
x 11367
r 0.36 / s
t 300 s
2 2
R N1 N 2 R
2
2
N1 N 2 5
2 7.32 10
R N1 N 2
2
N1 N 2 R
R 3
8.56 10 R R R 0.014
R R
R = 1.643 0.014
Average Value of Independent Counts
Sum: = x1 + x2 + x3 + + xN
2x1 2x 2 2x N x1 x 2 x N
Average: x
N
Nx x
x
N N N N
Single measurement: x x
1 1
Improvement Factor:
N N
For a single measurement based
on a single count:
Fractional error:
x x 1
x x x
Fractional
10% 3.16% 1%
Error
Limits of Detection
In many cases within non-proliferation, you
are required to measure sources that have a
small signal with respect to background
sources of radiation
Thus, we need to assess the minimum
detectable amount of a source that can be
reliably measured.
Lets look at an example of testing the limits
of detection
Limits of Detection
Two basic cases: No Real Activity Present
Real Activity Present
NS N T N B
N s Counts from source
N T Measured Counts
N B Counts from background
2N s 2N T 2N B
Limits of Detection No Source
Goal: Minimize the number of false positives (i.e., dont want to holdup many
containers that do not contain anything interesting)
2Ns 2NT 2N B
2NT 2N B
2Ns 22N B
Ns 2 N B 2 N B if only fluctuatio ns from counting statistics
Want to set critical counting level (LC) high enough such that the probability
that a measurement Ns that exceeds Lc is acceptably small. Assuming
Gaussian distribution, we are only concerned with positive deviations from
the mean. If we were to accept a 5% false positive rate (1.645 or 90% on
distribution), then
LC 1.645 NS 2.326 N B
Limits of Detection Source Present
Goal: Minimize the number of false negatives (i.e., dont want to let many
containers that contain radioactive materials get through). Let ND be the
minimum net value of NS that meets this criterion. We can then determine our
lower critical set point. Lets assume an acceptable 5% false negative rate.
N D LC 1.645 N D
But , N D N B , we can use the approximat ion
N D 2 N B
N D LC 2.326 N B
N D 4.653 N B
ND
a min imum det ectable activity
fT
f radiation yield per decay
absolute det ection efficiency
T measuremen t time
Two Interpretations of Limits of
Detectability
LC = lower limit that is set to ensure a 5%
false-positive rate
Conservation of energy:
Eli + Ea = Q = 2.31 MeV
Conservation of momentum:
m Li v Li m a v a
2m Li E Li 2m a E a
Q MeV
6
Li n He a
3
4.78
3
He n3 H p 0.765
X n, fission ~ 200
Detectors Based on the Boron Reaction
1. The BF3 proportional tube
3. Boron-loaded scintillator
The BF3 Tube
In reactor fuel, Pu-240 signal dominates over Pu-238 and Pu-242 due to
abundance
Neutron Coincidence Counting
In neutron coincidence counting, the primary quantity
determined is the effective amount of Pu-240, which
represents a weighted sum of the three even numbered
isotopes
m240eff a m238 m240 c m242
Coefficients for contributions from Pu-238 and Pu-242
are determined by other means, such as knowledge of
burnup of reactor fuel. Without additional information,
calculation will have errors but will give a good
estimate of Pu mass due to relative abundance of the
three isotopes. Generally, a 2.52, c 1.68
Neutron Coincidence Counting
In order to determine the total amount of Pu, mPu,
the isotopic mass fractions (R) must be known.
These can be easily determined through mass-
spectroscopy or gamma-ray spectroscopy, and is
then used to calculate the quantity
240
Pu eff aR 238 R 240 cR 242
m 240eff
m Pu 240
Pu eff
NCC Technique
Utilize He-3 detectors, which can moderate and detect
spontaneous fission neutrons
He-3 detectors usually embedded in neutron moderating
material to further slow down neutrons
Increases detection efficiency
Most common measurement is the simple (2-neutron)
coincidence rate, referred to as doubles
If other materials present in the material contribute to neutron signal, or
impact neutron multiplication, other effects may become significant,
producing errors
Generally carried out on relatively pure or well characterized materials,
such as Pu-oxides, MOX fuel pins and assemblies
NCC Counters
NCC Sources of Uncertainty
Counting statistics (random)
Can be a significant issue since efficiency can be
low
Calibration parameters and uncertainties
associated with reference materials
(systematic)
Correction for multiplication effects, detector
dead time, other neutron emission (systematic)
Nuclear data
NCC Parameters to Consider
1. Spontaneous fission rate
2. Induced fission
3. (a,n) reaction rate
4. Energy spectrum of (a,n) neutrons
5. Spatial variation of multiplication
6. Spatial variation of detection efficiency
7. Energy spectrum effects on efficiency
8. Neutron capture in the sample
9. Neutron die-away time in the detector
Clearly, there can be more unknowns than can be determined in conventional NCC
NCC Parameters
We want to determine 1,2,3
4 and 5 can be determined with proper use of
modeling and simulation
6 and 7 can be determined through proper
calibration
8 and 9 are usually unknown, but in general,
are of minor consequence
Traditional NCC can end up indeterminate
only 2 equations, but three unknowns
Neutron Multiplicity Measurements
In neutron multiplicity counting (NMC), one utilizes
triple coincidence rates (in addition to single and
double counting rates) to provide a third
measurement such that all parameters can be
determined
Thus, we are solving three equations with three
unknowns solution is self contained and complete
One significant advantage of NMC is that there is no
need for careful calibration with Pu standards
Also, can measure samples where there may be significant
uncertainties in composition
Design of NMC
Maximize detection efficiency
Minimize signal processing
time
Minimize detector die-away
time to decrease accidental
coincidences
Minimize geometry effects to
efficiency
Minimize spectral effects on
efficiency
Advantages of NMC
Greater accuracy in Pu mass determination
Self-multiplication and (a,n) rates are directly
determined
Calibration does not necessarily require
representative standards
Measurement time on the order of a few thousand
seconds, shorter than the 10,000s typical of NCC
Higher efficiency NMC systems can provide even
shorter measurement times with improved accuracy
Disadvantages of NMC
Cost
More floor space required
Some other techniques can provide shorter
measurement times
Some biases can remain if there is a high
degree of uncertainty in measured samples
Running out of He-3
Examples
In-Plant NMC measurement system
Examples
30-gallon drum measurement system
Examples
High efficiency neutron counter