Project Risk Management Process

Risk Management
Plan

Identifikasi Risiko

Analisis Risiko
(Kualitatif & Kuantitatif)

Risk Respons Plan

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Quantitative Risk Assessment

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Quantify the Risk
Perform quantitative risk analysis is the process of
numerically analyzing the effect of identified risks
on overall project objectives
Input Tools and Techniques Output
Risk management Data gathering and Project document
plan representation updates
Cost management techniques
plan Quantitative risk
Schedule analysis techniques
management plan Expert judgment
Risk register
Enterprise
environmental factor
Organizational
process assets

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Quantitative Processes
Prepare for Analysis
Perform Analysis
Update Risk Register & Create Risk Reports

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Prepare for Analysis
As with most project management activities, preparation is important to
success. In this step, the project manger gathers and reviews all of the
materials needed to perform the risk quantification analysis.
Identify high items coming out of qualitative process
Review Risk Management Plan
Roles and responsibilities for conducting risk management activities,
risk budget and schedule risk activities all play an important part of
quantitative analysis. You should be starting to put together a list of
individuals who will need to be involved with the analysis.
Review Project Management Plan
The project cost management and schedule management plans are
important data to have available during analysis. The project
manager needs to have this information readily available when
facilitating risk quantification discussions

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Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Perform a number of tasks in order to develop a strong,
objective analysis of the risks potentially impacting the
project. This analysis usually performs by using a software.
Improve Probability Estimates
Determine probability distribution
Gather Three-Point Estimates
Improve Impact Estimates
Perform Decision Tree Analysis
Perform Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Analysis
Perform Simulation (Monte Carlo)

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Probability Distribution

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3 Point Estimate (PERT)
One common risk is the mis-estimation of schedule/cost.
One of the best methods of improving estimates is by using
PERT.
We can use this for both schedule and cost Work with the
experts to determine the Optimistic (O), Most Likely (M),
and Pessimistic (P) values for the cost/schedule for each of
the identified high-risk activities.

Formula = (P+4M+O)/6

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Three Point Estimates

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PERT Formula

te
a 4m b te = activity expected time
6
var
b a
2

6 var = activity variation

Z
X Te Z = value in tabel normal standard
X = targeted time
VAR Te = project expected time
VAR = total project variation

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Normal Table

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Expected Monetary Value Analysis

Impact Expected Monetary Value

WBS Probability
(USD) (USD)

A 25% -1000 -250

B 50% -500 -250

C 10% +2000 +200

T o t a l EVM -300

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Decision Tree Analysis

Failure : Probability=10%
New Car Impact= $15,000
Initial cost of buying the new car=
$20,000 Pass : Probability=90%
Decision: Which Impact= $000
car would you buy?
The new car or the
old car? Failure : Probability=70%
Old Car: Impact= $10,000
Initial cost of buying the old car=
$15,000 Pass : Probability=30%
Impact= $000

New Car $20,000+($15,000*10%)+($000*90%)= $21,500

Old Car $15,000+($10,000*70%)+($000*30%)= $22,000

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Monte Carlo Simulation

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Update Risk Register & Create Risk
Report
Develop a prioritized list of quantified risks
Develop the total risk score for the project
Documented list of non-critical, non-top risks
Develop a list of the possible project completion
dates and costs with their confidence levels
(This task is possible if you used simulation
software.)

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Critical Success Factors
Success in achieving the objectives of quantitative risk
analysis depends explicitly on at least the factors:
Prior Risk Identification and Qualitative Risk Analysis
Appropriate Project Model
Commitment to Collecting High-Quality Risk Data
Unbiased Data
Overall Project Risk Derived from Individual Risks

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