Avian Influenza and its

economic impact

kellykat64
Avian Influenza Update

 What is Avian Influenza?

 Why all the concern?

What is Avian Influenza?
 The H5N1 AI virus mainly affects domestic & wild
birds
 The AI is closely related to influenza viruses that
cause annual “flu” outbreaks among humans
 AI viruses can mutate rapidly and able to evade
human immune systems
 H5N1 AI virus very lethal to animals and humans
 - 55 countries affected, 38 new in 2006
 - estimated 250 million birds killed
 - 256 lab-confirmed human cases with 151
deaths in 8 countries – a 59% mortality rate
How is “AI” spread?
 Animal & human populations in close proximity
 - farm animals and pets in/under/next to houses
 - live animal markets (many species from many countries)

 Poor agricultural practices

 - inadequate infection control on farms
 - poultry excrement used in agriculture (e.g. fed to pigs)

 Poor food hygiene

 - food preparation practices
 - consumption of raw/undercooked meat

 Frequent travel/trade involving humans and birds

 - movement of people/animals among farms
 - legal and illegal animal trade
 - wild bird migration
Is a Pandemic Possible?
1847
1850
1850
42 yrs
1889
1900
1900 29 yrs
1918 30 – 40 years cycle
1950
39 yrs
1950 1957
1968 11 yrs
2000

2000 No Pandemic for > 35 years

Is it Deja Vu all over again? - the
1918 Pandemic
 Three epidemic waves in close
succession
 March 1918 Sept 1918 Feb 1919
 Estimated 50 -100 million deaths world-
wide
 In the U.S.:
 10 million hospitalizations
 2 million deaths
Could AI cause a pandemic?
Requirements for H5N1:
pandemic flu:
Yes
2. Novel virus

3. Ability to replicate in
humans and cause
serious damage
Yes
4. Ability to pass
efficiently from person
to person Not yet
“Take Home” Lessons

 To-date: H5N1 principally an “animal” based

infection
 Spreading of virus appears linked to a combination of
bird migration and unregulated “bird trade”
 Effective response needs to be “cross-sectoral”
spanning animal and human health
 Early detection and rapid response to outbreaks
essential for containment
 An “informed public” and adoption of “low risk
behaviors” key
 National “leadership” is critical
International Response
 WHO and FAO providing international
leadership
 International Partnership for Avian and
Pandemic Influenza key forum for international
coordination
 $1.9 billion pledged by international
community at Beijing Conference –January
2006
 U.S. pledged $334 million – and is actively
working in more than 50 countries to contain
AI
International AI Strategy

 Goal: to contain and mitigate the effect

of an outbreak of pandemic influenza

 Objectives:
 prevent and contain H5N1 outbreaks in
animals
 prevent animal-to-human infections
 prepare for a human influenza pandemic
International AI Strategy
Key principles:
 an emergency response
 use existing platforms for efficiency
 support WHO, FAO/OIE as the lead technical organizations
 work closely across the USG
 cross-sector approach bridging animal and human health

Tactical Pillars:
 Preparedness and Planning
 Early Warning Surveillance & Diagnosis
 Rapid Response and Containment
 Behavior Change Communications & Advocacy
 Stockpiling and Deployment of key commodities
Poverty and Newly Emergent
Diseases
The Chicken that Lays the Golden Egg
Overview

 Household Economics and Avian

Influenza.

 TheRole of Poverty in the Emergence

and Spread of AI.

 Time for a “Transformational” Strategy.

General Observations

 Inthe past year more than 4,000 AI

outbreaks have been reported to OIE

 Ofthese an estimated 75% have been in

backyard or “mom and pop” farms
General Observations

 These small-farm holders largely fall into

the lowest economic quintiles

 Poultryfarming make significant

contributions to household:
 Nutrition
 Livelihood
The Viet Nam Example*

In Viet Nam
 ½ of all households – rural and urban – keep
chickens
 In rural areas 7/10 households – a total of 8
million HHs – own chickens
 Average flock size is 16 birds (4 hens, 1 cock,
and 11 growers and chicks)
 Only 1% of flocks consist of more than 100
birds
The Viet Nam Example*
 Chickens mostly kept as backyard flocks by small
holders with an average per capita income of less than
100 USD per year

 A flock of 12 hens yield a month income of around 18

USD through the sale of eggs and birds

 Based on an initial investment of 2.50 USD for the

purchase of a hen and 0.65 USD required for a
“fraction of a cock” the annual return to “capital
investment” is nearly 700%
The Viet Nam Example*

 In addition to the “high rate of return” – a

further advantage of investing in poultry
is the flexibility to partition the investment
in small amounts of cash throughout the
year, as needed.
The Viet Nam Example*

 Ata national level cessation of “back

yard” farming in Viet Nam would lead to
a lost income of 550 million USD per
year, or 5% of agricultural GDP, or 2.5
million “full time” jobs at minimum rural
wage rate
The Viet Nam Example*

 Applying these findings, even partially,

across the 4,000 outbreaks recorded
over the past year highlights the
important contribution poultry rearing
makes to the economic and nutritional
welfare to the poor.
A Double Edged Sword

 Conclusion 1: for reasons of equity and

economic efficiency it is important that
the socio-economic impact of AI control
measures be assessed before applied.
A Double Edged Sword

 Conclusion 2: this very attractiveness

has contributed to an explosion of
poultry rearing to meet the nutritional
and economic needs of ever expanding
populations
The China Syndrome
 InChina in 1969 there were an estimated 50
million poultry being raised to feed a
population of 750 million.

 By 1999 this number increased to 15 billion

 In China, and elsewhere in the region this

dramatic increase in poultry farming was
largely on non-industrial farms following
traditional animal husbandry practices
The China Syndrome

 The mixture of high populations of

people and poultry has created a
cauldron of “emergent infectious
diseases” where there is the increased
probability that poultry viruses – such as
H5N1 – can infect humans and give rise
to new pandemic strains.
 Newly Identified Infectious Diseases
and Pathogens
SARS  Avian Influenza
 2004
 2003
H5N1 (AI A virus)  Nipah Virus
 1999
 1997
Kaposi’s sarcoma virus
 1996  New variant Creutzfelt-Jacob
 1995 disease
Hantavirus
 1994
Guanarito virus  1993
 Savia virus; Hendra virus
 1992
Hepatitis E; human herpesvirus6  Vibrio choerae 0139
1991
 1989
 1988
 Hepatitis C
 1983
 HIV
Recomendation

 While much of the public and political

discussion on how best to respond to AI
has been dominated by “emergency
responses” – which are of critical
importance – these strategies will not be
sufficient to lower risk of a pandemic
influenza from actually happening
Recomendation

 Shortof reversing the size of the global

population – we need to ask how the
animal husbandry and market place
practices that are driving the emergence
of new human pathogens can
themselves be transformed
Recomendation

 Byfocusing exclusively on building a

protective shield of vaccines, drugs and
early warnings – we will do little to limit
the emergence of newer and deadlier
pathogens
Recomendation

 What we do risk is making influenza and

other zoonotic diseases a scourge
inflicted on those who can’t afford or
access vaccines and drugs

….. In short, diseases of the poor – as

has happened with malaria, tuberculosis
and HIV/AIDS